Saturday, March 16, 2019

Updated Championship Week Predictions: Vehicle


While there weren't any bids clinched yesterday, we had plenty of -- wait for it -- Madness!  Like Caesar, six 1-seeds (Kansas State, LSU, Nevada, Sam Houston State, VCU, Virginia) and seven 2-seeds (Arizona State, Marquette, North Carolina, North Carolina A&T, Purdue, UC Santa Barbara, Utah Valley) met their demise on the Ides of March, so we have to go with "Vehicle" by Berwyn, Illinois's own Ides of March as today's song.  There were no friendly strangers in the black sedan for those 1- and 2-seeds.  That's for damn sure.  Today's gonna be a hell of a fun day of college basketball, so while you're downing Irish car bombs and pints of green beer, don't forget to peer up at the TV every now and then.  But first, here's what happened in yesterday's Championship Week action and what we have to look forward to today:
  • In the ACC semis, 4-seed Florida State upset 1-seed Virginia, 79-69, while 3-seed Duke beat archrival 2-seed UNC in a 74-73 thriller.  Both are locks for the tournament, and the Seminoles will be playing in their 17th NCAA Tournament and third in a row, while the Blue Devils will be playing in their 43rd NCAA Tournament and 24th in a row.
  • In the Big 12 semis, 5-seed Iowa State dropped 1-seed Kansas State, 63-59, while 10-seed West Virginia's run ended at the hands of 3-seed Kansas, 88-74.  Both teams are locks for the NCAA Tournament.  The Cyclones will be playing in their 20th and first since 2017, and the Jayhawks will be playing in their 48th and 30th in a row.
  • In the Big East semis, 1-seed Villanova needed OT to take down 4-seed Xavier, 71-67, and 3-seed Seton Hall beat 2-seed Marquette, 81-79, in a back-and-forth brawl, with three ejections and four foul outs.  Both teams are locks for the NCAA Tournament (Villanova already was, but Seton Hall is now too with the win).  The Wildcats will be defending their national title in their 39th trip to the NCAA Tournament and 7th in a row.  The Pirates will be playing in their 13th NCAA Tournament and 4th in a row.
  • In the Big Sky semis, 1-seed Montana demolished 4-seed Weber State, 78-49, while 3-seed Eastern Washington beat 7-seed Southern Utah, 77-61.  The Grizzlies will be playing for their 12th trip to the Big Dance and second in a row, while the Eagles will be playing for their 3rd trip and first since 2015.
  • In the Big West semis, 1-seed UC Irvine survived 5-seed Long Beach State, 75-67, while 2-seed UC Santa Barbara fell to 3-seed Cal State Fullerton, 64-58.  The Anteaters will be playing for their 2nd NCAA Tournament berth and first since 2015, while the Titans will be playing for their 4th and second in a row.
  • In the Conference USA semis, 1-seed Old Dominion held on for a 61-59 win over 5-seed UAB, and 2-seed Western Kentucky beat 3-seed Southern Miss, 70-59.  When they play in the final today, the Monarchs will be playing for their 12th NCAA Tournament berth and first since 2011, while the Hilltoppers will be playing for their 24th berth and first since 2013.
  • In the miggity-miggity-miggity-miggity-miggity-miggity-MAC quarterfinals, 1-seed Buffalo escaped with an 85-81 win over 5-seed Central Michigan, while 3-seed Bowling Green also escaped with a 4-point win, 71-67, over 7-seed Northern Illinois, clinching its first trip to the MAC title game since 2002.  The Bulls are a lock for the NCAA Tournament and will be playing in their 4th NCAA Tournament and second in a row, and the Falcons will be playing for their 5th NCAA Tournament berth and first since 1968.
  • In the MEAC semis, 1-seed Norfolk State beat 4-seed Howard, 75-69, while 3-seed North Carolina Central topped 2-seed North Carolina A&T.  When they face off in today's title game, the Spartans will be playing for their 2nd trip to the Big Dance and first since 2012, when they beat 2-seed Missouri as a 15-seed in the first round.  Man, Missouri is just horrible in March.  But I digress.  The Eagles will be playing for their 4th NCAA Tournament berth and third in a row.
