Tuesday, March 25, 2025

Tuesday Top Ten: Fun Facts About This Year's NCAA Tournament

It was a pretty chalky first weekend of the NCAA Tournament, with only a few real upsets and only one true buzzer beater (even if Maryland's Derek Queen traveled before he made the shot).  Good for your brackets, but not great for drama and storylines.

Six of the Sweet 16 teams are repeats from last year, and two of last year's four Final Four teams made it (Alabama and Purdue).  Here are the Sweet 16 teams, along with the last time they made the Sweet 16 (and their region, seeds, game time, and what station is televising the game):

East Region (Newark)
(2) Alabama (2024) vs. (6) BYU (2011) - Thursday 3/27 7:09 p.m. ET CBS
(1) Duke (2024) vs. (4) Arizona (2024) - Thursday 3/27 9:39 p.m. ET TBS

West Region (San Franciso)
(1) Florida (2017) vs. (4) Maryland (2016) - Thursday 3/27 7:39 p.m. ET TBS/truTV
(3) Texas Tech (2022) vs. (10) Arkansas (2023) - Thursday 3/27 10:09 p.m. ET TBS/truTV

South Region (Atlanta)
(2) Michigan State (2023) vs. (6) Mississippi (2001) - Friday 3/28 7:09 p.m. ET CBS
(1) Auburn (2019) vs. (5) Michigan (2022) - Friday 3/28 9:39 p.m. ET CBS

Midwest Region (Indianapolis)
(2) Tennessee (2024) vs. (3) Kentucky (2019) - Friday 3/28 7:39 p.m. ET TBS/truTV
(1) Houston (2024) vs. (4) Purdue (2024) - Friday 3/28 10:09 p.m. ET TBS/truTV

If you're like me -- and you better pray to Osiris that you're not –- you not only love the NCAA Tournament, but you are fascinated with the history and statistical minutiae associated with the tournament.  Like I've done the last many years, I'm going to drop knowledge bombs on your mind.  Here are 16 fun facts about this year's NCAA tournament.  You know, 16.  For the Sweet 16.

16.  By coaching Arkansas to the Sweet 16, John Calipari became only the second coach in history (Lon Kruger being the first) to take four different schools to the Sweet 16 (UMass, Memphis, Kentucky, and now Arkansas) -- and that even takes into account the ones that were vacated!

15.  For only the second time since the First Four format started in 2011, none of the First Four winners advanced to the Round of 32 (2019 was the other year).

14.  Two teams got their first-ever NCAA Tournament win:  
  • 12-seed McNeese, which upset 5-seed Clemson in the First Round
  • 16-seed Alabama State, which beat fellow 16-seed St. Francis (PA) in the First Four with an exciting full-court pass for a layup with less than two seconds left.
13.  For the 18th time since the NCAA Tournament expanded to 64 teams in 1985, at least two 12-seeds upset 5-seeds in the First Round -- with Colorado State beating Memphis in the West and McNeese beating Clemson in the Midwest.  There have been only six tournaments since 1985 where no 12-seeds beat a 5-seed (1988, 2000, 2007, 2015, 2018, 2023).

12.  No 13-, 14-, 15- or 16-seeds won.  Since the tournament expanded to 64 teams in 1985, this is only the sixth time this has happened, with 1994, 2000, 2004, 2007, and 2017 being the other years.

11.  Duke was the only ACC team to advance to the Second Round, which was the first time since the NCAA Tournament expanded to 32 teams in 1975 to accommodate at-large bids that the ACC has not had at least two teams in the Second Round.

10.  All in all, 7 higher-seeded teams upset lower-seeded teams in the First Round, and 4 higher-seeded teams upset lower-seeded teams in the Second Round.

9.  Mississippi is in the Sweet 16 for only the second time ever and the first time since 2001.  Now, you may think a 24-year drought between Sweet 16 appearances is a long time, but relatively speaking, there are teams that waited a lot longer.  Here are the droughts between Sweet 16 appearances of 35 or more years (since the NCAA Tournament expanded to 16 teams in 1951):
-58 years:  LaSalle (1955-2013)
-56 years:  Cornell (1954-2010); Princeton (1967-2023)
-52 years:  Virginia Tech (1967-2019)
-51 years:  Bradley (1955-2006), St. Mary's (1959-2010)
-47 years:  Creighton (1974-2021)
-46 years:  Penn State (1955-2001)
-44 years:  South Carolina (1973-2017)
-42 years:  Oregon (1960-2002)
-41 years:  Butler (1962-2003)
-40 years:  USC (1961-2001)
-39 years:  Davidson (1969-2008), Oregon State (1982-2021), Tulsa (1955-1994)
-38 years:  Ohio (1964-2002)
-35 years:  Houston (1984-2019), West Virginia (1963-1998)

As long as we're looking at droughts, let's look at which schools have current Sweet 16 droughts of 50 or more years.  Again, it's since the NCAA Tournament expanded to 16 teams in 1951.  I'm adding a year, since they obviously aren't in this year's Sweet 16 -- and, of course, teams that are no longer Division 1 teams are not included, nor are teams that have never made the Sweet 16.  Here they are:
-75 years (1951):  Montana State, San Jose State
-73 years (1953):  Holy Cross
-72 years (1954):  Rice
-69 years (1957):  Canisius, Lafayette, St. Louis
-68 years (1958):  Dartmouth, Manhattan
-67 years (1959):  Boston University
-66 years (1961):  Morehead State
-63 years (1963):  Bowling Green
-62 years (1964):  Seattle (although they were not D-1 from 1980 to 2008)
-59 years (1967):  SMU
-58 years (1968):  Columbia, East Tennessee State, TCU
-57 years (1969):  Colorado, Colorado State, Duquesne
-56 years (1970):  Jacksonville, Niagara, Santa Clara, St. Bonaventure, Utah State
-55 years (1971):  Drake, Fordham, Pacific
-53 years (1972):  Weber State
-52 years (1974):  Furman, New Mexico
-51 years (1975):  Central Michigan, Montana
-50 years (1976):  Pepperdine, Western Michigan

8.  Here's every conference's last Sweet 16 team.  Note that, with all of the conference realignments over the years, this is for the conference itself and teams playing in that conference when they made the Sweet 16, and not necessarily for teams currently in each conference.  I'm going to do it by how many years it's been since the conference's last Sweet 16, listing the relevant teams.  For conferences with no Sweet 16s ever, I'll list the year they were founded.
  • Zero years (2025)
    • ACC:  Duke
    • Big 12:  Arizona, BYU, Houston, Texas Tech
    • Big Ten:  Maryland, Michigan, Michigan State, Purdue
    • SEC:  Alabama, Arkansas, Auburn, Florida, Kentucky, Mississippi, Tennessee
  • 1 year (2024)
    • Big East:  Creighton, UConn, Marquette
    • Mountain West:  San Diego State
    • West Coast:  Gonzaga
  • 2 years (2023):
    • AAC:  Houston
    • Conference USA:  FAU
    • Ivy League:  Princeton
    • Pac-12:  UCLA
  • 3 years (2022)
    • MAAC:  St. Peter's
  • 4 years (2021)
    • Missouri Valley:  Loyola (IL)
    • Summit:  Oral Roberts
  • 11 years (2014)
    • Atlantic 10:  Dayton
  • 12 years (2013)
    • Atlantic Sun:  Florida Gulf Coast
  • 13 years (2012)
    • MAC:  Ohio
  • 14 years (2011)
    • Colonial:  VCU
    • Horizon:  Butler
  • 17 years (2008)
    • Southern Conference:  Davidson
    • Sun Belt:  Western Kentucky
  • 21 years (2004)
    • WAC:  Nevada
  • 33 years (1992)
    • Big West:  New Mexico State
  • 40 years (1985)
    • Southland:  Louisiana Tech
  • 43 years (1982)
    • Big Sky:  Idaho
  • 52 years (1973)
    • Ohio Valley:  Austin Peay
  • Never
    • America East (founded 1979)
    • Big South (founded 1983)
    • MEAC (founded 1970)
    • NEC (founded 1981)
    • Patriot League (founded 1986)
    • SWAC (founded 1920)
7.  The Big Ten set an NCAA Tournament record for most wins by a conference without a loss by going 8-0 in the First Round of the tournament.

