Updated Big Ten Tournament Seeding Predictions and NCAA Tournament Resumes

I keep talking about these trap games, and no one believes me.  Or maybe you do believe me.  Honestly, you've been quite silent about the topic, so I'm not sure how you feel.  Regardless, last night, Wisconsin laid a huge egg, losing to Ohio State in Columbus, 83-73.  That prevented the Badgers –- who have now lost 3 out of their last 4 -- from getting back into a tie with Purdue for the Big Ten lead, and it may end up costing them the 1-seed in the Big Ten Tournament.  In the other game, Michigan State avoided their trap, handling Nebraska quite easily, 88-72.

This weekend has some interesting games, with Northwestern traveling to Indiana, Purdue traveling to Michigan, and Wisconsin traveling to Michigan State.  The home team in each game is in need of a solid win to help their respective tournament resumes (even if IU needs more help than just one win), while Northwestern is trying to stay on the winning path to avoid a collapse, and Purdue and Wisconsin are battling for the Big Ten title.

I'd also keep an eye on Illinois at Nebraska.  The Illini's RPI is 56 right now, and there are three arguably winnable games remaining on their schedule, which would put them at 9-9 in the Big Ten and might push them back onto the bubble.  Or they could lose all three and get John Groce fired.

In other news, due to OSU's win over Wisconsin, IU is now alone in 13th place in the Big Ten.  Worse yet, IU's RPI just hit 100, making them one spot away from being a "bad loss" for the 15 teams they've beaten.  Take that, Kansas!  Of course, a win over Northwestern at home on Saturday will go a long way towards that 13-game win streak to end the season that I'm counting on.

Next games

Here are this weekend's games (all times Eastern):

Saturday

-Penn State at Minnesota (3:00 p.m.; BTN)

-Purdue at Michigan (4:00 p.m.; ESPN2)

-Iowa at Maryland (6:00 p.m.; ESPN2)

-Northwestern at Indiana (8:00 p.m.; BTN)

Sunday

-Wisconsin at Michigan State (4:00 p.m.; CBS)

-Illinois at Nebraska (7:30 p.m.; BTN)

Current Standings

Here are the current standings, with the conference record, each team's remaining Big Ten games, and my predictions.  I will try to update these after every day or every couple days of games.

1.  Purdue (12-3):  at Michigan (W); Indiana (W); at Northwestern (L)

2.  Wisconsin (11-4):  at Michigan State (W); Iowa (W); Minnesota (W)

3.  Maryland (10-5):  Iowa (W); at Rutgers (W); Michigan State (W)

4 (tie).  Minnesota (9-6):  Penn State (W); Nebraska (W); at Wisconsin (L)

4 (tie).  Northwestern (9-6):  at Indiana (L); Michigan (W); Purdue (W)

4 (tie).  Michigan State (9-6):  Wisconsin (L); at Illinois (W); at Maryland (L)

7.  Michigan (8-7):  Purdue (L); at Northwestern (L); at Nebraska (L)

8.  Iowa (7-8):  at Maryland (L); at Wisconsin (L); Penn State (W)

10 (tie).  Nebraska (6-9):  Illinois (W); at Minnesota (L); Michigan (W)

10 (tie).  Penn State (6-9):  at Minnesota (L); Ohio State (W); at Iowa (L)

10 (tie).  Illinois (6-9):  at Nebraska (L); Michigan State (L); at Rutgers (L)

12.  Ohio State (6-10):  at Penn State (L); Indiana (L)

13.  Indiana (5-10):  Northwestern (W); at Purdue (L); at Ohio State (W)

14.  Rutgers (2-14):  Maryland (L); Illinois (W)

Projected Big Ten Tournament Seeding

Given my predictions and Big Ten tiebreaking rules, here is how the Big Ten Tournament seeds should fall into place (bold means a team has clinched that seed):

