Friday, March 14, 2025

Updated Championship Week Predictions: "Disco Duck"

Today's Championship Week song is Rick Dees' novelty hit "Disco Duck," in honor of my Hoosiers laying an egg against the Oregon Ducks.  I hate everything about that last sentence, but the video -- which is a performance from Top of the Pops, mind you -- is ridiculous.

Other than that it was a pretty damn exciting day of action yesterday, with three double OT games, 24 games decided by five points or less, and several buzzer beaters.

Today, from the start of the VCU/St. Bonaventure game in the A-10 quarterfinals at 11:30 a.m. ET to the end of the Colorado State/Utah State game in the Mountain West semis that tips off at 11:59 p.m. ET, we have 38 games across 15 conference tournaments, spanning 14 hours.  Giggity!

Here's what happened yesterday and what we have to look forward to today:
  • In the ACC quarterfinals, 1-seed Duke beat 8-seed Georgia Tech, 78-70, but lost stars Cooper Flagg and Maliq Brown to injuries, 2-seed Louisville came back from 15 down in the second half to beat 7-seed Stanford, 75-73, on a Chucky Hepburn buzzer beater, 3-seed Clemson won a close one against 6-seed SMU, 57-54, and 5-seed North Carolina topped 4-seed Wake Forest, 68-59, likely getting the Tar Heels into the NCAA Tournament and bursting the Demon Deacons' bubble, to advance to tonight's semifinals.
  • In the Big 12 quarters, top seed Houston ended 16-seed Colorado's Cinderella run with a 77-68 win, 2-seed Texas Tech held off 7-seed Baylor, 76-74, 3-seed Arizona defeated 6-seed Kansas, 88-77, and 4-seed BYU topped 5-seed Iowa State, 96-92, to advance to tonight's semis.
  • In the Big East quarterfinals, 1-seed St. John's made easy work of 9-seed Butler, 78-57, 2-seed Creighton, in a double OT thriller, came back from a 17-point second-half deficit to beat 10-seed DePaul, 85-81, 3-seed UConn pulled away to beat 6-seed Villanova, 73-56, and 5-seed Marquette overcame a 14-point second-half deficit to beat 4-seed Xavier, 89-87, to advance to today's semis.
  • In the Big West quarters, 7-seed Cal Poly upset 3-seed UC Riverside, 96-83, and 5-seed UC Santa Barbara upended 4-seed Cal State Northridge, 78-72, to advance to tonight's semifinals.
  • In the second half of the C-USA quarterfinals, 3-seed Middle Tennessee State took two overtimes to beat 6-seed Louisiana Tech, 77-75, and 4-seed Kennesaw State survived 5-seed New Mexico State, 80-77, to advance to today's semifinals.
  • In the second half of the MAAC quarterfinals, 6-seed Mount St. Mary's upset 3-seed Marist, 62-58, and 4-seed Iona bounced 5-seed Manhattan, 77-65, to advance to this evening's semifinals.
  • In the quarterfinals of the miggity-miggity-miggity-miggity-miggity-miggity-MAC, 1-seed Akron throttled 8-seed Bowling Green, 96-67, 2-seed Miami (OH) staved off 7-seed Eastern Michigan, 81-75, 3-seed Kent State beat 6-seed Western Michigan, 73-66, and 4-seed Toledo got by 5-seed Ohio, 90-85 in OT, to advance to this evening's semis.
  • In the second half of the MEAC quarterfinals, 6-seed North Carolina Central upset 3-seed Delaware State, 79-77, on a buzzer-beating layup, and 5-seed Morgan State got a layup with ten seconds left to beat 4-seed Howard, 91-90, to advance to tonight's semis.
  • In the Mountain West quarters, 1-seed New Mexico downed 8-seed San Jose State, 63-52, 2-seed Colorado State dumped 7-seed Nevada, 67-59, 3-seed Utah State rolled 6-seed UNLV, 70-58, and 5-seed Boise State kept its NCAA Tournament hopes alive with a 62-52 win over 4-seed San Diego State, to advance to tonight's semifinals.
  • In the second half of the SWAC quarterfinals, 3-seed Bethune-Cookman disposed of 6-seed Alcorn State, 69-60, and 5-seed Alabama State bounced 4-seed Texas Southern, to advance to today's semifinals.
  • In the second half of the WAC quarterfinals, 3-seed Cal Baptist eliminated 6-seed Tarleton, 55-51, and 5-seed Seattle beat 4-seed Abilene Christian, 69-63, to advance to tonight's semis.
  • In the Second Round of the AAC, 5-seed FAU held off 13-seed Charlotte, 64-59, 6-seed East Carolina beat 11-seed UTSA, 70-65, 10-seed Tulsa overcame 7-seed Temple, 75-71, and 8-seed Wichita State downed 9-seed South Florida, 73-68, to advance to today's quarterfinals.
  • In the Second Round of the A-10, everything went chalk, as 5-seed St. Louis beat 12-seed Davidson, 83-75, 6-seed St. Joseph's held off 14-seed LaSalle, 75-70, 7-seed George Washington rammed 15-seed Fordham, 88-81, and 8-seed St. Bonaventure dropped 9-seed Duquesne, 64-59, to advance to today's quarterfinals.
  • In the Second Round of the Big Ten, 5-seed Wisconsin ousted 13-seed Northwestern, 70-63, 6-seed Purdue, in a back-and-forth affair, finally finished off 14-seed USC, 76-71, 7-seed Illinois stamped out 15-seed Iowa, 106-94, and 8-seed Oregon likely burst by beloved 9-seed Hoosiers' bubble with a 72-59 defeat, to advance to today's quarterfinals.
  • In the Second Round of the SEC, 13-seed Texas boosted its NCAA Tournament hopes with an exciting 94-89 double OT win over rival 5-seed Texas A&M, 6-seed Kentucky got a jumper with less than a second left to beat 14-seed Oklahoma, 85-84, 7-seed Missouri beat 10-seed Mississippi State, 85-73, and 8-seed Mississippi State eked by 9-seed Arkansas, 83-80, to advanced to today's quarterfinals.
  • Conference tournaments starting today:  0
  • Conference tournaments with games today: 15
  • Conference tournaments with title games today:  0
  • Conference tournaments with semifinals today:  11 (ACC, Big 12, Big East, Big West, C-USA, MAAC, MAC, MEAC, Mountain West, SWAC, WAC)
  • Conference tournaments with quarterfinals today:  4 (AAC, A-10, Big Ten, SEC)
  • Here are the teams still playing in the conference tournaments that have never been to the NCAA Tournament (not including teams who are ineligible for this year's NCAA Tournament or who didn't qualify for their conference tournament):
    • America East:  3-seed Maine
    • Big West:  1-seed UC San Diego
    • MAAC:  1-seed Quinnipiac, 2-seed Merrimack
    • SWAC:  3-seed Bethune-Cookman
    • WAC:  1-seed Utah Valley, 3-seed Cal Baptist
  • Bubble teams that won yesterday:  Boise State, Colorado State, Creighton, Missouri, New Mexico, North Carolina, Texas, Utah State
  • Bubble teams that lost yesterday:  Arkansas, Baylor, Indiana, Mississippi State, Oklahoma, San Diego State, SMU, Wake Forest, Villanova, Xavier
  • Bubble teams that did not play yesterday (that have not been eliminated from their conference tournaments yet):  Dayton, Liberty, Memphis, North Texas, UC San Diego, UC Irvine, VCU
With that, here are the tournaments starting today, the tournaments with games today, bids up for grab today, who has already clinched an automatic berth, and my predictions for the remaining conference tournaments.

