Updated Big Ten Tournament Seeding Predictions and NCAA Tournament Resumes

And there it is, folks.  Thanks to Purdue's home victory over Maryland on Saturday and Ohio State's upset win at home over Iowa yesterday, the Hoosiers clinched a share of their 22nd Big Ten title.  If you would have told me after we were 5-3 and had just been blown out by Duke that we would lose our second-leading scorer for the year before the Big Ten season started and yet still win the Big Ten title, I would have punched you in the crotch, whether you are a male, female, or eunuch.  And today, I would have apologized to you, probably with an Edible Arrangement followed by a stripper gram.  Fuckin' A, Hoosiers!

With one week left in the Big Ten season, much is still up in the air, however.  There are still four teams that have a chance to share the Big Ten title with IU:  Iowa, Maryland, Michigan State, and Wisconsin.

IU clinches the outright Big Ten title if:

1.  IU wins at least one of its remaining two games; or

2.  IU loses to both Iowa and Maryland, but both Iowa and Maryland lose their other remaining game, and Michigan State and Wisconsin both lose at least one more game.

I was going to try to work out all of the various seeding scenarios if IU loses both of its remaining games and ties with one or more of the other four teams at 13-5, but I quickly realized that it would take hours to figure everything out -- maybe tomorrow.  Instead, I'll just give you the seeds if all five teams tie.  If that happens, assuming all of my other predictions would hold true, that would mean that Ohio State and Purdue would tie for 6th place at 11-7, Michigan would be 8th place at 10-8, and Penn State would be 9th place at 8-10, which is important for tie-breaking purposes.

1.  Maryland (3-2 vs. IU, Iowa, MSU, and Wisconsin)

2.  Wisconsin (4-3 vs. IU, Iowa, Maryland, and MSU)

3.  Michigan State (3-3 vs. IU, Iowa, Maryland, and Wisconsin, 2-1 vs. Ohio State and Purdue, 1-0 vs. Michigan, and 2-0 vs. Penn State

4.  Iowa (3-3 vs. IU, Maryland, MSU, and Wisconsin, 2-1 vs. Ohio State and Purdue, 2-0 vs. Michigan, and 1-1 vs. Penn State)

5.  IU (2-4 vs. Iowa, Maryland, MSU, Wisconsin)

Let's hope it doesn't come to that.

Next games

The next games are Tuesday.  Here they are (all times Eastern):

-Purdue at Nebraska (8 p.m.; BTN)

-Indiana at Iowa (9 p.m.; ESPN)

Current Standings

Here are the current standings, with the conference record, each team's remaining Big Ten games, and my predictions.  I will try to update these after every day or every couple days of games.

1.  Indiana (13-3):  at Iowa (L); Maryland (W)

2 (tie).  Iowa (11-5):  Indiana (W); at Michigan (L)

2 (tie).  Maryland (11-5):  Illinois (W); at Indiana (L)

2 (tie).  Michigan State (11-5):  at Rutgers (W); Ohio State (W)

2 (tie).  Wisconsin (11-5):  at Minnesota (W); at Purdue (L)

6.  Ohio State (11-6):  at Michigan State (L)

7.  Purdue (10-6):   at Nebraska (W); Wisconsin (W)

8.  Michigan (10-7):  Iowa (W)

9.  Penn State (6-10):  Northwestern (W); Illinois (W)

10.  Nebraska (6-10):  Purdue (L); at Northwestern (L)

11.  Northwestern (6-10):  at Penn State (L); Nebraska (W)

12.  Illinois (5-11):  at Maryland (L); at Penn State (L)

13.  Minnesota (2-14):  Wisconsin (L); at Rutgers (L)

14.  Rutgers (0-16):  Michigan State (L); Minnesota (W)

Projected Big Ten Tournament Seeding

Given my predictions and Big Ten tiebreaking rules, here is how the Big Ten Tournament seeds should fall into place:

1.  Indiana (14-4)

2.  Michigan State (13-5)

3.  Maryland (12-6) (would have tiebreaker over other three teams based on 3-2 record vs. other three teams)

4.  Iowa (12-6) (both Iowa and Purdue would have .500 record vs. other three teams, but would have tiebreaker over Purdue based on better record vs. Indiana)

5.  Purdue (12-6)

6.  Wisconsin (12-6) (would lose tiebreaker vs. other three teams based on 2-3 record vs. other three teams)

7.  Ohio State (11-7) (holds tiebreaker over Michigan based on 1-0 record vs. OSU)

8.  Michigan (11-7)

9.  Penn State (8-10)

10.  Northwestern (7-11)

11.  Nebraska (6-12)

12.  Illinois (5-13)

13.  Minnesota (2-16)

14.  Rutgers (1-17)

Big Ten Tournament Schedule

Here are the dates/times/TV schedule for the Big Ten Tournament (and a link to the bracket), which will be in Indianapolis.  All times are Eastern.

Wednesday March 9 – First Round

(12) vs. (13) (4:30 p.m. ESPN2)

(11) vs. (14) (7 p.m. BTN)

Thursday March 10 – Second Round

(8) vs. (9) (Noon, BTN)

(5) vs. (12)/(13) (2:30 p.m., BTN)

(7) vs. (10) (6:30 p.m., ESPN2)

(6) vs. (11)/(14) (9 p.m., ESPN2)

Friday March 11 – Quarterfinals

(1) vs. (8)/(9) (Noon, ESPN)

(4) vs. (5)/(12)/(13) (2:30 p.m., ESPN)

(2) vs. (7)/(10) (6:30 p.m., BTN)

(3) vs. (6)/(11)/(14) (9 p.m., BTN)

Saturday March 12 – Semifinals

(1)/(8)/(9) vs. (4)/(5)/(12)/(13) (1 p.m., CBS)

