Updated Big Ten Tournament Seeding Predictions and NCAA Tournament Resumes

This is it, folks.  This will be the last update until the Big Ten Tournament seeding is set.  Last night, Maryland beat Illinois, to bring the Terps into a three-way tie for second place with Michigan State and Wisconsin.  Meanwhile, Northwestern did something neither Indiana nor Iowa could do:  beat Penn State in Happy Valley.  With a win over Nebraska Sunday, the Wildcats will clinch the 9-seed in the Big Ten Tournament and their first 20-win season since 2011 and their first 20-win regular season ever.

There is still a lot on the line with this weekend's games.  As we discussed yesterday, the seeding for 2-8 is still very much in flux.  Tomorrow's game between Minnesota and Rutgers may seem like the Battle of Who Could Care Less, but you better believe Rutgers wants to win this one, so that they are not the first team since the 1999-2000 Northwestern Wildcats to go winless in the Big Ten.

On Saturday, the matchup between Ohio State and Michigan State in East Lansing is huge, not just for seeding purposes, but for Ohio State's chances of making the NCAA Tournament (which, right now, are slim).  The Buckeyes can do no better than the 5-seed in the Big Ten Tournament with a win and no worse than the 7-seed with a loss.  A win for the Spartans clinches the 2-seed in the Big Ten Tournament, and a loss could drop them to as low as the 6-seed.  The Michigan/Iowa game in Ann Arbor -– who is a whore, mind you –- is big for both teams.  Iowa desperately needs a win to end their recent slide, and Michigan needs another Top 50 win to bolster its NCAA Tournament resume.  Iowa would get the 4- or 5-seed in the Big Ten Tournament with a win and the 6- or 7-seed with a loss.  Michigan get the 7-seed with win combined with a Wisconsin win and a Michigan State loss.  Otherwise, the Wolverines are guaranteed the 8-seed.

On Sunday, Maryland's visit to Bloomington is important for IU's NCAA Tournament seeding (and, of course, it's Senior Day for the Hoosiers).  For Maryland, winning or losing could potentially mean the difference between a 2-seed and a 4-seed in the Big Ten Tournament.  The last game of the Big Ten's regular season pits Wisconsin against Purdue in that post-apocalyptic hellhole the locals call West Lafayette.  Depending on how other games go, a win for the Badgers could mean the 2-seed in the Big Ten Tournament, and a loss could mean as low as a 6-seed.  Purdue, meanwhile, could end up anywhere between the 3-seed and the 8-seed.

With all of the teams in the top eight positions of the standings playing another team in the top eight, there could be a lot of movement seeding-wise (other than IU, which has clinched the 1-seed).  Here are the seeding scenarios for 2-8 based on the different combinations of wins and losses this weekend.  Insanely enough, no two combinations of wins and losses will result in the same seeding.

If MSU and Wisconsin win, and Maryland and Iowa lose

2.  Michigan State (13-5)

3.  Wisconsin (13-5)

4.  Maryland (12-6)

5.  Ohio State (11-7)

6.  Iowa (11-7)

7.  Purdue (11-7)

8.  Michigan (11-7)

If MSU wins, and Maryland, Wisconsin, and Iowa lose

2.  Michigan State (13-5)

3.  Purdue (12-6)

4.  Maryland (12-6)  

5.  Wisconsin (12-6)

6.  Ohio State (11-7)

7.  Iowa (11-7)

8.  Michigan (11-7)

If Wisconsin wins, and Maryland, MSU, and Iowa lose

2.  Wisconsin (13-5)

3.  Michigan State (12-6)

4.  Maryland (12-6)

5.  Ohio State (12-6)

6.  Iowa (11-7)

7.  Michigan (11-7)

8.  Purdue (11-7)

If Maryland and Wisconsin win, and MSU and Iowa lose

2.  Maryland (13-5)

3.  Wisconsin (13-5)

4.  Michigan State (12-6)

5.  Ohio State (12-6)

6.  Iowa (11-7)

7.  Michigan (11-7)

8.  Purdue (11-7)

If Iowa, MSU, and Wisconsin win, and Maryland loses

2.  Michigan State (13-5)

3.  Wisconsin (13-5)

4.  Maryland (12-6)

5.  Iowa (12-6)

6.  Purdue (11-7)

7.  Ohio State (11-7)

8.  Michigan (10-8)

If Iowa and MSU win, and Maryland and Wisconsin lose

2.  Michigan State (13-5)

3.  Maryland (12-6)

4.  Iowa (12-6)

5.  Purdue (12-6)

6.  Wisconsin (12-6)

7.  Ohio State (11-7)

8.  Michigan (10-8)

If Iowa and Wisconsin win, and Maryland and MSU lose

2.  Wisconsin (13-5)

3.  Maryland (12-6)

4.  Iowa (12-6)

5.  Michigan State (12-6)

6.  Ohio State (12-6)

7.  Purdue (11-7)

8.  Michigan (10-8)

If Iowa, Maryland, and Wisconsin win, and MSU loses

2.  Maryland (13-5)

3.  Wisconsin (13-5)

4.  Iowa (12-6)

5.  Ohio State (12-6)

6.  Michigan State (12-6)

7.  Purdue (11-7)

8.  Michigan (10-8)

If Iowa and Maryland win, and MSU and Wisconsin lose (meaning there would a 6-way tie for 2nd place at 12-6)

