MLB Projected Playoff Teams and Seeding - Though 9/25/20

Last night, the Marlins clinched a playoff spot. Be warned, they have only made the playoffs twice before, in 1997 and 2003. They won the World Series both years.

The Reds also clinched a playoff spot for the first time since 2013, when they lost to the Pirates in the Wild Card game.

Despite losing to the Rangers, the Astros clinched a playoff spot -- and the 6-seed in the AL -- by virtue of the Angels' loss to the Dodgers. This is a franchise-record fourth consecutive playoff appearance for the Astros, and, of course, they lost to the Nationals in 7 games in the World Series last year.  

The Padres clinched the 4-seed in the NL with a doubleheader split with the Giants, combined with the Cardinals' doubleheader split with the Brewers.

I've decided that the White Sox are purposely playing bad to give the other teams a false sense of security, before crushing them in the playoffs. I call it the Renteria Rope-a-Dope. God, I hope I'm right.

With the Astros clinching, the AL playoff teams are set, although there is a lot of room for change in the seeding, even with only two games left.  The Twins lead the Indians and White Sox by one game for the AL Central crown.  The winner will get the 2- or 3-seed, second place will get the 4- or 5-seed, and third place will get the 7-seed.  In the AL East, the Blue Jays are now within one game of the Yankees for second place.

In the NL, the Giants, Phillies, and Brewers are all within a game for the final Wild Card spot.  In the NL Central, the Reds and Cardinals are in a virtual tie for 2nd place, but since the Cardinals have played fewer games than the Reds, the Cardinals have a .01 advantage in winning percentage.

In the meantime, today, we could see a bunch of teams clinch playoff spots or division titles.

• The Giants can clinch a Wild Card spot in the NL with a win over the Padres and losses by the Phillies and Brewers.
• The Rays can clinch the 1-seed in the AL with a win or with a loss by the As.
• The Twins can clinch the AL Central title with a win over the Reds and losses by the White Sox and Indians.
• The Cubs can clinch the NL Central title with a win over the White Sox or with a loss by the Cardinals.
• The Yankees can clinch 2nd place in the AL East with a win over the Marlins and a loss by the Blue Jays.
• The Braves can clinch the 2-seed in the NL with a win over the Red Sox or with a loss by the Cubs.

For a breakdown of the MLB playoff structure for this year and tiebreakers, click here.

Through the games played on September 25, here would be the playoff seeds if the season ended today. For the magic numbers, I'm relying on the MLB Magic Numbers Twitter account.

Moved up:

-Cleveland Indians (from #7 to #4 in the AL)
-Oakland Athletics (from #3 to #2 in the AL)

Moved down:

-Chicago White Sox (from #4 to #7 in the AL)
-Minnesota Twins (from #2 to #3 in the AL)

American League
1. z-Tampa Bay Rays, 38-20 (.655) (1st in AL East)
2. z-Oakland Athletics, 35-22 (.614) (1st in AL West)
3. x-Minnesota Twins, 35-23 (.603) (1st in AL Central)
--Magic Number (win division): 2

4. x-Cleveland Indians, 34-24 (.586) (2nd in AL Central) 
--Magic Number (win division): 3

5. x-New York Yankees, 32-26 (.552) (2nd in AL East)
6. x-Houston Astros, 29-29 (.500) (2nd in AL West)
7. x-Chicago White Sox, 34-24 (.586) (WC1 - 3rd in AL Central) 
--Magic Number (win division): 3

8. x-Toronto Blue Jays, 31-27 (.534) (WC2 - 3rd in AL East)

x - clinched playoff spot
y - clinched at least second place in division (i.e., a top six seed)
z - clinched division title
bold indicates team has clinched a specific seed

Teams eliminated from division title contention: Baltimore Orioles, Boston Red Sox, Detroit Tigers, Houston Astros, Kansas City Royals, Los Angeles Angels, New York Yankees, Seattle Mariners, Texas Rangers, Toronto Blue Jays
Teams eliminated from playoff contention: Baltimore Orioles, Boston Red Sox, Detroit Tigers, Kansas City Royals, Los Angeles Angels, Seattle Mariners, Texas Rangers

National League
1. z-Los Angeles Dodgers, 41-17 (.707) (1st in NL West)
2. z-Atlanta Braves, 35-23 (.603) (1st in NL East)
3. x-Chicago Cubs, 33-25 (.569) (1st in NL Central)
--Magic Number (win division): 1
4. y-San Diego Padres, 35-23 (.596) (2nd in NL West)
5. St. Louis Cardinals, 29-27 (.518) (2nd in NL Central)
--Magic Numbers (win division/clinch playoff spot): 7/3 

6. y-Miami Marlins, 30-28 (.517) (2nd in NL East)

7. x-Cincinnati Reds, 30-28 (.517) (WC1 - 3rd in NL Central)
8. San Francisco Giants, 29-29 (.500) (WC2 - 3rd in NL West)
--Magic Number (clinch playoff spot): 2

x - clinched playoff spot
y - clinched at least second place in division (i.e., a top six seed)
z - clinched division title
bold indicates team has clinched a specific seed

Teams eliminated from division title contention: Arizona Diamondbacks, Cincinnati Reds, Colorado Rockies, Miami Marlins, Milwaukee Brewers, New York Mets, Philadelphia Phillies, Pittsburgh Pirates, San Diego Padres, San Francisco Giants, Washington Nationals
Teams eliminated from playoff contention: Arizona Diamondbacks, Colorado Rockies, Pittsburgh Pirates, Washington Nationals