Updated Big Ten Tournament Seeding Predictions and NCAA Tournament Resumes

Last night, Purdue blew a 16-point halftime lead at home against Michigan State, but forced overtime, winning by one.  This is significant for seeding purposes because the Spartans –- who are now four games back in the loss column from first-place Iowa and three games back in the loss column from Indiana and Maryland -- may not lose another regular season game.  Elsewhere, Ohio State held on to its slim NCAA Tournament hopes by coming from behind to beat Northwestern at home.

Next games

The next slate of games is tonight.  Here they are (all times Eastern):

-Nebraska at Wisconsin (7 p.m.; BTN)

-Michigan at Minnesota (9 p.m.; BTN)

Current Standings

Here are the current standings, with the conference record, each team's remaining Big Ten games, and my predictions.  I will try to update these after every day or every couple days of games.

1.  Iowa (10-1):  at Indiana (L); Minnesota (W); at Penn State (W); Wisconsin (W); at Ohio State (W); Indiana (W); at Michigan (L)

2.  Maryland (10-2):  Wisconsin (W); at Minnesota (W); Michigan (W); at Purdue (L); Illinois (W); at Indiana (L)

3.  Indiana (9-2):  Iowa (W); at Michigan State (L); Nebraska (W); Purdue (W); at Illinois (W); at Iowa (L); Maryland (W)

4 (tie).  Purdue (8-4):   at Michigan (L); Northwestern (W); at Indiana (L); Maryland (W); at Nebraska (W); Wisconsin (W)

5.  Michigan (7-4):  at Minnesota (W); Purdue (W); at Ohio State (L); at Maryland (L); Northwestern (W); at Wisconsin (L); Iowa (W)

6.  Michigan State (7-5):  Indiana (W); Wisconsin (W); at Ohio State (W); Penn State (W); at Rutgers (W); Ohio State (W)

7.  Wisconsin (6-4):  Nebraska (W); at Maryland (L); at Michigan State (L); Illinois (W); at Iowa (L); Michigan (W); at Minnesota (W); at Purdue (L)

8.  Ohio State (7-5):  at Rutgers (W); Michigan (W); at Nebraska (W); Michigan State (L); Iowa (L); at Michigan State (L)

9.  Nebraska (5-6):  at Wisconsin (L); Penn State (W); at Indiana (L); Ohio State (L); at Penn State (W); Purdue (L); at Northwestern (L)

10.  Northwestern (4-8):  Illinois (W); at Purdue (L); at Michigan (L); Rutgers (W); at Penn State (L); Nebraska (W)

11 (tie).  Illinois (3-8):  at Northwestern (L); Rutgers (W); at Wisconsin (L); Indiana (L); Minnesota (W); at Maryland (L); at Penn State (L)

11 (tie).  Penn State (3-8):  at Nebraska (L); Iowa (L); at Rutgers (L); Nebraska (L); at Michigan State (L); Northwestern (W); Illinois (W)

13 (tie).  Rutgers (0-11):  Ohio State (L); at Illinois (L); Penn State (W); at Minnesota (L); at Northwestern (L); Michigan State (L); Minnesota (W)

13 (tie).  Minnesota (0-11):  Michigan (L); at Iowa (L); Maryland (L); Rutgers (W); at Illinois (L); Wisconsin (L); at Rutgers (L)

Projected Big Ten Tournament Seeding

Given my predictions and Big Ten tiebreaking rules, here is how the Big Ten Tournament seeds should fall into place:

1.  Iowa (15-3)

2.  Indiana (14-4) (would have tiebreaker over Maryland based on 1-0 record vs. Maryland)

3.  Maryland (14-4)

4.  Michigan State (13-5)

5.  Purdue (12-6)

6.  Michigan (11-7)

7.  Wisconsin (10-8) (would have tiebreaker over OSU based on 1-0 record vs. OSU)

8.  Ohio State (10-8)

9.  Northwestern (7-11) (would have tiebreaker over Nebraska based on 2-0 record vs. Nebraska)

10.  Nebraska (7-11)

11.  Illinois (5-13)

12.  Penn State (4-14)

13.  Rutgers (2-16)

14.  Minnesota (1-17)

Big Ten Tournament Schedule

Here are the dates/times/TV schedule for the Big Ten Tournament (and a link to the bracket), which will be in Indianapolis.  All times are Eastern.

