Tuesday Top Ten: Mid-Majors and Low-Majors Most Deserving of an At-Large Bid to the NCAA Tournament

I feel like I haven't written enough about college basketball in the last few weeks, so if you'd be willing to indulge me for a few minutes, I'd like to provide a Tuesday Top Ten that analyzes a timely topic:  bubble teams from mid- and low-major conferences.  With so many mid- and low-major regular season champs having lost in their conference tournaments (and generally with how wide-open this college basketball season has been), there has been a decent amount of discussion over the last few days about which mid-majors and low-majors deserve an at-large bid to the NCAA Tournament.

I realize that not all conference tournaments have ended or been played.  Thus, I am going to assume for purposes of this post that all of the teams that haven't played yet are not going to win their respective conference tournaments.  Obviously, a lot of which mid-majors and low-majors get an at-large bid depends on how high-major bubble teams fare in their conference tournaments.  This post isn't meant to suggest that all of these teams deserve to get into the NCAA Tournament no matter what.  It's just meant to analyze the tournament resumes of the mid- and low-major teams that I think are most deserving of an at-large bid.

For purposes of this post, I am defining "mid-major" as a team not in the ACC, Big 12, Big East, Big Ten, Pac-12, SEC, or a league that typically receives more than one at-large bid.  I'm also excluding teams in other conferences that have been to a Final Four in the last five years or are traditional basketball powers (so, Butler, Cincinnati, UConn, Wichita State, and VCU are excluded).

I took a look at what I consider the top 16 mid- and low-major teams and compared each team's NCAA Tournament resume, including each team's RPI and BPI (based on ESPN's daily RPI and ESPN's BPI), overall record, road/neutral records, record vs. the RPI Top 50 and Top 100, "good" wins (wins against RPI Top 50 teams or, if none, the team's best win), "bad" losses (losses against teams with an RPI of 101+ or, if none, the team's worst loss).  An * means the game was played on a neutral court, and for the "good" wins and "bad" losses, the team's current RPI is identified.

With that, here is my list of the top ten mid- and low-major teams most deserving of an at-large bid to the NCAA Tournament.

Also considered:  Akron, Princeton, Stephen F. Austin, Stony Brook, UAB

10 (tie).  Valparaiso (26-6; 16-2 in Horizon League)
RPI:  56
BPI:  41
Road/neutral record:  12-5

Record vs. RPI Top 50:  1-1

Record vs. RPI Top 100:  4-2

Good wins:  1 (at Oregon State (29))

Bad losses:  4 (Green Bay* (125), Wright State (144), at Wright State (144), at Ball State (175))

10 (tie).  Arkansas-Little Rock (27-4; 17-3 in Sun Belt)
RPI:  48
BPI:  64
Road/neutral record:  13-4

Record vs. RPI Top 50:  1-1

Record vs. RPI Top 100:  2-1

Good wins:  1 (at San Diego State (44))

Bad losses:  3 (at Louisiana Monroe (111), at Appalachian State (265), at Arkansas State (280))

9.  George Washington (22-9; 11-7 in Atlantic 10)
RPI:  63
BPI:  59
Road/neutral record:  8-6

Record vs. RPI Top 50:  3-5

Record vs. RPI Top 100:  4-6

Good wins:  3 (Virginia (2), Seton Hall (34), at VCU (40))

Bad losses:  3 (Richmond (124), at DePaul (184), at St. Louis (205))

8.  Tulsa (20-10; 12-6 in AAC)
RPI:  54
BPI:  52
Road/neutral record:  8-7

Record vs. RPI Top 50:  3-5

Record vs. RPI Top 100:  8-8

Good wins:  3 (at SMU (11), Cincinnati (38), Wichita State (50))

Bad losses:  2 (Oral Roberts (148), at Memphis (149))

7.  Monmouth (27-7; 17-3 in MAAC)
RPI:  57
BPI:  87
Road/neutral record:  17-6

Record vs. RPI Top 50:  2-2

Record vs. RPI Top 100:  4-4

Good wins:  2 (Notre Dame* (36), USC* (43))

Bad losses:  3 (at Army (211), at Canisius (222), at Manhattan (231)

6.  San Diego State (23-8; 16-2 in Mountain West)
RPI:  44
BPI:  60
Road/neutral record:  10-4

Record vs. RPI Top 50:  1-4

Record vs. RPI Top 100:  4-7

Good wins:  1 (California* (15))

Bad losses:  1 (San Diego* (301))

5.  Temple (22-9; 14-4 in AAC)
RPI:  58
BPI:  73
Road/neutral record:  9-7

Record vs. RPI Top 50:  3-6

Record vs. RPI Top 100:  7-8

Good wins:  3 (SMU (11), Cincinnati (38), at Cincinnati (38))

Bad losses:  2 (at Memphis (149), at East Carolina (199)

4.  St. Mary's (27-5; 15-3 in WCC)
RPI:  35
BPI:  27
Road/neutral record:  9-3

Record vs. RPI Top 50:  0-1

Record vs. RPI Top 100:  6-2

Good wins:  0 (Gonzaga (61), at Gonzaga (61))

Bad losses:  2 (Pepperdine (128), at Pepperdine (128))

3.  St. Joseph's (24-7; 13-5 in Atlantic 10)

RPI:  31
BPI:  50
Road/neutral record:  13-3

Record vs. RPI Top 50:  2-4

Record vs. RPI Top 100:  5-6

Good wins:  2 (Dayton (20), Princeton (39))

Bad losses:  1 (Duquesne (146))

2.  St. Bonaventure (22-7; 14-4 in Atlantic 10)

RPI:  28
BPI:  72
Road/neutral record:  8-5

Record vs. RPI Top 50:  3-2

Record vs. RPI Top 100:  6-4

Good wins:  3 (at Dayton (20), St. Joseph's (31), at St. Joseph's (31))

Bad losses:  3 (at Siena (102), at Duquesne (146), at LaSalle (237))

1.  Dayton (25-6; 14-4 in Atlantic 10)
RPI:  20
BPI:  43
Road/neutral record:  10-3

Record vs. RPI Top 50:  4-3

Record vs. RPI Top 100:  9-4

Good wins:  4 (Iowa* (23), at St. Bonaventure (28), VCU (40), at Vanderbilt (47))

Bad losses:  2 (Rhode Island (106), at LaSalle (237))