Updated Big Ten Tournament Seeding Predictions and NCAA Tournament Resumes

Nothing too exciting or unexpected happened last night.  Michigan State blew out Rutgers behind Bryn Forbes's Big Ten record 11 3-pointers.  In the other game, Wisconsin beat Minnesota at the Barn.  This means that Rutgers has clinched the 14-seed in the Big Ten Tournament and Minnesota has clinched the 13-seed.

I'd like to throw out a couple of potential seeding scenarios for seeds 2-8 because I am mentally and psychosexually compelled to do so.  Right now, there are three teams with 5 losses (Maryland, Michigan State, and Wisconsin, three teams with 6 losses (Iowa, Ohio State, and Purdue), and one team with 7 losses (Michigan).  Based on what I can tell, the best seed Michigan can get is the 7-seed and the worst is the 8-seed.

If Michigan State beats Ohio State on Saturday, the Spartans will clinch the 2-seed regardless of whether Wisconsin and Maryland finish at 13-5.

If Maryland, Michigan State, and Wisconsin all tie for 2nd place at 13-5, the seeding would be:

2.  Michigan State (2-1 vs. other two teams)

3.  Wisconsin (2-2 vs. other two teams)

4.  Maryland (1-2 vs. other two teams)

There is a possibility that 6 teams could tie for 2nd place at 12-6.  For that to happen, Michigan State would have to lose to Ohio State on Saturday, Iowa would have to beat Michigan on Saturday, IU would have to beat Maryland on Sunday (assuming Maryland beats Illinois tonight), and Purdue would have to beat Wisconsin on Sunday.  If that happens, Iowa, Maryland, Michigan State, Ohio State, Purdue, and Wisconsin would all tie for 2nd place, and Michigan would get the 8-seed.  Here's how seeds 2-7 would shake out:

2.  Maryland (5-3 record vs. other five teams, 0-1 vs. IU, 1-1 vs. Michigan, 1-0 vs. Penn State, 2-0 vs. Northwestern, 1-0 vs. Nebraska, 1-0 vs. Illinois)

3.  Purdue (5-3 record vs. other five teams, 0-1 against IU, 1-1 against Michigan, 1-0 vs. Penn State, 1-0 vs. Northwestern, 2-0 vs. Nebraska, 0-1 vs. Illinois)

4.  Iowa (4-3 record vs. other five teams)

5.  Wisconsin (4-4 record vs. other five teams)

6.  Michigan State (3-5 record vs. other five teams)

7.  Ohio State (2-5 record vs. other five teams)

If all of the six-loss teams lose, that would mean there would be a four-way tie for 5th place between Iowa, Michigan, Ohio State, and Purdue at 11-7.  If that happens (regardless of whether Maryland loses to IU on Sunday), here would be the seeds:

5.  Ohio State (2-1 vs. other three teams)

6.  Iowa (3-2 vs. other three teams)

7.  Purdue (2-3 vs. other three teams, 0-1 vs. IU, 2-1 vs. MSU and Wisconsin, 3-2 vs. Maryland, MSU, and Wisconsin)

8.  Michigan (2-3 vs. other three teams, 0-1 vs. IU, 0-2 vs. MSU and Wisconsin, 1-3 vs. Maryland, MSU, and Wisconsin)

If all of the six-loss teams except Purdue lose, there would be a three-way tie for 6th place between Iowa, Michigan, and Ohio State.  If that happens (regardless of whether Maryland loses to IU on Sunday), here would be the seeds:

6.  Ohio State (2-0 vs. other two teams)

7.  Iowa (1-2 vs. other two teams, 0-2 vs. IU, 2-0 vs. MSU and 2-1 vs. Maryland and MSU)

8.  Michigan (1-2 vs. other two teams, 0-1 vs. IU, 0-1 vs. MSU and 1-2 vs. Maryland and MSU)

If all of the six-loss teams except Ohio State lose, there would be a three-way tie for 6th place between Iowa, Michigan, and Purdue.  If that happens (regardless of whether Maryland loses to IU on Sunday), here would be the seeds:

6.  Iowa (3-1 vs. other two teams)

7.  Michigan (2-2 vs. other two teams)

8.  Purdue (1-3 vs. other two teams)

Next games

Here are tonight's games (all times Eastern):

-Illinois at Maryland (7 p.m.; ESPN)

-Northwestern at Penn State (9 p.m.; ESPNU)

Current Standings

Here are the current standings, with the conference record, each team's remaining Big Ten games, and my predictions.  I will try to update these after every day or every couple days of games.

