Updated Big Ten Tournament Seeding Predictions and NCAA Tournament Resumes

Whew!  Despite being called for 8 more fouls than Iowa and doing their damnedest to give away the game, my beloved Hoosiers marched into Carver-Hawkeye Arena and clinched the outright Big Ten title (and 1-seed in the Big Ten Tournament) with a hard-fought 81-78 win over Iowa.

This is the second outright Big Ten title for the Hoosiers in the last four years.  Since Tom Crean arrived in Bloomington for the 2008-2009 season, no other coach has won two outright Big Ten titles.  For all the Tom Crean haters out there (who, admittedly, have been all but silenced over the last two months), you have to admit that he deserves Big Ten Coach of the Year.

The Hoosiers won their 22nd Big Ten title, tied for Purdue for the most in Big Ten history.  Of course, 13 of Purdue's 22 titles were before 1941, and 19 of IU's titles have been since 1950.  Also, Purdue is just a horrible place.

Yogi Ferrell is now the first Hoosier to win two outright Big Ten titles since Steve Bouchie, Tony Brown, Chuck Franz, Ted Kitchel, Jim Thomas, and Randy Wittman did it 1981 and 1983.  (Matt Nover technically won two, in 1989 and 1993, but was a redshirt freshman on the 1989 team.)

Iowa, meanwhile, continues its slide, having lost five of its last six games.  Four weeks ago, they were ranked #4 in the AP poll and had their eye on a 1-seed in the NCAA Tournament.  Now, with a loss to Michigan this weekend, the Hawkeyes would likely drop out of the poll and sit somewhere between a 5- and 7-seed in the NCAA Tournament, depending on how they do in the Big Ten Tournament.  FYI, based on my predictions below, I now have Iowa at the 7-seed in the Big Ten Tournament.

Next games

Here are tonight's games (all times Eastern):

-Michigan State at Rutgers (7 p.m.; BTN)

-Wisconsin at Minnesota (9 p.m.; BTN)

Current Standings

Here are the current standings, with the conference record, each team's remaining Big Ten games, and my predictions.  I will try to update these after every day or every couple days of games.

1.  Indiana (14-3):  Maryland (W)

2 (tie).  Maryland (11-5):  Illinois (W); at Indiana (L)

2 (tie).  Michigan State (11-5):  at Rutgers (W); Ohio State (W)

2 (tie).  Wisconsin (11-5):  at Minnesota (W); at Purdue (L)

5 (tie).  Iowa (11-6):  at Michigan (L)

5 (tie).  Ohio State (11-6):  at Michigan State (L)

5 (tie).  Purdue (11-6):   at Nebraska (W); Wisconsin (W)

8.  Michigan (10-7):  Iowa (W)

9.  Penn State (6-10):  Northwestern (W); Illinois (W)

10.  Northwestern (6-10):  at Penn State (L); Nebraska (W)

11.  Nebraska (6-11):  at Northwestern (L)

12.  Illinois (5-11):  at Maryland (L); at Penn State (L)

13.  Minnesota (2-14):  Wisconsin (L); at Rutgers (L)

14.  Rutgers (0-16):  Michigan State (L); Minnesota (W)

Projected Big Ten Tournament Seeding

Given my predictions and Big Ten tiebreaking rules, here is how the Big Ten Tournament seeds should fall into place (bold means a team has clinched that seed):

1.  Indiana (15-3)

2.  Michigan State (13-5)

3.  Purdue (12-6) (would have tiebreaker over Maryland and Wisconsin teams based on 3-1 record vs. other two teams, while Maryland has 2-2 record and Wisconsin has 1-3 record)

4.  Maryland (12-6)  

5.  Wisconsin (12-6)

6.  Ohio State (11-7) (would have tiebreaker over Iowa and Michigan based on 2-0 record vs. Iowa and Michigan, while Iowa and Michigan both have 1-2 records against other two teams)

7.  Iowa (11-7) (would have tiebreaker over Michigan based on better record vs. Michigan State)

8.  Michigan (11-7)

9.  Penn State (8-10)

10.  Northwestern (7-11)

11.  Nebraska (6-12)

12.  Illinois (5-13)

13.  Minnesota (2-16)

14.  Rutgers (1-17)

Big Ten Tournament Schedule

Here are the dates/times/TV schedule for the Big Ten Tournament (and a link to the bracket), which will be in Indianapolis.  All times are Eastern.

Wednesday March 9 – First Round

(12) vs. (13) (4:30 p.m. ESPN2)

(11) vs. (14) (7 p.m. BTN)

Thursday March 10 – Second Round

(8) vs. (9) (Noon, BTN)

(5) vs. (12)/(13) (2:30 p.m., BTN)

(7) vs. (10) (6:30 p.m., ESPN2)

(6) vs. (11)/(14) (9 p.m., ESPN2)

Friday March 11 – Quarterfinals

(1) Indiana vs. (8)/(9) (Noon, ESPN)

(4) vs. (5)/(12)/(13) (2:30 p.m., ESPN)

(2) vs. (7)/(10) (6:30 p.m., BTN)

(3) vs. (6)/(11)/(14) (9 p.m., BTN)

Saturday March 12 – Semifinals

(1)/(8)/(9) vs. (4)/(5)/(12)/(13) (1 p.m., CBS)

(2)/(7)/(10) vs. (3)/(6)/(11)/(14) (3:30 p.m., CBS)

Sunday March 13 – Finals

(1)/(4)/(5)/(8)/(9)/(12)/(13) vs. (2)/(3)/(6)/(7)/(10)/(11)/(14) (3 p.m., CBS)

NCAA Tournament Resumes for All 14 Big Ten Teams

Here is each Big Ten team's NCAA Tournament resume, including each team's RPI (based on ESPN's daily RPI), overall record against D-1 opponents, "good" wins (wins against RPI Top 50 teams or, if none, the team's best win), "bad" losses (losses against teams with an RPI of 101+ or, if none, the team's worst loss).  An * means the game was played on a neutral court, and for the "good" wins and "bad" losses, the team's current RPI is identified.  I have categorized the teams by "In," "Bubble," or "Out," which is my best guess, based on what I know right now, as to whether each team is a lock for the NCAA Tournament, is on the bubble, or is out.  I have also added a record vs. the RPI Top 50 and Top 100.

