Tuesday, March 29, 2011

Final Countdown

No Tuesday Top Ten this week because I was away from Friday through yesterday, so I don't have the mental ability or the time to dream up something mildly interesting. On to more important things.

What another insane weekend in college basketball. I had the pleasure of attending the East Regional games in Newark -- a city that has a network of building-to-building walkways, not to avoid the cold (like Minneapolis), but rather to avoid the murder. Anyway, two out of the three games I saw came down to the wire. Unfortunately, I had to watch Kentucky clinch a Final Four berth, thereby putting the final nail in my brackets' collective coffin. You would think that with 16 brackets I would have had UConn winning it all in at least one. Nope. On the bright side, John Calipari now has the chance to become the first coach in NCAA history to have three Final Fours at three different schools vacated.

Meanwhile, the right side of the bracket was insane, with Butler and VCU earning spots in Houston. As with last year, there a mid-major has a legitimate shot at being the first mid-major since UNLV in 1990 to win the championship. I told people this weekend not to sleep on the Rams, and no one listened. I'll say it again. Don't sleep on the Rams.

Like last year, I'm going to drop some Final Four statistical knowledge on you. Unless I indicate otherwise, all of these stats are since the tournament expanded to 64 teams in 1985 (and the 1-16 seeding began).

This is only the second time no #1 seeds are in the Final Four (the other was 2006), and this is the first time no #1 or #2 seeds made it to the Final Four. With Butler and VCU playing each other, it guarantees that, for only the second time ever, a team seeded #8 or higher will be playing for the national title. The other, of course, was 8-seeded Villanova in 1985 – the highest-seeded team ever to win the NCAA title.

The average seed for this year's Final Four is a record-breaking 6.5, marking the first time the average seed is above 5.5 and only the 3rd time the average seed has been 4 or more. This is particularly amazing when you consider that the average Final Four seed since 1985 has been approximately 2.65. Here are the other years over 5:

2011: 6.5
2006: 5
2000: 5.5

This is only the third time an 11-seed has made it to the Final Four, the fourth time an 8-seed has made it, and the third time there have been two or more teams seeded 5 or higher in the Final Four. Here are the years in which there have been any teams seeded 5 or higher in the Final Four since 1985. Only twice has a team seeded 5 or higher won it all:

2011: 2: 8-seed Butler and 11-seed VCU
2010: 2: 5-seeds Butler** and Michigan State
2006: 1: 11-seed George Mason
2005: 1: 5-seed Michigan State
2002: 1: 5-seed Indiana**
2000: 3: 5-seed Florida**, 8-seeds North Carolina and Wisconsin
1996: 1: 5-seed Mississippi State
1992: 1: 6-seed Michigan**
1988: 1: 6-seed Kansas*
1987: 1: 6-seed Providence
1986: 1: 11-seed LSU
1985: 1: 8-seed Villanova*
*Champions
**Advanced to championship game

Like last year, this year is also relatively rare because the Final Four features two teams that have never won an NCAA title. Since 1985, here are the years in which a Final Four featured at least one team that had never won an NCAA title (at the time of that year's Final Four). Obviously, the earlier you get, the more teams you have:

2011: 2: Butler, VCU
2010: 2: Butler**, West Virginia
2008: 1: Memphis**
2006: 3: Florida*, George Mason, LSU
2005: 1: Illinois**
2004: 1: Georgia Tech**
2003: 2: Syracuse*, Texas
2002: 2: Maryland*, Oklahoma
2001: 1: Maryland
2000: 1: Florida**
1999: 1: Connecticut*
1997: 2: Arizona*, Minnesota
1996: 2: Massachusetts, Mississippi State
1994: 3: Arizona, Arkansas*, Florida
1991: 1: Duke*
1990: 4: Arkansas, Duke**, Georgia Tech, UNLV*
1989: 4: Duke, Illinois, Michigan*, Seton Hall**
1988: 3: Arizona, Duke, Oklahoma**
1987: 3: Providence, Syracuse**, UNLV
1986: 2: Duke**, LSU
1985: 3: Memphis State, St. John's, Villanova*
*Champions
**Advanced to championship game

It should be a really interesting Final Four. I think any of the four teams can win it. Don't sleep on the Rams.

1 comment:

Atlanta Roofing said...

I mean seriously... VCU had lost 11 total games and 6 in the CAA. It was never if VCU could win games in the tournament, it was always did they deserve to be there in the first place. The answer before the tournament and still is Yes.