Updated Big Ten Tournament Seeding Predictions and NCAA Tournament Resumes

Due to a surprisingly intense game of hide and seek, along with my desire to sit on my couch and catch up on the season premier of Girls and a couple episodes of Portlandia, I did not have the time or will to compose a Tuesday Top Ten.  But thanks to my mania surrounding college basketball this time of year, you will be getting two posts today.

Last night's Big Ten games yielded no surprises, as Purdue beat up on Rutgers, 74-55, Michigan State put another nail in Ohio State's NCAA Tournament coffin, beating the Buckeyes 74-66, and "good Nebraska" showed up to beat Penn State, 82-66.

Tonight's games are both important ones.  Maryland travels to Evanston to take on Northwestern.  This game is not only a big one for the Big Ten standings and Big Ten Tournament seeding, but a win for Northwestern would put them at 20-6 and all but assure the Wildcats of their first ever NCAA Tournament appearance.  For the Terps, a win would bolster their NCAA Tournament resume with a Top 50 RPI road victory, while a loss would make it very difficult for them to win the regular season Big Ten crown.

In the other game, Indiana travels to The Barn to face Minnesota.  IU always seems to play poorly in Minneapolis, but the Hoosiers are in desperate need of a win if they have any hope of saving their fast-fading NCAA Tournament hopes.  Minnesota's RPI is in the Top 25, and a road win over a team like that might be what the Hoosiers need to get their heads out of their asses.  I'm not holding out hope, and I'll be at a concert anyway, so I won't have to witness the carnage -- although maybe that's exactly what the Hoosiers need to get back on track (me not watching a game).

Next games

Here are tonight's games (all times Eastern):

-Maryland at Northwestern (7:00 p.m.; BTN)

-Indiana at Minnesota (9:00 p.m.; BTN)

Current Standings

Here are the current standings, with the conference record, each team's remaining Big Ten games, and my predictions.  I will try to update these after every day or every couple days of games.

1.  Wisconsin (10-2):  at Michigan (W); Maryland (W); at Ohio State (W); at Michigan State (W); Iowa (W); Minnesota (W)

2.  Purdue (10-3):  Michigan State (W); at Penn State (W); at Michigan (W); Indiana (W); at Northwestern (L)

3.  Maryland (9-3):  at Northwestern (W); at Wisconsin (L); Minnesota (W); Iowa (W); at Rutgers (W); Michigan State (W)

4.  Northwestern (8-4):  Maryland (L); Rutgers (W); at Illinois (W); at Indiana (L); Michigan (W); Purdue (W)

5.  Michigan State (8-5):  at Purdue (L); Nebraska (W); Wisconsin (L); at Illinois (W); at Maryland (L)

6 (tie).  Minnesota (6-6):  Indiana (W); Michigan (W); at Maryland (L); Penn State (W); Nebraska (W); at Wisconsin (L)

6 (tie).  Michigan (6-6):  Wisconsin (L); at Minnesota (L); at Rutgers (W); Purdue (L); at Northwestern (L); at Nebraska (L)

8.  Iowa (6-7):  Illinois (W); Indiana (L); at Maryland (L); at Wisconsin (L); Penn State (W)

9.  Penn State (6-8):  Purdue (L); at Minnesota (L); Ohio State (W); at Iowa (L)

10 (tie).  Indiana (5-8):  at Minnesota (L); at Iowa (W); Northwestern (W); at Purdue (L); at Ohio State (W)

10 (tie).  Nebraska (5-8):  at Ohio State (L); at Michigan State (L); Illinois (W); at Minnesota (L); Michigan (W)

12.  Ohio State (5-9):  Nebraska (W); Wisconsin (L); at Penn State (L); Indiana (L)

13.  Illinois (4-9):  at Iowa (L); Northwestern (L); at Nebraska (L); Michigan State (L); at Rutgers (L)

14.  Rutgers (2-12):  at Northwestern (L); Michigan (L); Maryland (L); Illinois (W)

Projected Big Ten Tournament Seeding

Given my predictions and Big Ten tiebreaking rules, here is how the Big Ten Tournament seeds should fall into place (bold means a team has clinched that seed):

