Updated Championship Week Predictions

Yesterday, another two 1-seeds lost, bringing the total number of 1-seeds that have lost thus far to 14.  The insanity should continue today, with over 14 continuous hours of college basketball, from the tip-off of the America East final at 11 a.m. Eastern to the final horn in the Big West final, which tips at 11:30 p.m. Eastern.  Fourteen bids are up for grabs, and another five leagues have their semifinals.  

Below are the highlights from yesterday.  Note that, for my list of bubble teams that won and lost yesterday, I consider the "bubble" to be a little more expansive than others might, so I included some teams that are relatively safe to get into the NCAA Tournament ("high bubble" teams), some teams that need to win a few games to make the Big Dance ("low bubble" teams), as well as mid-major 1-seeds that I think might still have a shot at getting an at-large bid if they don't win their conference tournaments.  Some teams that fit into my definition of the bubble may play themselves off the bubble with a win (or two or three).

• In the quarterfinals of the Big Ten Tournament, my beloved 1-seeded Hoosiers played the role of benevolent benefactor by allowing 8-seed Michigan to beat them on a last-second 3, in order to give the Wolverines a chance of making the NCAA Tournament.  5-seed Purdue ended 12-seed Illinois's attempted Cinderella run with an 89-58 drubbing.  2-seed Michigan State killed 7-seed Ohio State, ending the Buckeyes' dreams of an NCAA Tournament bid.  In the final game of the night, 3-seed Maryland looked good as they beat 11-seed Nebraska, 97-86.
• In the ACC semis, 1-seed North Carolina manhandled 4-seed Notre Dame, 78-47.  The Tarheels are, of course, a lock for the NCAA Tournament, and they will be going to their 47th NCAA Tournament and 6th in a row.  In the second semifinal, 2-seed Virginia beat 3-seed Miami, 73-68.  The Cavaliers are also a lock for the NCAA Tournament.  They'll be playing in their 20th NCAA Tournament and 3rd in a row.  Both UNC and Virginia are likely 1-seeds in the NCAA Tournament.
• In the Big 12 semis, 1-seed Kansas held off 5-seed Baylor, 70-66.  The Jayhawks are a lock for the NCAA Tournament, and they'll be playing in their 45th tourney and 27th in a row.  In the other semi, 2-seed West Virginia hit a free throw to go up 2 with 1.8 seconds left, and then 3-seed Oklahoma inbounded the ball to their star Buddy Hield, who hit a half-court shot that would have been the game winner, but it was still in hit hands when the clock hit zero, so the officials waved it off after reviewing the replay.  The Mountaineers are also a lock for the tournament.  They will be playing in their 27th NCAA Tournament and second in a row.
• In the Big East semis, top seed Villanova beat 4-seed Providence, 76-68.  The Wildcats are a lock for the Big Dance.  They will be playing in their 36th NCAA Tournament and 4th in a row.  In the other semi, 3-seed Seton Hall upset 2-seed Xavier, 87-83, likely solidifying an invitation to the Big Dance for the Pirates.  They will be playing in their 10th NCAA Tournament and first since 2006.
• In the Big Sky semis, 1-seed Weber State and 5-seed North Dakota went to overtime before Weber State took care of business and pulled out an 83-78 win.  In the other game, 2-seed Montana beat 3-seed Idaho.  The Wildcats will be playing for their 16th NCAA Tournament appearance and first since 2014.  The Grizzlies will be playing for their 11th NCAA Tournament and first since 2013.
• In the Big West semis, top seeded Hawaii beat 4-seed UC Santa Barbara, 88-76, while 3-seed Long Beach State upended 2-seed UC Irvine.  The Rainbow Warriors will be going for their 5th NCAA Tournament bid and first since 2002.  The 49ers will be going for their 10th NCAA Tournament and first since 2012.
• In the Conference USA semis, 5-seed Old Dominion beat 8-seed Western Kentucky, 89-77, and 2-seed Middle Tennessee State beat 3-seed Marshall, 99-90.  The Monarchs will be playing for their 12th NCAA Tournament berth and first since 2011. The Blue Raiders will be playing for their 8th NCAA Tournament berth and first since 2013.