In

1.  Maryland

RPI:  10

Overall record:  22-6

Record vs. RPI Top 50:  4-4

Record vs. RPI Top 100:  8-5

Good wins:  4 (Purdue (18), Iowa (28), at Wisconsin (32), Princeton* (34))

Bad losses:  1 (at Minnesota (238))

2.  Michigan State

RPI:  13

Overall record:  24-5

Record vs. RPI Top 50:  6-4

Record vs. RPI Top 100:  10-4

Good wins:  6 (Kansas* (1), Maryland (10), Louisville (17), Indiana (22), Wisconsin (32), Providence* (46))

Bad losses:  1 (Nebraska (167))

3.  Purdue

RPI:  18

Overall record:  23-7

Record vs. RPI Top 50:  5-4

Record vs. RPI Top 100:  8-6

Good wins:  5 (Maryland (10), Michigan State (13), at Wisconsin (32), at Pittsburgh (37), Vanderbilt (48))

Bad losses:  1 (at Illinois (146))

4.  Indiana

RPI:  22

Overall record:  24-6

Record vs. RPI Top 50:  5-3

Record vs. RPI Top 100:  9-3

Good wins:  5 (Purdue (18), Iowa (28), at Iowa (28), Notre Dame* (31), Wisconsin (32))

Bad losses:  3 (at Penn State (105), UNLV* (135), Wake Forest* (136))

5.  Iowa

RPI:  28

Overall record:  20-9

Record vs. RPI Top 50:  5-7

Record vs. RPI Top 100:  7-8

Good wins:  5 (Michigan State (13), at Michigan State (13), Purdue (18), at Purdue (18), Wichita State* (43))

Bad losses:  1 (at Penn State (105))

6.  Wisconsin

RPI:  32

Overall record:  19-10

Record vs. RPI Top 50:  5-5

Record vs. RPI Top 100:  10-5

Good wins:  5 (at Maryland (10), Michigan State (13), Indiana (22), at Iowa (28), VCU* (47))

Bad losses:  5 (Marquette (104), Georgetown* (108), at Northwestern (119), Milwaukee (165), Western Illinois (255))

Bubble

7.  Michigan

RPI:  58

Overall record:  19-10

Record vs. RPI Top 50:  3-8

Record vs. RPI Top 100:  3-10

Good wins:  3 (Maryland (10), Purdue (18), Texas* (25))

Bad losses:  None (at Ohio State (73))

8.  Ohio State

RPI:  73

Overall record:  19-11

Record vs. RPI Top 50:  2-7

Record vs. RPI Top 100:  3-9

Good wins:  2 (Kentucky* (11), Iowa (28))

Bad losses:  2 (Louisiana Tech (114), Memphis* (156))

Out

9.  Penn State

RPI:  105

Overall record:  15-14

Record vs. RPI Top 50:  2-7

Record vs. RPI Top 100:  2-11

Good wins:  2 (Indiana (22), Iowa (28))

Bad losses:  3 (Duquesne* (155), at Nebraska (167), Radford (179))

10.  Northwestern

RPI:  117

Overall record:  18-11

Record vs. RPI Top 50:  1-7

Record vs. RPI Top 100:  1-10

Good wins:  1 (Wisconsin (32))

Bad losses:  1 (Penn State (105))

11.  Illinois

RPI:  146

Overall record:  13-16

Record vs. RPI Top 50:  1-9

Record vs. RPI Top 100:  3-13

Good wins:  1 (Purdue (18))

Bad losses:  3 (at Northwestern (119), North Florida* (157), Nebraska (167))

12.  Nebraska

RPI:  167

Overall record:  14-16

Record vs. RPI Top 50:  1-9

Record vs. RPI Top 100:  1-13

Good wins:  1 (at Michigan State (13))

Bad losses:  3 (at Penn State (105), Northwestern (119), Samford (256))

13.  Minnesota

RPI:  238

Overall record:  8-20

Record vs. RPI Top 50:  1-7

Record vs. RPI Top 100:  1-11

Good wins:  1 (Maryland (10))

Bad losses:  9 (at Penn State (105), Northwestern (119), at Northwestern (119), Illinois (146), at Illinois (146), Oklahoma State* (158), Milwaukee (165), at Nebraska (167), South Dakota (192))

14.  Rutgers

RPI:  287

Overall record:  5-23

Record vs. RPI Top 50:  0-7

Record vs. RPI Top 100:  0-13

Good wins:  None (Farleigh Dickinson (230))

Bad losses:  10 (Penn State (105), Clemson* (116), at Northwestern (119), Wake Forest (136), Illinois (146), at Illinois (146), Nebraska (167), at Nebraska (167), at St. John's (225), at Minnesota (238))