Thursday, March 14, 2019

Updated Championship Week Predictions: Just Like Me


One more bid was clinched yesterday, and today's song is "Just Like Me" by Paul Revere & The Raiders in honor of the Colgate Raiders' return to the NCAA Tournament for the first time since I was in high school.  Here's what happened in yesterday's Championship Week action and what we have to look forward to today:
  • In the Patriot League championship, 1-seed Colgate knocked off 2-seed Bucknell, 94-80, preventing the Bison from going to three NCAA Tournaments in a row for the first time in program history.  Instead, the Raiders are going to the Big Dance for the 3rd time and first time since 1996.  Somewhere, Adonal Foyle is going crazy -- probably the Bay Area.
  • In the first half of the MEAC quarterfinals, the top two seeds won, but it was a little too close for comfort -- though any time I can get a Jim J. Bullock reference into a post, it's a good day.  Top seed Norfolk State beat 9-seed South Carolina State 78-73, while 2-seed North Carolina A&T needed OT to beat 7-seed Coppin State, 82-79.  The second half of the quarters are this evening.
  • In the second round of the ACC, 8-seed NC State came back from a 16-point halftime deficit to beat 9-seed Clemson, 59-58, in what was likely an NCAA Tournament at-large berth elimination game.  Elsewhere, 5-seed Virginia Tech, 6-seed Syracuse, and 7-seed Louisville advanced to today's quarterfinals.
  • In the first round of the A-10, 11-seed Richmond and 12-seed George Washington advanced to today's second round.
  • In the first round of the Big 12, 8-seed TCU squandered a 20-point second-half lead to go down by two to 9-seed Oklahoma State with about a minute left, before scoring the last five points for a 73-70 win, saving the Horned Frogs' NCAA Tournament hopes.  10-seed West Virginia upset 7-seed Oklahoma, 72-71, as what appeared to be a game-tying three at the buzzer for OU ended up being a two.
  • In the first round of the Big East, 7-seed St. John's and 8-seed Providence advanced to today's quarterfinals.
  • In the first round of the Big Sky, 6-seed Montana State, 7-seed Southern Utah, 9-seed Sacramento State advanced to today's quarterfinals.
  • In the first round of the Big Ten, 11-seed Illinois and 14-seed Northwestern went to OT in a first round game made for the United Center.  The Illini came out on top.  13-seed Nebraska beat 12-seed Rutgers.  The second round is today.  Please don't fuck this up, Hoosiers.
  • In the first round of Conference USA, 5-seed UAB, 6-seed Marshall, 8-seed Louisiana Tech, and 10-seed North Texas advanced to today's quarterfinals -- exactly as I predicted.
  • In the first round of the Mountain West, 6-seed Air Force, 7-seed New Mexico, and 9-seed Boise State advanced to today's quarterfinals.
  • In the first round of the Pac-12, 5-seed Colorado, 6-seed Oregon, 7-seed UCLA, and 8-seed USC advanced to today's quarterfinals.
  • In the first round of the SEC, 11-seed Texas A&M and 12-seed Missouri advanced to today's second round.
  • In the first round of the Southland, 5-seed Lamar and 7-seed Central Arkansas advanced to today's second round.  Somewhere Scottie Pippen is nodding in approval.
  • No bids are up for grabs today.
  • Three of the remaining four tournaments start today -- AAC, Big West, and the wiggity-wiggity-wiggity-wiggity-wiggity-wiggity-WAC -- and 17 tournaments have games, including 11 quarterfinals.  We have 58 games over 13 hours, with the first games tipping off at Noon Eastern and the last games tipping off at 11:30 p.m. Eastern.  Get excited.
  • Bubble teams that won yesterday:  NC State, St. John's, Syracuse, TCU
  • Bubble teams that lost yesterday:  Clemson, Oklahoma
With that, here are the tournaments starting today, the tournaments with games today, bids up for grab today, who has already clinched an automatic berth, and my predictions for the remaining conference tournaments.