6.  The SEC has a record 7 teams in the Sweet 16, while the Big Ten and Big 12 both have 4 teams, and the ACC has only one team (Duke).  Since the NCAA Tournament expanded to 64 teams in 1985, here are the major conferences –- which I define as the ACC, SEC, Big Ten, Big 8/Big 12, Pac-10/Pac-12 (until 2024), and the Big East (until 2013) –- that only advanced one team (or no team) to the Sweet 16:
-ACC:  7 times (one team in 2007-2008, 2010, 2014, 2017, 2023, 2025)
-Big East (until 2013):  5 times (no team in 1986 and 1993, and one team in 1988, 1992, and 2001)
-Big 8/Big 12:  13 times (no team in 1990 and 1998, and one team in 1985-1986, 1992, 1996-1997, 1999, 2001, 2006, 2011, 2013, and 2021)
-Big Ten:  9 times (no team in 1995-1996 and 2006, and one team in 1985, 1997, 2004, 2007, 2021, and 2023)
-Pac-10/Pac-12 (until 2024):  23 times (no team in 1985-1987, 1993, 1999, 2004, 2012, and 2018, and one team in 1988-1992, 1994, 1996, 2000, 2003, 2009-2011, 2016, 2023, and 2024)
-SEC:  14 times (no team in 1988 and 2009, and one team in 1990-1992, 1997-1998, 2002, 2005, 2008, 2013, 2015-2016, and 2022)

5.  Two-time defending champ UConn lost to 1-seed Florida in the Second Round.  It was the 27th time since seeding began in 1979 that the defending champ failed to make it to the Sweet 16.  If you're counting, that means a defending champ is more likely than not to fail to make it to the Sweet 16.  Setting aside that grammatical garble, here is a breakdown of defending champions who have lost before the Sweet 16 or failed to make the NCAA Tournament since 1979:
2025:  UConn (lost in Round of 32)
2023:  Kansas (lost in Round of 32)
2022:  Baylor (lost in Round of 32)
2021:  Virginia (lost in Round of 64)
2019:  Villanova (lost in Round of 32)
2018:  North Carolina (lost in Round of 32)
2017:  Villanova (lost in Round of 32)
2015:  UConn (did not make the NCAA Tournament)
2013:  Kentucky (did not make the NCAA Tournament)
2012:  UConn (lost in Round of 64)
2010:  North Carolina (did not make the NCAA Tournament)
2008:  Florida (did not make the NCAA Tournament)
2006:  North Carolina (lost in Round of 32)
2005:  UConn (lost in Round of 32)
2000:  UConn (did not make the NCAA Tournament)
1996:  UCLA (lost in Round of 64)
1994:  North Carolina (lost in Round of 32)
1993:  Duke (lost in Round of 32)
1990:  Michigan (lost in Round of 32)
1989:  Kansas (did not make the NCAA Tournament)
1988:  Indiana (lost in Round of 64)
1987:  Louisville (did not make the NCAA Tournament)
1986:  Villanova (lost in Round of 32)
1984:  NC State (did not make the NCAA Tournament)
1982:  Indiana (lost in Round of 32)
1981:  Louisville (lost in Round of 32)
1980:  Michigan State (did not make the NCAA Tournament)

4.  Five double-digit seeds won their first round games, which is the fewest since 2023 and below the average.  In the 40 tournaments since the NCAA Tournament expanded to 64 teams in 1985, there have been 249 double-digit seeds that have won their first round games, which is an average of 6.225 per year.  Here is a year-by-year list of every double-digit seed that has won its first round game since 1985:
2025:  5 (#10 Arkansas, #10 New Mexico, #11 Drake, #12 Colorado State, #12 McNeese)
2024:  8 (#10 Colorado, #11 Duquesne, #11 NC State, #11 Oregon, #12 Grand Canyon, #12 James Madison, #13 Yale, #14 Oakland)
2023:  5 (#10 Penn State, #11 Pitt, #13 Furman, #15 Princeton, #16 Fairleigh Dickinson)
2022:  7 (#10 Miami, #11 Iowa State, #11 Michigan, #11 Notre Dame, #12 New Mexico State, #12 Richmond, #15 St. Peter's)
2021:  9 (#10 Maryland, Rutgers, #11 Syracuse, UCLA, #12 Oregon State, #13 North Texas, #13 Ohio, #14 Abilene Christian, #15 Oral Roberts)
2019:  8 (#10 Florida, Iowa, Minnesota, #11 Ohio State, #12 Liberty, Murray State, Oregon, #13 UC Irvine)
2018:  6 (#10 Butler, #11 Loyola (IL), Syracuse, #13 Buffalo, Marshall, #16 UMBC)
2017:  5 (#10 Wichita State, #11 Rhode Island, USC, Xavier, #12 Middle Tennessee State)
2016:  10 (#10 Syracuse, VCU, #11 Gonzaga, Northern Iowa, Wichita State, #12 Little Rock, Yale, #13 Hawaii, #14 Stephen F. Austin, #15 Middle Tennessee State)
2015:  5 (#10 Ohio State, #11 Dayton, UCLA, #14 UAB, Georgia State)
2014:  6 (#10 Stanford, #11 Dayton, Tennessee, #12 Harvard, North Dakota State, Stephen F. Austin)
2013:  8 (#10 Iowa State, #11 Minnesota, #12 California, Mississippi, Oregon, #13 LaSalle, #14 Harvard, #15 Florida Gulf Coast)
2012:  9 (#10 Purdue, Xavier, #11 Colorado, North Carolina State, #12 South Florida, VCU, #13 Ohio, #15 Lehigh, Norfolk State)
2011:  6 (#10, Florida State, #11 Gonzaga, Marquette, VCU, #12 Richmond, #13 Morehead State)
2010:   8 (#10 Georgia Tech, Missouri, St. Mary's, #11 Old Dominion, Washington, #12 Cornell, #13 Murray State, #14 Ohio)
2009:  8 (#10 Maryland, Michigan, USC, #11 Dayton, #12 Arizona, Western Kentucky, Wisconsin, #13 Cleveland State)
2008:  6 (#10 Davidson, #11 Kansas State, #12 Villanova, Western Kentucky, #13 San Diego, Siena)
2007:  2 (#11 Winthrop, VCU)
2006:  8 (#10 Alabama, NC State, #11 George Mason, Wisconsin-Milwaukee, #12 Montana, Texas A&M, #13 Bradley, #14 Northwestern State)
2005:  5 (#10 NC State, #11 UAB, #12 Wisconsin-Milwaukee, #13 Vermont, #14 Bucknell)
2004:  3 (#10 Nevada, #12 Manhattan, Pacific)
2003:  5 (#10 Arizona State, Auburn, #11 Central Michigan, #12 Butler, #13 Tulsa)
2002:  7 (#10 Kent State, #11 Southern Illinois, Wyoming, #12 Creighton, Missouri, Tulsa, #13 UNC-Wilmington)
2001:  9 (#10 Butler, Georgetown, #11 Georgia State, Temple, #12 Gonzaga, Utah State, #13 Indiana State, Kent State, #15 Hampton)
2000:  3 (#10 Gonzaga, Seton Hall, #11 Pepperdine)
1999:  8 (#10 Creighton, Gonzaga, Miami (OH), Purdue, #12 Detroit, Southwest Missouri State, #13 Oklahoma, #14 Weber State)
1998:  8 (#10 Detroit, West Virginia, St. Louis, #11 Washington, Western Michigan, #12 Florida State, #13 Valparaiso, #14 Richmond)
1997:  5 (#10 Providence, Texas, #12 Charleston, #14 Tennessee-Chattanooga, #15 Coppin State)
1996:  6 (#10 Santa Clara, Texas, #11 Boston College, #12 Arkansas, Drexel, #13 Princeton)
1995:  6 (#10 Stanford, #11 Texas, #12 Miami (OH), #13 Manhattan, #14 Old Dominion, Weber State)
1994:  5 (#10 George Washington, Maryland, #11 Pennsylvania, #12 Tulsa, Wisconsin-Green Bay)
1993:  4 (#11 Tulane, #12 George Washington, #13 Southern, #15 Santa Clara)
1992:  5 (#10 Iowa State, Tulane, #12 New Mexico State, #13 Southwest Louisiana, #14 East Tennessee State)
1991:  8 (#10 BYU, Temple, #11 Connecticut, Creighton, #12 Eastern Michigan, #13 Penn State, #14 Xavier, #15 Richmond)
1990:  5 (#10 Texas, #11 Loyola Marymount, #12 Ball State, Dayton, #14 Northern Iowa)
1989:  8 (#10 Colorado State, #11 Evansville, Minnesota, South Alabama, Texas, #12 DePaul, #13 Middle Tennessee State, #14 Siena)
1988:  4 (#10 Loyola Marymount, #11 Rhode Island, #13 Richmond, #14 Murray State)
1987:  6 (#10 LSU, Western Kentucky, #12 Wyoming, #13 Southwest Missouri State, Xavier, #14 Austin Peay)
1986:  5 (#10 Villanova, #11 LSU, #12 DePaul, #14 Arkansas-Little Rock, Cleveland State)
1985:  5 (#11 Auburn, Boston College, UTEP, #12 Kentucky, #13 Navy)

