Monday, September 28, 2020

MLB Playoff Predictions

After a shortened and crazy 60-game Major League Baseball regular season, we are now set for an elongated and likely-to-be-crazy playoffs.  Frankly, I'm excited about this year's format -- not only because my two teams (the White Sox and Astros) are both in the playoffs at the same time for the first time since they met in the 2005 World Series, but also because the format itself essentially eliminates home-field advantage and is ripe for some upsets.

The Teams
Here is a look at the teams that are playing in the playoffs this year, with their record and playoff history.  Side note:  for the 20th year in a row, we will not have a repeat champion, since the Washington Nationals didn't make the playoffs this year.  Second side note:  the NL Central is now the first division ever to get four teams into the playoffs in one year.

American League
1. Tampa Bay Rays, 40-20 (.667) (1st in AL East)
-Last playoff appearance:  2019
-Last playoff series win:  2019
-Last LCS appearance: 2008
-Last World Series appearance: 2008
-Last World Series title:  Never

2. Oakland Athletics, 36-24 (.600) (1st in AL West)
-Last playoff appearance:  2019
-Last playoff series win:  2006
-Last LCS appearance:  2006
-Last World Series appearance:  1990
-Last World Series title:  1989

3. Minnesota Twins, 36-24 (.600) (1st in AL Central)
-Last playoff appearance:  2019
-Last playoff series win:  2002
-Last LCS appearance:  2002
-Last World Series appearance:  1991
-Last World Series title: 1991

4. Cleveland Indians, 35-25 (.583) (2nd in AL Central) 
-Last playoff appearance:  2018
-Last playoff series win:  2016
-Last LCS appearance:  2016
-Last World Series appearance:  2016
-Last World Series title:  1948

5. New York Yankees, 33-27 (.550) (2nd in AL East)
-Last playoff appearance:  2019
-Last playoff series win:  2019
-Last LCS appearance:  2019
-Last World Series appearance:  2009
-Last World Series title:  2009

6. Houston Astros, 29-31 (.483) (2nd in AL West) 
-Last playoff appearance:  2019
-Last playoff series win:  2019
-Last LCS appearance:  2019
-Last World Series appearance:  2019
-Last World Series title:  2017

7. Chicago White Sox, 35-25 (.583) (WC1 - 3rd in AL Central) 
-Last playoff appearance:  2008
-Last playoff series win:  2005
-Last LCS appearance:  2005
-Last World Series appearance:  2005
-Last World Series title:  2005

8. Toronto Blue Jays, 32-28 (.533) (WC2 - 3rd in AL East) 
-Last playoff appearance:  2016
-Last playoff series win:  2016
-Last LCS appearance:  2016
-Last World Series appearance:  1993
-Last World Series title:  1993

National League
1. Los Angeles Dodgers, 43-17 (.717) (1st in NL West)
-Last playoff appearance:  2019
-Last playoff series win:  2018
-Last LCS appearance:  2018
-Last World Series appearance:  2018
-Last World Series title:  1988

2. Atlanta Braves, 35-25 (.583) (1st in NL East) 
-Last playoff appearance:  2019
-Last playoff series win:  2001
-Last LCS appearance:  2001
-Last World Series appearance:  1999
-Last World Series title: 1995

3. Chicago Cubs, 34-26 (.567) (1st in NL Central) 
-Last playoff appearance:  2017
-Last playoff series win:  2017
-Last LCS appearance:  2017
-Last World Series appearance:  2016
-Last World Series title:  2016

4. San Diego Padres, 37-23 (.617) (2nd in NL West)
-Last playoff appearance:  2006
-Last playoff series win:  1998
-Last LCS appearance:  1998
-Last World Series appearance:  1998
-Last World Series title:  Never

5. St. Louis Cardinals, 30-28 (.517) (2nd in NL Central) 
-Last playoff appearance:  2019
-Last playoff series win:  2019
-Last LCS appearance:  2019
-Last World Series appearance:  2013
-Last World Series title:  2011

6. Miami Marlins, 31-29 (.517) (2nd in NL East)
-Last playoff appearance:  2003
-Last playoff series win:  2003
-Last LCS appearance:  2003
-Last World Series appearance:  2003
-Last World Series title:  2003

7. Cincinnati Reds, 30-29 (.517) (WC1 - 3rd in NL Central) 
-Last playoff appearance:  2013
-Last playoff series win:  1995
-Last LCS appearance:  1995
-Last World Series appearance:  1990
-Last World Series title:  1990

8. Milwaukee Brewers, 29-31 (.483) (WC2 - 4th in NL Central) 
-Last playoff appearance:  2019
-Last playoff series win:  2018
-Last LCS appearance:  2018
-Last World Series appearance:  1982
-Last World Series title:  Never

The Schedule
The Wild Card round begins tomorrow for the AL and on Wednesday for the NL.  Here's a look at the pairings in both leagues and the schedule (all times Eastern) with TV coverage to the extent known (all Game 3s are only if necessary, of course):

AL
(8) Toronto Blue Jays at (1) Tampa Bay Rays
-Game 1:  9/29 5:00 p.m. TBS
-Game 2:  9/30 4:00 p.m. TBS
-Game 3:  10/1 4:00 p.m. TBS

(5) New York Yankees at (4) Cleveland Indians
-Game 1:  9/29 7:00 p.m. ESPN
-Game 2:  9/30 7:00 p.m. ESPN
-Game 3:  10/1 7:00 p.m. ESPN

