Updated Big Ten Tournament Seeding Predictions and NCAA Tournament Resumes

Last night, we saw Penn State take down Nebraska, which significantly helps the Nittany Lions' chances of ending the season with a winning record to get a berth in the NIT.  It's adorable, really.

In the other game, my beloved Hoosiers traveled to Champaign to take on the reeling Illini.  IU fell behind 14-4 with about 14 minutes left in the first half.  Over the next 26 minutes of game time, IU outscored Illinois 70-33 to leave the fake Assembly Hall (nka State Farm Center) with a 74-47 victory.  In the second half alone, Yogi Ferrell scored 19 points, which is exactly how many points Illinois scored in the second half.

As a Hoosier fan growing up in the suburbs of Chicago during the "Flying Illini" era, I have a special hatred of Illinois, so it's always nice to sweep the Illini, especially in such spectacular fashion.  In their two games this season, IU hit 32 3s and outscored U of I 177-116.

But more importantly, the win puts the Hoosiers very close to clinching at least a share of the Big Ten regular season title (and prevents any possibility of that insane 7-way tie scenario –- sorry Michigan, Ohio State, and Purdue).  With one more win, the Hoosiers can do no worse than the 2-seed in the Big Ten Tournament.  

Here are the various scenarios under which IU can clinch a share of the title or the outright title:

IU clinches at least a share of the Big Ten title if:

1.  IU wins either of its next two games (at Iowa Tuesday 3/1 and Maryland at home Sunday 3/6); or

2.  Iowa and Maryland lose at least one of their respective remaining games.

IU clinches the outright Big Ten title if:

1.  IU wins its remaining two games;

2.  IU beats Iowa, loses to Maryland, and Maryland loses either at Purdue this Saturday or to Illinois next Thursday;

3.  IU beats Maryland, loses to Iowa, and Iowa loses either at Ohio State this Sunday or at Michigan Saturday 3/5; or

4.  IU loses to both Iowa and Maryland, but both Iowa and Maryland lose their other two remaining games, and Michigan State and Wisconsin both lose at least one more game.

IU has already clinched its best conference record since it won the outright Big Ten title in the 2012-2013 season, going 14-4.  If IU wins its remaining two games, it will have a 15-3 conference record, which would be its best conference record since going 17-1 in 1992-1993 and winning the Big Ten title by two games over the Fab Five.

Next games

Here are this weekend's games (all times Eastern):

Saturday

-Rutgers at Northwestern (2 p.m.; ESPNU)

-Maryland at Purdue (4 p.m.; ESPN)

Sunday

-Penn State at Michigan State (12 p.m.; BTN)

-Iowa at Ohio State (4 p.m.; CBS)

-Michigan at Wisconsin (6 p.m.; BTN)

-Minnesota at Illinois (8 p.m.; BTN)

Current Standings

Here are the current standings, with the conference record, each team's remaining Big Ten games, and my predictions.  I will try to update these after every day or every couple days of games.

1.  Indiana (13-3):  at Iowa (L); Maryland (W)

2 (tie).  Iowa (11-4):  at Ohio State (W); Indiana (W); at Michigan (L)

2 (tie).  Maryland (11-4):  at Purdue (L); Illinois (W); at Indiana (L)

4 (tie).  Michigan State (10-5):  Penn State (W); at Rutgers (W); Ohio State (W)

4 (tie).  Wisconsin (10-5):  Michigan (W); at Minnesota (W); at Purdue (L)

6 (tie).  Michigan (10-6):  at Wisconsin (L); Iowa (W)

6 (tie).  Ohio State (10-6):  Iowa (L); at Michigan State (L)

8.  Purdue (9-6):   Maryland (W); at Nebraska (W); Wisconsin (W)

9.  Penn State (6-9):  at Michigan State (L); Northwestern (W); Illinois (W)
10.  Nebraska (6-10):  Purdue (L); at Northwestern (L)

11.  Northwestern (5-10):  Rutgers (W); at Penn State (L); Nebraska (W)

12.  Illinois (4-11):  Minnesota (W); at Maryland (L); at Penn State (L)

13.  Minnesota (2-13):  at Illinois (L); Wisconsin (L); at Rutgers (L)

14.  Rutgers (0-15):  at Northwestern (L); Michigan State (L); Minnesota (W)

Projected Big Ten Tournament Seeding

Given my predictions and Big Ten tiebreaking rules, here is how the Big Ten Tournament seeds should fall into place:

1.  Indiana (14-4)

2.  Iowa (13-5) (would have tiebreaker over MSU based on 2-0 record vs. MSU)

3.  Michigan State (13-5)

4.  Purdue (12-6) (would hold tiebreaker over Maryland and Wisconsin based on 3-1 record vs. other two teams, while Maryland would have 2-2 record and Wisconsin would have 1-3 record)

5.  Maryland (12-6)

6.  Wisconsin (12-6)

7.  Michigan (11-7)

8.  Ohio State (10-8)

9.  Penn State (8-10)

10.  Northwestern (7-11)

11.  Nebraska (6-12)

12.  Illinois (5-13)

13.  Minnesota (2-16)

14.  Rutgers (1-17)

Big Ten Tournament Schedule

Here are the dates/times/TV schedule for the Big Ten Tournament (and a link to the bracket), which will be in Indianapolis.  All times are Eastern.