(2)/(7)/(10) vs. (3)/(6)/(11)/(14) (3:30 p.m., CBS)

Sunday March 13 – Finals

(1)/(4)/(5)/(8)/(9)/(12)/(13) vs. (2)/(3)/(6)/(7)/(10)/(11)/(14) (3 p.m., CBS)

NCAA Tournament Resumes for All 14 Big Ten Teams

Here is each Big Ten team's NCAA Tournament resume, including each team's RPI (based on ESPN's daily RPI), overall record against D-1 opponents, "good" wins (wins against RPI Top 50 teams or, if none, the team's best win), "bad" losses (losses against teams with an RPI of 101+ or, if none, the team's worst loss).  An * means the game was played on a neutral court, and for the "good" wins and "bad" losses, the team's current RPI is identified.  I have categorized the teams by "In," "Bubble," or "Out," which is my best guess, based on what I know right now, as to whether each team is a lock for the NCAA Tournament, is on the bubble, or is out.  I have also added a record vs. the RPI Top 50 and Top 100.

In

1.  Maryland

RPI:  10

Overall record:  22-6

Record vs. RPI Top 50:  4-4

Record vs. RPI Top 100:  8-5

Good wins:  4 (Purdue (18), Iowa (22), at Wisconsin (32), Princeton* (35))

Bad losses:  1 (at Minnesota (235))

2.  Michigan State

RPI:  12

Overall record:  24-5

Record vs. RPI Top 50:  7-4

Record vs. RPI Top 100:  10-4

Good wins:  7 (Kansas* (1), Maryland (10), Louisville (17), Indiana (27), Wisconsin (32), Providence* (44), Florida (45))

Bad losses:  1 (Nebraska (167))

3.  Purdue

RPI:  18

Overall record:  22-7

Record vs. RPI Top 50:  6-4

Record vs. RPI Top 100:  8-6

Good wins:  6 (Maryland (10), Michigan State (12), at Wisconsin (32), at Pittsburgh (37), Florida* (45), Vanderbilt (48))

Bad losses:  1 (at Illinois (144))

4.  Iowa

RPI:  22

Overall record:  20-8

Record vs. RPI Top 50:  5-6

Record vs. RPI Top 100:  7-7

Good wins:  5 (Michigan State (12), at Michigan State (12), Purdue (18), at Purdue (18), Wichita State* (41))

Bad losses:  1 (at Penn State (105))

5.  Indiana

RPI:  27

Overall record:  23-6

Record vs. RPI Top 50:  4-3

Record vs. RPI Top 100:  8-3

Good wins:  4 (Purdue (18), Iowa (22), Notre Dame* (30), Wisconsin (32))

Bad losses:  3 (at Penn State (105), UNLV* (134), Wake Forest* (135))

6.  Wisconsin

RPI:  32

Overall record:  19-10

Record vs. RPI Top 50:  5-5

Record vs. RPI Top 100:  10-5

Good wins:  5 (at Maryland (10), Michigan State (12), at Iowa (22), Indiana (27), VCU* (46))

Bad losses:  5 (Georgetown* (102), Marquette (111), at Northwestern (117), Milwaukee (165), Western Illinois (253))

Bubble

7.  Michigan

RPI:  57

Overall record:  19-10

Record vs. RPI Top 50:  3-8

Record vs. RPI Top 100:  3-10

Good wins:  3 (Maryland (10), Purdue (18), Texas* (20))

Bad losses:  None (at Ohio State (73))

8.  Ohio State

RPI:  73

Overall record:  19-11

Record vs. RPI Top 50:  2-7

Record vs. RPI Top 100:  3-8

Good wins:  2 (Kentucky* (15), Iowa (22))

Bad losses:  3 (UT-Arlington (101), Louisiana Tech (119), Memphis* (158))

Out

9.  Penn State

RPI:  105

Overall record:  15-14

Record vs. RPI Top 50:  2-7

Record vs. RPI Top 100:  2-11

Good wins:  2 (Iowa (22), Indiana (27))

Bad losses:  3 (Duquesne* (155), at Nebraska (167), Radford (179))

10.  Northwestern

RPI:  117

Overall record:  18-11

Record vs. RPI Top 50:  1-7

Record vs. RPI Top 100:  1-10

Good wins:  1 (Wisconsin (32))

Bad losses:  1 (Penn State (105))

11.  Illinois

RPI:  144

Overall record:  13-16

Record vs. RPI Top 50:  1-9

Record vs. RPI Top 100:  3-13

Good wins:  1 (Purdue (18))

Bad losses:  3 (at Northwestern (117), North Florida* (159), Nebraska (167))

12.  Nebraska

RPI:  167

Overall record:  14-15

Record vs. RPI Top 50:  1-8

Record vs. RPI Top 100:  1-12

Good wins:  1 (at Michigan State (12))

Bad losses:  3 (at Penn State (105), Northwestern (117), Samford (256))

13.  Minnesota

RPI:  235

Overall record:  8-20

Record vs. RPI Top 50:  1-7

Record vs. RPI Top 100:  1-11

Good wins:  1 (Maryland (10))

Bad losses:  9 (at Penn State (105), Northwestern (117), at Northwestern (117), Illinois (144), at Illinois (144), Oklahoma State* (157), Milwaukee (165), at Nebraska (167), South Dakota (192))

14.  Rutgers

RPI:  284

Overall record:  5-23

Record vs. RPI Top 50:  0-7

Record vs. RPI Top 100:  0-13

Good wins:  None (Farleigh Dickinson (229))

Bad losses:  10 (Penn State (105), Clemson* (114), at Northwestern (117), Wake Forest (135), Illinois (144), at Illinois (144), Nebraska (167), at Nebraska (167), at St. John's (222), at Minnesota (235))