Tournaments starting today
-AAC
-Big West
-WAC

Tournaments with games today
-AAC
-ACC
-Atlantic 10
-Big 12
-Big East
-Big Sky
-Big Ten
-Big West
-Conference USA
-MAC
-MEAC
-Mountain West
-Pac-12
-SEC
-Southland
-Sun Belt
-WAC

Bids up for grabs today (all times Eastern)
-None 

Already clinched automatic berths (I will add in parentheses the NCAA tournament appearances for each school, including the bid just clinched, and for conferences whose tournaments have not yet ended, I'll list the date of the championship game)
-AAC (March 17)
-ACC (March 16)
-America East (March 16)
-Atlantic 10 (March 17)
-Atlantic Sun:  Liberty (4)
-Big 12 (March 16)
-Big East (March 16)
-Big Sky (March 16)
-Big South:  Gardner-Webb (1)
-Big Ten:  (March 17)
-Big West (March 16)
-Colonial:  Northeastern (9)
-Conference USA (March 16)
-Horizon:  Northern Kentucky (2)
-Ivy League (March 17)
-MAAC:  Iona (14)
-MAC (March 16)
-MEAC (March 16)
-Missouri Valley:  Bradley (9)
-Mountain West (March 16)
-Northeast Conference:  Fairleigh Dickinson (6)
-Ohio Valley:  Murray State (17)
-Pac-12 (March 16)
-Patriot League:  Colgate (3)
-SEC (March 17)
-Southern Conference:  Wofford (5)
-Southland (March 17)
-Summit:  North Dakota State (4)
-Sun Belt (March 17)
-SWAC (March 16)
-WAC (March 16)
-West Coast:  St. Mary's (10)

Remaining Tournaments (all times are Eastern)

AAC (March 14-17; Memphis)
3/14 – First Round
1 p.m. (ESPNU) (8) South Florida vs. (9) UConn.  Predicted winner:  South Florida
3 p.m. (ESPNU) (5) Memphis vs. (12) Tulane.  Predicted winner:  Memphis
8 p.m. (ESPNU) (7) Tulsa vs. (10) SMU.  Predicted winner:  Tulsa
10 p.m. (ESPNU) (6) Wichita State vs. (11) East Carolina.  Predicted winner:  Wichita State
3/15 – Quarterfinals
1 p.m. (ESPN2) (1) Houston vs. (8) South Florida.  Predicted winner:  Houston
3 p.m. (ESPN2) (4) UCF vs. (5) Memphis.  Predicted winner:  UCF
8 p.m. (ESPNU) (2) Cincinnati vs. (7) Tulsa.  Predicted winner:  Cincinnati
10 p.m. (ESPNU) (3) Temple vs. (6) Wichita State.  Predicted winner:  Wichita State
3/16 – Semifinals
3 p.m. (ESPN2) (1) Houston vs. (4) UCF.  Predicted winner:  Houston
5:30 p.m. (ESPN2) (2) Cincinnati vs. (6) Wichita State.  Predicted winner:  Cincinnati
3/17 – Finals
3 p.m. (ESPN) (1) Houston vs. (2) Cincinnati.  Predicted winner:  Houston

ACC (March 12-16; Charlotte)
3/14 – Quarterfinals
12 p.m. (ESPN) (1) Virginia vs. (8) NC State.  Predicted winner:  Virginia
2:30 p.m. (ESPN) (4) Florida State vs. (5) Virginia Tech.  Predicted winner:  Virginia Tech
7 p.m. (ESPN) (2) North Carolina vs. (7) Louisville.  Predicted winner:  Louisville
9:30 p.m. (ESPN) (3) Duke vs. (6) Syracuse.  Predicted winner:  Duke
3/15 – Semifinals
7 p.m. (ESPN) (1) Virginia vs. (5) Virginia Tech.  Predicted winner:  Virginia
9:30 p.m. (ESPN) (3) Duke vs. (7) Louisville.  Predicted winner:  Duke
3/16 – Finals
8:30 p.m. (ESPN) (1) Virginia vs. (3) Duke.  Predicted winner:  Duke

America East (March 9, 12, 16; campus of higher seeds)
3/16 – Finals
11 a.m. (ESPN2) (3) UMBC at (1) Vermont.  Predicted winner:  Vermont

Atlantic 10 (March 13-17; Brooklyn)
3/14 – Second Round
12 p.m. (NBCSN) (8) Rhode Island vs. (9) LaSalle.  Predicted winner:  Rhode Island
2:30 p.m. (NBCSN) (5) George Mason vs. (12) George Washington.  Predicted winner:  George Mason
6 p.m. (NBCSN) (7) Duquesne vs. (10) St. Joseph's.  Predicted winner:  Duquesne
8:30 p.m. (NBCSN) (6) St. Louis vs. (11) Richmond.  Predicted winner:  St. Louis
3/15 – Quarterfinals
12 p.m. (NBCSN) (1) VCU vs. (8) Rhode Island.  Predicted winner:  VCU
2:30 p.m. (NBCSN) (4) St. Bonaventure vs. (5) George Mason.  Predicted winner:  George Mason
6 p.m. (NBCSN) (2) Davidson vs. (7) Duquesne.  Predicted winner:  Davidson
8:30 p.m. (NBCSN) (3) Dayton vs. (6) St. Louis.  Predicted winner:  Dayton
3/16 – Semifinals
1 p.m. (CBSSN) (1) VCU vs. (5) George Mason.  Predicted winner:  VCU
3:30 p.m. (CBSSN) (2) Davidson vs. (3) Dayton.  Predicted winner:  Dayton
3/17 – Finals
1 p.m. (CBS) (1) VCU vs. (3) Dayton.  Predicted winner:  VCU

Big 12 (March 13-16; Kansas City)
3/14 – Quarterfinals
12:30 p.m. (ESPN/ESPN2) (4) Baylor vs. (5) Iowa State.  Predicted winner:  Iowa State
2:30 p.m. (ESPN/ESPN2) (1) Kansas State vs. (8) TCU.  Predicted winner:  Kansas State
7 p.m. (ESPN/ESPN2) (2) Texas Tech vs. (10) West Virginia.  Predicted winner:  Texas Tech
9 p.m. (ESPN/ESPN2) (3) Kansas vs. (6) Texas.  Predicted winner:  Kansas
3/15 – Semifinals
7 p.m. (ESPN/ESPN2) (1) Kansas State vs. (5) Iowa State.  Predicted winner:  Kansas State
9 p.m. (ESPN/ESPN2) (2) Texas Tech vs. (3) Kansas.  Predicted winner:  Kansas
3/16 – Finals
6 p.m. (ESPN) (1) Kansas vs. (2) Kansas State.  Predicted winner:  Kansas

Big East (March 13-16; New York)
3/14 – Quarterfinals
12 p.m. (FS1) (1) Villanova vs. (8) Providence.  Predicted winner:  Butler
2:30 p.m. (FS1) (4) Xavier vs. (5) Creighton.  Predicted winner:  Xavier
7 p.m. (FS1) (2) Marquette vs. (7) St. John's.  Predicted winner:  Marquette
9:30 p.m. (FS1) (3) Seton Hall vs. (6) Georgetown.  Predicted winner:  Seton Hall
3/15 – Semifinals
6:30 p.m. (FS1) (4) Xavier vs. (8) Butler.  Predicted winner:  Butler
9:30 p.m. (FS1) (2) Marquette vs. (3) Seton Hall
3/16 – Finals
5:30 p.m. (Fox) (2) Marquette vs. (8) Butler.  Predicted winner:  Marquette

Big Sky (March 13-16; Boise)
3/14 – Quarterfinals
2 p.m. (ELEVEN) (1) Montana vs. (9) Sacramento State.  Predicted winner:  Montana
4:30 p.m. (ELEVEN) (4) Weber State vs. (5) Portland State.  Predicted winner:  Weber State
7:30 p.m. (ELEVEN) (2) Northern Colorado vs. (7) Southern Utah.  Predicted winner:  Northern Colorado
10 p.m. (ELEVEN) (3) Eastern Washington vs. (6) Montana State.  Predicted winner:  Montana State
3/15 – Semifinals
7:30 p.m. (ELEVEN) (1) Montana vs. (4) Weber State.  Predicted winner:  Montana
10 p.m. (ELEVEN) (2) Northern Colorado vs. (6) Montana State.  Predicted winner:  Northern Colorado
3/16 – Finals
8 p.m. (ESPNU) (1) Montana vs. (2) Northern Colorado.  Predicted winner:  Montana

Big Ten (March 13-17; Chicago)
3/14 – Second Round
12:30 p.m. (BTN) (8) Ohio State vs. (9) Indiana.  Predicted winner:  Indiana
3 p.m. (BTN) (5) Maryland vs. (13) Nebraska.  Predicted winner:  Maryland
7 p.m. (BTN) (7) Minnesota vs. (10) Penn State.  Predicted winner:  Penn State
9:30 p.m. (BTN) (6) Iowa vs. (11) Illinois.  Predicted winner:  Iowa
3/15 – Quarterfinals
12:30 p.m. (BTN) (1) Michigan State vs. (9) Indiana.  Predicted winner:  Michigan State
3 p.m. (BTN) (4) Wisconsin vs. (5) Maryland.  Predicted winner:  Maryland
7 p.m. (BTN) (2) Purdue vs. (10) Penn State.  Predicted winner:  Purdue
9:30 p.m. (BTN) (3) Michigan vs. (6) Iowa.  Predicted winner:  Michigan
3/16 – Semifinals
1 p.m. (CBS) (1) Michigan State vs. (5) Maryland.  Predicted winner:  Michigan State
3:30 p.m. (CBS) (2) Purdue vs. (3) Michigan.  Predicted winner:  Michigan
3/17 – Finals
3:30 p.m. (CBS) (1) Michigan State vs. (3) Michigan.  Predicted winner:  Michigan State

Big West (March 14-16; Anaheim)
3/14 – Quarterfinals
3 p.m. (Fox Sports West Prime Ticket) (1) UC Irvine vs. (8) UC Riverside.  Predicted winner:  UC Irvine
5:30 p.m. (Fox Sports West Prime Ticket) (4) Hawaii vs. (5) Long Beach State.  Predicted winner:  Hawaii
9 p.m. (Fox Sports West Prime Ticket) (3) Cal State Fullerton vs. (6) UC Davis.  Predicted winner:  Cal State Fullerton
11:30 p.m. (Fox Sports West Prime Ticket) (2) UC Santa Barbara vs. (7) Cal State Northridge.  Predicted winner:  UC Santa Barbara
3/15 – Semifinals
9:30 p.m. (ESPNU) (1) UC Irvine vs. (4) Hawaii.  Predicted winner:  UC Irvine
11:59 p.m. (ESPNU) (2) UC Santa Barbara vs. (3) Cal State Fullerton.  Predicted winner:  UC Santa Barbara
3/16 – Finals
11:59 p.m. (ESPN2) (1) UC Irvine vs. (2) UC Santa Barbara.  Predicted winner:  UC Irvine

Conference USA (March 13-16; Frisco, TX)
3/14 – Quarterfinals
7 p.m. (Stadium) (1) Old Dominion vs. (8) Louisiana Tech.  Predicted winner:  Old Dominion
7:30 p.m. (Facebook) (4) UTSA vs. (5) UAB.  Predicted winner:  UAB
9:30 p.m. (Stadium) (2) Western Kentucky vs. (10) North Texas.  Predicted winner: North Texas
10 p.m. (Facebook) (3) Southern Miss vs. (6) Marshall.  Predicted winner: Marshall
3/15 – Semifinals
1:30 p.m. (CBSSN) (1) Old Dominion vs. (5) UAB.  Predicted winner: Old Dominion
4 p.m. (CBSSN) (6) Marshall vs. (10) North Texas.  Predicted winner: Marshall
3/16 – Finals
8:30 p.m. (CBSSN) (1) Old Dominion vs. (6) Marshall.  Predicted winner:  Old Dominion

Ivy League (March 16-17; New Haven, CT)
3/16 – Semifinals
12:30 p.m. (ESPNU) (1) Harvard vs. (4) Penn.  Predicted winner:  Harvard
3 p.m. (ESPNU) (2) Yale vs. (3) Princeton.  Predicted winner:  Yale
3/17 – Finals
12 p.m. (ESPN2) (1) Harvard vs. (2) Yale.  Predicted winner:  Yale

