Updated Big Ten Tournament Seeding Predictions and NCAA Tournament Resumes

Last night was an important night for the Big Ten standings and the Big Ten's representation in the NCAA Tournament.  Michigan did what they needed to do and beat Northwestern at home.  The win isn't necessarily a great one, but a loss would have been disastrous for the Wolverines.

In the other game, however, Wisconsin upset Iowa in Iowa City.  Not only does this mean that the Badgers have all but locked up an NCAA Tournament bid, but it also causes a major shake-up in Big Ten regular season title implications.  

Both IU and Maryland now control their own destinies.  If either team wins out, that team will clinch the 1-seed in the Big Ten Tournament.  If IU wins out, the Hoosiers will win the Big Ten title outright.  If IU beats Illinois tonight and Iowa next Tuesday and Maryland loses either to Purdue Saturday or Illinois next Thursday, then IU will clinch the outright Big Ten title regardless of whether IU beats Maryland on March 6.  It's a fun time to be a Big Ten basketball fan –- well, if your team is in the top half of the standings, anyway.

Next games

Here are tonight's games (all times Eastern):

-Nebraska at Penn State (7 p.m.; ESPNU)
-Indiana at Illinois (9 p.m.; ESPN)

Current Standings

Here are the current standings, with the conference record, each team's remaining Big Ten games, and my predictions.  I will try to update these after every day or every couple days of games.

1.  Indiana (12-3):  at Illinois (W); at Iowa (L); Maryland (W)

2 (tie).  Iowa (11-4):  at Ohio State (W); Indiana (W); at Michigan (L)

2 (tie).  Maryland (11-4):  at Purdue (L); Illinois (W); at Indiana (L)

4 (tie).  Michigan State (10-5):  Penn State (W); at Rutgers (W); Ohio State (W)

4 (tie).  Wisconsin (10-5):  Michigan (W); at Minnesota (W); at Purdue (L)

6 (tie).  Michigan (10-6):  at Wisconsin (L); Iowa (W)

6 (tie).  Ohio State (10-6):  Iowa (L); at Michigan State (L)

8.  Purdue (9-6):   Maryland (W); at Nebraska (W); Wisconsin (W)

9.  Nebraska (6-9):  at Penn State (W); Purdue (L); at Northwestern (L)

10.  Penn State (5-9):  Nebraska (L); at Michigan State (L); Northwestern (W); Illinois (W)

11.  Northwestern (5-10):  Rutgers (W); at Penn State (L); Nebraska (W)

12.  Illinois (4-10):  Indiana (L); Minnesota (W); at Maryland (L); at Penn State (L)

13.  Minnesota (2-13):  at Illinois (L); Wisconsin (L); at Rutgers (L)

14.  Rutgers (0-15):  at Northwestern (L); Michigan State (L); Minnesota (W)

Projected Big Ten Tournament Seeding

Given my predictions and Big Ten tiebreaking rules, here is how the Big Ten Tournament seeds should fall into place:

1.  Indiana (14-4)

2.  Iowa (13-5) (would have tiebreaker over MSU based on 2-0 record vs. MSU)

3.  Michigan State (13-5)

4.  Purdue (12-6) (would hold tiebreaker over Maryland and Wisconsin based on 3-1 record vs. other two teams, while Maryland would have 2-2 record and Wisconsin would have 1-3 record)

5.  Maryland (12-6)

6.  Wisconsin (12-6)

7.  Michigan (11-7)

8.  Ohio State (10-8)

9.  Penn State (7-11) (would have tiebreaker over Nebraska and Northwestern based on better record vs. IU and Iowa)

10.  Nebraska (7-11) (would have tiebreaker over Northwestern based on better record vs. Michigan State)

11.  Northwestern (7-11)

12.  Illinois (5-13)

13.  Minnesota (2-16)

14.  Rutgers (1-17)

Big Ten Tournament Schedule

Here are the dates/times/TV schedule for the Big Ten Tournament (and a link to the bracket), which will be in Indianapolis.  All times are Eastern.

