Updated Big Ten Tournament Seeding Predictions and NCAA Tournament Resumes

Last night, everything went as expected, as Michigan State put a pretty big dent in Ohio State's NCAA Tournament hopes by beating the Buckeyes by 19 in Columbus.  Elsewhere, Minnesota beat Rutgers to all but secure that coveted 13-seed in the Big Ten Tournament.  Rutgers continues to distinguish itself as the worst major conference men's basketball team this year, with an RPI of 280 -- below the likes of Idaho State, Kennesaw State, and Liberty, and nearly 50 spots worse than the next-worst major conference team (Boston College at 232).  There is a very real possibility that Rutgers will go 0-18 in the Big Ten, making the Scarlet Knights the first team since Northwestern in the 1999-2000 season to go winless in the Big Ten.

Tonight's matchup between Wisconsin and Iowa is a huge one.  The Badgers can really help their NCAA Tournament chances with a win in Iowa City, and the Hawkeyes need a win to keep pace with Indiana at the top of the conference standings.

Next games

Here are tonight's games (all times Eastern):

-Northwestern at Michigan (7 p.m.; BTN)

-Wisconsin at Iowa (9 p.m.; BTN)

Current Standings

Here are the current standings, with the conference record, each team's remaining Big Ten games, and my predictions.  I will try to update these after every day or every couple days of games.

1.  Indiana (12-3):  at Illinois (W); at Iowa (L); Maryland (W)

2.  Iowa (11-3):  Wisconsin (W); at Ohio State (W); Indiana (W); at Michigan (L)

3.  Maryland (11-4):  at Purdue (L); Illinois (W); at Indiana (L)

4.  Michigan State (10-5):  Penn State (W); at Rutgers (W); Ohio State (W)

5.  Wisconsin (9-5):  at Iowa (L); Michigan (W); at Minnesota (W); at Purdue (L)

6.  Ohio State (10-6):  Iowa (L); at Michigan State (L)

7 (tie). Michigan (9-6):  Northwestern (W); at Wisconsin (L); Iowa (W)

7 (tie).  Purdue (9-6):   Maryland (W); at Nebraska (W); Wisconsin (W)

9.  Nebraska (6-9):  at Penn State (W); Purdue (L); at Northwestern (L)

10 (tie).  Northwestern (5-9):  at Michigan (L); Rutgers (W); at Penn State (L); Nebraska (W)

10 (tie).  Penn State (5-9):  Nebraska (L); at Michigan State (L); Northwestern (W); Illinois (W)

12.  Illinois (4-10):  Indiana (L); Minnesota (W); at Maryland (L); at Penn State (L)

13.  Minnesota (2-13):  at Illinois (L); Wisconsin (L); at Rutgers (L)

14.  Rutgers (0-15):  at Northwestern (L); Michigan State (L); Minnesota (W)

Projected Big Ten Tournament Seeding

Given my predictions and Big Ten tiebreaking rules, here is how the Big Ten Tournament seeds should fall into place:

1.  Iowa (14-4) (would have tiebreaker over IU based on better record vs. Michigan State)

2.  Indiana (14-4)

3.  Michigan State (13-5)

4.  Maryland (12-6) (would have tiebreaker over Purdue based on better combined record vs. IU and Iowa)

5.  Purdue (12-6)

6.  Wisconsin (11-7) (would have tiebreaker over Michigan based on 1-0 record vs. Michigan)

7.  Michigan (11-7)

8.  Ohio State (10-8)

9.  Penn State (7-11) (would have tiebreaker over Nebraska and Northwestern based on better record vs. IU and Iowa)

10.  Nebraska (7-11) (would have tiebreaker over Northwestern based on better record vs. Michigan State)

11.  Northwestern (7-11)

12.  Illinois (5-13)

13.  Minnesota (2-16)

14.  Rutgers (1-17)

Big Ten Tournament Schedule

Here are the dates/times/TV schedule for the Big Ten Tournament (and a link to the bracket), which will be in Indianapolis.  All times are Eastern.