3.  The average seed number for Sweet 16 teams this year is 3.4375, which is a below average and the second year in a row (and only the 12th time since 1979) that it's below 4.  Of course, if the seeding played out as it should (i.e., all teams seeded 1-4 advancing to the Sweet 16, which has never happened), the average seed number would be 2.5. Here is the average seed of Sweet 16 teams since 1979 (with the years when the average seed number was 5 or higher bolded):
2025:  3.4375
2024:  3.3125
2023:  4.875
2022:  5.3125
2021: 5.875
2019: 3.0625
2018: 5.3125
2017: 4.0625
2016: 4.125
2015: 4.375
2014: 4.9375
2013: 5.0625
2012: 4.5625
2011: 5
2010: 5
2009: 3.0625
2008: 4.375
2007: 3.1875
2006: 4.4375
2005: 4.5
2004: 4.5625
2003: 4.1875
2002: 4.6875
2001: 4.5625
2000: 5.3125
1999: 5.5
1998: 4.75
1997: 4.8125
1996: 3.6875
1995: 3.1875
1994: 4.25
1993: 4.0625
1992: 4.1875
1991: 4
1990: 5.5
1989: 3.125
1988: 4.3125
1987: 4.25
1986: 5.5625
1985: 4.875
1984: 3.8125
1983: 3.5
1982: 3.1875
1981: 4.5625
1980: 4.125
1979: 3.8125

2.  In what may be a sign of the NIL/transfer portal era -- where mid-major and low-major studs transfer up to major conferences after a good year -- for the first time since seeding began in 1979, there are no mid-majors in the Sweet 16. (I consider schools in conferences other than the ACC, Big East, Big 12, Big Ten, Pac-12 (until 2024), and SEC to be mid-majors, even if a school is now in one of those conferences, so, for instance, Butler and Xavier were mid-majors before joining the Big East a couple years ago, but are no longer mid-majors. It's not a perfect science. Deal with it.)  29 mid-majors have advanced to the Final Four since 1979.  Here is a year-by-year breakdown of the number of mid-major teams that made it to the Sweet 16 since 1979:
2025:  0
2024:  2 (San Diego State, Gonzaga)
2023:  5 (FAU*, Gonzaga, Houston, Princeton, and San Diego State*)
2022:  3 (Gonzaga, Houston, St. Peter's)
2021:  4 (Gonzaga*, Houston*, Loyola (IL), Oral Roberts)
2019: 2 (Gonzaga, Houston)
2018: 3 (Gonzaga, Loyola (IL)*, Nevada)
2017: 1 (Gonzaga*)
2016: 1 (Gonzaga)
2015: 2 (Gonzaga, Wichita State)
2014: 2 (Dayton, San Diego State)
2013: 3 (Florida Gulf Coast, LaSalle, Wichita State*)
2012: 2 (Ohio, Xavier)
2011: 5 (Butler*, BYU, Richmond, San Diego State, VCU*)
2010: 5 (Butler*, Cornell, Northern Iowa, St. Mary's, Xavier)
2009: 3 (Gonzaga, Memphis, Xavier)
2008: 4 (Davidson, Memphis*, Western Kentucky, Xavier)
2007: 4 (Butler, Memphis, Southern Illinois, UNLV)
2006: 5 (Bradley, George Mason*, Gonzaga, Memphis, Wichita State)
2005: 2 (Utah, UW-Milwaukee)
2004: 4 (Nevada, St. Joseph's, UAB, Xavier)
2003: 2 (Butler, Marquette*)
2002: 2 (Kent State, Southern Illinois)
2001: 2 (Cincinnati, Gonzaga, Temple)
2000: 2 (Gonzaga, Tulsa)
1999: 4 (Gonzaga, Miami (OH), SW Missouri State, Temple)
1998: 3 (Rhode Island, Utah*, Valparaiso)
1997: 3 (St. Joseph's, Utah, UT-Chattanooga)
1996: 3 (Cincinnati, Massachusetts*, Utah)
1995: 3 (Massachusetts, Memphis, Tulsa)
1994: 2 (Marquette, Tulsa)
1993: 4 (Cincinnati, George Washington, Temple, Western Kentucky)
1992: 5 (Cincinnati*, Memphis State, Massachusetts, New Mexico State, UTEP)
1991: 4 (Eastern Michigan, Temple, UNLV*, Utah)
1990: 4 (Ball State, Loyola Marymount, UNLV**, Xavier)
1989: 2 (Louisville, UNLV)
1988: 4 (Louisville, Rhode Island, Richmond, Temple)
1987: 3 (DePaul, UNLV*, Wyoming)
1986: 5 (Cleveland State, DePaul, Louisville**, Navy, UNLV)
1985: 3 (Louisiana Tech, Loyola (IL), Memphis State*)
1984: 6 (Dayton, DePaul, Houston*, Louisville, Memphis State, UNLV)
1983: 4 (Houston*, Louisville, Memphis State, Utah)
1982: 6 (Fresno State, Houston*, Idaho, Louisville*, Memphis State, UAB)
1981: 5 (BYU, St. Joseph's, UAB, Utah, Wichita State)
1980: 2 (Lamar, Louisville**)
1979: 8 (DePaul*, Indiana State*, Louisville, Marquette, Penn*, Rutgers, San Francisco, Toledo)
*Advanced to Final Four
**Won NCAA title

1.  There is only one team seeded 8 or lower that advanced to the Sweet 16 (10-seed Arkansas in the West Region), which is below the average.  Seventeen teams seeded 8 or higher have advanced to the Final Four (Villanova in 1985 was the only national champion).  Here is a year-by-year breakdown of the number of teams seeded #8 or lower that made it to the Sweet 16 since 1979:
2025:  1 (#10 Arkansas)
2024:  1 (#11 NC State*)
2023:  3 (#8 Arkansas, #9 FAU*, #15 Princeton)
2022:  5 (#8 North Carolina*, #10 Miami, #11 Iowa State, #11 Michigan, #15 St. Peter's)
2021:  5 (#8 Loyola (IL), #11 Syracuse, #11 UCLA*, #12 Oregon State, #15 Oral Roberts)
2019: 1 (#12 Oregon)
2018: 4 (#9 Florida State, #9 Kansas State, #11 Loyola (IL)*, #11 Syracuse)
2017: 2 (#8 Wisconsin, #11 Xavier)
2016: 2 (#10 Syracuse*, #11 Gonzaga)
2015: 2 (#8 NC State, #11 UCLA)
2014: 4 (#8 Kentucky*, #10 Stanford, #11 Dayton, #11 Tennessee)
2013: 4 (#9 Wichita State*, #12 Oregon, #13 LaSalle, and #15 Florida Gulf Coast)
2012: 3 (#10 Xavier, #11 NC State, and #13 Ohio)
2011: 5 (#8 Butler*, #10 Florida State, #11 Marquette, #11 VCU*, and #12 Richmond)
2010: 4 (#9 Northern Iowa, #10 St. Mary's, #11 Washington, #12 Cornell)
2009: 1 (#12 Arizona)
2008: 3 (#10 Davidson, #12 Villanova, #12 Western Kentucky)
2007: 0
2006: 2 (#11 George Mason*, #13 Bradley)
2005: 2 (#10 North Carolina State, #12 UW-Milwaukee)
2004: 3 (#8 Alabama, #9 UAB, #10 Nevada)
2003: 2 (#10 Auburn, #12 Butler)
2002: 4 (#8 UCLA, #10 Kent State, #11 Southern Illinois, #12 Missouri)
2001: 3 (#10 Georgetown, #11 Temple, #12 Gonzaga)
2000: 4 (#8 North Carolina*, #8 Wisconsin*, #10 Seton Hall, #10 Gonzaga)
1999: 5 (#10 Gonzaga, #10 Miami (OH), #10 Purdue, #12 Southwest Missouri State, #13 Oklahoma)
1998: 4 (#8 Rhode Island, #10 West Virginia, #11 Washington, #13 Valparaiso)
1997: 3 (#10 Texas, #10 Providence, #14 UT-Chattanooga)
1996: 2 (#8 Georgia, #12 Arkansas)
1995: 0
1994: 2 (#9 Boston College, #10 Maryland, #12 Tulsa)
1993: 1 (#12 George Washington)
1992: 2 (#9 UTEP, #12 New Mexico State)
1991: 3 (#10 Temple, #11 Connecticut, #12 Eastern Michigan)
1990: 4 (#8 North Carolina, #10 Texas, #11 Loyola Marymount, #12 Ball State)
1989: 1 (#11 Minnesota)
1988: 2 (#11 Rhode Island, #13 Richmond)
1987: 2 (#10 LSU, #12 Wyoming)
1986: 4 (#8 Auburn, #11 LSU*, #12 DePaul, #14 Cleveland State)
1985: 4 (#8 Villanova**, #11 Auburn, #11 Boston College, #12 Kentucky)
1984: 1 (#10 Dayton)
1983: 1 (#10 Utah)
1982: 1 (#8 Boston College)
1981: 2 (#8 Kansas State, #9 St. Joseph's)
1980: 2 (#8 UCLA*, #10 Lamar)
1979: 2 (#9 Penn*, #10 St. John's)
*Advanced to Final Four
**Won NCAA title

Friday, March 21, 2025

Hair Band Friday - 3/21/25

1.  "Every Rose Has Its Thorn" by Poison

2.  "Thief in the Night" by KISS

3.  "Bloodstone" by Jetboy

4.  "Rock Forever" by Judas Priest

5.  "Just Another Night" by Wildside

6.  "Back on the Bitch" by Spread Eagle

7.  "Rainbow in the Rose" by Winger

8.  "Dee" by Ozzy Osbourne

9.  "Hit Between the Eyes" by Scorpions

10.  "Blue Monday" by White Lion

Tuesday, March 18, 2025

Tuesday Top Ten: NCAA Tournament Edition

This year's NCAA Tournament brackets have been announced, and like the last few years, I think this will be another unpredictable NCAA Tournament.  While there are a handful of top teams, I still think this thing is wide open, and there are about eight to ten teams who I think could legitimately win it all.  Or they could all lose before the end of the first weekend.  I have already filled out 116 brackets, and I have zero confidence in any of them.  