• In the miggity miggity miggity miggity miggity miggity MAC semis, top seed Akron ended 12-seed Bowling Green's Cinderella dreams with an 80-66 win, and 3-seed Buffalo beat 2-seed Ohio.  The Zips will be playing for their 5th NCAA Tournament berth and first since 2013. The Bulls will be playing for their 2nd NCAA Tournament after making the Big Dance for the first time last year.
• In the MEAC semis, 1-seed Hampton topped 5-seed Savannah State, 89-55, and 3-seed South Carolina State edged 2-seed Norfolk State, 67-65.  The Pirates will be playing for their 6th NCAA Tournament bid and second in a row (and, of course, they were the fourth15-seed to beat a 2-seed, back in 2001 when they upset Iowa State in the first round).  The Bulldogs will be playing for their 6th NCAA Tournament berth and first since 2003.
• In the Mountain West semis, top seeded San Diego State beat 5-seed Nevada, while 2-seed Fresno State downed 6-seed Colorado State.  The Aztecs are playing for their 12th NCAA Tournament and 7th in a row, although they may get an at-large bid even if they lose.  The Bulldogs will be playing for their 6th NCAA Tournament and first since 2001.
• In the Pac-12 semis, 4-seed Arizona overcame a 7-point deficit with 27 seconds left in regulation to force overtime with 1-seed Oregon, but the Ducks did what they needed to do in OT, winning 95-89.  The Ducks are a lock for the Big Dance.  They will be playing in their 14th NCAA Tournament and 4th in a row.  In the other semi, 2-seed Utah beat 3-seed Cal 82-78.  The Utes are also a lock for the tournament, and will be playing in their 29th NCAA Tournament and second in a row.
• In the Southland semis, top seed Stephen F. Austin just dumped on 4-seed Houston Baptist, 104-68, while 2-seed Texas A&M-CC hit a 3 with 7 seconds left to beat 3-seed Sam Houston State, 79-76.  The Lumberjacks will be playing for their 4th NCAA Tournament bid and 3rd in a row, while the Islanders will be playing for their 2nd NCAA Tournament bid and first since 2007.
• In the SWAC semis, 4-seed Southern upset 1-seed Texas Southern, while 3-seed Jackson State took down 7-seed Mississippi Valley State.  The Jaguars will be playing for their 9th NCAA Tournament appearance and first since 2013, when they nearly became the first 16-seed to beat a 1-seed, losing to Gonzaga 62-58.  The Tigers will be playing for their 4th NCAA Tournament appearance and first since 2007.
• In the wiggity wiggity wiggity wiggity wiggity wiggity WAC semis, 1-seed New Mexico State beat 5-seed UMKC 78-64, and 2-seed Cal State Bakersfield annihilated 3-seed Seattle, 72-47.  The Aggies are playing for their 23rd NCAA Tournament berth and 5th in a row.  The Roadrunners will be playing for their first NCAA Tournament bid since becoming a D-1 member in 2007, after being a D-II power for many years.
• The most exciting game of the day (and of Championship Week thus far) was in the AAC quarterfinals, as two bubble teams -- 4-seed Cincinnati and 5-seed UConn -- went to four overtimes before the Huskies pulled away for a 104-97 win.  In the third overtime, Cincinnati's Kevin Johnson hit a 3 with 0.8 seconds left to give the Bearcats a 3-point lead, only to see UConn's Jalen Adams hit a three-quarter court shot to force a fourth OT.  As you may recall, UConn was on the losing end of that epic 2009 Big East Tournament quarterfinal game with Syracuse that went to six overtimes, and as you may not recall, Cincinnati was part of the longest game in Division 1 history -- a seven-overtime win over Bradley in December 1981.  While top seed Temple won, 2-seed Houston fell to 10-seed Tulane, 72-69, and 3-seed Tulsa got throttled by 6-seed Memphis, 89-67, likely ending any NCAA Tournament hopes for the Cougars or the Golden Hurricane.
• In the Atlantic 10 quarterfinals, 6-seed Davidson beat 3-seed St. Bonaventure 90-86 in overtime, which may have bumped the Bonnies from the NCAA Tournament.
• The SEC continues to prove that it is by far the worst of the major conferences, as 6-seed Georgia upset 3-seed South Carolina in the quarterfinals, likely pushing the Gamecocks out of the NCAA Tournament.  The SEC may only get two teams into the Big Dance this year.
• Bubble teams that won yesterday:  Akron, Connecticut, Davidson, Dayton, Georgia, LSU, Michigan, San Diego State, Seton Hall, St. Joseph's, Temple, VCU
• Bubble teams that lost yesterday:  Alabama, Cincinnati, Florida, George Washington, Houston, Ohio State, Providence, St. Bonaventure, South Carolina, Tulsa

