Updated Big Ten Tournament Seeding Predictions and NCAA Tournament Resumes

Things in the Big Ten race are becoming clearer, but at the same time muddier.  The Hoosiers held off a late rally Saturday night to beat Purdon't.  It was quite satisfying.  Yesterday, Maryland squeaked by Michigan, and Wisconsin came from behind to beat Illinois.

IU controls its own destiny in the Big Ten title race.  If the Hoosiers win their last three games, they will win the Big Ten title outright.  The good folks at Crimson Quarry have broken down all of the scenarios under which IU can clinch at least a share of the Big Ten title.  My favorite (read: least favorite) is the all-out chaos possibility of a seven-way tie for the Big Ten title at 12-6, which can happen if:

-IU loses its three remaining games

-Iowa beats IU, but loses its other two games

-Maryland beats IU, but loses its other two games

-Michigan State and Ohio State split their two games against each other and win their remaining games

-Michigan wins out

-Purdue and Wisconsin each end up at 11-6 before their meeting to finish the regular season, the winner of which would be the seventh team to tie for the title

Next games

The next games are tomorrow night.  Here they are (all times Eastern):

-Rutgers at Minnesota (7 p.m.; BTN)

-Michigan State at Ohio State (9 p.m.; ESPN)

Current Standings

Here are the current standings, with the conference record, each team's remaining Big Ten games, and my predictions.  I will try to update these after every day or every couple days of games.

1.  Indiana (12-3):  at Illinois (W); at Iowa (L); Maryland (W)

2.  Iowa (11-3):  Wisconsin (W); at Ohio State (W); Indiana (W); at Michigan (L)

3.  Maryland (11-4):  at Purdue (L); Illinois (W); at Indiana (L)

4.  Ohio State (10-5):  Michigan State (L); Iowa (L); at Michigan State (L)

5 (tie).  Michigan State (9-5):  at Ohio State (W); Penn State (W); at Rutgers (W); Ohio State (W)

5 (tie).  Wisconsin (9-5):  at Iowa (L); Michigan (W); at Minnesota (W); at Purdue (L)

7 (tie). Michigan (9-6):  Northwestern (W); at Wisconsin (L); Iowa (W)

7 (tie).  Purdue (9-6):   Maryland (W); at Nebraska (W); Wisconsin (W)

9.  Nebraska (6-9):  at Penn State (W); Purdue (L); at Northwestern (L)

10 (tie).  Northwestern (5-9):  at Michigan (L); Rutgers (W); at Penn State (L); Nebraska (W)

10 (tie).  Penn State (5-9):  Nebraska (L); at Michigan State (L); Northwestern (W); Illinois (W)

12.  Illinois (4-10):  Indiana (L); Minnesota (W); at Maryland (L); at Penn State (L)

13.  Minnesota (1-13):  Rutgers (W); at Illinois (L); Wisconsin (L); at Rutgers (L)

14.  Rutgers (0-14):  at Minnesota (L); at Northwestern (L); Michigan State (L); Minnesota (W)

Projected Big Ten Tournament Seeding

Given my predictions and Big Ten tiebreaking rules, here is how the Big Ten Tournament seeds should fall into place:

1.  Iowa (14-4) (would have tiebreaker over IU based on better record vs. Michigan State)

2.  Indiana (14-4)

3.  Michigan State (13-5)

4.  Maryland (12-6) (would have tiebreaker over Purdue based on better combined record vs. IU and Iowa)

5.  Purdue (12-6)

6.  Wisconsin (11-7) (would have tiebreaker over Michigan based on 1-0 record vs. Michigan)

7.  Michigan (11-7)

8.  Ohio State (10-8)

9.  Penn State (7-11) (would have tiebreaker over Nebraska and Northwestern based on better record vs. IU and Iowa)

10.  Nebraska (7-11) (would have tiebreaker over Northwestern based on better record vs. Michigan State)

11.  Northwestern (7-11)

12.  Illinois (5-13)

13.  Minnesota (2-16)

14.  Rutgers (1-17)

Big Ten Tournament Schedule

Here are the dates/times/TV schedule for the Big Ten Tournament (and a link to the bracket), which will be in Indianapolis.  All times are Eastern.