Tournaments starting today
-None

Tournaments with games today
-AAC
-ACC
-Atlantic 10
-Big 12
-Big East
-Big Ten
-Big West
-Conference USA
-MAAC
-MAC
-MEAC
-Mountain West
-SEC
-SWAC
-WAC

Bids up for grabs today (all times Eastern)
-None

Already clinched automatic berths (I will add in parentheses the NCAA tournament appearances for each school, including the bid just clinched and last NCAA Tournament appearance where applicable, and for conferences whose tournaments have not yet ended, I'll list the date of the championship game)
-AAC (March 16)
-ACC (March 15)
-America East (March 15)
-Atlantic 10 (March 16)
-Atlantic Sun:  Lipscomb (2; 2018)
-Big 12 (March 15)
-Big East (March 15)
-Big Sky:  Montana (13; 2019)
-Big South:  High Point (1)
-Big Ten (March 16)
-Big West (March 15)
-Coastal:  UNC Wilmington (7; 2017)
-Conference USA (March 15)
-Horizon:  Robert Morris (9; 2015)
-Ivy League (March 16)
-MAAC (March 15)
-MAC (March 15)
-MEAC (March 15)
-Missouri Valley:  Drake (8; 2024)
-Mountain West (March 15)
-Northeast Conference:  St. Francis (PA) (2; 1991)
-Ohio Valley:  SIU Edwardsville (1)
-Patriot League:  American (4; 2014)
-SEC (March 16)
-Southern Conference: Wofford (6; 2019)
-Southland:  McNeese (4; 2024)
-Summit:  Omaha (1)
-Sun Belt:  Troy (3; 2017)
-SWAC (March 15)
-WAC (March 15)
-West Coast:  Gonzaga (27; 2024)

Remaining Tournaments (all times are Eastern)