Here are the tournaments with games today, bids up for grab today, who has already clinched an automatic berth, and my predictions for the remaining conference tournaments.

Tournaments with games today
-AAC
-ACC
-America East
-Atlantic 10
-Big 12
-Big East
-Big Sky
-Big Ten
-Big West
-Conference USA
-MAC
-MEAC
-Mountain West
-Pac-12
-SEC
-Southland
-Sun Belt
-SWAC
-WAC

Bids up for grabs today (all times Eastern)

-America East:  (3) Vermont at (1) Stony Brook (11 a.m.; ESPN2)
-MEAC:  (1) Hampton vs. (3) South Carolina State (1:00 p.m.; ESPN2)
-Conference USA:  (2) Middle Tennessee State vs. (5) Old Dominion (2:30 p.m.; Fox Sports 1)
-Big East:  (1) Villanova vs. (3) Seton Hall (5:30 p.m.; Fox)
-Big 12:  (1) Kansas vs. (2) West Virginia (6 p.m.; ESPN)
-Mountain West:  (1) San Diego State vs. (2) Fresno State (6 p.m.; CBS)
-SWAC:  (3) Jackson State vs. (4) Southern (6:30 p.m.; ESPNU)
-MAC:  (1) Akron vs. (3) Buffalo (7:30 p.m.; ESPN2)
-Big Sky:  (1) Weber State vs. (2) Montana (8:45 p.m.; ESPNU)
-ACC:  (1) North Carolina vs. (2) Virginia (9 p.m.; ESPN)
-Southland:  (1) Stephen F. Austin vs. (2) Texas A&M-CC (9:30 p.m.; ESPN2)
-Pac-12:  (1) Oregon vs. (2) Utah (11 p.m.; Fox Sports 1)
-WAC:  (1) New Mexico State vs. (2) Cal State Bakersfield (11 p.m.; ESPNU)
-Big West:  (1) Hawaii vs. (3) Long Beach State (11:30 p.m.; ESPN2)

Already clinched automatic berths (in parentheses is the NCAA tournament appearances, including the bid just clinched)

-Atlantic Sun:  Florida Gulf Coast (2)
-Colonial: UNC-Wilmington (5)
-Big South:  UNC-Asheville (4)
-Horizon:  Green Bay (5)
-Ivy League:  Yale (4)
-MAAC:  Iona (11)
-Missouri Valley:  Northern Iowa (8)
-NEC:  Fairleigh Dickinson (5)
-OVC:  Austin Peay (7)
-Patriot League:  Holy Cross (13)
-SoCon:  Chattanooga (11)
-Summit:  South Dakota State (3)
-WCC:  Gonzaga (19)

Remaining Tournaments (all times are Eastern)

AAC (March 10-13; Orlando)

3/12 – Semifinals

3 p.m. (ESPN2) (1) Temple vs. (5) Connecticut.  Predicted winner:  Temple

5 p.m. (ESPN2) (10) Tulane vs. (6) Memphis.  Predicted winner:  Memphis

3/13 – Finals

3:15 p.m. (ESPN) (1) Temple vs. (6) Memphis.  Predicted winner:  Temple

ACC (March 8-12; Washington, D.C.)

