Sixteen Candles

What a nice weekend. I had the occasion to eat some Art of Pizza and some Turkish food, and Saturday night's "super moon" provided me with a nice excuse to feed on humans again. Oh yeah, and the NCAA tournament was awesome.

Of the 48 games played Thursday through Sunday, 28 were decided by 10 points or less, and 17 were decided by 5 points or less.

Meanwhile, VCU (who was a "First Four" team) absolutely dismantled Georgetown and Purdue – two teams many people thought had legitimate shots at the Final Four.

We are down to 16 teams left, including 10 schools that have won at least one NCAA championship. We have 3 1 seeds, 3 2 seeds, 2 3 seeds, 2 4 seeds, 1 5 seed, 1 8 seed, 1 10 seed, 2 11 seeds, and 1 12 seed.

Here's how it breaks down by conference:

3 teams
-ACC: Duke, Florida State, North Carolina

2 teams
-Big East: Connecticut, Marquette (making it the only conference ever to have 9 teams lose in the first weekend of the tournament)
-Big Ten: Ohio State Wisconsin
-Mountain West: BYU, San Diego State
-SEC: Florida, Kentucky

1 team
-A-10: Richmond
-Big 12: Kansas
-Colonial: VCU
-Horizon: Butler
-Pac-10: Arizona

Like I did last year, I'm going to bust some statistical knowledge all over your face and chest.

Like last year, the average seed number for Sweet 16 teams is 5, which is only the sixth time since 1985 (when the tournament went to 64 teams) that the average is 5 or more. Here is the average seed of Sweet 16 teams since 1985, with the years with an average of 5 or more in bold:

2011: 5
2010: 5
2009: 3.0625
2008: 4.375
2007: 3.1875
2006: 4.4375
2005: 4.5
2004: 4.5625
2003: 4.1875
2002: 4.6875
2001: 4.5625
2000: 5.3125
1999: 5.5
1998: 4.75
1997: 4.8125
1996: 3.6875
1995: 3.1875
1994: 4.25
1993: 4.0625
1992: 4.1875
1991: 4
1990: 5.5
1989: 3.125
1988: 4.3125
1987: 4.25
1986: 5.5625
1985: 4.875

As with last year, we have 5 mid-majors in the Sweet 16, which is only the fifth time this many mid-majors have been in the Sweet 16 since 1985. (I consider non-BCS conferences to be mid-majors, even if a school is now in a BCS conference, so, for instance, Cincinnati, DePaul, Louisville, and Marquette were mid-majors before joining the Big East in 2005. It's not a perfect science. Deal with it.) Here is a year-by-year number of mid-major teams that made it to the Sweet 16 since 1985, with the years with 5 or more in bold:

2011: 5 (Butler, BYU, Richmond, San Diego State, VCU)
2010: 5 (Butler, Cornell, Northern Iowa, St. Mary's, Xavier)
2009: 3 (Gonzaga, Memphis, Xavier)
2008: 4 (Davidson, Memphis, Western Kentucky, Xavier)
2007: 4 (Butler, Memphis, Southern Illinois, UNLV)
2006: 5 (Bradley, George Mason, Gonzaga, Memphis, Wichita State)
2005: 2 (Utah, UW-Milwaukee)
2004: 4 (Nevada, St. Joseph's, UAB, Xavier)
2003: 2 (Butler, Marquette)
2002: 2 (Kent State, Southern Illinois)
2001: 2 (Cincinnati, Gonzaga, Temple)
2000: 2 (Gonzaga, Tulsa)
1999: 4 (Gonzaga, Miami (OH), SW Missouri State, Temple)
1998: 3 (Rhode Island, Utah, Valparaiso)
1997: 3 (St. Joseph's, Utah, UT-Chattanooga)
1996: 3 (Cincinnati, Massachusetts, Utah)
1995: 3 (Massachusetts, Memphis, Tulsa)
1994: 2 (Marquette, Tulsa)
1993: 4 (Cincinnati, George Washington, Temple, Western Kentucky)
1992: 5 (Cincinnati, Memphis State, Massachusetts, New Mexico State, UTEP)
1991: 4 (Eastern Michigan, Temple, UNLV, Utah)
1990: 4 (Ball State, Loyola Marymount, UNLV, Xavier)
1989: 2 (Louisville, UNLV)
1988: 4 (Louisville, Rhode Island, Richmond, Temple)
1987: 3 (DePaul, UNLV, Wyoming)
1986: 5 (Cleveland State, DePaul, Louisville, Navy, UNLV)
1985: 3 (Louisiana Tech, Loyola (IL), Memphis State)