2.  Maryland (12-6)

3.  Purdue (12-6)

4.  Iowa (12-6)

5.  Wisconsin (12-6)

6.  Michigan State (12-6)

7.  Ohio State (12-6)

8.  Michigan (10-8)

Next games

Here are this weekend's games (all times Eastern):

Saturday

-Ohio State at Michigan State (12 p.m.; ESPN)

-Minnesota at Rutgers (1 p.m.; BTN)

-Iowa at Michigan (8 p.m.; BTN)

Sunday

-Illinois at Penn State (12 p.m.; BTN)

-Nebraska at Northwestern (2 p.m.; BTN)

-Maryland at Indiana (4:30 p.m.; CBS)

-Wisconsin at Purdue (7:30 p.m.; BTN)

Current Standings

Here are the current standings, with the conference record, each team's remaining Big Ten games, and my predictions.  I will try to update these after every day or every couple days of games.

1.  Indiana (14-3):  Maryland (W)

2 (tie).  Michigan State (12-5):  Ohio State (W)

2 (tie).  Wisconsin (12-5):  at Purdue (L)

2 (tie).  Maryland (12-5):  at Indiana (L)

5 (tie).  Iowa (11-6):  at Michigan (L)

5 (tie).  Ohio State (11-6):  at Michigan State (L)

5 (tie).  Purdue (11-6):  Wisconsin (W)

8.  Michigan (10-7):  Iowa (W)

9.  Northwestern (7-10):  Nebraska (W)

10 (tie).  Penn State (6-11):  Illinois (W)

11 (tie).  Nebraska (6-11):  at Northwestern (L)

12.  Illinois (5-12):  at Penn State (L)

13.  Minnesota (2-15):  at Rutgers (L)

14.  Rutgers (0-17):  Minnesota (W)

Projected Big Ten Tournament Seeding

Given my predictions and Big Ten tiebreaking rules, here is how the Big Ten Tournament seeds should fall into place (bold means a team has clinched that seed):

1.  Indiana (15-3)

2.  Michigan State (13-5)

3.  Purdue (12-6) (would have tiebreaker over Maryland and Wisconsin teams based on 3-1 record vs. other two teams, while Maryland has 2-2 record and Wisconsin has 1-3 record)

4.  Maryland (12-6)  

5.  Wisconsin (12-6)

6.  Ohio State (11-7) (would have tiebreaker over Iowa and Michigan based on 2-0 record vs. Iowa and Michigan, while Iowa and Michigan both have 1-2 records against other two teams)

7.  Iowa (11-7) (would have tiebreaker over Michigan based on better record vs. Michigan State)

8.  Michigan (11-7)

9.  Northwestern (8-10)

9.  Penn State (7-11)

11.  Nebraska (6-12)

12.  Illinois (5-13)

13.  Minnesota (2-16)

14.  Rutgers (1-17)

Big Ten Tournament Schedule

Here are the dates/times/TV schedule for the Big Ten Tournament (and a link to the bracket), which will be in Indianapolis.  All times are Eastern.

Wednesday March 9 – First Round

(12) vs. (13) Minnesota (4:30 p.m. ESPN2)

(11) vs. (14) Rutgers (7 p.m. BTN)

Thursday March 10 – Second Round

(8) vs. (9) (Noon, BTN)

(5) vs. (12)/(13) (2:30 p.m., BTN)

(7) vs. (10) (6:30 p.m., ESPN2)

(6) vs. (11)/(14) (9 p.m., ESPN2)

Friday March 11 – Quarterfinals

(1) Indiana vs. (8)/(9) (Noon, ESPN)

(4) vs. (5)/(12)/(13) (2:30 p.m., ESPN)

(2) vs. (7)/(10) (6:30 p.m., BTN)

(3) vs. (6)/(11)/(14) (9 p.m., BTN)

Saturday March 12 – Semifinals

(1)/(8)/(9) vs. (4)/(5)/(12)/(13) (1 p.m., CBS)

(2)/(7)/(10) vs. (3)/(6)/(11)/(14) (3:30 p.m., CBS)

Sunday March 13 – Finals

(1)/(4)/(5)/(8)/(9)/(12)/(13) vs. (2)/(3)/(6)/(7)/(10)/(11)/(14) (3 p.m., CBS)

NCAA Tournament Resumes for All 14 Big Ten Teams

Here is each Big Ten team's NCAA Tournament resume, including each team's RPI (based on ESPN's daily RPI), overall record against D-1 opponents, "good" wins (wins against RPI Top 50 teams or, if none, the team's best win), "bad" losses (losses against teams with an RPI of 101+ or, if none, the team's worst loss).  An * means the game was played on a neutral court, and for the "good" wins and "bad" losses, the team's current RPI is identified.  I have categorized the teams by "In," "Bubble," or "Out," which is my best guess, based on what I know right now, as to whether each team is a lock for the NCAA Tournament, is on the bubble, or is out.  I have also added a record vs. the RPI Top 50 and Top 100.