Wednesday March 9 – First Round

(12) vs. (13) (4:30 p.m. ESPN2)

(11) vs. (14) (7 p.m. BTN)

Thursday March 10 – Second Round

(8) vs. (9) (Noon, BTN)

(5) vs. (12)/(13) (2:30 p.m., BTN)

(7) vs. (10) (6:30 p.m., ESPN2)

(6) vs. (11)/(14) (9 p.m., ESPN2)

Friday March 11 – Quarterfinals

(1) vs. (8)/(9) (Noon, ESPN)

(4) vs. (5)/(12)/(13) (2:30 p.m., ESPN)

(2) vs. (7)/(10) (6:30 p.m., BTN)

(3) vs. (6)/(11)/(14) (9 p.m., BTN)

Saturday March 12 – Semifinals

(1)/(8)/(9) vs. (4)/(5)/(12)/(13) (1 p.m., CBS)

(2)/(7)/(10) vs. (3)/(6)/(11)/(14) (3:30 p.m., CBS)

Sunday March 13 – Finals

(1)/(4)/(5)/(8)/(9)/(12)/(13) vs. (2)/(3)/(6)/(7)/(10)/(11)/(14) (3 p.m., CBS)

NCAA Tournament Resumes for All 14 Big Ten Teams

Here is each Big Ten team's NCAA Tournament resume, including each team's RPI (based on ESPN's daily RPI), overall record against D-1 opponents, "good" wins (wins against RPI Top 50 teams or, if none, the team's best win), "bad" losses (losses against teams with an RPI of 101+ or, if none, the team's worst loss).  An * means the game was played on a neutral court, and for the "good" wins and "bad" losses, the team's current RPI is identified.  I have categorized the teams by "In," "Bubble," or "Out," which is my best guess, based on what I know right now, as to whether each team is a lock for the NCAA Tournament, is on the bubble, or is out.

In

1.  Maryland

RPI:  10

Overall record:  22-5

Good wins:  6 (Iowa (20), Purdue (21), at Wisconsin (35), Princeton* (37), Connecticut* (39), Michigan (50))

Bad losses:  1 (at Minnesota (225))

2.  Michigan State

RPI:  14

Overall record:  23-5

Good wins:  8 (Kansas* (1), Maryland (10), Louisville (16), Indiana (30), Wisconsin (35), Providence* (38), Florida (40), at Michigan (50))

Bad losses:  1 (Nebraska (164))

3.  Iowa

RPI:  20

Overall record:  20-7

Good wins:  6 (Michigan State (14), at Michigan State (14), Purdue (20), at Purdue (20), Wichita State* (45), Michigan (50))

Bad losses:  1 (at Penn State (108))

4.  Purdue

RPI:  21

Overall record:  21-7

Good wins:  5 (Michigan State (14), at Wisconsin (35), Florida* (40), at Pittsburgh (41), Michigan (50))

Bad losses:  1 (at Illinois (141))

5.  Indiana

RPI:  30

Overall record:  22-6

Good wins:  5 (Iowa (20), Purdue (21), Notre Dame* (26), Wisconsin (35), at Michigan (50))

Bad losses:  3 (at Penn State (108), Wake Forest* (128), UNLV* (136))

6.  Wisconsin

RPI:  35

Overall record:  18-10

Good wins:  4 (at Maryland (10), Michigan State (14), at Iowa (20), Indiana (30))

Bad losses:  4 (Marquette (103), at Northwestern (105), Milwaukee (159), Western Illinois (257))

Bubble

7.  Michigan

RPI:  50

Overall record:  19-9

Good wins:  3 (Maryland (10), Purdue (21), Texas* (23))

Bad losses:  None (at Ohio State (78))

Out

8.  Ohio State

RPI:  78

Overall record:  18-11

Good wins:  2 (Kentucky* (11), Michigan (50))

Bad losses:  3 (UT-Arlington (113), Louisiana Tech (116), Memphis* (155))

10.  Northwestern

RPI:  105

Overall record:  17-11

Good wins:  1 (Wisconsin (35))

Bad losses:  1 (Penn State (108))

9.  Penn State

RPI:  108

Overall record:  14-13

Good wins:  2 (Iowa (20), Indiana (30))

Bad losses:  3 (Duquesne* (133), Radford (163), at Nebraska (164))

11.  Illinois

RPI:  141

Overall record:  12-15

Good wins:  1 (Purdue (21))

Bad losses:  3 (at Northwestern (105), Nebraska (164), North Florida* (167))

12.  Nebraska

RPI:  164

Overall record:  14-14

Good wins:  1 (at Michigan State (14))

Bad losses:  2 (Northwestern (105), Samford (270))

13.  Minnesota

RPI:  225

Overall record:  8-19

Good wins:  1 (Maryland (10))

Bad losses:  8 (Northwestern (105), at Northwestern (105), at Penn State (108), Illinois (141), Oklahoma State* (148), Milwaukee (159), at Nebraska (164), South Dakota (188))

14.  Rutgers

RPI:  281

Overall record:  5-22

Good wins:  None (Farleigh Dickinson (250))

Bad losses:  9 (Clemson* (106), Penn State (108), Wake Forest (128), Illinois (141), at Illinois (141), Nebraska (164), at Nebraska (164), at St. John's (209), at Minnesota (225))