1.  Purdue (14-4) (has tiebreaker over Wisconsin based on 1-0 head-to-head record)

2.  Wisconsin (14-4)

3.  Maryland (13-5)  

4.  Minnesota (11-7) (has tiebreaker over Northwestern based on 1-0 head-to-head record)

5.  Northwestern (11-7)

6.  Michigan State (10-8)

7.  Iowa (8-10) (would have tiebreaker over Michigan and Nebraska based on 2-1 record vs. other two teams, with Nebraska second at 2-2 and Michigan third at 1-2)

8.  Nebraska (8-10)

9.  Michigan (8-10)

10.  Indiana (7-11) (has tiebreaker over PSU based on 2-0 head-to-head record)

11.  Penn State (7-11)

12.  Illinois (6-12) (has tiebreaker over OSU based on 1-0 head-to-head record)

13.  Ohio State (6-12)

14.  Rutgers (3-15)

Big Ten Tournament Schedule

In the past, I have also included far-too-premature predictions for every game of the Big Ten Tournament, but, like the last couple years, I'm not even going to try to do that this year until the seeds are more finalized.  However, here are the dates/times/TV schedule for the Big Ten Tournament (and a link to the bracket), which will be in Washington, DC.  All times are Eastern.

Wednesday March 8 – First Round

(12) vs. (13) (4:30 p.m. ESPN2)

(11) vs. (14) Rutgers (7 p.m. BTN)

Thursday March 9 – Second Round

(8) vs. (9) (Noon, BTN)

(5) vs. (12)/(13) (2:30 p.m., BTN)

(7) vs. (10) (6:30 p.m., ESPN2)

(6) vs. (11)/(14) (9 p.m., ESPN2)

Friday March 10 – Quarterfinals

(1) vs. (8)/(9) (Noon, ESPN)

(4) vs. (5)/(12)/(13) (2:30 p.m., ESPN)

(2) vs. (7)/(10) (6:30 p.m., BTN)

(3) vs. (6)/(11)/(14) (9 p.m., BTN)

Saturday March 11 – Semifinals

(1)/(8)/(9) vs. (4)/(5)/(12)/(13) (1 p.m., CBS)

(2)/(7)/(10) vs. (3)/(6)/(11)/(14) (3:30 p.m., CBS)

Sunday March 12 – Finals

(1)/(4)/(5)/(8)/(9)/(12)/(13) vs. (2)/(3)/(6)/(7)/(10)/(11)/(14) (3 p.m., CBS)

NCAA Tournament Resumes for All 14 Big Ten Teams

Here is each Big Ten team's NCAA Tournament resume, including each team's RPI (based on ESPN's daily RPI), BPI (based on ESPN's BPI rankings), overall record against D-1 opponents, "good" wins (wins against RPI Top 50 teams or, if none, the team's best win), "bad" losses (losses against teams with an RPI of 101+ or, if none, the team's worst loss).  An * means the game was played on a neutral court, and for the "good" wins and "bad" losses, the team's current RPI is identified.  I have categorized the teams by "In," "Bubble," or "Out," which is my best guess, based on what I know right now, as to whether each team is a lock for the NCAA Tournament, is on the bubble, or is out.  I have also added a record vs. the RPI Top 50 and Top 100.  For the "In" and "Out" teams, I'm putting them in order based on RPI ranking.  For the "Bubble" teams, I am putting them in order based on what I think their likelihood of making the NCAA Tournament is (which may or may not fall in line with the RPI ranking).

In

1.  Minnesota

RPI:  15

BPI:  40

Overall record:  21-7

Record vs. RPI Top 50:  6-5

Record vs. RPI Top 100:  11-7

Good wins:  6 (at Purdue (16), at Maryland (21), UT Arlington (33), Arkansas (34), at Northwestern (42), Vanderbilt* (46))

Bad losses:  None (at Penn State (80))

2.  Purdue

RPI:  16

BPI:  10

Overall record:  23-5

Record vs. RPI Top 50:  6-3

Record vs. RPI Top 100:  12-4

Good wins:  6 (at Maryland (21), Notre Dame* (23), Wisconsin (26), Northwestern (42), at Michigan State (43), Michigan State (43))

