Friday, March 11, 2011

Updated Championship Week Predictions

The giant killing will continue until morale improves. Yesterday, we saw the following #1 and #2 seeds go down to significantly lower seeds: Big East #1 seed Pitt, Big West #2 seed Cal Poly, Conference USA #1 seed UAB, and Pac-10 #2 seed UCLA.

Thus far today, Atlantic 10 #1 seed Xavier fell to #9 seed (and archrival) Dayton, MEAC #1 seed Bethune-Cookman ran into a buzz saw with #4 seed Morgan State, and SWAC #2 seed Jackson State fell to #6 seed Grambling. Also, while Duquesne is by no means a "giant," it was still the #4 seed in the Atlantic 10, and its loss to #12 seed St. Joseph's is still a major upset.

And, of course, Big Ten #2 seed Purdue got waxed by #7 seed Michigan State. I don't really consider that an upset because Purdue has a history of not making it to the semifinals of anything.

Meanwhile, three top seeds got huge scares. Big Ten #1 seed Ohio State needed overtime to beat #8 seed Northwestern, ACC #1 seed North Carolina needed a last second shot from Cody Zeller's older brother to beat #9 seed Miami, and SEC West #1 seed needed overtime to beat SEC East #4 seed Georgia.

To top it off, thus far there have been four overtime games, and another three games decided by five points or less. It's madness, I tell you!

Finally, Bucknell clinched the only automatic bid up for grabs today by winning the Patriot League. The Bison could be a dangerous draw in the first round.

Tomorrow is the mother lode of automatic berths, with 11 conference finals, plus the Ivy League one-game playoff.

Here is who has already clinched an automatic berth, as well as my updated predictions for the remaining conference tournaments (other than those listed above), taking into account as many results as I know up to this point.

Already clinched automatic berths:
Atlantic Sun – Belmont
Big Sky – Northern Colorado
Big South – UNC-Asheville
Colonial – Old Dominion
Horizon – Butler
MAAC – St. Peter's
Missouri Valley – Indiana State
NEC – LIU
Ohio Valley – Morehead State
Patriot – Bucknell
Southern – Wofford
Summit – Oakland
Sun Belt – Arkansas-Little Rock
West Coast – Gonzaga

Remaining Tournaments (all times are Eastern)

ACC (Greensboro, NC; March 10-13)
Quarterfinals – 3/11
-7 p.m. (ESPN2) (2) Duke vs. (7) Maryland. Winner: Maryland
-9 p.m. (ESPN2) (3) Florida State vs. (6) Virginia Tech. Winner: Virginia Tech

Semifinals – 3/12
-1 p.m. (ESPN) (1) UNC vs. (4) Clemson. Winner: UNC
-3 p.m. (ESPN) (6) Virginia Tech vs. (7) Maryland. Winner: Virginia Tech

Championship – 3/13
-1 p.m. (ESPN) (1) UNC vs. (6) Virginia Tech. Winner: UNC

America East (Hartford, CT; March 3-6, 12)
Championship 3/12 Noon (ESPN2)
(5) Stony Brook vs. (2) Boston University. Winner: Boston University

Atlantic 10 (Atlantic City, NJ; March 8, 11-13)
Quarterfinals – 3/11
-9 p.m. (CBS College Sports) (3) Richmond vs. (6) Rhode Island. Winner: Richmond

Semifinals – 3/12
-1 p.m. (CBS College Sports) (9) Dayton vs. (12) St. Joseph's. Winner: Dayton
-3:30 p.m. (CBS College Sports) (2) Temple vs. (3) Richmond. Winner: Richmond

Championship – 3/13
-1 p.m. (CBS) (9) Dayton vs. (3) Richmond. Winner: Richmond

Big East (New York, NY; March 8-12)
Semifinals – 3/11
-7 p.m. (ESPN) (4) Syracuse vs. (9) UConn. Winner: UConn
-9 p.m. (ESPN) (3) Louisville vs. (2) Notre Dame. Winner: Louisville

Championship – 3/12
-9 p.m. (ESPN) (9) UConn vs. (3) Louisville. Winner: Louisville

Big Ten (Indianapolis, IN; March 10-13)
Quarterfinals – 3/11
-9 p.m. (BTN) - (3) Wisconsin vs. (6) Penn State. Winner: Wisconsin

Semifinals – 3/12
-1:40 p.m. (CBS) - (1) Ohio State vs. (4) Michigan. Winner: Ohio State
-4:10 p.m. (CBS) - (7) Michigan State vs. (3) Wisconsin. Winner: Wisconsin

Championship – 3/13
-3:30 p.m. (CBS) - (1) Ohio State vs. (3) Wisconsin. Winner: Ohio State