1.  Wisconsin (16-2)

2.  Purdue (14-4) (has tiebreaker over Maryland based on 1-0 head-to-head record)

3.  Maryland (14-4)  

4.  Northwestern (12-6)

5.  Michigan State (10-8) (has tiebreaker over Minnesota based on 2-0 head-to-head record)

6.  Minnesota (10-8)

7.  Indiana (8-10) (would have tiebreaker over Iowa based on 1-0 head-to-head record)

8.  Iowa (8-10)

9.  Nebraska (7-11) (Michigan and Nebraska both would have 2-1 records against the other two teams, while PSU would have an 0-2 record.  Nebraska would have the tiebreaker over Michigan based on better record vs. Purdue)

10.  Michigan (7-11)

11.  Penn State (7-11)

12.  Ohio State (6-12)

13.  Illinois (4-14)

14.  Rutgers (3-15)

Big Ten Tournament Schedule

In the past, I have also included far-too-premature predictions for every game of the Big Ten Tournament, but, like the last couple years, I'm not even going to try to do that this year until the seeds are more finalized.  However, here are the dates/times/TV schedule for the Big Ten Tournament (and a link to the bracket), which will be in Washington, DC.  All times are Eastern.

Wednesday March 8 – First Round

(12) vs. (13) (4:30 p.m. ESPN2)

(11) vs. (14) (7 p.m. BTN)

Thursday March 9 – Second Round

(8) vs. (9) (Noon, BTN)

(5) vs. (12)/(13) (2:30 p.m., BTN)

(7) vs. (10) (6:30 p.m., ESPN2)

(6) vs. (11)/(14) (9 p.m., ESPN2)

Friday March 10 – Quarterfinals

(1) vs. (8)/(9) (Noon, ESPN)

(4) vs. (5)/(12)/(13) (2:30 p.m., ESPN)

(2) vs. (7)/(10) (6:30 p.m., BTN)

(3) vs. (6)/(11)/(14) (9 p.m., BTN)

Saturday March 11 – Semifinals

(1)/(8)/(9) vs. (4)/(5)/(12)/(13) (1 p.m., CBS)

(2)/(7)/(10) vs. (3)/(6)/(11)/(14) (3:30 p.m., CBS)

Sunday March 12 – Finals

(1)/(4)/(5)/(8)/(9)/(12)/(13) vs. (2)/(3)/(6)/(7)/(10)/(11)/(14) (3 p.m., CBS)

NCAA Tournament Resumes for All 14 Big Ten Teams

Here is each Big Ten team's NCAA Tournament resume, including each team's RPI (based on ESPN's daily RPI), BPI (based on ESPN's BPI rankings), overall record against D-1 opponents, "good" wins (wins against RPI Top 50 teams or, if none, the team's best win), "bad" losses (losses against teams with an RPI of 101+ or, if none, the team's worst loss).  An * means the game was played on a neutral court, and for the "good" wins and "bad" losses, the team's current RPI is identified.  I have categorized the teams by "In," "Bubble," or "Out," which is my best guess, based on what I know right now, as to whether each team is a lock for the NCAA Tournament, is on the bubble, or is out.  I have also added a record vs. the RPI Top 50 and Top 100.  For the "In" and "Out" teams, I'm putting them in order based on RPI ranking.  For the "Bubble" teams, I am putting them in order based on what I think their likelihood of making the NCAA Tournament is (which may or may not fall in line with the RPI ranking).