Wednesday March 9 – First Round

(12) vs. (13) (4:30 p.m. ESPN2)

(11) vs. (14) (7 p.m. BTN)

Thursday March 10 – Second Round

(8) vs. (9) (Noon, BTN)

(5) vs. (12)/(13) (2:30 p.m., BTN)

(7) vs. (10) (6:30 p.m., ESPN2)

(6) vs. (11)/(14) (9 p.m., ESPN2)

Friday March 11 – Quarterfinals

(1) vs. (8)/(9) (Noon, ESPN)

(4) vs. (5)/(12)/(13) (2:30 p.m., ESPN)

(2) vs. (7)/(10) (6:30 p.m., BTN)

(3) vs. (6)/(11)/(14) (9 p.m., BTN)

Saturday March 12 – Semifinals

(1)/(8)/(9) vs. (4)/(5)/(12)/(13) (1 p.m., CBS)

(2)/(7)/(10) vs. (3)/(6)/(11)/(14) (3:30 p.m., CBS)

Sunday March 13 – Finals

(1)/(4)/(5)/(8)/(9)/(12)/(13) vs. (2)/(3)/(6)/(7)/(10)/(11)/(14) (3 p.m., CBS)

NCAA Tournament Resumes for All 14 Big Ten Teams

Here is each Big Ten team's NCAA Tournament resume, including each team's RPI (based on ESPN's daily RPI), overall record against D-1 opponents, "good" wins (wins against RPI Top 50 teams or, if none, the team's best win), "bad" losses (losses against teams with an RPI of 101+ or, if none, the team's worst loss).  An * means the game was played on a neutral court, and for the "good" wins and "bad" losses, the team's current RPI is identified.  I have categorized the teams by "In," "Bubble," or "Out," which is my best guess, based on what I know right now, as to whether each team is a lock for the NCAA Tournament, is on the bubble, or is out.

In

1.  Maryland

RPI:  10

Overall record:  22-5

Good wins:  6 (Iowa (20), Purdue (21), at Wisconsin (34), Princeton* (39), Connecticut* (44), Michigan (50))

Bad losses:  1 (at Minnesota (223))

2.  Michigan State

RPI:  15

Overall record:  23-5

Good wins:  8 (Kansas* (1), Maryland (10), Louisville (16), Indiana (29), Wisconsin (34), Providence* (40), Florida (42), at Michigan (50))

Bad losses:  1 (Nebraska (169))

3.  Iowa

RPI:  20

Overall record:  20-7

Good wins:  6 (Michigan State (15), at Michigan State (15), Purdue (21), at Purdue (21), Wichita State* (47), Michigan (50))

Bad losses:  None (at Penn State (99))

4.  Purdue

RPI:  21

Overall record:  21-7

Good wins:  5 (Michigan State (15), at Wisconsin (34), at Pittsburgh (41), Florida* (42), Michigan (50))

Bad losses:  1 (at Illinois (144))

5.  Indiana

RPI:  29

Overall record:  23-6

Good wins:  5 (Iowa (20), Purdue (21), Notre Dame* (26), Wisconsin (34), at Michigan (50))

Bad losses:  2 (Wake Forest* (130), UNLV* (137))

6.  Wisconsin

RPI:  34

Overall record:  18-10

Good wins:  4 (at Maryland (10), Michigan State (15), at Iowa (20), Indiana (29))

Bad losses:  4 (Marquette (103), at Northwestern (109), Milwaukee (162), Western Illinois (257))

Bubble

7.  Michigan

RPI:  50

Overall record:  19-9

Good wins:  3 (Maryland (10), Purdue (21), Texas* (24))

Bad losses:  None (at Ohio State (78))

Out

8.  Ohio State

RPI:  78

Overall record:  18-11

Good wins:  2 (Kentucky* (12), Michigan (50))

Bad losses:  3 (UT-Arlington (106), Louisiana Tech (118), Memphis* (164))

9.  Penn State

RPI:  99

Overall record:  15-13

Good wins:  2 (Iowa (20), Indiana (29))

Bad losses:  3 (Duquesne* (135), Radford (159), at Nebraska (169))

10.  Northwestern

RPI:  109

Overall record:  17-11

Good wins:  1 (Wisconsin (34))

Bad losses:  None (Penn State (99))

11.  Illinois

RPI:  144

Overall record:  12-16

Good wins:  1 (Purdue (21))

Bad losses:  3 (at Northwestern (109), North Florida* (158), Nebraska (169))

12.  Nebraska

RPI:  169

Overall record:  14-14

Good wins:  1 (at Michigan State (15))

Bad losses:  2 (Northwestern (109), Samford (269))

13.  Minnesota

RPI:  223

Overall record:  8-19

Good wins:  1 (Maryland (10))

Bad losses:  7 (Northwestern (109), at Northwestern (109), Illinois (144), Oklahoma State* (148), Milwaukee (162), at Nebraska (169), South Dakota (179))

14.  Rutgers

RPI:  281

Overall record:  5-22

Good wins:  None (Farleigh Dickinson (235))

Bad losses:  8 (Clemson* (108), Wake Forest (130), Illinois (144), at Illinois (144), Nebraska (169), at Nebraska (169), at St. John's (222), at Minnesota (223))