Because I'm insane, I'm adding another category of analysis. This year, there are 5 teams seeded 8 or lower that advanced to the Sweet 16: #8 Butler, #10 Florida State, #11 Marquette, #11 VCU, and #12 Richmond. This is only the second time since the tournament expanded to 64 teams in 1985 that this has happened (the other being 1999). Here is a year-by-year number of teams seeded #8 or lower that made it to the Sweet 16 since 1985, with the years with 5 or more in bold:

2011: 5 (#8 Butler, #10 Florida State, #11 Marquette, #11 VCU, and #12 Richmond)
2010: 4 (#9 Northern Iowa, #10 St. Mary's, #11 Washington, #12 Cornell)
2009: 1 (#12 Arizona)
2008: 3 (#10 Davidson, #12 Villanova, #12 Western Kentucky)
2007: 0
2006: 2 (#11 George Mason*, #13 Bradley)
2005: 2 (#10 North Carolina State, #12 UW-Milwaukee)
2004: 3 (#8 Alabama, #9 UAB, #10 Nevada)
2003: 2 (#10 Auburn, #12 Butler)
2002: 4 (#8 UCLA, #10 Kent State, #11 Southern Illinois, #12 Missouri)
2001: 3 (#10 Georgetown, #11 Temple, #12 Gonzaga)
2000: 4 (#8 North Carolina*, #8 Wisconsin*, #10 Seton Hall, #10 Gonzaga)
1999: 5 (#10 Gonzaga, #10 Miami (OH), #10 Purdue, #12 Southwest Missouri State, #13 Oklahoma)
1998: 4 (#8 Rhode Island, #10 West Virginia, #11 Washington, #13 Valparaiso)
1997: 3 (#10 Texas, #10 Providence, #14 UT-Chattanooga)
1996: 2 (#8 Georgia, #12 Arkansas)
1995: 0
1994: 2 (#9 Boston College, #10 Maryland, #12 Tulsa)
1993: 1 (#12 George Washington)
1992: 2 (#9 UTEP, #12 New Mexico State)
1991: 3 (#10 Temple, #11 Connecticut, #12 Eastern Michigan)
1990: 4 (#8 North Carolina, #10 Texas, #11 Loyola Marymount, #12 Ball State)
1989: 1 (#11 Minnesota)
1988: 2 (#11 Rhode Island, #13 Richmond)
1987: 2 (#10 LSU, #12 Wyoming)
1986: 4 (#8 Auburn, #11 LSU*, #12 DePaul, #14 Cleveland State)
1985: 4 (#8 Villanova**, #11 Auburn, #11 Boston College, #12 Kentucky)
*Advanced to Final Four
**Won NCAA title

Now, here are my picks for the rest of the tournament. I'll be in Newark for the East region games, which should be pretty good, even though I don't like three of the four teams playing.

East Region
#1 Ohio State over #4 Kentucky
#2 North Carolina over #11 Marquette

#1 Ohio State over #2 North Carolina

West Region
#5 Arizona over #1 Duke
#2 San Diego State over #3 Connecticut

#2 San Diego State over #5 Arizona

Southwest Region
#12 Richmond over #1 Kansas
#11 VCU over #10 Florida State

#11 VCU over #12 Richmond

Southeast Region
#8 Butler over #4 Wisconsin
#2 Florida over #3 BYU

#2 Florida over #8 Butler

Final Four
Ohio State over San Diego State
Florida over VCU

Ohio State over Florida