Here are a couple initial random thoughts and fun facts:

  • As with last year, I don't think any 1-seeds have an easy path to the Final Four.  I wouldn't be surprised if none of them make it to San Antonio or if all four of them do (especially if Duke's Copper Flagg is able to play).
  • As always, I would not be surprised if all of the 12-seeds beat all of the 5-seeds.  Or none.  But I would be more surprised if none of them win.
  • The SEC has an NCAA Tournament record 14 teams in the tournament, which is over 20% of the field.
  • On the other side of the coin, the ACC only has 4 teams in the tournament, the least it has had since 2013.
  • Kansas is a 7-seed, which is the lowest the Jayhawks have been seeded since 2000, when they were an 8-seed, and it's the first time since then that they haven't been a top four seed. 
  • North Carolina absolutely did not deserve to get the final at-large bid, which probably means they'll make a surprise run to the Sweet 16.
  • We have a potentially intriguing matchup in the Second Round in the West if 10-seed Arkansas and 2-seed St. John's, coached respectively by former national championship Kentucky head coaches John Calipari and Rick Pitino, both win their first round games.
  • Another potentially interesting Second Round matchup is in the South, if 1-seed Auburn and 8-seed Louisville both advance, as Louisville is thought to be underseeded, and the game will be played in Lexington, Kentucky, a little more than an hour east of Louisville.
  • We have four teams in this year's field who are making their NCAA Tournament debuts (at the D-1 level, anyway):
    • UC San Diego (12-seed South)
    • High Point (13-seed Midwest)
    • Omaha (15-seed West)
    • SIU-Edwardsville (16-seed Midwest)
  • By winning the Big West Tournament, the UC San Diego Tritons are not only in the Big Dance for the first time, but made it in their first year of D-1 eligibility, which, according to one article I read, is only the third time in the last 50+ years that has happened.  I couldn't easily figure out the other instances, so I'll leave that to you.
  • Of the 18 schools with 35 or more NCAA Tournament appearances (including this year) -- Kentucky, North Carolina, Kansas, UCLA, Duke, Indiana, Louisville, Villanova, Texas, Michigan State, Marquette, Notre Dame, Syracuse, UConn, Arkansas, Arizona, Illinois, and Purdue -- only four didn't receive bids to this year's NCAA Tournament (Indiana, Villanova, Notre Dame, and Syracuse).
  • The longest drought between NCAA Tournament appearance for any team in this year's tournament is NEC champion St. Francis (PA) (one of the play-in 16-seeds in the South Region), who is in the NCAA Tournament for the first time since 1991.  The Red Flash's 34-year span between NCAA Tournament appearances doesn't hold a candle to the longest span between appearances.  Here are the schools that have gone 40 or more years between NCAA Tournament appearances:
    • 66 years:  Harvard (1946-2012)
    • 54 years:  Yale (1962-2016)
    • 47 years:
      • Brown (1939-1986)
      • Duquesne (1977-2024)
      • Stanford (1942-1989)
      • Wisconsin (1947-1994)
    • 43 years:  Furman (1980-2023)
    • 42 years:  Air Force (1962-2004)
    • 41 years:  Iowa State (1944-1985)
  • At 16-17, St. Francis is also the only team in this year's tournament with a losing record.  Since the tournament expanded to 68 teams in 2011 and adopted the "First Four" format, teams with losing records -- who, granted, are usually teams from low-major conferences that win their conference tournament -- are 5-7 in the NCAA Tournament.  Here's a list of the others:
    • 2023:  Texas Southern (14-20), lost in First Four to Fairleigh Dickinson, who went onto beat Purdue in the First Round in what is considered by many as the biggest upset in NCAA Tournament history
    • 2018:  Texas Southern (15-19), won their First Four matchup against North Carolina Central before losing to 1-seed Xavier in the First Round
    • 2016:  Holy Cross (14-19), won their First Four game against Southern before losing to 1-seed Oregon in the First Round
    • 2015:  Hampton (16-17), won their First Four contest with Manhattan before losing to 1-seed to 1-seed Kentucky in the First Round
    • 2014:  Cal Poly (13-19), won their First Four matchup with Texas Southern before losing to 1-seed Wichita State
    • 2013:  Liberty (15-20), lost to North Carolina A&T in the First Four
    • 2012:  Western Kentucky (15-18), won their First Four game against Mississippi Valley State before losing to 1-seed Kentucky in the First Round
  • One of the March Madness factoids that gets thrown around every year -- but which is still true -- is that no team that lost in the quarterfinals of its conference tournament has ever won the national championship.  Of course, before 2018, no 16-seed ever beat a 1-seed, but it's happened twice now.  But if you're someone who takes these kinds of things into account, here are this year's NCAA Tournament teams that lost in their conference tournament quarterfinals (or before, as noted):
    • South 3-seed Iowa State
    • Midwest 3-seed Kentucky
    • Midwest 4-seed Purdue
    • South 4-seed Texas A&M (lost in the second round of the SEC Tournament)
    • East 5-seed Oregon
    • Midwest 6-seed Illinois
    • South 6-seed Mississippi
    • West 6-seed Missouri
    • West 7-seed Kansas
    • Midwest 7-seed UCLA
    • East 8-seed Mississippi State (lost in the second round of the SEC Tournament)
    • East 9-seed Baylor
    • Midwest 9-seed Georgia (lost in the first round of the SEC Tournament)
    • West 9-seed Oklahoma (lost in the second round of the SEC Tournament)
    • West 10-seed Arkansas (lost in the second round of the SEC Tournament)
    • East 10-seed Vanderbilt (lost in the first round of the SEC Tournament)
    • South 11-seed San Diego State
    • Midwest 11-seed Texas
    • Midwest 11-seed Xavier
  • Here are the ten teams in this year's NCAA Tournament with the most tournament appearances, but no NCAA championship.  I'm including the team's seed and region in this year's tournament, the number of NCAA Tournament appearances (not including vacated appearances), the overall rank in number of appearances, and last Final Four appearance, if applicable (* means a team has lost in a national title game, ** means the furthest the team has gone is the Final Four, and *** means the team has never been to a Final Four):
    • Texas** - 11-seed Midwest:  39 appearances (9th overall); 2003
    • Illinois* - 6-seed Midwest:  35 appearances (T-17th overall); 2005
    • Purdue* - 4-seed Midwest:  35 appearances (T-17th overall); 2024
    • Oklahoma* - 9-seed West:  34 appearances (19th overall); 2016
    • BYU*** - 6-seed East:  32 appearances (T-22nd overall); No Final Four
    • St. John's* - 2-seed West:  30 appearances (T-27th overall); 1985
    • Xavier*** - 11-seed Midwest:  30 appearances (T-27th overall); No Final Four
    • Missouri*** - 6-seed West:  29 appearances (T-30th overall); No Final Four
    • Gonzaga* - 8-seed Midwest:  27 appearances (T-36th overall); 2021
    • Tennessee*** - 2-seed Midwest:  27 appearances (T-36th overall); No Final Four
  • Fuck Purdue

Anyway, as I do every year, here are a couple lists of five teams each in a few categories that you should consider when filling out your brackets.  Expect there to be some contradictions, since that's the nature of predicting the NCAA Tournament.  Teams are in seed order.  So you don't think I'm entirely full of shit (or perhaps to prove that I am), I'll put in parentheses what I correctly predicted last years.

