Tuesday Top Ten: NCAA Tournament Edition

This year's NCAA Tournament brackets have been announced, and like the last few years, I think this will be another unpredictable NCAA Tournament.  While there are a handful of top teams, I still think this thing is wide open, and there are about eight to ten teams who I think could legitimately win it all.  Or they could all lose before the end of the first weekend.  I have already filled out 116 brackets, and I have zero confidence in any of them.  

Here are a couple initial random thoughts and fun facts:

• As with last year, I don't think any 1-seeds have an easy path to the Final Four.  I wouldn't be surprised if none of them make it to San Antonio or if all four of them do (especially if Duke's Copper Flagg is able to play).
• As always, I would not be surprised if all of the 12-seeds beat all of the 5-seeds.  Or none.  But I would be more surprised if none of them win.
• The SEC has an NCAA Tournament record 14 teams in the tournament, which is over 20% of the field.
• On the other side of the coin, the ACC only has 4 teams in the tournament, the least it has had since 2013.
• Kansas is a 7-seed, which is the lowest the Jayhawks have been seeded since 2000, when they were an 8-seed, and it's the first time since then that they haven't been a top four seed. 
• North Carolina absolutely did not deserve to get the final at-large bid, which probably means they'll make a surprise run to the Sweet 16.
• We have a potentially intriguing matchup in the Second Round in the West if 10-seed Arkansas and 2-seed St. John's, coached respectively by former national championship Kentucky head coaches John Calipari and Rick Pitino, both win their first round games.
• Another potentially interesting Second Round matchup is in the South, if 1-seed Auburn and 8-seed Louisville both advance, as Louisville is thought to be underseeded, and the game will be played in Lexington, Kentucky, a little more than an hour east of Louisville.
• We have four teams in this year's field who are making their NCAA Tournament debuts (at the D-1 level, anyway):
• UC San Diego (12-seed South)
• High Point (13-seed Midwest)
• Omaha (15-seed West)
• SIU-Edwardsville (16-seed Midwest)
• By winning the Big West Tournament, the UC San Diego Tritons are not only in the Big Dance for the first time, but made it in their first year of D-1 eligibility, which, according to one article I read, is only the third time in the last 50+ years that has happened.  I couldn't easily figure out the other instances, so I'll leave that to you.
• Of the 18 schools with 35 or more NCAA Tournament appearances (including this year) -- Kentucky, North Carolina, Kansas, UCLA, Duke, Indiana, Louisville, Villanova, Texas, Michigan State, Marquette, Notre Dame, Syracuse, UConn, Arkansas, Arizona, Illinois, and Purdue -- only four didn't receive bids to this year's NCAA Tournament (Indiana, Villanova, Notre Dame, and Syracuse).
• The longest drought between NCAA Tournament appearance for any team in this year's tournament is NEC champion St. Francis (PA) (one of the play-in 16-seeds in the South Region), who is in the NCAA Tournament for the first time since 1991.  The Red Flash's 34-year span between NCAA Tournament appearances doesn't hold a candle to the longest span between appearances.  Here are the schools that have gone 40 or more years between NCAA Tournament appearances:
• 66 years:  Harvard (1946-2012)
• 54 years:  Yale (1962-2016)
• 47 years:
• Brown (1939-1986)
• Duquesne (1977-2024)
• Stanford (1942-1989)
• Wisconsin (1947-1994)
• 43 years:  Furman (1980-2023)
• 42 years:  Air Force (1962-2004)
• 41 years:  Iowa State (1944-1985)