AAC (March 12-16; Fort Worth)
3/14 – Quarterfinals
1 p.m. (ESPN2) (1) Memphis vs. (8) Wichita State.  Predicted winner:  Memphis
3 p.m. (ESPN2) (4) Tulane vs. (5) FAU.  Predicted winner:  Tulane
7 p.m. (ESPNU) (2) North Texas vs. (10) Tulsa.  Predicted winner:  North Texas
9 p.m. (ESPNU) (3) UAB vs. (6) East Carolina.  Predicted winner:  UAB
3/15 – Semifinals
3 p.m. (ESPN2) (1) Memphis vs. (4) Tulane.  Predicted winner:  Memphis
5 p.m. (ESPN2) (2) North Texas vs. (3) UAB.  Predicted winner:  North Texas
3/16 – Finals
3:15 p.m. (ESPN) (1) Memphis vs. (2) North Texas.  Predicted winner:  Memphis

ACC (March 11-15; Charlotte)
3/14 – Semifinals
7 p.m. (ESPN/ESPN2) (1) Duke vs. (5) North Carolina.  Predicted winner:  Duke
9:30 p.m. (ESPN/ESPN2) (2) Louisville vs. (3) Clemson.  Predicted winner:  Clemson
3/15 – Finals
8:30 p.m. (ESPN) (1) Duke vs. (3) Clemson.  Predicted winner:  Duke

America East (March 8, 11, 15; campus of higher seed)
3/15 – Finals
11 a.m. (ESPN2) (3) Maine at (1) Bryant.  Predicted winner:  Maine

Atlantic 10 (March 12-16; Washington, DC)
3/14 – Quarterfinals
11:30 a.m. (USA) (1) VCU vs. (8) St. Bonaventure.  Predicted winner:  VCU
2 p.m. (USA) (4) Loyola (IL) vs. (5) St. Louis.  Predicted winner:  Loyola (IL)
5 p.m. (USA) (2) George Mason vs. (7) George Washington.  Predicted winner:  George Mason
7:30 p.m. (Peacock) (3) Dayton vs. (6) St. Joseph's.  Predicted winner:  Dayton
3/15 – Semifinals
1 p.m. (CBSSN) (1) VCU vs. (4) Loyola (IL).  Predicted winner:  VCU
3:30 p.m. (CBSSN) (2) George Mason vs. (3) Dayton.  Predicted winner:  Dayton
3/16 – Finals
1 p.m. (CBS) (1) VCU vs. (3) Dayton.  Predicted winner:  VCU

Big 12 (March 11-15; Kansas City)
3/14 – Semifinals
7 p.m. (ESPN/ESPN2) (1) Houston vs. (4) BYU.  Predicted winner:  Houston
9:30 p.m. (ESPN/ESPN2) (2) Texas Tech vs. (3) Arizona.  Predicted winner:  Texas Tech
3/15 – Finals
6 p.m. (ESPN) (1) Houston vs. (2) Texas Tech.  Predicted winner:  Houston

Big East (March 12-15; New York)
3/14 – Semifinals
6:30 p.m. (Fox) (1) St. John's vs. (5) Marquette.  Predicted winner:  St. John's
9 p.m. (Fox) (2) Creighton vs. (3) UConn.  Predicted winner:  UConn
3/15 – Finals
6:30 p.m. (Fox) (1) St. John's vs. (3) UConn.  Predicted winner:  St. John's

Big Ten (March 12-16; Indianapolis)
3/14 – Quarterfinals
12 p.m. (BTN) (1) Michigan State vs. (8) Oregon.  Predicted winner:  Michigan State
2:30 p.m. (BTN) (4) UCLA vs. (5) Wisconsin.  Predicted winner:  Wisconsin
6:30 p.m. (BTN) (2) Maryland vs. (7) Illinois.  Predicted winner:  Maryland
9 p.m. (BTN) (3) Michigan vs. (6) Purdue.  Predicted winner:  Michigan
3/15 – Semifinals
1 p.m. (CBS) (1) Michigan State vs. (5) Wisconsin.  Predicted winner:  Michigan State
3:30 p.m. (CBS) (2) Maryland vs. (3) Michigan.  Predicted winner:  Michigan
3/16 – Finals
3:30 p.m. (CBS) (1) Michigan State vs. (3) Michigan.  Predicted winner:  Michigan State

Big West (March 12-15; Henderson, NV)
3/14 – Semifinals
9 p.m. (ESPN+) (1) UC San Diego vs. (5) UC Santa Barbara.  Predicted winner:  UC San Diego
11:30 p.m. (ESPN2) (2) UC Irvine vs. (7) Cal Poly.  Predicted winner:  UC Irvine
3/15 – Finals
9:40 p.m. (ESPN2) (1) UC San Diego vs. (2) UC Irvine.  Predicted winner:  UC Irvine