Teams with the best shot at winning it all (last year, I had UConn on this list):

1.  Houston (1-seed South).  With 30 wins, Kelvin Sampson's Cougars have won 27+ games seven times in the last eight years.  They are one of the best overall defensive teams in the country, second in the nation in opponents' points per game (giving up only 58.5 points per game), fourth in field goal percentage (opponents shoot only 38.3%), and fifth in steals.  They also protect the ball well, ranking 9th in fewest turnovers per game, and they're the best three-point shooting team in the NCAA Tournament, ranking fourth nationally in three-point field goal percentage (39.8%) In their second year in the Big 12, they won the regular season title outright by four games and the Big 12 Tournament.  They've only lost once since November, all four of their losses were to NCAA Tournament teams (Auburn, Alabama, San Diego State, and Texas Tech), they haven't lose by more than five points, and three of their four losses were in overtime.
Record against NCAA Tournament teams:  11-4

2.  Auburn (1-seed South).  As the #1 overall seed, the Tigers were the best team in the best conference, winning the SEC regular season title outright.  Much has been made about the fact that they lost three of their last four games, but those losses were to top four seeds in the NCAA Tournament (at Texas A&M, at home to Alabama, and in the SEC Tournament semis to Tennessee).  They can score, they're the second-best shot-blocking team in the country, have the 7th best opponents' three-point percentage (29.2%), and they don't turn the ball over much (ranking sixth in the country with only 9.2 turnovers per game).  On top of that, they've been battle-tested, with all but nine of their games coming against fellow NCAA Tournament teams.
Record against NCAA Tournament teams:  19-5

3.  Florida (1-seed West).  The SEC Tournament champion Gators seem to be the sexy pick to win it all, so I'll say why not?  They're a pretty well-rounded team:  third in the country in scoring (averaging 85.4 points per game) and rebounding (42 board per game), Top 15 in opponents' FG percentage (39.8%), three point percentage (29.8%), and rebounding margin (+8.2), and Top 30 in the country in three pointers made per game (9.9) and blocks per game (4.7).  They have four guys averaging in double figures, and they don't rely on any one person.
Record against NCAA Tournament teams:  15-4

4.  Duke (1-seed East).  I think Duke has the easiest path to the Final Four of any of the 1-seeds, but whether they can win a 6th national title depends on the health of Cooper Flagg.  They won both the regular season title (outright) and the tournament in a top-heavy ACC, and they've only lost once since November -- and only three times all season, all to NCAA Tournament teams (Kentucky, Kansas, and Clemson) and none by more than six points.  They score, they shoot well from the field, three-point line, and free throw line, they rebound well, they distribute the ball well, they don't turn the ball over very much, and they don't get into much foul trouble.  They're #1 in the nation in scoring margin, FG percentage margin, and Top 10 in rebounding margin.  And their defense is solid too, ranking in the Top 10 in points allowed and opponents' FG percentage.
Record against NCAA Tournament teams:  9-3

5.  Tennessee (2-seed Midwest).  I think all the 2-seeds are very good, but I put the Vols slightly ahead of the other three.  They've been ranked in the Top 10 since Thanksgiving, and while they have seven losses, none of them are "bad" losses.  They shine on the defensive end, ranking 11th in points allowed (63 per game), third in opponents' FG percentage (38.2%), and first in opponents' three-point FG percentage (27.8%).  On top of that, they're in the Top 20 nationally in scoring margin, FG percentage margin, and three-point percentage margin.  Like Auburn and Florida, they have played a gauntlet in the SEC, and their path to the Elite Eight is relatively easy compared to some of the other 2-seeds.
Record against NCAA Tournament teams:  16-7

Final Four sleepers (teams seeded 4 or higher) (last year, I had Alabama on this list, but did not have NC State on this list):

1.  Texas A&M (4-seed South).  The Aggies have never been to a Final Four, and I'd be lying if I didn't say that have a tough road to get to their first.  However, they are one of the best defensive teams in the country (25th in opponents' FG percentage), tops in the nation in offensive rebounding, third in rebounding margin, and fourth overall in rebounds per game, which is never a bad thing.  They get to the free throw line 25 times a game.  In addition to a tough SEC schedule (where they did beat Auburn, among others), the Aggies beat fellow NCAA Tournament teams Texas Tech, Purdue, and Creighton in the non-conference slate on neutral courts.
Record against NCAA Tournament teams:  11-9

2.  Maryland (4-seed West).  The Terps have been kind of a sleeper all year.  Even as a Big Ten basketball fan, I feel like I haven't heard much about them, but they found their stride down the stretch, going 12-3 in their last 15 games.  They shoot the ball well from deep and have a Top 10 adjusted defensive efficiency.  Projected lottery pick and freshman Derek Queen is nearly averaging a double-double, and he could improve his NBA draft stock even more with a strong tournament.
Record against NCAA Tournament teams:  7-5

3.  Michigan (5-seed South).  First-year head coach Dusty May has proven he can win in March, guiding FAU to their Cinderella Final Four run (and within two points of going to the national title game) two years ago as a 9-seed.  The Wolverines won the Big Ten Tournament last weekend, and are probably underseeded as a 5-seed (it sounds like the Selection Committee already had its seeds finalized before the Big Ten Tournament title game was over).  With two athletic 7-footers -- FAU transfer Vlad Goldin and Yale transfer Danny Wolf -- they present a matchup nightmare for most teams.  After losing three of five heading into the Big Ten Tournament, the Wolverines turned it on, beating three ranked, Top 4 seed teams (Purdue, Maryland, and Wisconsin) to win the conference tournament.
Record against NCAA Tournament teams:  8-7

4.  Mississippi (6-seed South).  While the Rebels have also never made a Final Four, their coach, Chris Beard, took Texas Tech to the national title game in 2019.  They have a small lineup, but they do rank in the Top 30 nationally on both sides of the ball, and they are one of the best teams in the country at protecting the ball.  All eleven of their losses came against NCAA Tournament teams, and they've beaten the likes of Tennessee, Alabama, BYU, and Louisville.  I realize it's going to be a sexy pick to take UNC or San Diego State over the Rebels in the First Round, but if they can win that game, a hamstrung Iowa State team (or Lipscomb) awaits in the Second Round, and they have a puncher's chance against anyone else in the South Region.
Record against NCAA Tournament teams:  11-11

5.  BYU (6-seed East).  First-year head coach Kevin Young has made a smooth transition from being an NBA assistant to a college head coach.  The Cougars have been one of the best teams in the nation over the last month, losing only to 1-seed Houston in the Big 12 Tournament semis since February 11, and beating 3-seed Iowa State (twice), 4-seed Arizona, and 7-seed Kansas during that stretch.  They're Top 30 in the country in scoring, FG percentage, three-point percentage, and rebounding margin, and Top 10 in three pointers made per game and assists per game.
Record against NCAA Tournament teams:  5-5

Teams seeded 4 or better who may not make it to the second weekend (last year, I had Auburn on this list, but did not have Baylor, Kansas, or Kentucky on this list):

1.  Duke (1-seed East).  Duke is really good, but this was a really down year for the ACC, so it's hard to gauge just how much of Duke's record is because of how good they are or because of how bad the ACC was.  When they beat Louisville in the ACC Tournament title game, it was the first time they played a ranked opponent since December 4.  If Cooper Flagg's injury prevents him from playing in the Second Round, either Mississippi State or Baylor could pull off the upset and send the Blue Devils packing early.
Record against NCAA Tournament teams:  9-3

2.  Iowa State (3-seed South).  The Cyclones are always one of those teams that looks good during the regular season, but can't quite make it happen in the Big Dance.  Since 2000, they have been to 12 NCAA Tournaments.  During that time, they've lost to double-digit seeds in the first round as many times as they have been to the Sweet 16 (four).  Assuming they beat 14-seed Lipscomb in the First Round, they will face a tough matchup in the Second Round against 6-seed Ole Miss or one of the play-in teams -- San Diego State, who is always tough, or North Carolina, which has to have a chip on its shoulder based on how much everyone has nearly universally questioned whether they deserve to be in the tournament.  Plus, the Cyclones' second-leading scorer and assist leader, Keshon Gilbert, has been ruled out for the tournament, which is a significant blow.
Record against NCAA Tournament teams:  6-6

3.  Wisconsin (3-seed East).  The Badgers are good, but not great, and they're probably overseeeded at a 3-seed.  Since Greg Gard guided Wisconsin to the national title game in 2015 in his first year at the helm in Madison, The Badgers went to the Sweet 16 in both of the following two seasons, but haven't made it to the second weekend since 2017.  That includes two First Round losses as a 5-seed (in 2019 to Oregon and last year to James Madison), as well as Second Round loss in 2022 as a 3-seed to 11-seed Iowa State.  First Round opponent Montana is second in the nation in FG percentage, and if the Badgers can get past the Grizzlies, they'll face one of the hottest teams in the country in the high-scoring BYU Cougars or one of the best defensive teams in the country in VCU (which has only lost twice in 2025).
Record against NCAA Tournament teams:  5-8

4.  Kentucky (3-seed Midwest).  Fuck Kentucky.  I think the Wildcats are overseeded at a 3-seed.  Sure, they played a really tough schedule, but they were inconsistent this year, and I think they got a bump up in their seed simply because of how good the SEC was this year.  However, after going to seven Elite Eights, four Final Fours, and two national title games  (winning one championship) between 2010 and 2019, they haven't made it to the second weekend of the tournament since 2019, including losses in the First Round last year as a 3-seed to 14-seed Oakland and in 2022 as a 2-seed to 15-seed St. Peter's.  I think they'll likely get past Troy in the First Round, but 6-seed Illinois is an Elite Eight team from last year, and those First Four teams (Texas and Xavier) will be have the "prove we belong" mentality, which could spell trouble for UK.
Record against NCAA Tournament teams:  13-10