Wednesday March 9 – First Round

(12) vs. (13) (4:30 p.m. ESPN2)

(11) vs. (14) (7 p.m. BTN)

Thursday March 10 – Second Round

(8) vs. (9) (Noon, BTN)

(5) vs. (12)/(13) (2:30 p.m., BTN)

(7) vs. (10) (6:30 p.m., ESPN2)

(6) vs. (11)/(14) (9 p.m., ESPN2)

Friday March 11 – Quarterfinals

(1) vs. (8)/(9) (Noon, ESPN)

(4) vs. (5)/(12)/(13) (2:30 p.m., ESPN)

(2) vs. (7)/(10) (6:30 p.m., BTN)

(3) vs. (6)/(11)/(14) (9 p.m., BTN)

Saturday March 12 – Semifinals

(1)/(8)/(9) vs. (4)/(5)/(12)/(13) (1 p.m., CBS)

(2)/(7)/(10) vs. (3)/(6)/(11)/(14) (3:30 p.m., CBS)

Sunday March 13 – Finals

(1)/(4)/(5)/(8)/(9)/(12)/(13) vs. (2)/(3)/(6)/(7)/(10)/(11)/(14) (3 p.m., CBS)

NCAA Tournament Resumes for All 14 Big Ten Teams

Here is each Big Ten team's NCAA Tournament resume, including each team's RPI (based on ESPN's daily RPI), overall record against D-1 opponents, "good" wins (wins against RPI Top 50 teams or, if none, the team's best win), "bad" losses (losses against teams with an RPI of 101+ or, if none, the team's worst loss).  An * means the game was played on a neutral court, and for the "good" wins and "bad" losses, the team's current RPI is identified.  I have categorized the teams by "In," "Bubble," or "Out," which is my best guess, based on what I know right now, as to whether each team is a lock for the NCAA Tournament, is on the bubble, or is out.

In

1.  Maryland

RPI:  5

Overall record:  21-3

Good wins:  3 (Iowa (7), Purdue (21), Connecticut* (48))

Bad losses: None (at Michigan (56))

2.  Iowa

RPI:  7

Overall record:  19-4

Good wins:  6 (Michigan State (17), at Michigan State (17), Purdue (21), at Purdue (21), Florida State (39), Wichita State* (43))

Bad losses:  None (Notre Dame* (24)

3.  Michigan State

RPI:  17

Overall record:  20-5

Good wins:  5 (Kansas* (4), Maryland (5), Florida (23), Louisville (25), Providence* (32))

Bad losses:  1 (Nebraska (156))

4.  Purdue

RPI:  21

Overall record:  20-5

Good wins:  3 (Michigan State (17), Florida* (23), at Pittsburgh (40))

Bad losses:  1 (at Illinois (115))

Bubble

5.  Indiana

RPI:  53

Overall record:  19-5

Good wins:  1 (Notre Dame* (24))

Bad losses:  2 (at Penn State (108), UNLV* (132))

6.  Michigan

RPI:  56

Overall record:  16-7

Good wins:  2 (Maryland (5), Texas* (20))

Bad losses:  None (Indiana (53))

7.  Wisconsin

RPI:  62

Overall record:  14-9

Good wins:  3 (Michigan State (17), VCU* (41), at Syracuse (46))

Bad losses:  4 (Marquette (106), at Northwestern (111), Milwaukee (169), Western Illinois (272))

Out

8.  Ohio State

RPI:  79

Overall record:  15-10

Good wins:  1 (Kentucky* (15))

Bad losses:  2 (Memphis* (114), Louisiana Tech (145))

9.  Penn State

RPI:  108

Overall record:  12-12

Good wins:  None (Indiana (53))

Bad losses:  1 (Radford (173))

10.  Northwestern

RPI:  111

Overall record:  16-9

Good wins:  None (Wisconsin (62))

Bad losses:  1 (Penn State (108))

11.  Illinois

RPI:  115

Overall record:  11-13

Good wins:  1 (Purdue (21))

Bad losses:  2 (North Florida* (147), Nebraska (156))

12.  Nebraska

RPI:  156

Overall record:  13-11

Good wins:  1 (at Michigan State (17))

Bad losses:  2 (Northwestern (111), Samford (255))

13.  Minnesota

RPI:  241

Overall record:  6-17

Good wins:  None (Clemson (88))

Bad losses:  8 (at Penn State (108), Northwestern (111), at Northwestern (111), Illinois (115), Oklahoma State* (146), at Nebraska (156), Milwaukee (169), South Dakota (187))

14.  Rutgers

RPI:  249

Overall record:  5-18

Good wins:  None (Farleigh Dickinson (212))

Bad losses:  4 (Illinois (115), Nebraska (156), at Nebraska (156), at St. John's (203))