• At 16-17, St. Francis is also the only team in this year's tournament with a losing record.  Since the tournament expanded to 68 teams in 2011 and adopted the "First Four" format, teams with losing records -- who, granted, are usually teams from low-major conferences that win their conference tournament -- are 5-7 in the NCAA Tournament.  Here's a list of the others:
• 2023:  Texas Southern (14-20), lost in First Four to Fairleigh Dickinson, who went onto beat Purdue in the First Round in what is considered by many as the biggest upset in NCAA Tournament history
• 2018:  Texas Southern (15-19), won their First Four matchup against North Carolina Central before losing to 1-seed Xavier in the First Round
• 2016:  Holy Cross (14-19), won their First Four game against Southern before losing to 1-seed Oregon in the First Round
• 2015:  Hampton (16-17), won their First Four contest with Manhattan before losing to 1-seed to 1-seed Kentucky in the First Round
• 2014:  Cal Poly (13-19), won their First Four matchup with Texas Southern before losing to 1-seed Wichita State
• 2013:  Liberty (15-20), lost to North Carolina A&T in the First Four
• 2012:  Western Kentucky (15-18), won their First Four game against Mississippi Valley State before losing to 1-seed Kentucky in the First Round
• One of the March Madness factoids that gets thrown around every year -- but which is still true -- is that no team that lost in the quarterfinals of its conference tournament has ever won the national championship.  Of course, before 2018, no 16-seed ever beat a 1-seed, but it's happened twice now.  But if you're someone who takes these kinds of things into account, here are this year's NCAA Tournament teams that lost in their conference tournament quarterfinals (or before, as noted):
• South 3-seed Iowa State
• Midwest 3-seed Kentucky
• Midwest 4-seed Purdue
• South 4-seed Texas A&M (lost in the second round of the SEC Tournament)
• East 5-seed Oregon
• Midwest 6-seed Illinois
• South 6-seed Mississippi
• West 6-seed Missouri
• West 7-seed Kansas
• Midwest 7-seed UCLA
• East 8-seed Mississippi State (lost in the second round of the SEC Tournament)
• East 9-seed Baylor
• Midwest 9-seed Georgia (lost in the first round of the SEC Tournament)
• West 9-seed Oklahoma (lost in the second round of the SEC Tournament)
• West 10-seed Arkansas (lost in the second round of the SEC Tournament)
• East 10-seed Vanderbilt (lost in the first round of the SEC Tournament)
• South 11-seed San Diego State
• Midwest 11-seed Texas
• Midwest 11-seed Xavier
• Here are the ten teams in this year's NCAA Tournament with the most tournament appearances, but no NCAA championship.  I'm including the team's seed and region in this year's tournament, the number of NCAA Tournament appearances (not including vacated appearances), the overall rank in number of appearances, and last Final Four appearance, if applicable (* means a team has lost in a national title game, ** means the furthest the team has gone is the Final Four, and *** means the team has never been to a Final Four):
• Texas** - 11-seed Midwest:  39 appearances (9th overall); 2003
• Illinois* - 6-seed Midwest:  35 appearances (T-17th overall); 2005
• Purdue* - 4-seed Midwest:  35 appearances (T-17th overall); 2024
• Oklahoma* - 9-seed West:  34 appearances (19th overall); 2016
• BYU*** - 6-seed East:  32 appearances (T-22nd overall); No Final Four
• St. John's* - 2-seed West:  30 appearances (T-27th overall); 1985
• Xavier*** - 11-seed Midwest:  30 appearances (T-27th overall); No Final Four
• Missouri*** - 6-seed West:  29 appearances (T-30th overall); No Final Four
• Gonzaga* - 8-seed Midwest:  27 appearances (T-36th overall); 2021
• Tennessee*** - 2-seed Midwest:  27 appearances (T-36th overall); No Final Four
• Fuck Purdue