Wednesday March 9 – First Round

(12) vs. (13) (4:30 p.m. ESPN2)

(11) vs. (14) (7 p.m. BTN)

Thursday March 10 – Second Round

(8) vs. (9) (Noon, BTN)

(5) vs. (12)/(13) (2:30 p.m., BTN)

(7) vs. (10) (6:30 p.m., ESPN2)

(6) vs. (11)/(14) (9 p.m., ESPN2)

Friday March 11 – Quarterfinals

(1) vs. (8)/(9) (Noon, ESPN)

(4) vs. (5)/(12)/(13) (2:30 p.m., ESPN)

(2) vs. (7)/(10) (6:30 p.m., BTN)

(3) vs. (6)/(11)/(14) (9 p.m., BTN)

Saturday March 12 – Semifinals

(1)/(8)/(9) vs. (4)/(5)/(12)/(13) (1 p.m., CBS)

(2)/(7)/(10) vs. (3)/(6)/(11)/(14) (3:30 p.m., CBS)

Sunday March 13 – Finals

(1)/(4)/(5)/(8)/(9)/(12)/(13) vs. (2)/(3)/(6)/(7)/(10)/(11)/(14) (3 p.m., CBS)

NCAA Tournament Resumes for All 14 Big Ten Teams

Here is each Big Ten team's NCAA Tournament resume, including each team's RPI (based on ESPN's daily RPI), overall record against D-1 opponents, "good" wins (wins against RPI Top 50 teams or, if none, the team's best win), "bad" losses (losses against teams with an RPI of 101+ or, if none, the team's worst loss).  An * means the game was played on a neutral court, and for the "good" wins and "bad" losses, the team's current RPI is identified.  I have categorized the teams by "In," "Bubble," or "Out," which is my best guess, based on what I know right now, as to whether each team is a lock for the NCAA Tournament, is on the bubble, or is out.

In

1.  Maryland

RPI:  9

Overall record:  22-5

Good wins:  5 (Iowa (13), Purdue (21), Connecticut* (38), Princeton* (40), at Wisconsin (44))

Bad losses:  1 (at Minnesota (217))

2.  Iowa

RPI:  13

Overall record:  20-6

Good wins:  5 (Michigan State (16), at Michigan State (16), Purdue (21), at Purdue (21), Wichita State* (45))

Bad losses:  1 (at Penn State (106))

3.  Michigan State

RPI:  16

Overall record:  22-5

Good wins:  7 (Kansas* (1), Maryland (9), Louisville (19), Indiana (29), Florida (32), Providence* (37), Wisconsin (44))

Bad losses:  1 (Nebraska (160))

4.  Purdue

RPI:  21

Overall record:  21-7

Good wins:  4 (Michigan State (16), Florida* (32), at Pittsburgh (35), at Wisconsin (44))

Bad losses:  1 (at Illinois (137))

5.  Indiana

RPI:  29

Overall record:  22-6

Good wins:  4 (Iowa (15), Purdue (21), Notre Dame* (20), Wisconsin (48))

Bad losses:  3 (at Penn State (108), Wake Forest* (121), UNLV* (130))

Bubble

6.  Wisconsin

RPI:  44

Overall record:  17-10

Good wins:  4 (at Maryland (9), Michigan State (16), Indiana (29), VCU* (49))

Bad losses:  4 (at Northwestern (103), Marquette (111), Milwaukee (156), Western Illinois (257))

7.  Michigan

RPI:  54

Overall record:  18-9

Good wins:  3 (Maryland (9), Purdue (21), Texas* (28))

Bad losses:  None (at Ohio State (74))

Out

8.  Ohio State

RPI:  74

Overall record:  18-10

Good wins:  1 (Kentucky* (12))

Bad losses:  3 (UT-Arlington (112), Louisiana Tech (116), Memphis* (153))

10.  Northwestern

RPI:  103

Overall record:  17-10

Good wins:  1 (Wisconsin (44))

Bad losses:  1 (Penn State (106))

9.  Penn State

RPI:  106

Overall record:  14-13

Good wins:  2 (Iowa (13), Indiana (29))

Bad losses:  3 (Duquesne* (135), at Nebraska (160), Radford (164))

11.  Illinois

RPI:  137

Overall record:  12-15

Good wins:  1 (Purdue (21))

Bad losses:  3 (at Northwestern (103), Nebraska (160), North Florida* (167))

12.  Nebraska

RPI:  160

Overall record:  14-14

Good wins:  1 (at Michigan State (16))

Bad losses:  2 (Northwestern (103), Samford (271))

13.  Minnesota

RPI:  217

Overall record:  7-19

Good wins:  1 (Maryland (9))

Bad losses:  8 (Northwestern (103), at Northwestern (103), at Penn State (106), Illinois (137), Oklahoma State* (148), Milwaukee (156), at Nebraska (160), South Dakota (185))

14.  Rutgers

RPI:  272

Overall record:  5-21

Good wins:  None (Farleigh Dickinson (249))

Bad losses:  7 (Penn State (106), Wake Forest (121), Illinois (137), at Illinois (137), Nebraska (160), at Nebraska (160), at St. John's (210))