In

1.  Purdue

RPI:  18

BPI:  9

Overall record:  21-5

Record vs. RPI Top 50:  5-3

Record vs. RPI Top 100:  10-4

Good wins:  5 (at Maryland (24), Notre Dame* (25), Wisconsin (26), Northwestern (34), at Michigan State (40))

Bad losses:  1 (at Iowa (106))

2.  Minnesota

RPI:  22

BPI:  44

Overall record:  18-7

Record vs. RPI Top 50:  4-5

Record vs. RPI Top 100:  8-7

Good wins:  4 (at Purdue (18), at Northwestern (34), UT Arlington (43), Arkansas (45))

Bad losses:  None (at Penn State (77))

3.  Maryland

RPI:  24

BPI:  43

Overall record:  21-4

Record vs. RPI Top 50:  3-1

Record vs. RPI Top 100:  12-4

Good wins:  3 (at Minnesota (22), Oklahoma State (30), Kansas State* (48))

Bad losses:  None (Nebraska (79))

4.  Wisconsin

RPI:  26

BPI:  15

Overall record:  21-4

Record vs. RPI Top 50:  2-4

Record vs. RPI Top 100:  12-4

Good wins:  2 (at Minnesota (21), Tennessee* (44))

Bad losses:  None (Northwestern (34))

5.  Northwestern

RPI:  34

BPI:  39

Overall record:  19-6

Record vs. RPI Top 50:  3-5

Record vs. RPI Top 100:  8-6

Good wins:  3 (at Wisconsin (26), Dayton* (29), Wake Forest (35))

Bad losses:  None (Illinois (67))

Bubble

6.  Michigan State

RPI:  40

BPI:  49

Overall record:  16-10

Record vs. RPI Top 50:  3-5

Record vs. RPI Top 100:  8-9

Good wins:  3 (Minnesota (22), at Minnesota (22), Northwestern (34))

Bad losses:  1 (Northeastern (137))

7.  Michigan

RPI:  56

BPI:  24

Overall record:  16-9

Record vs. RPI Top 50:  2-6

Record vs. RPI Top 100:  9-8

Good wins:  2 (SMU* (19), Michigan State (40))

Bad losses:  1 (at Iowa (106))

8.  Indiana

RPI:  89

BPI:  30

Overall record:  15-11

Record vs. RPI Top 50:  3-7

Record vs. RPI Top 100:  6-10

Good wins:  3 (Kansas* (3), North Carolina (5), Michigan State (40))

Bad losses:  1 (at Fort Wayne (164))

Out

9.  Ohio State

RPI:  62

BPI:  57

Overall record:  15-12

Record vs. RPI Top 50:  2-9

Record vs. RPI Top 100:  6-10

Good wins:  2 (Minnesota (22), Michigan State (40))

Bad losses:  2 (at Iowa (106), Florida Atlantic (296))

10.  Illinois

RPI:  67

BPI:  72

Overall record:  14-12

Record vs. RPI Top 50:  2-7

Record vs. RPI Top 100:  6-12

Good wins:  2 (VCU* (27), at Northwestern (34))

Bad losses:  None (at Indiana (89))

11.  Penn State

RPI:  77

BPI:  90

Overall record:  14-13

Record vs. RPI Top 50:  3-5

Record vs. RPI Top 100:  6-10

Good wins:  3 (Minnesota (22), Maryland (24), Michigan State* (40))

Bad losses:  3 (George Mason (110), Rutgers (143), Albany (159))

12.  Nebraska

RPI:  79

BPI:  101

Overall record:  11-14

Record vs. RPI Top 50:  3-8

Record vs. RPI Top 100:  5-11

Good wins:  3 (Purdue (18), at Maryland (24), Dayton* (29))

Bad losses:  3 (at Iowa (106), at Rutgers (143), Gardner-Webb (219))

13.  Iowa

RPI:  106

BPI:  89

Overall record:  14-12

Record vs. RPI Top 50:  1-8

Record vs. RPI Top 100:  5-10

Good wins:  1 (Purdue (18))

Bad losses:  2 (Memphis* (101), Omaha (182))

14.  Rutgers

RPI:  143

BPI:  146

Overall record:  13-14

Record vs. RPI Top 50:  0-8

Record vs. RPI Top 100:  2-12

Good wins:  None (at Penn State (77))

Bad losses:  2 (Iowa (106), at Iowa (106))