1.  Indiana (14-3):  Maryland (W)

2 (tie).  Michigan State (12-5):  Ohio State (W)

2 (tie).  Wisconsin (12-5):  at Purdue (L)

4.  Maryland (11-5):  Illinois (W); at Indiana (L)

5 (tie).  Iowa (11-6):  at Michigan (L)

5 (tie).  Ohio State (11-6):  at Michigan State (L)

5 (tie).  Purdue (11-6):  Wisconsin (W)

8.  Michigan (10-7):  Iowa (W)

9.  Penn State (6-10):  Northwestern (W); Illinois (W)

10.  Northwestern (6-10):  at Penn State (L); Nebraska (W)

11.  Nebraska (6-11):  at Northwestern (L)

12.  Illinois (5-11):  at Maryland (L); at Penn State (L)

13.  Minnesota (2-15):  at Rutgers (L)

14.  Rutgers (0-17):  Minnesota (W)

Projected Big Ten Tournament Seeding

Given my predictions and Big Ten tiebreaking rules, here is how the Big Ten Tournament seeds should fall into place (bold means a team has clinched that seed):

1.  Indiana (15-3)

2.  Michigan State (13-5)

3.  Purdue (12-6) (would have tiebreaker over Maryland and Wisconsin teams based on 3-1 record vs. other two teams, while Maryland has 2-2 record and Wisconsin has 1-3 record)

4.  Maryland (12-6)  

5.  Wisconsin (12-6)

6.  Ohio State (11-7) (would have tiebreaker over Iowa and Michigan based on 2-0 record vs. Iowa and Michigan, while Iowa and Michigan both have 1-2 records against other two teams)

7.  Iowa (11-7) (would have tiebreaker over Michigan based on better record vs. Michigan State)

8.  Michigan (11-7)

9.  Penn State (8-10)

10.  Northwestern (7-11)

11.  Nebraska (6-12)

12.  Illinois (5-13)

13.  Minnesota (2-16)

14.  Rutgers (1-17)

Big Ten Tournament Schedule

Here are the dates/times/TV schedule for the Big Ten Tournament (and a link to the bracket), which will be in Indianapolis.  All times are Eastern.

Wednesday March 9 – First Round

(12) vs. (13) Minnesota (4:30 p.m. ESPN2)

(11) vs. (14) Rutgers (7 p.m. BTN)

Thursday March 10 – Second Round

(8) vs. (9) (Noon, BTN)

(5) vs. (12)/(13) (2:30 p.m., BTN)

(7) vs. (10) (6:30 p.m., ESPN2)

(6) vs. (11)/(14) (9 p.m., ESPN2)

Friday March 11 – Quarterfinals

(1) Indiana vs. (8)/(9) (Noon, ESPN)

(4) vs. (5)/(12)/(13) (2:30 p.m., ESPN)

(2) vs. (7)/(10) (6:30 p.m., BTN)

(3) vs. (6)/(11)/(14) (9 p.m., BTN)

Saturday March 12 – Semifinals

(1)/(8)/(9) vs. (4)/(5)/(12)/(13) (1 p.m., CBS)

(2)/(7)/(10) vs. (3)/(6)/(11)/(14) (3:30 p.m., CBS)

Sunday March 13 – Finals

(1)/(4)/(5)/(8)/(9)/(12)/(13) vs. (2)/(3)/(6)/(7)/(10)/(11)/(14) (3 p.m., CBS)

NCAA Tournament Resumes for All 14 Big Ten Teams

Here is each Big Ten team's NCAA Tournament resume, including each team's RPI (based on ESPN's daily RPI), overall record against D-1 opponents, "good" wins (wins against RPI Top 50 teams or, if none, the team's best win), "bad" losses (losses against teams with an RPI of 101+ or, if none, the team's worst loss).  An * means the game was played on a neutral court, and for the "good" wins and "bad" losses, the team's current RPI is identified.  I have categorized the teams by "In," "Bubble," or "Out," which is my best guess, based on what I know right now, as to whether each team is a lock for the NCAA Tournament, is on the bubble, or is out.  I have also added a record vs. the RPI Top 50 and Top 100.