  • In the Mountain West semis, 1-seed Nevada was upset by 4-seed San Diego State, 65-56.  2-seed Utah State stomped 3-seed Fresno State, 85-60.  When they meet in the championship game today, the Aztecs will be playing for their 13th NCAA Tournament berth and second in a row, while Aggies should be in the field no matter what now, but regardless, they will be playing in their 21st NCAA Tournament and first since 2011.
  • In the Pac-12 semis, 1-seed Washington held off 5-seed Colorado, 66-61.  2-seed Arizona State was upset in OT by 6-seed Oregon, 79-75.  The Huskies are a lock for the NCAA Tournament and will be playing in their 17th tournament and first since 2011.  The Ducks need to win to go to their 16th tournament and first since 2017.
  • In the Southland semis, 1-seed Sam Houston State was upset by 4-seed New Orleans, 79-76.  Somewhere, Ervin Johnson -- not to be confused with Earvin Johnson -- is smiling.  The Privateers will be playing for their 6th NCAA Tournament berth and first since 2017.  In the other semi, 2-seed Abilene Christian squeaked past 3-seed Southeastern Louisiana, 69-66.  The Wildcats will be playing for their first trip to the Big Dance since making the jump to D-1 in the 2013-2014 season.
  • In the SWAC semis, 1-seed Prairie View A&M beat 4-seed Grambling State, 81-71, and 2-seed Texas Southern topped 6-seed Alabama State, 80-66.  When these archrivals meet, the Panthers will be playing for their 2nd NCAA Tournament berth and first since 1998, while the Tigers will be playing for their 9th berth and third in a row. 
  • In the wiggity-wiggity-wiggity-wiggity-wiggity-wiggity-WAC semis, 1-seed New Mexico State beat 4-seed UT Rio Grande Valley, 79-72, while 2-seed Utah Valley was dropped by 3-seed Grand Canyon, 78-74.  The Aggies will be playing for their 25th trip to the Big Dance and third in a row, while the Antelopes will be playing for their first ever trip.
  • In the AAC quarterfinals, 1-seed Houston spanked 9-seed UConn, 84-45, 2-seed Cincinnati beat 10-seed SMU, 82-74, 5-seed Memphis downed 4-seed UCF, 79-55, and 6-seed Wichita State upset 3-seed Temple, 80-74.
  • In the A-10 quarterfinals, 1-seed VCU was upset by 8-seed Rhode Island, 75-70, 2-seed Davidson topped 10-seed St. Joseph's, 70-60, 4-seed St. Bonaventure beat 5-seed George Mason, 68-57, and 6-seed St. Louis upset 3-seed Dayton, 64-55.
  • In the Big Ten quarterfinals, 1-seed Michigan State beat 8-seed Ohio State, 77-70. 2-seed Purdue was upset by 7-seed Minnesota, 75-73, proving once again that Purdue cannot be trusted in March.  3-seed Michigan beat up on 6-seed Iowa, 74-53, and 4-seed Wisconsin narrowly beat 13-seed Nebraska, 66-62, to end the Cornhuskers' cinderella hopes.
  • In the SEC quarterfinals, the dumpster fire that is 1-seed LSU was upset by 8-seed Florida, 76-73, to the chagrin of other bubble teams.  2-seed Kentucky destroyed 10-seed Alabama, 73-55, 3-seed Tennessee beat 6-seed Mississippi State, and 5-seed Auburn dropped 4-seed South Carolina, 73-64.
  • In the Sun Belt quarterfinals, 4-seed Texas State beat 8-seed South Alabama, 79-67, while 3-seed Georgia Southern downed 7-seed Louisiana-Monroe, 81-67.
  • We have an astounding 14 bids up for grabs today.
  • The last of the conference tournaments starts today -- the Ivy League, which has been dealing with some shit this week -- and 20 tournaments have games, including 14 finals and 6 semifinals.  We have 26 games over 14+ hours, with the first games tipping off at 11 a.m. Eastern and the last game tipping off at Midnight Eastern.  Erin Go Bragh!
  • Bubble teams that won yesterday:  Florida, Minnesota, Seton Hall, Utah State
  • Bubble teams that lost yesterday:  Alabama, Arizona State, Iowa, Ohio State, Temple, VCU, Xavier
With that, here are the tournaments starting today, the tournaments with games today, bids up for grab today, who has already clinched an automatic berth, and my predictions for the remaining conference tournaments.