Big 12 (Kansas City, MO; March 9-12)
Semifinals – 3/11
-7 p.m. (ESPN Full Court; Big 12 Network) (1) Kansas vs. (5) Colorado. Winner: Kansas State
-9:30 p.m. (ESPN Full Court; Big 12 Network) (2) Texas vs. (3) Texas A&M. Winner: Texas

Championship – 3/12
-6 p.m. (ESPN) (2) Texas vs. (4) Kansas State. Winner: Texas

Big West (Anaheim, CA; March 10-12 (teams reseeded after every round))
Semifinals – 3/11
-9:30 p.m. (ESPNU) (1) Long Beach State vs. (5) UC-Santa Barbara. Winner: Long Beach State
-Midnight (ESPNU) (7) UC-Riverside vs. (3) Cal State-Northridge. Winner: Cal State-Northridge

Championship – 3/12
-8 p.m. (ESPN2) (1) Long Beach State vs. (3) Cal State-Northridge. Winner: Long Beach State

Conference USA (El Paso, TX; March 9-12)
Championship – 3/12
-11:35 a.m. (CBS) (4) Memphis vs. (3) UTEP. Winner: UTEP

Ivy League
-Championship – 3/12 4 p.m. (ESPN) Harvard vs. Princeton (at New Haven, CT). Winner: Harvard
(NOTE: The Ivy League does not have a tournament. This is a one-game playoff because Harvard and Princeton tied for the regular season title and split their two head-to-head games.)

MAC (Cleveland, OH; March 8, 10-12)
Semifinals – 3/11
-7 p.m. (SportsTime Ohio/ESPN Full Court) (2) Western Michigan vs. (6) Akron. Winner: Western Michigan
-9:30 p.m. (SportsTime Ohio/ESPN Full Court) (1) Kent State vs. (4) Ball State. Winner: Ball State

Championship – 3/12
-6 p.m. (ESPN2) (2) Western Michigan vs. (4) Ball State. Winner: Ball State

MEAC (Winston-Salem, NC; March 8-12)
Semifinals – 3/11
-8 p.m. (2) Hampton vs. (3) Coppin State. Winner: Coppin State

Championship – 3/12
-2 p.m. (ESPN2) (4) Morgan State vs. (3) Coppin State. Winner: Coppin State

Mountain West (Las Vegas, NV; March 9-12)
Semifinals – 3/11
-9 p.m. (CBS College Sports) (1) BYU vs. (5) New Mexico. Winner: New Mexico
-11:30 p.m. (CBS College Sports) (2) San Diego State vs. (3) UNLV. Winner: San Diego State

Championship – 3/12
-7 p.m. (Vs.) (2) San Diego State vs. (5) New Mexico. Winner: San Diego State

Pac-10 (Los Angeles, CA; March 9-12)
Semifinals – 3/11
-9:10 p.m. (FSN Regional) (1) Arizona vs. (4) USC. Winner: Arizona
-11:40 p.m. (FSN Regional) (7) Oregon vs. (3) Washington. Winner: Washington

Championship – 3/12
-6:10 p.m. (CBS) (1) Arizona vs. (3) Washington. Winner: Arizona

SEC (Atlanta, GA; March 10-13)
Quarterfinals – 3/11
-7:30 p.m. (SEC Network/ESPN Full Court) (E1) Florida vs. (E5) Tennessee. Winner: Florida
-10 p.m. (SEC Network/ESPN Full Court) (W2) Mississippi State vs. (E3) Vanderbilt. Winner: Vanderbilt

Semifinals – 3/12
-1 p.m. (ABC) (W1) Alabama vs. (E2) Kentucky. Winner: Kentucky
-3:30 p.m. (ABC) (E1) Florida vs. (E3) Vanderbilt. Winner: Florida

Championship – 3/13
1 p.m. (ABC) (E1) Florida vs. (E2) Kentucky. Winner: Florida

Southland (Katy, TX; March 9-12)
Championship – 3/12
-4 p.m. (ESPN2) (1) McNeese State vs. (7) UT San Antonio. Winner: McNeese State

SWAC (Garland, TX; March 9-12)
Semifinals – 3/11
-9 p.m. (1) Texas Southern vs. (4) Alabama State. Winner: Texas Southern

Championship – 3/12
-8:30 p.m. (ESPNU) (1) Texas Southern vs. (6) Grambling. Winner: Texas Southern

WAC (Las Vegas, NV; March 9-12)
Semifinals – 3/11
-9 p.m. (1) Utah State vs. (8) San Jose State. Winner: Utah State
-Midnight (ESPNU) (2) Boise State vs. (3) New Mexico State. Winner: Boise State

Championship – 3/12
-10 p.m. (ESPN2) (1) Utah State vs. (2) Boise State. Winner: Utah State

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