5.  Purdue (4-seed Midwest).  The Boilermakers have a long and storied history . . . of underachieving in March.  Purdue has been a top-4 seed in the NCAA Tournament 17 times since seeding began in 1979, failing to advance to the Sweet 16 eight of those times.  Sure, they made it to the national title game last year, but the year before that, they became the second 1-seed in NCAA Tournament history to lose to a 16-seed in the first round.  The year before, they made it the Sweet 16, only to be ousted by 15-seed St. Peter's.  The year before that, they lost to 13-seed North Texas in the first round.  This year, there's no Zach Edey, and Purdue is probably overseeded on the 4 line.  They stumbled down the stretch, losing six of their last nine games.  High Point can't be overlooked in the First Round, and if the Boilers make it past them, either Clemson or McNeese will be a tough matchup.
Record against NCAA Tournament teams:  7-8

Teams seeded 12 or higher with the best chance of pulling an upset in the first round (last year, I had James Madison on this list, but did not have Grand Canyon, Oakland, or Yale on this list):

1.  Colorado State (12-seed West).  It says something about the Selection Committee's inability to seed correctly that 12-seed Colorado State is a favorite against 5-seed Memphis.  The Rams have played really well over the last month, winning their last ten on their way to the Mountain West Tournament title.  They shoot the ball very well from both inside and outside the arc.  Memphis is overseeded as a 5-seed.  The AAC was a one-bid league this year, and the Tigers' NET ranking is actually lower than the Rams' NET.  Plus, Memphis may be without starting guard Tyrese Hunter due to an injury.
Record against NCAA Tournament teams:  3-6

2.  McNeese (12-seed Midwest).  Last year, the Cowboys were in a similar position -- a 12-seed playing against 5-seed Gonzaga.  They were 30-3 entering last year's tournament, and were one of the consistent picks for a 12-5 upset.  But it was their first NCAA Tournament appearance in 22 years, and Gonzaga ran them out of the gym.  Will Wade's crew is back again as a 12-seed, playing Clemson this time around.  They cruised through the Southland again and have lost only once since December.  They shoot well from three and force turnovers well, both good stats for an upset.
Record against NCAA Tournament teams:  0-3

3.  UC San Diego (12-seed South).  The Tritons stormed into the NCAA Tournament in their first year of eligibility, and they hold a 15-game winning streak.  They shoot well (37% from three-point land), they hold their opponents to 61.6 points per game (6th in the nation) and only 39.8% from the field (11th nationally), their second in the nation in scoring margin (+18.1 points per game), they force turnovers (first in the nation in turnover margin and 4th in the nation in steals per game), and they don't turn the ball over themselves (tied for first in the nation in turnovers per game, with only 8.7), ranking in the Top 10 nationally in both offensive and defensive turnover percentage.  If they can find a way to neutralize (or at least limit) Michigan's two 7-footers, they could win their first-ever NCAA Tournament game.
Record against NCAA Tournament teams:  1-1

4.  Akron (13-seed East).  Akron has never won an NCAA Tournament game, but this could be the year.  The Zips are 21-1 since December 30, shooting 60% from inside the arc and 38% from outside the arc during that time.  Overall, they're 8th in the country in points per game (84.6), 6th in three-pointers made per game (10.9), 4th in assists per game, and Top 25 in rebounds per game.  Their First Round opponent, Arizona, is good, but not great, and was 5-6 over their last eleven games after starting 17-6.  The Wildcats are not a great defensive team, and their weakness -- opponents' three-point percentage (tied for 183rd nationally out of 364 teams) and made three-pointers per game (tied for 310th nationally) -- plays into Akron's strength.
Record against NCAA Tournament teams:  2-2

5.  High Point (13-seed Midwest).  The Panthers are another first-time NCAA Tournament team, but don't let that fool you.  They went 29-5, won both the Big South regular season title (outright by three games) and tournament, and they also shoot the ball well from inside and outside the three-point line.  Purdue is streaky and, as discussed above, has a history of underperforming against double-digit seeds.  If the Boilers are off and the Panthers are on, it could be another early exit for Matt Painter's team.
Record against NCAA Tournament teams:  1-1

Sunday, March 16, 2025

Final Championship Week Predictions: "All the Way From Memphis"

We're here, folks.  Selection Sunday.  Let us rejoice and be glad.  Today's Championship Week song is Mott the Hoople's "All The Way From Memphis," in honor of the Memphis Tigers avoiding an upset loss to Tulane that would have stolen a bid from those of us waiting too anxiously for the bracket reveal.

Here's what happened yesterday and what we have to look forward to today:

  • In the ACC title game, 1-seed Duke downed 2-seed Louisville, 73-62.  The Blue Devils will be playing in their 47th and 4th in a row.
  • In the America East championship game, 1-seed Bryant crushed 3-seed Maine, to clinch the Bulldogs' second NCAA Tournament appearance and first since 2022.
  • In the Big 12 championship, top seed Houston overcame 3-seed Arizona, 72-64.  The Cougars will be playing in their 26th NCAA Tournament and 7th in a row.
  • In the Big East title game, 1-seed St. John's made easy work of 2-seed Creighton, 82-66.  The Red Storm will be playing in their 31st NCAA Tournament and first since 2019.
  • In the Big West title game, top seed UC San Diego topped 2-seed UC Irvine, 75-61. The Tritons will be playing in their first-ever NCAA Tournament.  So that's pretty exciting.
  • In the C-USA championship game, 1-seed Liberty beat 2-seed Jacksonville State, 79-67.  The Flames will be playing in their 6th NCAA Tournament and first since 2021.
  • In the MAAC title game, 6-seed Mount St. Mary's trounced 4-seed Iona, 63-49. The Mountaineers will be playing in their 7th NCAA Tournament and first since 2021.]
  • In the MAC championship game, 1-seed Akron got a layup with 2 seconds left to beat 2-seed Miami (OH), 76-74. The Zips will be playing in their 7th NCAA Tournament appearance and second in a row.
  • In the MEAC championship, top seed Norfolk State got a late game-winning free throw to beat 2-seed South Carolina State, 66-65.  The Spartans will be playing in their 4th NCAA Tournament and first since 2022.
  • In the Mountain West title game, 2-seed Colorado State dropped 5-seed Boise State, 69-55.  The Rams will be playing fin their 13th NCAA Tournament and second in a row.
  • In the SWAC championship game, 5-seed Alabama State secured a spot in the First Four by beating 2-seed Jackson State, 60-56.  The Hornets will be playing in their 5th NCAA Tournament and first since 2011.
  • In the WAC title game, 2-seed Grand Canyon outlasted 1-Utah Valley, 89-82.  The Antelopes will be playing in their 4th NCAA Tournament and third in a row.
  • In the AAC semifinals, much to the delight of bubble teams around the country, 1-seed Memphis escaped with a 78-77 win over 4-seed Tulane, and 3-seed UAB took out 2-seed North Texas 66-56.  When they meet in this afternoon's title game, the Tigers (who are a lock for the tournament anyway) will be seeking their 29th NCAA Tournament appearance and first since 2023, and the Blazers will be seeking their 18th and second in a row.
  • In the A-10 semis, top seed VCU staved off 4-seed Loyola (IL), 62-55, and 2-seed George Mason downed 6-seed St. Joseph's, 74-64.  In this afternoon's championship game, the Rams (who may be a lock anyway) will be playing for their 20th NCAA Tournament berth and first since 2023, and the Patriots will be playing for their 7th berth and first since 2011.
  • In the Big Ten semifinals, 5-seed Wisconsin upset 1-seed Michigan State, 77-74, and 3-seed Michigan got a Tyus Edney-esque full court drive for a buzzer-beating layup from Tre Donaldson to beat 2-seed Maryland, 81-80, to advance to this afternoon's title game.  Both are locks for the NCAA Tournament.  The Badgers will be playing in their 28th NCAA Tournament and second in a row, and the Wolverines will be playing in their 32nd and first since 2022.
  • In the Ivy League semis, top seed Yale survived against 4-seed Princeton, 59-57, and 2-seed Cornell pulled away from 3-seed Dartmouth for a 87-71 win.  When they meet in today's title game, the Bulldogs will be playing for their 8th trip to the Big Dance and second in a row, while the Big Red will be playing for their 6th trip and first since 2010 (when they went to the Sweet 16 as a 12-seed).
  • In the SEC quarters, 4-seed Tennessee upset 1-seed Auburn, 70-65, and 2-seed Florida crushed 3-seed Alabama, 104-82, to advance to today's championship game.  Both are locks for the tournament.  The Volunteers will be playing in their 27th NCAA Tournament and 7th in a row, and the Gators with be playing in their 25th and second in a row.
  • Conference tournaments with games today: 5
  • Conference tournaments with title games today:  5
  • Bubble teams that won yesterday:  Colorado State, Liberty, Memphis, UC San Diego, VCU
  • Bubble teams that lost yesterday:  Boise State, North Texas, UC Irvine
With that, here are the tournaments starting today, the tournaments with games today, bids up for grab today, who has already clinched an automatic berth, and my predictions for the remaining conference tournaments.