Bad losses:  1 (at Iowa (108))

3.  Maryland

RPI:  21

BPI:  43

Overall record:  22-6

Record vs. RPI Top 50:  3-3

Record vs. RPI Top 100:  13-6

Good wins:  4 (at Minnesota (15), Oklahoma State (28), at Northwestern (42))

Bad losses:  None (at Penn State (80))

4.  Wisconsin

RPI:  26

BPI:  18

Overall record:  22-6

Record vs. RPI Top 50:  2-4

Record vs. RPI Top 100:  13-6

Good wins:  2 (at Minnesota (15), Maryland (21)

Bad losses:  None (at Ohio State (69))

5.  Northwestern

RPI:  42

BPI:  44

Overall record:  20-8

Record vs. RPI Top 50:  3-6

Record vs. RPI Top 100:  8-8

Good wins:  3 (Dayton* (25), at Wisconsin (26), Wake Forest (38))

Bad losses:  None (Illinois (56), at Illinois (56))

Bubble

6.  Michigan State

RPI:  43

BPI:  48

Overall record:  17-11

Record vs. RPI Top 50:  4-6

Record vs. RPI Top 100:  9-10

Good wins:  4 (Minnesota (15), at Minnesota (15), Northwestern (42), Wichita State* (45))

Bad losses:  1 (Northeastern (141))

7.  Michigan

RPI:  52

BPI:  25

Overall record:  18-10

Record vs. RPI Top 50:  3-7

Record vs. RPI Top 100:  9-9

Good wins:  3 (SMU* (18), Wisconsin (26), Michigan State (43))

Bad losses:  1 (at Iowa (108))

Out

8.  Illinois

RPI:  56

BPI:  69

Overall record:  16-12

Record vs. RPI Top 50:  3-7

Record vs. RPI Top 100:  7-12

Good wins:  3 (VCU* (24), Northwestern (42), at Northwestern (42))

Bad losses:  None (at Indiana (100))

9.  Ohio State

RPI:  69

BPI:  58

Overall record:  16-13

Record vs. RPI Top 50:  3-9

Record vs. RPI Top 100:  7-11

Good wins:  3 (Minnesota (15), Wisconsin (26), Michigan State (43))

Bad losses:  2 (at Iowa (108), Florida Atlantic (298))

10.  Nebraska

RPI:  76

BPI:  99

Overall record:  12-15

Record vs. RPI Top 50:  3-9

Record vs. RPI Top 100:  6-12

Good wins:  3 (Purdue (16), at Maryland (21), Dayton* (25))

Bad losses:  3 (at Iowa (108), at Rutgers (158), Gardner-Webb (208))

11.  Penn State

RPI:  80

BPI:  87

Overall record:  14-14

Record vs. RPI Top 50:  3-6

Record vs. RPI Top 100:  6-11

Good wins:  3 (Minnesota (15), Maryland (21), Michigan State* (43))

Bad losses:  3 (George Mason (110), Albany (138), Rutgers (158))

12.  Indiana

RPI:  100

BPI:  30

Overall record:  15-13

Record vs. RPI Top 50:  3-8

Record vs. RPI Top 100:  6-11

Good wins:  3 (Kansas* (1), North Carolina (2), Michigan State (43))

Bad losses:  2 (at Iowa (108), at Fort Wayne (177))

13.  Iowa

RPI:  108

BPI:  90

Overall record:  15-13

Record vs. RPI Top 50:  2-8

Record vs. RPI Top 100:  6-11

Good wins:  2 (Purdue (16), Iowa State (41))

Bad losses:  2 (Memphis* (107), Omaha (154))

14.  Rutgers

RPI:  158

BPI:  134

Overall record:  13-16

Record vs. RPI Top 50:  0-10

Record vs. RPI Top 100:  2-14

Good wins:  None (Nebraska (76))

Bad losses:  2 (Iowa (108), at Iowa (108))