Conference USA (March 11-15; Huntsville, AL)
3/14 – Semifinals
12:30 p.m. (CBSSN)  (1) Liberty vs. (4) Kennesaw State.  Predicted winner:  Liberty
3 p.m. (CBSSN) (2) Jacksonville State vs. (3) Middle Tennessee State.  Predicted winner:  Middle Tennessee State
3/15 – Finals
8:30 p.m. (CBSSN) (1) Liberty vs. (3) Middle Tennessee State.  Predicted winner:  Liberty

Ivy League (March 15-16; Providence)
3/15 - Semifinals
11 a.m. (ESPNU) (1) Yale vs. (4) Princeton.  Predicted winner:  Yale
2 p.m. (ESPNews) (2) Cornell vs. (3) Dartmouth.  Predicted winner:  Cornell  
3/16 - Finals
12 p.m. (ESPN2) (1) Yale vs. (2) Cornell.  Predicted winner:  Yale

MAAC (March 11-15; Atlantic City, NJ)
3/14 – Semifinals
6 p.m. (ESPNews) (1) Quinnipiac vs. (4) Iona.  Predicted winner:  Quinnipiac
8:30 p.m. (ESPNews) (2) Merrimack vs. (6) Mt. St. Mary's.  Predicted winner:  Merrimack
3/15 – Finals
7:30 p.m. (ESPNU) (1) Quinnipiac vs. (2) Merrimack.  Predicted winner:  Quinnipiac

MAC (March 13-15; Cleveland)
3/14 – Semifinals
5 p.m. (CBSSN) (1) Akron vs. (4) Toledo.  Predicted winner:  Akron
7:30 p.m. (CBSSN) (2) Miami (OH) vs. (3) Kent State.  Predicted winner:  Kent State
3/15 – Finals
7:30 p.m. (ESPN2) (1) Akron vs. (3) Kent State.  Predicted winner:  Akron

MEAC (March 12-15; Norfolk, VA)
3/14 – Semifinals
6 p.m. (ESPN+) (1) Norfolk State vs. (5) Morgan State.  Predicted winner:  Norfolk State
8 p.m. (ESPN+) (2) South Carolina State vs. (6) North Carolina Central.  Predicted winner:  South Carolina State
3/15 – Final
1:00 p.m. (ESPN2) (1) Norfolk State vs. (2) South Carolina State.  Predicted winner:  Norfolk State

Mountain West (March 12-15; Paradise, NV)
3/14 – Semifinals
9:30 p.m. (CBSSN) (1) New Mexico vs. (5) Boise State.  Predicted winner:  New Mexico
11:59 p.m. (CBSSN) (2) Colorado State vs. (3) Utah State.  Predicted winner:  Utah State
3/15 – Finals
6 p.m. (CBS) (1) New Mexico vs. (3) Utah State.  Predicted winner:  New Mexico

SEC (March 12-16; Nashville)
3/14 – Quarterfinals
1 p.m. (ESPN) (1) Auburn vs. (8) Mississippi.  Predicted winner:  Auburn
3:30 p.m. (ESPN) (4) Tennessee vs. (13) Texas.  Predicted winner:  Tennessee
7 p.m. (SEC Network) (2) Florida vs. (7) Missouri.  Predicted winner:  Missouri
9:30 p.m. (SEC Network) (3) Alabama vs. (6) Kentucky.  Predicted winner:  Alabama
3/15 – Semifinals
1 p.m. (ESPN) (1) Auburn vs. (4) Tennessee.  Predicted winner:  Auburn
3:30 p.m. (ESPN) (3) Alabama vs. (7) Missouri.  Predicted winner:  Alabama
3/16 – Finals
1 p.m. (ESPN) (1) Auburn vs. (3) Alabama.  Predicted winner:  Auburn

SWAC (March 11-15; College Park, GA)
3/14 – Semifinals
2 p.m. (ESPN+) (5) Alabama State vs. (8) Grambling.  Predicted winner:  Alabama State
8:30 p.m. (ESPN+) (2) Jackson State vs. (3) Bethune-Cookman.  Predicted winner:  Bethune-Cookman
3/15 – Finals
9:30 p.m. (ESPNU) (3) Bethune-Cookman vs. (5) Alabama State.  Predicted winner:  Bethune-Cookman

WAC (March 11-15; first round at St. George, UT; remaining rounds at Paradise, NV)
3/14 – Semifinals
9 p.m. (ESPN+) (1) Utah Valley vs. (5) Seattle.  Predicted winner:  Utah Valley
11:30 p.m. (ESPN2/ESPNU) (2) Grand Canyon vs. (3) Cal Baptist.  Predicted winner:  Grand Canyon
3/15 – Finals
11:40 p.m. (ESPN2) (1) Utah Valley vs. (2) Grand Canyon.  Predicted winner:  Grand Canyon

No comments: