Monday, March 01, 2010

Big Ten Tournament Seeding Predictions, The Third

It was another interesting week in the Big Ten. Purdue lost its star forward Robbie Hummel for the season last week. As someone with vivid, haunting memories of 1993, when IU was ranked #1 and star forward Alan Henderson's season was cut short by a late-season knee injury, thus resulting in the Hoosiers getting knocked out in the Elite Eight, I can sincerely say I hope Purdue suffers a worse fate. Then again, an Elite Eight would tie for Purdue's best season since 1980. Ouch.

In an even bigger development, IU has found itself in a battle for last place after Penn State's recent resurgence and IU's abysmal play. Luckily IU holds the tiebreaker over Penn State if it were to come down to that. Also, Northwestern has continued to seal its NIT fate by losing games to teams that NCAA tournament teams should beat. Maybe next year, Cats.

Current standings and remaining games:
1. Ohio State (13-4): ILL (W)
2 (tie). Michigan State (11-4): PSU (W), MICH (W)
2 (tie). Purdue (12-4): IU (W), at PSU (W)
4. Wisconsin (11-5): IOWA (W), at ILL (L)
5. Illinois (10-6): at OSU (L), WIS (W)
6. Minnesota (8-8): at MICH (W), IOWA (W)
7. Northwestern (7-10): at IU (L)
8. Michigan (6-10): MINN (L), at MSU (L)
9. Iowa (4-12): at WIS (L), at MINN (L)
10. Indiana (3-13): at PUR (L), NW (W)
11. Penn State (3-13): at MSU (L), PUR (L)

Predicted final standings and seedings for the Big Ten Tournament (ties are broken per Big Ten tiebreaking procedures):

1. Ohio State (14-4) (2-1 vs. MSU and Purdue
2. Purdue (14-4) (2-2 vs. MSU and OSU)
3. Michigan State (14-4) (1-2 vs. Purdue and OSU)
4. Wisconsin (12-6)
5. Illinois (11-7)
6. Minnesota (10-8)
7. Northwestern (7-11)
8. Michigan (6-12)
9. Iowa (4-14) (they would get the 9 seed based on a 2-0 record vs. IU)
10. Indiana (4-14)
11. Penn State (3-15)

First round:
Michigan over Iowa
IU over Northwestern
Minnesota over Penn State

Quarterfinals:
OSU over Michigan
Wisconsin over Illinois
IU over Purdue
MSU over Minnesota

Semis:
OSU over Wisconsin
IU over MSU

Finals:
IU over OSU

Don't say I didn't tell you.

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