Wednesday March 9 – First Round

(12) vs. (13) (4:30 p.m. ESPN2)

(11) vs. (14) (7 p.m. BTN)

Thursday March 10 – Second Round

(8) vs. (9) (Noon, BTN)

(5) vs. (12)/(13) (2:30 p.m., BTN)

(7) vs. (10) (6:30 p.m., ESPN2)

(6) vs. (11)/(14) (9 p.m., ESPN2)

Friday March 11 – Quarterfinals

(1) vs. (8)/(9) (Noon, ESPN)

(4) vs. (5)/(12)/(13) (2:30 p.m., ESPN)

(2) vs. (7)/(10) (6:30 p.m., BTN)

(3) vs. (6)/(11)/(14) (9 p.m., BTN)

Saturday March 12 – Semifinals

(1)/(8)/(9) vs. (4)/(5)/(12)/(13) (1 p.m., CBS)

(2)/(7)/(10) vs. (3)/(6)/(11)/(14) (3:30 p.m., CBS)

Sunday March 13 – Finals

(1)/(4)/(5)/(8)/(9)/(12)/(13) vs. (2)/(3)/(6)/(7)/(10)/(11)/(14) (3 p.m., CBS)

NCAA Tournament Resumes for All 14 Big Ten Teams

Here is each Big Ten team's NCAA Tournament resume, including each team's RPI (based on ESPN's daily RPI), overall record against D-1 opponents, "good" wins (wins against RPI Top 50 teams or, if none, the team's best win), "bad" losses (losses against teams with an RPI of 101+ or, if none, the team's worst loss).  An * means the game was played on a neutral court, and for the "good" wins and "bad" losses, the team's current RPI is identified.  I have categorized the teams by "In," "Bubble," or "Out," which is my best guess, based on what I know right now, as to whether each team is a lock for the NCAA Tournament, is on the bubble, or is out.

In

1.  Maryland

RPI:  10

Overall record:  22-5

Good wins:  5 (Iowa (15), Purdue (21), Princeton* (38), Connecticut* (39), at Wisconsin (42))

Bad losses:  1 (at Minnesota (224))

2.  Michigan State

RPI:  13

Overall record:  23-5

Good wins:  7 (Kansas* (1), Maryland (10), Louisville (19), Indiana (29), Providence* (36), Florida (40), Wisconsin (42))

Bad losses:  1 (Nebraska (162))

3.  Iowa

RPI:  15

Overall record:  20-6

Good wins:  5 (Michigan State (13), at Michigan State (13), Purdue (21), at Purdue (21), Wichita State* (47))

Bad losses:  1 (at Penn State (107))

4.  Purdue

RPI:  21

Overall record:  21-7

Good wins:  4 (Michigan State (13), at Pittsburgh (34), Florida* (40), at Wisconsin (42))

Bad losses:  1 (at Illinois (140))

5.  Indiana

RPI:  29

Overall record:  22-6

Good wins:  4 (Iowa (15), Purdue (21), Notre Dame* (27), Wisconsin (42))

Bad losses:  3 (at Penn State (107), Wake Forest* (124), UNLV* (135))

Bubble

6.  Wisconsin

RPI:  42

Overall record:  17-10

Good wins:  4 (at Maryland (10), Michigan State (13), Indiana (29), VCU* (46))

Bad losses:  4 (at Northwestern (104), Marquette (112), Milwaukee (157), Western Illinois (254))

7.  Michigan

RPI:  55

Overall record:  18-9

Good wins:  3 (Maryland (10), Purdue (21), Texas* (23))

Bad losses:  None (at Ohio State (79))

Out

8.  Ohio State

RPI:  79

Overall record:  18-11

Good wins:  1 (Kentucky* (11))

Bad losses:  3 (UT-Arlington (111), Louisiana Tech (115), Memphis* (155))

10.  Northwestern

RPI:  104

Overall record:  17-10

Good wins:  1 (Wisconsin (42))

Bad losses:  1 (Penn State (107))

9.  Penn State

RPI:  107

Overall record:  14-13

Good wins:  2 (Iowa (15), Indiana (29))

Bad losses:  3 (Duquesne* (133), at Nebraska (162), Radford (163))

11.  Illinois

RPI:  140

Overall record:  12-15

Good wins:  1 (Purdue (21))

Bad losses:  3 (at Northwestern (104), Nebraska (162), North Florida* (166))

12.  Nebraska

RPI:  162

Overall record:  14-14

Good wins:  1 (at Michigan State (13))

Bad losses:  2 (Northwestern (104), Samford (269))

13.  Minnesota

RPI:  224

Overall record:  8-19

Good wins:  1 (Maryland (10))

Bad losses:  8 (Northwestern (104), at Northwestern (104), at Penn State (107), Illinois (140), Oklahoma State* (150), Milwaukee (157), at Nebraska (162), South Dakota (186))

14.  Rutgers

RPI:  280

Overall record:  5-22

Good wins:  None (Farleigh Dickinson (248))

Bad losses:  9 (Clemson* (103), Penn State (107), Wake Forest (124), Illinois (140), at Illinois (140), Nebraska (162), at Nebraska (162), at St. John's (210), at Minnesota (224))