Anyway, as I do every year, here are a couple lists of five teams each in a few categories that you should consider when filling out your brackets.  Expect there to be some contradictions, since that's the nature of predicting the NCAA Tournament.  Teams are in seed order.  So you don't think I'm entirely full of shit (or perhaps to prove that I am), I'll put in parentheses what I correctly predicted last years.

Teams with the best shot at winning it all (last year, I had UConn on this list):

1.  Houston (1-seed South).  With 30 wins, Kelvin Sampson's Cougars have won 27+ games seven times in the last eight years.  They are one of the best overall defensive teams in the country, second in the nation in opponents' points per game (giving up only 58.5 points per game), fourth in field goal percentage (opponents shoot only 38.3%), and fifth in steals.  They also protect the ball well, ranking 9th in fewest turnovers per game, and they're the best three-point shooting team in the NCAA Tournament, ranking fourth nationally in three-point field goal percentage (39.8%) In their second year in the Big 12, they won the regular season title outright by four games and the Big 12 Tournament.  They've only lost once since November, all four of their losses were to NCAA Tournament teams (Auburn, Alabama, San Diego State, and Texas Tech), they haven't lose by more than five points, and three of their four losses were in overtime.
Record against NCAA Tournament teams:  11-4

2.  Auburn (1-seed South).  As the #1 overall seed, the Tigers were the best team in the best conference, winning the SEC regular season title outright.  Much has been made about the fact that they lost three of their last four games, but those losses were to top four seeds in the NCAA Tournament (at Texas A&M, at home to Alabama, and in the SEC Tournament semis to Tennessee).  They can score, they're the second-best shot-blocking team in the country, have the 7th best opponents' three-point percentage (29.2%), and they don't turn the ball over much (ranking sixth in the country with only 9.2 turnovers per game).  On top of that, they've been battle-tested, with all but nine of their games coming against fellow NCAA Tournament teams.
Record against NCAA Tournament teams:  19-5

3.  Florida (1-seed West).  The SEC Tournament champion Gators seem to be the sexy pick to win it all, so I'll say why not?  They're a pretty well-rounded team:  third in the country in scoring (averaging 85.4 points per game) and rebounding (42 board per game), Top 15 in opponents' FG percentage (39.8%), three point percentage (29.8%), and rebounding margin (+8.2), and Top 30 in the country in three pointers made per game (9.9) and blocks per game (4.7).  They have four guys averaging in double figures, and they don't rely on any one person.
Record against NCAA Tournament teams:  15-4

4.  Duke (1-seed East).  I think Duke has the easiest path to the Final Four of any of the 1-seeds, but whether they can win a 6th national title depends on the health of Cooper Flagg.  They won both the regular season title (outright) and the tournament in a top-heavy ACC, and they've only lost once since November -- and only three times all season, all to NCAA Tournament teams (Kentucky, Kansas, and Clemson) and none by more than six points.  They score, they shoot well from the field, three-point line, and free throw line, they rebound well, they distribute the ball well, they don't turn the ball over very much, and they don't get into much foul trouble.  They're #1 in the nation in scoring margin, FG percentage margin, and Top 10 in rebounding margin.  And their defense is solid too, ranking in the Top 10 in points allowed and opponents' FG percentage.
Record against NCAA Tournament teams:  9-3

5.  Tennessee (2-seed Midwest).  I think all the 2-seeds are very good, but I put the Vols slightly ahead of the other three.  They've been ranked in the Top 10 since Thanksgiving, and while they have seven losses, none of them are "bad" losses.  They shine on the defensive end, ranking 11th in points allowed (63 per game), third in opponents' FG percentage (38.2%), and first in opponents' three-point FG percentage (27.8%).  On top of that, they're in the Top 20 nationally in scoring margin, FG percentage margin, and three-point percentage margin.  Like Auburn and Florida, they have played a gauntlet in the SEC, and their path to the Elite Eight is relatively easy compared to some of the other 2-seeds.
Record against NCAA Tournament teams:  16-7

Final Four sleepers (teams seeded 4 or higher) (last year, I had Alabama on this list, but did not have NC State on this list):

1.  Texas A&M (4-seed South).  The Aggies have never been to a Final Four, and I'd be lying if I didn't say that have a tough road to get to their first.  However, they are one of the best defensive teams in the country (25th in opponents' FG percentage), tops in the nation in offensive rebounding, third in rebounding margin, and fourth overall in rebounds per game, which is never a bad thing.  They get to the free throw line 25 times a game.  In addition to a tough SEC schedule (where they did beat Auburn, among others), the Aggies beat fellow NCAA Tournament teams Texas Tech, Purdue, and Creighton in the non-conference slate on neutral courts.
Record against NCAA Tournament teams:  11-9

2.  Maryland (4-seed West).  The Terps have been kind of a sleeper all year.  Even as a Big Ten basketball fan, I feel like I haven't heard much about them, but they found their stride down the stretch, going 12-3 in their last 15 games.  They shoot the ball well from deep and have a Top 10 adjusted defensive efficiency.  Projected lottery pick and freshman Derek Queen is nearly averaging a double-double, and he could improve his NBA draft stock even more with a strong tournament.
Record against NCAA Tournament teams:  7-5

3.  Michigan (5-seed South).  First-year head coach Dusty May has proven he can win in March, guiding FAU to their Cinderella Final Four run (and within two points of going to the national title game) two years ago as a 9-seed.  The Wolverines won the Big Ten Tournament last weekend, and are probably underseeded as a 5-seed (it sounds like the Selection Committee already had its seeds finalized before the Big Ten Tournament title game was over).  With two athletic 7-footers -- FAU transfer Vlad Goldin and Yale transfer Danny Wolf -- they present a matchup nightmare for most teams.  After losing three of five heading into the Big Ten Tournament, the Wolverines turned it on, beating three ranked, Top 4 seed teams (Purdue, Maryland, and Wisconsin) to win the conference tournament.
Record against NCAA Tournament teams:  8-7