MAC (March 11, 14-16; first round at campus of higher seed and remaining rounds in Cleveland)
3/14 – Quarterfinals
12 p.m. (ESPN+) (1) Buffalo vs. (8) Akron.  Predicted winner:  Buffalo
2:30 p.m. (ESPN+) (4) Kent State vs. (5) Central Michigan.  Predicted winner:  Kent State
6:30 p.m. (ESPN+) (2) Toledo vs. (7) Northern Illinois.  Predicted winner:  Toledo
9 p.m. (ESPN+) (3) Bowling Green vs. (11) Ball State.  Predicted winner:  Bowling Green
3/15 – Semifinals
6:30 p.m. (CBSSN) (1) Buffalo vs. (4) Kent State.  Predicted winner:  Buffalo
9 p.m. (Fox College Sports) (2) Toledo vs. (3) Bowling Green.  Predicted winner:  Toledo
3/16 – Finals
7:30 p.m. (ESPN2) (1) Buffalo vs. (2) Toledo.  Predicted winner:  Buffalo

MEAC (March 11-16; Norfolk, VA)
Quarterfinals
3/14
6 p.m. (ESPN3) (3) North Carolina Central vs. (11) Delaware State.  Predicted winner:  North Carolina Central
8 p.m. (ESPN3) (4) Howard vs. (5) Bethune-Cookman.  Predicted winner:  Howard
3/15 – Semifinals
6 p.m. (ESPN3) (1) Norfolk State vs. (4) Howard.  Predicted winner:  Norfolk State
8 p.m. (ESPN3) (2) North Carolina A&T vs. (3) North Carolina Central.  Predicted winner:  North Carolina A&T
3/16 – Final
1:00 p.m. (ESPN2) (1) Norfolk State vs. (2) North Carolina A&T.  Predicted winner:  Norfolk State

Mountain West (March 13-16; Las Vegas)
3/14 – Quarterfinals
3 p.m. (CBSSN) (1) Nevada vs. (9) Boise State.  Predicted winner: Nevada
5:30 p.m. (CBSSN) (4) San Diego State vs. (5) UNLV.  Predicted winner: San Diego State
9 p.m. (CBSSN) (2) Utah State vs. (7) New Mexico.  Predicted winner: Utah State
11:30 p.m. (CBSSN) (3) Fresno State vs. (6) Air Force.  Predicted winner: Fresno State
3/15 – Semifinals
9 p.m. (CBSSN) (1) Nevada vs. (4) San Diego State.  Predicted winner: Nevada
11:30 p.m. (CBSSN) (2) Utah State vs. (3) Fresno State.  Predicted winner: Utah State
3/16 – Finals
6 p.m. (CBS) (1) Nevada vs. (2) Utah State.  Predicted winner:  Nevada

Pac-12 (March 13-16; Las Vegas)
3/14 – Quarterfinals
3 p.m. (Pac-12 Network) (1) Washington vs. (8) USC.  Predicted winner: Washington
5:30 p.m. (Pac-12 Network) (4) Oregon State vs. (5) Colorado.  Predicted winner: Colorado
9 p.m. (Pac-12 Network) (2) Arizona State vs. (7) UCLA.  Predicted winner: Arizona State
11:30 p.m. (ESPN) (3) Utah vs. (6) Oregon.  Predicted winner: Oregon
3/15 – Semifinals
9 p.m. (Pac-12 Network) (1) Washington vs. (5) Colorado.  Predicted winner: Washington
11:30 p.m. (ESPN) (2) Arizona State vs. (6) Oregon.  Predicted winner: Arizona State
3/16 – Finals
10:30 p.m. (ESPN) (1) Washington vs. (2) Arizona State.  Predicted winner:  Washington

SEC (March 13-17; Nashville)
3/14 – Second Round
1 p.m. (SEC Network) (8) Florida vs. (9) Arkansas.  Predicted winner: Arkansas
3:30 p.m. (SEC Network) (5) Auburn vs. (12) Missouri.  Predicted winner: Auburn
7 p.m. (SEC Network) (7) Ole Miss vs. (10) Alabama.  Predicted winner: Ole Miss
9:30 p.m. (SEC Network) (6) Mississippi State vs. (11) Texas A&M.  Predicted winner: Mississippi State
3/15 – Quarterfinals
1 p.m. (ESPN) (1) LSU vs. (9) Arkansas.  Predicted winner: LSU
3:30 p.m. (ESPN) (4) South Carolina vs. (5) Auburn.  Predicted winner: Auburn
7 p.m. (SEC Network) (2) Kentucky vs. (7) Ole Miss.  Predicted winner: Kentucky
9:30 p.m. (SEC Network) (3) Tennessee vs. (6) Mississippi State.  Predicted winner: Tennessee
3/16 – Semifinals
1 p.m. (ESPN) (1) LSU vs. (5) Auburn.  Predicted winner: Auburn
3:30 p.m. (ESPN) (2) Kentucky vs. (3) Tennessee.  Predicted winner: Tennessee
3/17 – Finals
1 p.m. (ESPN) (3) Tennessee vs. (5) Auburn.  Predicted winner:  Tennessee