Tournaments starting today
-Ivy League

Tournaments with games today
-AAC
-ACC
-America East
-Atlantic 10
-Big 12
-Big East
-Big Sky
-Big Ten
-Big West
-Conference USA
-Ivy League
-MAC
-MEAC
-Mountain West
-Pac-12
-SEC
-Southland
-Sun Belt
-SWAC
-WAC

Bids up for grabs today (all times Eastern)
-America East:  (3) UMBC at (1) Vermont (11 a.m.; ESPN2)
-MEAC:  (1) Norfolk State vs. (3) North Carolina Central (1:00 p.m.; ESPN2) 
-Big East:  (1) Villanova vs. (3) Seton Hall (5:30 p.m.; Fox)
-Big 12:  (3) Kansas vs. (5) Iowa State (6 p.m.; ESPN)
-Mountain West:  (2) Utah State vs. (4) San Diego State (6 p.m.; CBS)
-SWAC:  (1) Prairie View A&M vs. (2) Texas Southern (6 p.m.; ESPN2)
-MAC:  (1) Buffalo vs. (3) Bowling Green (7:30 p.m.; ESPN2)
-Big Sky:  (1) Montana vs. (3) Eastern Washington (8 p.m.; ESPNU)
-ACC:  (3) Duke vs. (4) Florida State (8:30 p.m.; ESPN)
-Conference USA:  (1) Old Dominion vs. (2) Western Kentucky (8:30 p.m.; CBSSN)
-Southland:  (2) Abilene Christian vs. (4) New Orleans (9:30 p.m.; ESPN2)
-WAC:  (1) New Mexico State vs. (3) Grand Canyon (10 p.m.; ESPNU)
-Pac-12:  (1) Washington vs. (6) Oregon (10:30 p.m.; ESPN)
-Big West:  (1) UC Irvine vs. (3) Cal State Fullerton (11:59 p.m.; ESPN2)

Already clinched automatic berths (I will add in parentheses the NCAA tournament appearances for each school, including the bid just clinched, and for conferences whose tournaments have not yet ended, I'll list the date of the championship game)
-AAC (March 17)
-ACC (March 16)
-America East (March 16)
-Atlantic 10 (March 17)
-Atlantic Sun:  Liberty (4)
-Big 12 (March 16)
-Big East (March 16)
-Big Sky (March 16)
-Big South:  Gardner-Webb (1)
-Big Ten:  (March 17)
-Big West (March 16)
-Colonial:  Northeastern (9)
-Conference USA (March 16)
-Horizon:  Northern Kentucky (2)
-Ivy League (March 17)
-MAAC:  Iona (14)
-MAC (March 16)
-MEAC (March 16)
-Missouri Valley:  Bradley (9)
-Mountain West (March 16)
-Northeast Conference:  Fairleigh Dickinson (6)
-Ohio Valley:  Murray State (17)
-Pac-12 (March 16)
-Patriot League:  Colgate (3)
-SEC (March 17)
-Southern Conference:  Wofford (5)
-Southland (March 17)
-Summit:  North Dakota State (4)
-Sun Belt (March 17)
-SWAC (March 16)
-WAC (March 16)
-West Coast:  St. Mary's (10)

Remaining Tournaments (all times are Eastern)

AAC (March 14-17; Memphis)
3/16 – Semifinals
3 p.m. (ESPN2) (1) Houston vs. (5) Memphis.  Predicted winner:  Houston
5:30 p.m. (ESPN2) (2) Cincinnati vs. (6) Wichita State.  Predicted winner:  Cincinnati
3/17 – Finals
3 p.m. (ESPN) (1) Houston vs. (2) Cincinnati.  Predicted winner:  Houston

ACC (March 12-16; Charlotte)
3/16 – Finals
8:30 p.m. (ESPN) (3) Duke vs. (4) Florida State.  Predicted winner:  Duke

America East (March 9, 12, 16; campus of higher seeds)
3/16 – Finals
11 a.m. (ESPN2) (3) UMBC at (1) Vermont.  Predicted winner:  Vermont

Atlantic 10 (March 13-17; Brooklyn)
3/16 – Semifinals
1 p.m. (CBSSN) (4) St. Bonaventure vs. (8) Rhode Island.  Predicted winner:  St. Bonaventure 
3:30 p.m. (CBSSN) (2) Davidson vs. (6) St. Louis.  Predicted winner:  Davidson
3/17 – Finals
1 p.m. (CBS) (2) Davidson vs. (4) St. Bonaventure.  Predicted winner:  Davidson