(6) Houston Astros at (3) Minnesota Twins
-Game 1:  9/29 2:00 p.m. ABC
-Game 2:  9/30 1:00 p.m. ESPN2
-Game 3:  10/1 1:00 p.m. ESPN2

(7) Chicago White Sox at (2) Oakland Athletics
-Game 1:  9/29 3:00 p.m. ESPN
-Game 2:  9/30 3:00 p.m. ESPN
-Game 3:  10/1 3:00 p.m. ESPN

NL
(8) Milwaukee Brewers at (1) Los Angeles Dodgers
-Game 1:  9/30 10:00 p.m. ESPN
-Game 2:  10/1 10:00 p.m. ESPN
-Game 3:  10/2 6:30 p.m. ESPN

(5) St. Louis Cardinals at (4) San Diego Padres
-Game 1:  9/30 5:00 p.m. ESPN2
-Game 2:  10/1 5:00 p.m. ESPN2
-Game 3:  10/2 10:00 p.m. ESPN

(6) Miami Marlins at (3) Chicago Cubs
-Game 1:  9/30 2:00 p.m. ABC
-Game 2:  10/1 2:00 p.m. ABC
-Game 3:  10/2 2:00 p.m. ABC

(7) Cincinnati Reds at (2) Atlanta Braves
-Game 1:  9/30 12:00 p.m. ESPN
-Game 2:  10/1 12:00 p.m. ESPN
-Game 3:  10/2 3:00 p.m. ESPN

The Format
Before we get to the predictions, here's a quick refresher on how the playoff are going down this year:

1.  The first round of the playoffs will be called the Wild Card Series, even though all teams will be participating.  It will be a best-of-three series, and all games will be played at the higher-seed's home stadium.

2.  The remaining series will be the same format as usual.  The LDS will be best-of-five, and the LCS and World Series will be best-of-seven. 

3.  While there will be a break of a couple days in between rounds, the Wild Card, LDS, and LCS will not have any breaks in between games, so the Wild Card is three games in three days, the LDS is five games in five days, and the LCS is seven games in seven days.  In the World Series

4.  From the LDS on, games will be played in a bubble, with the AL playing in California and the NL playing Texas.  

  • In the AL, the winners of the 1-8 and 4-5 Wild Card Series will play in Petco Park in San Diego, while the winners of the 2-7 and 3-6 Wild Card Series will play in Dodger Stadium in LA.  
  • In the NL, the winners of the 1-8 and 4-5 Wild Card Series will play in Globe Life Park in Arlington, while the winners of the 2-7 and 3-6 Wild Card Series will play in Minute Maid Park in Houston.
  • The ALCS will be played in Petco Park in San Diego.
  • The NLCS will be played in Globe Life Park in Arlington.
  • The World Series will be played in Globe Life Park in Arlington.
  • There is no re-seeding in the playoffs.
The Predictions
And without further ado, here are my predictions for the entire playoffs.  Bear in mind that this is complete fantasy.

American League
Wild Card round
  • (1) Rays over (8) Blue Jays.  The Rays are just too tough, and it's not quite yet the Blue Jays' time.
  • (5) Yankees over (4) Indians.  While the Indians have been surging the last couple weeks, the Yankees' firepower proves to be too much.
  • (6) Astros over (3) Twins.  Don't let the Astros' record fool you.  They have been hobbled by injuries all season, but they are starting to get everyone healthy again.  The Twins have lost an MLB record 16 playoff games in a row, which I think will hang heavy on them.
  • (7) White Sox over (2) Athletics.  Both teams struggled at the end of the season, but the Sox have the better lineup top to bottom.
ALDS
  • (1) Rays over (5) Yankees.  The Rays have been the top dog in the AL East for most of the season, and they exert their strength over the Yankees.
  • (7) White Sox over (6) Astros.  In a rematch of the 2005 World Series (and between my two favorite teams), the Sox will outlast the Astros, who will miss Justin Verlander mightily and will miss out on their fourth ALCS in a row.
ALCS
  • (7) White Sox over (1) Rays.  The Sox's bats come alive as they return to the Fall Classic for the first time in 15 years.
National League
Wild Card round
  • (1) Dodgers over (8) Brewers.  This shouldn't even be close.
  • (4) Padres over (5) Cardinals.  The young Padres' swagger gives them their first playoff series win since the Clinton administration.
  • (3) Cubs over (6) Marlins.  17 years later, the Cubs finally get revenge for the Bartman series.
  • (2) Braves over (7) Reds.  The Braves cruise to an easy series win over the Reds.
NLDS
  • (1) Dodgers over (4) Padres.  While the ALDS is played in their two home stadiums, the two SoCal NL teams battle it out in Arlington, Texas, and the Dodgers prove to be too much for the Padres
  • (3) Cubs over (2) Braves.  The Cubs' experience wins the day in a tough series win over the Braves.
NLCS
  • (3) Cubs over (1) Dodgers.  The Dodgers' bridesmaid status continues as they once again sputter when it matters.
World Series
White Sox over Cubs.  In a rematch of the 1906 World Series (won by the Sox), the dream Crosstown matchup -- that will be played in a suburb of Dallas -- goes to seven games and pits friends against friends and family members against family members throughout the Chicagoland area.  Jose Abreu's extra-inning home run in Game 7 wins it for the Sox, and 40% of the city rejoices in a World Series win that will never be forgotten and that Sox fans will hold over Cubs fans' heads forever.

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