Southland (March 13-16; Katy, TX)
3/13 – First Round
6 p.m. (ESPN+) (5) Lamar vs. (8) Houston Baptist.  Predicted winner: Lamar
8:30 p.m. (ESPN+) (6) Texas A&M-CC vs. (7) Central Arkansas.  Predicted winner: Central Arkansas
3/14 – Second Round
6 p.m. (ESPN+) (4) New Orleans vs. (5) Lamar.  Predicted winner: Lamar
8:30 p.m. (ESPN+) (3) Southeastern Louisiana vs. (7) Central Arkansas.  Predicted winner: New Orleans
3/15 – Semifinals
6 p.m. (ESPN+) (1) Sam Houston State vs. (5) Lamar.  Predicted winner: Sam Houston State
8:30 p.m. (ESPN+) (2) Abilene Christian vs. (3) Southeastern Louisiana.  Predicted winner: Abilene Christian
3/16 – Finals
9:30 p.m. (ESPN2) (1) Sam Houston State vs. (2) Abilene Christian.  Predicted winner:  Sam Houston State

Sun Belt (March 12, 14-17; New Orleans)
3/14 - Second Round
6 p.m. (ESPN+) (5) Louisiana vs. (8) South Alabama.  Predicted winner: Louisiana
8:30 p.m. (ESPN+) (6) Coastal Carolina vs. (7) Louisiana-Monroe.  Predicted winner: Louisiana-Monroe
3/15 – Quarterfinals
6 p.m. (ESPN+) (4) Texas State vs. (5) Louisiana.  Predicted winner: Texas State
8:30 p.m. (ESPN+) (3) Georgia Southern vs. (7) Louisiana-Monroe.  Predicted winner: Georgia Southern
3/10 – Semifinals
4 p.m. (ESPN+) (1) Georgia State vs. (4) Texas State.  Predicted winner: Texas State
6:30 p.m. (ESPN+) (2) UT Arlington vs. (3) Georgia Southern.  Predicted winner: Georgia Southern
3/11 – Finals
2 p.m. (ESPN) (3) Georgia Southern vs. (4) Texas State.  Predicted winner:  Texas State

SWAC (March 12, 15-16; quarterfinals at campus of higher seed, remaining games in Birmingham, AL)
3/15 – Semifinals
3:30 p.m. (ESPN3) (1) Prairie View A&M vs. (4) Grambling State.  Predicted winner:  Prairie View A&M
9:30 p.m. (ESPN3) (2) Texas Southern vs. (6) Alabama State.  Predicted winner:  Texas Southern
3/16 – Finals
6 p.m. (ESPN2) (1) Prairie View A&M vs. (2) Texas Southern.  Predicted winner:  Prairie View A&M

WAC (March 14-16; Las Vegas)
3/14 – Quarterfinals
3 p.m. (ESPN3) (1) New Mexico State vs. (8) Chicago State.  Predicted winner:  New Mexico State
5:20 p.m. (ESPN3) (4) UT Rio Grande Valley vs. (5) Cal State Bakersfield.  Predicted winner:  UT Rio Grande Valley
9 p.m. (ESPN3) (2) Utah Valley vs. (7) UMKC.  Predicted winner:  Utah Valley
11:30 p.m. (ESPN3) (3) Grand Canyon vs. (6) Seattle.  Predicted winner:  Grand Canyon
3/15 – Semifinals
9 p.m. (ESPN3) (1) New Mexico State vs. (4) UT Rio Grande Valley.  Predicted winner:  New Mexico State
11:30 p.m. (ESPN3) (2) Utah Valley vs. (3) Grand Canyon.  Predicted winner:  Utah Valley
3/16 – Finals
10 p.m. (ESPNU) (1) New Mexico State vs. (2) Utah Valley.  Predicted winner:  New Mexico State

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