4.  Mississippi (6-seed South).  While the Rebels have also never made a Final Four, their coach, Chris Beard, took Texas Tech to the national title game in 2019.  They have a small lineup, but they do rank in the Top 30 nationally on both sides of the ball, and they are one of the best teams in the country at protecting the ball.  All eleven of their losses came against NCAA Tournament teams, and they've beaten the likes of Tennessee, Alabama, BYU, and Louisville.  I realize it's going to be a sexy pick to take UNC or San Diego State over the Rebels in the First Round, but if they can win that game, a hamstrung Iowa State team (or Lipscomb) awaits in the Second Round, and they have a puncher's chance against anyone else in the South Region.
Record against NCAA Tournament teams:  11-11

5.  BYU (6-seed East).  First-year head coach Kevin Young has made a smooth transition from being an NBA assistant to a college head coach.  The Cougars have been one of the best teams in the nation over the last month, losing only to 1-seed Houston in the Big 12 Tournament semis since February 11, and beating 3-seed Iowa State (twice), 4-seed Arizona, and 7-seed Kansas during that stretch.  They're Top 30 in the country in scoring, FG percentage, three-point percentage, and rebounding margin, and Top 10 in three pointers made per game and assists per game.
Record against NCAA Tournament teams:  5-5

Teams seeded 4 or better who may not make it to the second weekend (last year, I had Auburn on this list, but did not have Baylor, Kansas, or Kentucky on this list):

1.  Duke (1-seed East).  Duke is really good, but this was a really down year for the ACC, so it's hard to gauge just how much of Duke's record is because of how good they are or because of how bad the ACC was.  When they beat Louisville in the ACC Tournament title game, it was the first time they played a ranked opponent since December 4.  If Cooper Flagg's injury prevents him from playing in the Second Round, either Mississippi State or Baylor could pull off the upset and send the Blue Devils packing early.
Record against NCAA Tournament teams:  9-3

2.  Iowa State (3-seed South).  The Cyclones are always one of those teams that looks good during the regular season, but can't quite make it happen in the Big Dance.  Since 2000, they have been to 12 NCAA Tournaments.  During that time, they've lost to double-digit seeds in the first round as many times as they have been to the Sweet 16 (four).  Assuming they beat 14-seed Lipscomb in the First Round, they will face a tough matchup in the Second Round against 6-seed Ole Miss or one of the play-in teams -- San Diego State, who is always tough, or North Carolina, which has to have a chip on its shoulder based on how much everyone has nearly universally questioned whether they deserve to be in the tournament.  Plus, the Cyclones' second-leading scorer and assist leader, Keshon Gilbert, has been ruled out for the tournament, which is a significant blow.
Record against NCAA Tournament teams:  6-6

3.  Wisconsin (3-seed East).  The Badgers are good, but not great, and they're probably overseeeded at a 3-seed.  Since Greg Gard guided Wisconsin to the national title game in 2015 in his first year at the helm in Madison, The Badgers went to the Sweet 16 in both of the following two seasons, but haven't made it to the second weekend since 2017.  That includes two First Round losses as a 5-seed (in 2019 to Oregon and last year to James Madison), as well as Second Round loss in 2022 as a 3-seed to 11-seed Iowa State.  First Round opponent Montana is second in the nation in FG percentage, and if the Badgers can get past the Grizzlies, they'll face one of the hottest teams in the country in the high-scoring BYU Cougars or one of the best defensive teams in the country in VCU (which has only lost twice in 2025).
Record against NCAA Tournament teams:  5-8

4.  Kentucky (3-seed Midwest).  Fuck Kentucky.  I think the Wildcats are overseeded at a 3-seed.  Sure, they played a really tough schedule, but they were inconsistent this year, and I think they got a bump up in their seed simply because of how good the SEC was this year.  However, after going to seven Elite Eights, four Final Fours, and two national title games  (winning one championship) between 2010 and 2019, they haven't made it to the second weekend of the tournament since 2019, including losses in the First Round last year as a 3-seed to 14-seed Oakland and in 2022 as a 2-seed to 15-seed St. Peter's.  I think they'll likely get past Troy in the First Round, but 6-seed Illinois is an Elite Eight team from last year, and those First Four teams (Texas and Xavier) will be have the "prove we belong" mentality, which could spell trouble for UK.
Record against NCAA Tournament teams:  13-10

