MLB Projected Playoff Teams and Seeding - Through 9/23/20

Last night, the Rays clinched the AL East.  It's their first division title since 2010.

Things are getting crazy in the AL Central.  The White Sox lost their fourth in a row to drop out of first place in the division for the first time in a month or so, while the Twins won their fourth in a row to move a half game ahead of the Sox for first place, while the Indians (who also won their fourth in a row) are now only 2.5 games behind the Twins.  The Sox hold tiebreakers over both teams, so if the Sox tie with either the Twins or the Indians -- or if there is a three-way tie -- atop the division, the Sox will win the division.  The Twins hold the tiebreaker over the Indians, so the Indians would have to finish with a better record than both the Sox and Twins in order to win the division.  For those who care, the Sox have the toughest schedule of the three, as they have one more against the Indians before a three-game series against the Cubs.  The Twins end with three games against the Reds (who are in a playoff battle themselves, so they should have something to play for), while the Indians have one more against the Sox, followed by three against the Pirates, who have the worst record in the league.  The Sox are the only team that controls its own destiny.  If they win their last four games, they are the AL Central champs.

Equally as crazy is the NL playoff race.  There are six teams -- the Cardinals, Giants, Reds, Marlins, Phillies, and Brewers -- that are all currently within a game of each other and fighting for the last four playoff spots in the NL (2nd place in the NL East and NL Central and the two Wild Card spots).  Making things more complicated is that, because of some COVID-related canceled games earlier in the season, the teams have played varying numbers of games and have varying numbers of games left:

• The Cardinals have played 53 games and have 5 left, so they will play only 58 total games, which could help them in the end if they have a better winning percentage than other teams who might end up the same number of games over .500 as the Cardinals
• The Giants and Brewers have both played 55 games and have 5 left
• The Marlins have played 56 games and have 4 left
• The Reds and Phillies have both played 57 games and have 3 left

Needless to say, there is going to be a lot of madness and teams changing seeding positions between now and the end of the season on Sunday.

In the meantime, today, we could see several teams clinch playoff spots or division titles.

• The Blue Jays' magic number to clinch a playoff spot is 1, so they can secure a berth today with a win over the Yankees or with losses by the Angels and Mariners.
• The Astros' magic number to clinch second place in the AL West is still 2, so they can get in today with a win over the Rangers and losses by the Angels and Mariners.
• Also, the Padres can clinch the 4-seed in the NL playoffs with a win or with a Cardinals' loss.

For a breakdown of the MLB playoff structure for this year and tiebreakers, click here.

Through the games played on September 23, here would be the playoff seeds if the season ended today.  For the magic numbers, I'm relying on the MLB Magic Numbers Twitter account.

Moved up:
-Minnesota Twins (from #4 to #3 in AL)
-Oakland Athletics (from #3 to #2 in AL)
-San Francisco Giants (from out to #7 in NL)

Moved down:  
-Chicago White Sox (from #2 to #4 in AL)
-Cincinnati Reds (from #7 to #8 in NL)
-Milwaukee Brewers (from #8 to out in NL)

American League

1.  z-Tampa Bay Rays, 36-20 (.643) (1st in AL East)

2.  z-Oakland Athletics, 34-21 (.618) (1st in AL West)

3.  x-Minnesota Twins, 35-22 (.614) (1st in AL Central)

--Magic Number (win division):  4

4.  x-Chicago White Sox, 34-22 (.607) (2nd in AL Central)

--Magic Number (win division):  4

5.  x-New York Yankees, 32-24 (.571) (2nd in AL East)
6.  Houston Astros, 28-28 (.500) (2nd in AL West)

--Magic Number (playoff spot):  2

7.  x-Cleveland Indians, 32-24 (.571) (WC1 - 3rd in AL Central)
--Magic Number (win division):  7
8.  Toronto Blue Jays, 29-27 (.518) (WC2 - 3rd in AL East)
--Magic Number (playoff spot):  1

x - clinched playoff spot
y - clinched at least second place in division (i.e., a top six seed)
z - clinched division title
bold indicates team has clinched a specific seed

Teams eliminated from division title contention:  Baltimore Orioles, Boston Red Sox, Detroit Tigers, Houston Astros, Kansas City Royals, Los Angeles Angels, New York Yankees, Seattle Mariners, Texas Rangers, Toronto Blue Jays

Teams eliminated from playoff contention:  Baltimore Orioles, Boston Red Sox, Detroit Tigers, Kansas City Royals, Texas Rangers

National League

1.  z-Los Angeles Dodgers, 39-17 (.696) (1st in NL West)
2.  z-Atlanta Braves, 34-22 (.607) (1st in NL East)

3.  x-Chicago Cubs, 32-24 (.571) (1st in NL Central)

--Magic Number (win division):  3

4.  y-San Diego Padres, 34-22 (.607) (2nd in NL West)
5.  St. Louis Cardinals, 27-26 (.509) (2nd in NL Central)

--Magic Numbers (win division/clinch playoff spot):  10/6

6.  Miami Marlins, 28-28 (.500) (2nd in NL East)
--Magic Number (clinch playoff spot):  3

7. San Francisco Giants, 28-27 (.509) (WC1 - 3rd in NL West)
--Magic Number (clinch playoff spot):  5

8.  Cincinnati Reds, 29-28 (.509) (WC2 - 3rd in NL Central) 

--Magic Number (clinch playoff spot):  4

x - clinched playoff spot
y - clinched at least second place in division (i.e., a top six seed)
z - clinched division title
bold indicates team has clinched a specific seed

Teams eliminated from division title contention:  Arizona Diamondbacks, Cincinnati Reds, Colorado Rockies, Miami Marlins, New York Mets, Philadelphia Phillies, Pittsburgh Pirates, San Diego Padres, San Francisco Giants, Washington Nationals

Teams eliminated from playoff contention:  Arizona Diamondbacks, Pittsburgh Pirates, Washington Nationals