Tournaments starting today
-None

Tournaments with games today
-AAC
-Atlantic 10
-Big Ten
-Ivy League
-SEC

Bids up for grabs today (all times Eastern)
-Ivy League:  (1) Yale vs. (2) Cornell (12 p.m.; ESPN2)
-SEC:  (2) Florida vs. (4) Tennessee (1 p.m.; ESPN)
-Atlantic 10:  (1) VCU vs. (2) George Mason (1 p.m.; CBS)
-AAC: (1) Memphis vs. (3) UAB (3 p.m.; ESPN)
-Big Ten: (3) Michigan vs. (5) Wisconsin (3:30 p.m.; CBS)

Already clinched automatic berths (I will add in parentheses the NCAA tournament appearances for each school, including the bid just clinched and last NCAA Tournament appearance where applicable, and for conferences whose tournaments have not yet ended, I'll list the date of the championship game)
-AAC (March 16)
-ACC:  Duke (47; 2024)
-America East:  Bryant (2; 2022)
-Atlantic 10 (March 16)
-Atlantic Sun:  Lipscomb (2; 2018)
-Big 12:  Houston (27; 2024)
-Big East:  St. John's (31; 2019)
-Big Sky:  Montana (13; 2019)
-Big South:  High Point (1)
-Big Ten (March 16)
-Big West:  UC San Diego (1)
-Coastal:  UNC Wilmington (7; 2017)
-Conference USA:  Liberty (6; 2021)
-Horizon:  Robert Morris (9; 2015)
-Ivy League (March 16)
-MAAC:  Mount St. Mary's (7; 2021)
-MAC:  Akron 7; 2024)
-MEAC:  Norfolk State (4; 2022)
-Missouri Valley:  Drake (8; 2024)
-Mountain West:  Colorado State (13; 2024)
-Northeast Conference:  St. Francis (PA) (2; 1991)
-Ohio Valley:  SIU Edwardsville (1)
-Patriot League:  American (4; 2014)
-SEC (March 16)
-Southern Conference: Wofford (6; 2019)
-Southland:  McNeese (4; 2024)
-Summit:  Omaha (1)
-Sun Belt:  Troy (3; 2017)
-SWAC:  Alabama State (5; 2011)
-WAC:  Grand Canyon (4; 2024)
-West Coast:  Gonzaga (27; 2024)

Remaining Tournaments (all times are Eastern)

AAC (March 12-16; Fort Worth)
3/16 – Finals
3:15 p.m. (ESPN) (1) Memphis vs. (3) UAB.  Predicted winner:  Memphis

Atlantic 10 (March 12-16; Washington, DC)
3/16 – Finals
1 p.m. (CBS) (1) VCU vs. (2) George Mason.  Predicted winner:  VCU

Big Ten (March 12-16; Indianapolis)
3/16 – Finals
3:30 p.m. (CBS) (3) Michigan vs. (5) Wisconsin.  Predicted winner:  Wisconsin

Ivy League (March 15-16; Providence)
3/16 - Finals
12 p.m. (ESPN2) (1) Yale vs. (2) Cornell.  Predicted winner:  Yale

SEC (March 12-16; Nashville)
3/16 – Finals
1 p.m. (ESPN) (2) Florid vs. (4) Tennessee.  Predicted winner:  Tennessee

Saturday, March 15, 2025

Updated Championship Week Predictions: "What's Left of the Flag"

Today's Championship Week song is Flogging Molly's "What's Left of the Flag" because we've got what's left of Championship Week today and tomorrow, so let's raise it (whatever that means) and, well, it's St. Patrick's Day observed.

We're getting down to the nitty gritty, with 12 bids up for grabs today, and 5 conferences with semifinals.  The bubble has shrunk a little, as teams that were close to being locks won and all but secured at large spots should they not win their conference titles.

Here's what happened yesterday and what we have to look forward to today:

  • In the ACC semis, 1-seed Duke survived a scare and beat 5-seed North Carolina, 74-71, 2-seed Louisville squeaked one out against 3-seed Clemson, 76-73, to advance to tonight's title game.  Both teams are locks for the NCAA Tournament.  The Blue Devils will be playing in their 47th and 4th in a row, and the Cardinals will be playing in their 44th and first since 2019.
  • In the Big 12 semifinals, top seed Houston crushed 4-seed BYU, 74-54, and 3-seed Arizona topped 2-seed Texas Tech, 86-60, advancing to this evening's championship games.  Both teams are locks.  The Cougars will be playing in their 26th NCAA Tournament and 7th in a row, and the Wildcats will be playing in their 39th and 4th in a row.
  • In the Big East semis, 1-seed St. John's disposed of 5-seed Marquette, 79-63, and 2-seed Creighton solidified its NCAA Tournament resume with an 72-63 victory over 3-seed UConn.  When they meet in tonight's title game, both will be locks for the Bid Dance.  The Red Storm will be playing in their 31st NCAA Tournament and first since 2019, and the Bluejays will be playing in their 27th and 5th in a row.
  • In the Big West semifinals, top seed UC San Diego trounced 5-seed UC Santa Barbara, 69 (ha!)-51, and 2-seed UC Irvine dominated 7-seed Cal Poly.  When they face off in tonight's championship game, the Tritons will be playing for their first-ever NCAA Tournament bid, and the Anteaters will be playing for their 3rd and first since 2019.
  • In the C-USA semis, 1-seed Liberty came back from a 13-point deficit in the last ten minutes to overtake 4-seed Kennesaw State, 81-79, and 2-seed Jacksonville State got two free throws with 22 seconds left to top 3-seed Middle Tennessee State, 70-68.  In tonight's title game, the Flames will be playing for their 6th NCAA Tournament bid and first since 2021, and the Gamecocks will be playing for their 3rd bid and first since 2022.
  • In the MAAC semifinals, we had two upsets, destroying the chance at a title game between two teams that have never been to the NCAA Tournament.  4-seed Iona upset top seed Quinnipiac, 81-73, and 6-seed Mount St. Mary's upset 2-seed Merrimack, 57-55.  When they match up in tonight's championship game, the Gaels will be playing for their 17th NCAA Tournament berth and first since 2023, and the Mountaineers will be playing for their 7th berth and first since 2021.
  • In the MAC semis, 1-seed Akron beat 4-seed Toledo in a high-scoring 100-90 game, and 2-seed Miami (OH) downed 3-seed Kent State, 72-64.  When they battle in tonight's title game, the Zips will be seeking their 7th NCAA Tournament appearance and second in a row, and the RedHawks will be seeking their 18th appearance and first since 2007.
  • In the MEAC semifinals, top seed Norfolk State held off 5-seed Morgan State, 58-55, and 2-seed South Carolina State crushed 6-seed North Carolina Central, 88-67.  In this afternoon's championship game, the Spartans will be playing for their 4th NCAA Tournament berth and first since 2022, and the Bulldogs will be playing for their 6th berth and first since 2003.
  • In the Mountain West semis, the two bubble teams who needed wins the most came through, as 5-seed Boise State upset 1-seed New Mexico, 72-69, and 2-seed Colorado State dropped 3-seed Utah State, 83-72.  When they meet in this evening's title game, the Broncos (who are probably in now) will be playing for their 11th NCAA Tournament bid and 4th in a row, while the Rams (who may probably be in now) will be playing for their 13th berth and 2nd in a row.
  • In the SWAC semifinals, 2-seed Jackson State destroyed 3-seed Bethune-Cookman, 71-50, and 5-seed Alabama State eked out a 64-62 win over 8-seed Grambling.  When they face off in tonight's championship game, the Tigers will be seeking their 4th NCAA Tournament bid and first since 2007, and the Hornets will be seeking their 5th bid and first since 2011.
  • In the WAC semis, 1-Utah Valley got one game closer to the dream with a 68-56 win over 5-seed Seattle, and 2-seed Grand Canyon ruined 3-seed Cal Baptist's dream with a 75-66 win.  In tonight's title game, the Wolverines will be playing for their first-ever trip to the Big Dance, and the Antelopes will be playing for their  4th trip and third in a row.
  • In the AAC quarterfinals, 1-seed Memphis escaped with a win over 8-seed Wichita State, 83-80, 2-seed North Texas dominated 10-seed Tulsa, 77-59, 3-seed UAB made easy work of 6-seed East Carolina, 94-77, and 4-seed Tulane dropped 5-seed FAU, 83-76, to advance to today's semis.
  • In the A-10 quarters, top seed VCU cruised past 8-seed St. Bonaventure, 76-59, 2-seed George Mason won the battled of the Georges, beating 7-seed George Washington, 80-65, 6-seed St. Joseph's upset 3-seed Dayton in OT, 73-68 (and ending the Flyers' slim NCAA Tournament hopes), and 4-seed Loyola (IL) downed 5-seed St. Louis, 72-64, to advance to today's semifinals.
  • In the Big Ten quarterfinals, 1-seed Michigan State ousted 8-seed Oregon, 74-64, 2-seed Maryland stomped 7-seed Illinois, 88-65, 3-seed Michigan beat 6-seed Purdue, 86-68, and 5-seed Wisconsin dominated 4-seed UCLA, 86-70, to advance to today's semifinals.
  • In the SEC quarters, 1-seed Auburn survived against 8-seed Mississippi State, 62-57, 2-seed Florida dropped 7-seed Missouri, 95-81, 3-seed Alabama annihilated 6-seed Kentucky, 99-70, and 4-seed Tennessee finished off 13-seed Texas, 83-72, to advance to today's semis.
  • Conference tournaments starting today:  1
  • Conference tournaments with games today: 17
  • Conference tournaments with title games today:  12
  • Conference tournaments with semifinals today:  5 (AAC, A-10, Big Ten, Ivy, SEC)
  • Here are the teams still playing in the conference tournaments that have never been to the NCAA Tournament (not including teams who are ineligible for this year's NCAA Tournament or who didn't qualify for their conference tournament):
    • America East:  3-seed Maine
    • Big West:  1-seed UC San Diego
    • WAC:  1-seed Utah Valley
  • Bubble teams that won yesterday:  Boise State, Colorado State, Liberty, Memphis, North Texas, UC San Diego, UC Irvine, VCU
  • Bubble teams that lost yesterday:  Dayton, New Mexico, North Carolina, Texas, Utah State
With that, here are the tournaments starting today, the tournaments with games today, bids up for grab today, who has already clinched an automatic berth, and my predictions for the remaining conference tournaments.