5.  Purdue (4-seed Midwest).  The Boilermakers have a long and storied history . . . of underachieving in March.  Purdue has been a top-4 seed in the NCAA Tournament 17 times since seeding began in 1979, failing to advance to the Sweet 16 eight of those times.  Sure, they made it to the national title game last year, but the year before that, they became the second 1-seed in NCAA Tournament history to lose to a 16-seed in the first round.  The year before, they made it the Sweet 16, only to be ousted by 15-seed St. Peter's.  The year before that, they lost to 13-seed North Texas in the first round.  This year, there's no Zach Edey, and Purdue is probably overseeded on the 4 line.  They stumbled down the stretch, losing six of their last nine games.  High Point can't be overlooked in the First Round, and if the Boilers make it past them, either Clemson or McNeese will be a tough matchup.
Record against NCAA Tournament teams:  7-8

Teams seeded 12 or higher with the best chance of pulling an upset in the first round (last year, I had James Madison on this list, but did not have Grand Canyon, Oakland, or Yale on this list):

1.  Colorado State (12-seed West).  It says something about the Selection Committee's inability to seed correctly that 12-seed Colorado State is a favorite against 5-seed Memphis.  The Rams have played really well over the last month, winning their last ten on their way to the Mountain West Tournament title.  They shoot the ball very well from both inside and outside the arc.  Memphis is overseeded as a 5-seed.  The AAC was a one-bid league this year, and the Tigers' NET ranking is actually lower than the Rams' NET.  Plus, Memphis may be without starting guard Tyrese Hunter due to an injury.
Record against NCAA Tournament teams:  3-6

2.  McNeese (12-seed Midwest).  Last year, the Cowboys were in a similar position -- a 12-seed playing against 5-seed Gonzaga.  They were 30-3 entering last year's tournament, and were one of the consistent picks for a 12-5 upset.  But it was their first NCAA Tournament appearance in 22 years, and Gonzaga ran them out of the gym.  Will Wade's crew is back again as a 12-seed, playing Clemson this time around.  They cruised through the Southland again and have lost only once since December.  They shoot well from three and force turnovers well, both good stats for an upset.
Record against NCAA Tournament teams:  0-3

3.  UC San Diego (12-seed South).  The Tritons stormed into the NCAA Tournament in their first year of eligibility, and they hold a 15-game winning streak.  They shoot well (37% from three-point land), they hold their opponents to 61.6 points per game (6th in the nation) and only 39.8% from the field (11th nationally), their second in the nation in scoring margin (+18.1 points per game), they force turnovers (first in the nation in turnover margin and 4th in the nation in steals per game), and they don't turn the ball over themselves (tied for first in the nation in turnovers per game, with only 8.7), ranking in the Top 10 nationally in both offensive and defensive turnover percentage.  If they can find a way to neutralize (or at least limit) Michigan's two 7-footers, they could win their first-ever NCAA Tournament game.
Record against NCAA Tournament teams:  1-1

4.  Akron (13-seed East).  Akron has never won an NCAA Tournament game, but this could be the year.  The Zips are 21-1 since December 30, shooting 60% from inside the arc and 38% from outside the arc during that time.  Overall, they're 8th in the country in points per game (84.6), 6th in three-pointers made per game (10.9), 4th in assists per game, and Top 25 in rebounds per game.  Their First Round opponent, Arizona, is good, but not great, and was 5-6 over their last eleven games after starting 17-6.  The Wildcats are not a great defensive team, and their weakness -- opponents' three-point percentage (tied for 183rd nationally out of 364 teams) and made three-pointers per game (tied for 310th nationally) -- plays into Akron's strength.
Record against NCAA Tournament teams:  2-2

5.  High Point (13-seed Midwest).  The Panthers are another first-time NCAA Tournament team, but don't let that fool you.  They went 29-5, won both the Big South regular season title (outright by three games) and tournament, and they also shoot the ball well from inside and outside the three-point line.  Purdue is streaky and, as discussed above, has a history of underperforming against double-digit seeds.  If the Boilers are off and the Panthers are on, it could be another early exit for Matt Painter's team.
Record against NCAA Tournament teams:  1-1