In

1.  Maryland

RPI:  10

Overall record:  22-6

Record vs. RPI Top 50:  4-4

Record vs. RPI Top 100:  8-5

Good wins:  4 (Purdue (18), Iowa (27), at Wisconsin (32), Princeton* (33))

Bad losses:  1 (at Minnesota (240))

2.  Michigan State

RPI:  16

Overall record:  25-5

Record vs. RPI Top 50:  6-4

Record vs. RPI Top 100:  10-4

Good wins:  6 (Kansas* (1), Maryland (10), Louisville (17), Indiana (22), Wisconsin (32), Providence* (41))

Bad losses:  1 (Nebraska (169))

3.  Purdue

RPI:  18

Overall record:  23-7

Record vs. RPI Top 50:  5-5

Record vs. RPI Top 100:  8-6

Good wins:  5 (Maryland (10), Michigan State (16), at Wisconsin (32), at Pittsburgh (47), Vanderbilt (49))

Bad losses:  1 (at Illinois (148))

4.  Indiana

RPI:  22

Overall record:  24-6

Record vs. RPI Top 50:  5-3

Record vs. RPI Top 100:  8-3

Good wins:  5 (Purdue (18), Iowa (27), at Iowa (27), Wisconsin (32), Notre Dame* (35))

Bad losses:  3 (at Penn State (104), UNLV* (135), Wake Forest* (137))

5.  Iowa

RPI:  27

Overall record:  20-9

Record vs. RPI Top 50:  5-7

Record vs. RPI Top 100:  7-8

Good wins:  5 (Michigan State (16), at Michigan State (16), Purdue (18), at Purdue (18), Wichita State* (45))

Bad losses:  1 (at Penn State (104))

6.  Wisconsin

RPI:  32

Overall record:  20-10

Record vs. RPI Top 50:  5-5

Record vs. RPI Top 100:  10-5

Good wins:  5 (at Maryland (10), Michigan State (16), Indiana (22), at Iowa (27), VCU* (43))

Bad losses:  5 (Marquette (106), Georgetown* (107), at Northwestern (120), Milwaukee (165), Western Illinois (255))

Bubble

7.  Michigan

RPI:  57

Overall record:  19-10

Record vs. RPI Top 50:  3-8

Record vs. RPI Top 100:  3-10

Good wins:  3 (Maryland (10), Purdue (18), Texas* (25))

Bad losses:  None (at Ohio State (73))

8.  Ohio State

RPI:  73

Overall record:  19-11

Record vs. RPI Top 50:  2-7

Record vs. RPI Top 100:  3-9

Good wins:  2 (Kentucky* (11), Iowa (27))

Bad losses:  2 (Louisiana Tech (114), Memphis* (155))

Out

9.  Penn State

RPI:  104

Overall record:  15-14

Record vs. RPI Top 50:  2-7

Record vs. RPI Top 100:  2-11

Good wins:  2 (Indiana (22), Iowa (27))

Bad losses:  3 (Duquesne* (163), at Nebraska (169), Radford (177))

10.  Northwestern

RPI:  120

Overall record:  18-11

Record vs. RPI Top 50:  1-7

Record vs. RPI Top 100:  2-10

Good wins:  1 (Wisconsin (32))

Bad losses:  1 (Penn State (104))

11.  Illinois

RPI:  148

Overall record:  13-16

Record vs. RPI Top 50:  1-9

Record vs. RPI Top 100:  3-13

Good wins:  1 (Purdue (18))

Bad losses:  3 (at Northwestern (120), North Florida* (156), Nebraska (169))

12.  Nebraska

RPI:  169

Overall record:  14-16

Record vs. RPI Top 50:  1-9

Record vs. RPI Top 100:  1-12

Good wins:  1 (at Michigan State (16))

Bad losses:  4 (Creighton (101), at Penn State (104), Northwestern (120), Samford (256))

13.  Minnesota

RPI:  240

Overall record:  8-21

Record vs. RPI Top 50:  1-8

Record vs. RPI Top 100:  1-12

Good wins:  1 (Maryland (10))

Bad losses:  9 (at Penn State (104), Northwestern (120), at Northwestern (120), Illinois (148), at Illinois (148), Oklahoma State* (157), Milwaukee (165), at Nebraska (169), South Dakota (192))

14.  Rutgers

RPI:  281

Overall record:  5-23

Record vs. RPI Top 50:  0-8

Record vs. RPI Top 100:  0-13

Good wins:  None (Farleigh Dickinson (224))

Bad losses:  11 (Creighton* (101), Penn State (104), Clemson* (119), at Northwestern (120), Wake Forest (137), Illinois (148), at Illinois (148), Nebraska (169), at Nebraska (169), at St. John's (229), at Minnesota (240))