Tournaments starting today
-Ivy League

Tournaments with games today
-AAC
-ACC
-America East
-Atlantic 10
-Big 12
-Big East
-Big Ten
-Big West
-Conference USA
-Ivy League
-MAAC
-MAC
-MEAC
-Mountain West
-SEC
-SWAC
-WAC

Bids up for grabs today (all times Eastern)
-America East:  (3) Maine at (1) Bryant (11 a.m.; ESPN2)
-MEAC:  (1) Norfolk State vs. (2) South Carolina State (1:00 p.m.; ESPN2)
-Big 12:  (1) Houston vs. (3) Arizona (6 p.m.; ESPN)
-Mountain West: (2) Colorado State vs. (5) Boise State (6 p.m.; CBS)
-Big East:  (1) St. John's vs. (2) Creighton (6:30 p.m.; Fox)
-MAAC:  (4) Iona vs. (6) Mount St. Mary's (7:30 p.m.; ESPNU)
-MAC:  (1) Akron vs. (2) Miami (OH) (7:30 p.m.; ESPN2)
-ACC:  (1) Duke vs. (2) Louisville (8:30 p.m.; ESPN)
-Conference USA:  (1) Liberty vs. (2) Jacksonville State (8:30 p.m.; CBSSN)
-SWAC:  (2) Jackson State vs. (5) Alabama State (9:30 p.m.; ESPNU)
-Big West: (1) UC San Diego vs. (2) UC Irvine (9:40 p.m.; ESPN2)
-WAC: (1) Utah Valley vs. (2) Grand Canyon (11:40 p.m.; ESPN2)

Already clinched automatic berths (I will add in parentheses the NCAA tournament appearances for each school, including the bid just clinched and last NCAA Tournament appearance where applicable, and for conferences whose tournaments have not yet ended, I'll list the date of the championship game)
-AAC (March 16)
-ACC (March 15)
-America East (March 15)
-Atlantic 10 (March 16)
-Atlantic Sun:  Lipscomb (2; 2018)
-Big 12 (March 15)
-Big East (March 15)
-Big Sky:  Montana (13; 2019)
-Big South:  High Point (1)
-Big Ten (March 16)
-Big West (March 15)
-Coastal:  UNC Wilmington (7; 2017)
-Conference USA (March 15)
-Horizon:  Robert Morris (9; 2015)
-Ivy League (March 16)
-MAAC (March 15)
-MAC (March 15)
-MEAC (March 15)
-Missouri Valley:  Drake (8; 2024)
-Mountain West (March 15)
-Northeast Conference:  St. Francis (PA) (2; 1991)
-Ohio Valley:  SIU Edwardsville (1)
-Patriot League:  American (4; 2014)
-SEC (March 16)
-Southern Conference: Wofford (6; 2019)
-Southland:  McNeese (4; 2024)
-Summit:  Omaha (1)
-Sun Belt:  Troy (3; 2017)
-SWAC (March 15)
-WAC (March 15)
-West Coast:  Gonzaga (27; 2024)

Remaining Tournaments (all times are Eastern)

AAC (March 12-16; Fort Worth)
3/15 – Semifinals
3 p.m. (ESPN2) (1) Memphis vs. (4) Tulane.  Predicted winner:  Memphis
5 p.m. (ESPN2) (2) North Texas vs. (3) UAB.  Predicted winner:  North Texas
3/16 – Finals
3:15 p.m. (ESPN) (1) Memphis vs. (2) North Texas.  Predicted winner:  Memphis

ACC (March 11-15; Charlotte)
3/15 – Finals
8:30 p.m. (ESPN) (1) Duke vs. (2) Louisville.  Predicted winner:  Duke

America East (March 8, 11, 15; campus of higher seed)
3/15 – Finals
11 a.m. (ESPN2) (3) Maine at (1) Bryant.  Predicted winner:  Maine

Atlantic 10 (March 12-16; Washington, DC)
3/15 – Semifinals
1 p.m. (CBSSN) (1) VCU vs. (4) Loyola (IL).  Predicted winner:  VCU
3:30 p.m. (CBSSN) (2) George Mason vs. (6) St. Joseph's.  Predicted winner:  George Mason
3/16 – Finals
1 p.m. (CBS) (1) VCU vs. (2) George Mason.  Predicted winner:  VCU

Big 12 (March 11-15; Kansas City)
3/15 – Finals
6 p.m. (ESPN) (1) Houston vs. (3) Arizona.  Predicted winner:  Houston

Big East (March 12-15; New York)
3/15 – Finals
6:30 p.m. (Fox) (1) St. John's vs. (2) Creighton.  Predicted winner:  St. John's

Big Ten (March 12-16; Indianapolis)
3/15 – Semifinals
1 p.m. (CBS) (1) Michigan State vs. (5) Wisconsin.  Predicted winner:  Michigan State
3:30 p.m. (CBS) (2) Maryland vs. (3) Michigan.  Predicted winner:  Michigan
3/16 – Finals
3:30 p.m. (CBS) (1) Michigan State vs. (3) Michigan.  Predicted winner:  Michigan State

Big West (March 12-15; Henderson, NV)
3/15 – Finals
9:40 p.m. (ESPN2) (1) UC San Diego vs. (2) UC Irvine.  Predicted winner:  UC Irvine

Conference USA (March 11-15; Huntsville, AL)
3/15 – Finals
8:30 p.m. (CBSSN) (1) Liberty vs. (2) Jacksonville State.  Predicted winner:  Liberty

Ivy League (March 15-16; Providence)
3/15 - Semifinals
11 a.m. (ESPNU) (1) Yale vs. (4) Princeton.  Predicted winner:  Yale
2 p.m. (ESPNews) (2) Cornell vs. (3) Dartmouth.  Predicted winner:  Cornell  
3/16 - Finals
12 p.m. (ESPN2) (1) Yale vs. (2) Cornell.  Predicted winner:  Yale

MAAC (March 11-15; Atlantic City, NJ)
3/15 – Finals
7:30 p.m. (ESPNU) (4) Iona vs. (6) Mt. St. Mary's.  Predicted winner:  Iona

MAC (March 13-15; Cleveland)
3/15 – Finals
7:30 p.m. (ESPN2) (1) Akron vs. (2) Miami (OH).  Predicted winner:  Akron

MEAC (March 12-15; Norfolk, VA)
3/15 – Final
1:00 p.m. (ESPN2) (1) Norfolk State vs. (2) South Carolina State.  Predicted winner:  Norfolk State

Mountain West (March 12-15; Paradise, NV)
3/15 – Finals
6 p.m. (CBS) (2) Colorado State vs. (5) Boise State.  Predicted winner:  Boise State

SEC (March 12-16; Nashville)
3/15 – Semifinals
1 p.m. (ESPN) (1) Auburn vs. (4) Tennessee.  Predicted winner:  Auburn
3:30 p.m. (ESPN) (2) Florida vs. (3) Alabama.  Predicted winner:  Alabama
3/16 – Finals
1 p.m. (ESPN) (1) Auburn vs. (3) Alabama.  Predicted winner:  Auburn

SWAC (March 11-15; College Park, GA)
3/15 – Finals
9:30 p.m. (ESPNU) (2) Jackson State vs. (5) Alabama State.  Predicted winner:  Jackson State

WAC (March 11-15; first round at St. George, UT; remaining rounds at Paradise, NV)
3/15 – Finals
11:40 p.m. (ESPN2) (1) Utah Valley vs. (2) Grand Canyon.  Predicted winner:  Grand Canyon