3/12 – Finals

9 p.m. (ESPN) (1) North Carolina vs. (2) Virginia.  Predicted winner:  Virginia

America East (March 2, 7, 12; campus of higher seeds)

3/12 – Finals

11 a.m. (ESPN2) (3) Vermont at (1) Stony Brook.  Predicted winner:  Stony Brook

Atlantic 10 (March 9-13; Brooklyn)

3/12 – Semifinals

1:30 p.m. (CBSSN) (1) Dayton vs. (4) St. Joseph's.  Predicted winner:  Dayton

4 p.m. (CBSSN) (2) VCU vs. (6) Davidson.  Predicted winner:  VCU

3/13 – Finals

12:30 p.m. (CBS) (1) Dayton vs. (2) VCU.  Predicted winner:  Dayton

Big 12 (March 9-12; Kansas City)

3/12 – Finals

6 p.m. (ESPN) (1) Kansas vs. (2) West Virginia.  Predicted winner:  Kansas

Big East (March 9-12; New York)

3/12 – Finals

5:30 p.m. (Fox) (1) Villanova vs. (3) Seton Hall.  Predicted winner:  Villanova

Big Sky (March 8, 10-12; Reno)

3/12 – Finals

8:45 p.m. (ESPNU) (1) Weber State vs. (2) Montana.  Predicted winner:  Weber State

Big Ten (March 9-13; Indianapolis)

3/12 – Semifinals

1 p.m. (CBS) (8) Michigan vs. (4) Purdue.  Predicted winner:  Purdue

3:30 p.m. (CBS) (2) Michigan State vs. (3) Maryland.  Predicted winner:  Michigan State

3/13 – Finals

3 p.m. (CBS) (4) Purdue vs. (2) Michigan State.  Predicted winner:  Michigan State

Big West (March 10-12; Anaheim)

3/12 – Finals

11:30 p.m. (ESPN2) (1) Hawaii vs. (3) Long Beach State.  Predicted winner:  Hawaii

Conference USA (March 8-12; Birmingham, AL)

3/12 – Finals

2:30 p.m. (Fox Sports 1) (5) Old Dominion vs. (2) MTSU.  Predicted winner:  MTSU

MAC (March 7, 10-12; Cleveland)

3/12 – Finals

7:30 p.m. (ESPN2) (1) Akron vs. (3) Buffalo.  Predicted winner:  Akron

MEAC (March 7-12; Norfolk, VA)

3/12 – Final

1:00 p.m. (ESPN2) (1) Hampton vs. (3) South Carolina State.  Predicted winner:  Hampton

Mountain West (March 9-12; Las Vegas)

3/12 – Finals

6 p.m. (CBS) (1) San Diego State vs. (2) Fresno State.  Predicted winner:  San Diego State

Pac-12 (March 9-12; Las Vegas)

3/12 – Finals

11 p.m. (FS1) (1) Oregon vs. (2) Utah.  Predicted winner:  Oregon

SEC (March 9-13; Nashville)

3/12 – Semifinals

1 p.m. (ESPN) (1) Texas A&M vs. (4) LSU.  Predicted winner:  Texas A&M

3 p.m. (ESPN) (2) Kentucky vs. (6) Georgia.  Predicted winner:  Kentucky

3/13 – Finals

1 p.m. (ESPN) (1) Texas A&M vs. (2) Kentucky.  Predicted winner:  Kentucky

Southland (March 9-12; Katy, TX)

3/12 – Finals

9:30 p.m. (ESPN2) (1) Stephen F. Austin vs. (2) Texas A&M-CC. Predicted winner:  Stephen F. Austin

Sun Belt (March 10-13; New Orleans)

3/12 – Semifinals

2 p.m. (ESPN3) (1) Arkansas-Little Rock vs. (4) Louisiana Lafayette.  Predicted winner:  Arkansas-Little Rock

4:30 p.m. (ESPN3) (2) Louisiana Monroe vs. (3) UT-Arlington.  Predicted winner:  UT-Arlington

3/13 – Finals

1 p.m. (ESPN2) (1) Arkansas-Little Rock vs. (3) UT-Arlington.  Predicted winner:  Arkansas-Little Rock

SWAC (March 8-12; Houston)

3/12 – Finals

6:30 p.m. (ESPNU) (4) Southern vs. (3) Jackson State.  Predicted winner:  Jackson State

WAC (March 10-12; Las Vegas)

3/12 – Finals

11 p.m. (ESPNU) (1) New Mexico State vs. (2) Cal State Bakersfield.  Predicted winner:  New Mexico State