Big 12 (March 13-16; Kansas City)
3/16 – Finals
6 p.m. (ESPN) (3) Kansas vs. (5) Iowa State.  Predicted winner:  Kansas

Big East (March 13-16; New York)
3/16 – Finals
5:30 p.m. (Fox) (1) Villanova vs. (3) Seton Hall.  Predicted winner:  Villanova

Big Sky (March 13-16; Boise)
3/16 – Finals
8 p.m. (ESPNU) (1) Montana vs. (3) Eastern Washington.  Predicted winner:  Montana

Big Ten (March 13-17; Chicago)
3/16 – Semifinals
1 p.m. (CBS) (1) Michigan State vs. (4) Wisconsin.  Predicted winner:  Michigan State
3:30 p.m. (CBS) (3) Michigan vs. (7) Minnesota.  Predicted winner:  Michigan
3/17 – Finals
3:30 p.m. (CBS) (1) Michigan State vs. (3) Michigan.  Predicted winner:  Michigan State

Big West (March 14-16; Anaheim)
3/16 – Finals
11:59 p.m. (ESPN2) (1) UC Irvine vs. (3) Cal State Fullerton.  Predicted winner:  UC Irvine

Conference USA (March 13-16; Frisco, TX)
3/16 – Finals
8:30 p.m. (CBSSN) (1) Old Dominion vs. (2) Western Kentucky.  Predicted winner:  Old Dominion

Ivy League (March 16-17; New Haven, CT)
3/16 – Semifinals
12:30 p.m. (ESPNU) (1) Harvard vs. (4) Penn.  Predicted winner:  Harvard
3 p.m. (ESPNU) (2) Yale vs. (3) Princeton.  Predicted winner:  Yale
3/17 – Finals
12 p.m. (ESPN2) (1) Harvard vs. (2) Yale.  Predicted winner:  Yale

MAC (March 11, 14-16; first round at campus of higher seed and remaining rounds in Cleveland)
3/16 – Finals
7:30 p.m. (ESPN2) (1) Buffalo vs. (3) Bowling Green.  Predicted winner:  Buffalo

MEAC (March 11-16; Norfolk, VA)
3/16 – Final
1:00 p.m. (ESPN2) (1) Norfolk State vs. (3) North Carolina Central.  Predicted winner:  Norfolk State

Mountain West (March 13-16; Las Vegas)
3/16 – Finals
6 p.m. (CBS) (2) Utah State vs. (4) San Diego State.  Predicted winner:  Utah State

Pac-12 (March 13-16; Las Vegas)
3/16 – Finals
10:30 p.m. (ESPN) (1) Washington vs. (6) Oregon.  Predicted winner:  Washington

SEC (March 13-17; Nashville)
3/16 – Semifinals
1 p.m. (ESPN) (5) Auburn vs. (8) Florida.  Predicted winner: Auburn
3:30 p.m. (ESPN) (2) Kentucky vs. (3) Tennessee.  Predicted winner: Tennessee
3/17 – Finals
1 p.m. (ESPN) (3) Tennessee vs. (5) Auburn.  Predicted winner:  Tennessee

Southland (March 13-16; Katy, TX)
3/16 – Finals
9:30 p.m. (ESPN2) (2) Abilene Christian vs. (4) New Orleans.  Predicted winner:  Abilene Christian

Sun Belt (March 12, 14-17; New Orleans)
3/16 – Semifinals
4 p.m. (ESPN+) (1) Georgia State vs. (4) Texas State.  Predicted winner: Texas State
6:30 p.m. (ESPN+) (2) UT Arlington vs. (3) Georgia Southern.  Predicted winner: Georgia Southern
3/17 – Finals
2 p.m. (ESPN) (3) Georgia Southern vs. (4) Texas State.  Predicted winner:  Texas State

SWAC (March 12, 15-16; quarterfinals at campus of higher seed, remaining games in Birmingham, AL)
3/16 – Finals
6 p.m. (ESPN2) (1) Prairie View A&M vs. (2) Texas Southern.  Predicted winner:  Prairie View A&M

WAC (March 14-16; Las Vegas)
3/16 – Finals
10 p.m. (ESPNU) (1) New Mexico State vs. (3) Grand Canyon.  Predicted winner:  New Mexico State

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