In

1.  Maryland

RPI:  11

Overall record:  23-6

Record vs. RPI Top 50:  5-4

Record vs. RPI Top 100:  8-5

Good wins:  5 (Purdue (18), Iowa (28), at Wisconsin (31), Princeton* (33), Connecticut* (50))

Bad losses:  1 (at Minnesota (242))

2.  Michigan State

RPI:  15

Overall record:  25-5

Record vs. RPI Top 50:  6-4

Record vs. RPI Top 100:  10-4

Good wins:  6 (Kansas* (1), Maryland (11), Louisville (17), Indiana (22), Wisconsin (31), Providence* (39))

Bad losses:  1 (Nebraska (170))

3.  Purdue

RPI:  18

Overall record:  23-7

Record vs. RPI Top 50:  5-5

Record vs. RPI Top 100:  8-6

Good wins:  5 (Maryland (11), Michigan State (15), at Wisconsin (31), at Pittsburgh (44), Vanderbilt (47))

Bad losses:  1 (at Illinois (142))

4.  Indiana

RPI:  22

Overall record:  24-6

Record vs. RPI Top 50:  5-3

Record vs. RPI Top 100:  8-3

Good wins:  5 (Purdue (18), Iowa (28), at Iowa (28), Wisconsin (31), Notre Dame* (35))

Bad losses:  3 (at Penn State (116), UNLV* (135), Wake Forest* (137))

5.  Iowa

RPI:  28

Overall record:  20-9

Record vs. RPI Top 50:  5-7

Record vs. RPI Top 100:  7-8

Good wins:  5 (Michigan State (15), at Michigan State (15), Purdue (18), at Purdue (18), Wichita State* (43))

Bad losses:  1 (at Penn State (116))

6.  Wisconsin

RPI:  31

Overall record:  20-10

Record vs. RPI Top 50:  5-5

Record vs. RPI Top 100:  11-5

Good wins:  5 (at Maryland (11), Michigan State (15), Indiana (22), at Iowa (28), VCU* (41))

Bad losses:  5 (Marquette (104), Georgetown* (107), at Northwestern (111), Milwaukee (168), Western Illinois (253))

Bubble

7.  Michigan

RPI:  58

Overall record:  19-10

Record vs. RPI Top 50:  3-9

Record vs. RPI Top 100:  3-10

Good wins:  3 (Maryland (11), Purdue (18), Texas* (25))

Bad losses:  None (at Ohio State (76))

8.  Ohio State

RPI:  76

Overall record:  19-11

Record vs. RPI Top 50:  2-8

Record vs. RPI Top 100:  3-9

Good wins:  2 (Kentucky* (11), Iowa (28))

Bad losses:  2 (Louisiana Tech (109), Memphis* (154))

Out

9.  Northwestern

RPI:  111

Overall record:  19-11

Record vs. RPI Top 50:  1-7

Record vs. RPI Top 100:  2-10

Good wins:  1 (Wisconsin (31))

Bad losses:  1 (Penn State (116))

10.  Penn State

RPI:  116

Overall record:  15-15

Record vs. RPI Top 50:  2-7

Record vs. RPI Top 100:  2-11

Good wins:  2 (Indiana (22), Iowa (28))

Bad losses:  4 (Northwestern (111), Duquesne* (165), at Nebraska (170), Radford (187))

11.  Illinois

RPI:  142

Overall record:  13-17

Record vs. RPI Top 50:  1-10

Record vs. RPI Top 100:  3-14

Good wins:  1 (Purdue (18))

Bad losses:  3 (at Northwestern (111), North Florida* (166), Nebraska (170))

12.  Nebraska

RPI:  169

Overall record:  14-16

Record vs. RPI Top 50:  1-10

Record vs. RPI Top 100:  1-12

Good wins:  1 (at Michigan State (15))

Bad losses:  4 (at Creighton (102), Northwestern (111), at Penn State (116), Samford (255))

13.  Minnesota

RPI:  242

Overall record:  8-21

Record vs. RPI Top 50:  1-8

Record vs. RPI Top 100:  1-12

Good wins:  1 (Maryland (11))

Bad losses:  9 (Northwestern (111), at Northwestern (111), at Penn State (116), Illinois (142), at Illinois (142), Oklahoma State* (155), Milwaukee (168), at Nebraska (170), South Dakota (191))

14.  Rutgers

RPI:  281

Overall record:  5-24

Record vs. RPI Top 50:  0-8

Record vs. RPI Top 100:  0-13

Good wins:  None (Farleigh Dickinson (227))

Bad losses:  11 (Creighton* (102), at Northwestern (111), Penn State (116), Clemson* (121), Wake Forest (137), Illinois (142), at Illinois (142), Nebraska (170), at Nebraska (170), at St. John's (232), at Minnesota (242))