Updated Big Ten Tournament Seeding Predictions and NCAA Tournament Resumes

Last night, Minnesota pulled off a big upset of Maryland in College Park, outscoring the Terps by 15 in the second half to cruise to an 89-75 win.  Barring two losses by both Purdue and Wisconsin, Maryland's shot at a Big Ten regular season title is all but over.  With the win, the Gophers move up from a projected 6-seed in the Big Ten Tournament to a projected 4-seed.

In the other game, which I accurately labeled a trap game, Michigan squeaked by Rutgers, 68-64.  A loss would have significantly hurt Michigan's NCAA Tournament chances.  Rutgers's loss means that the Scarlet Knights have clinched the 14-seed in the Big Ten Tournament.

Tonight, we have two more trap games.  Michigan State faces off against Nebraska, while Wisconsin travels to Ohio State, before the Spartans and Badgers meet on Sunday in East Lansing.

Next games

Here are tonight's games (all times Eastern):

-Nebraska at Michigan State (7:00 p.m.; ESPNU)

-Wisconsin at Ohio State (9:00 p.m.; ESPN)

Current Standings

Here are the current standings, with the conference record, each team's remaining Big Ten games, and my predictions.  I will try to update these after every day or every couple days of games.

1.  Purdue (12-3):  at Michigan (W); Indiana (W); at Northwestern (L)

2.  Wisconsin (11-3):  at Ohio State (W); at Michigan State (W); Iowa (W); Minnesota (W)

3.  Maryland (10-5):  Iowa (W); at Rutgers (W); Michigan State (W)

4 (tie).  Minnesota (9-6):  Penn State (W); Nebraska (W); at Wisconsin (L)

4 (tie).  Northwestern (9-6):  at Indiana (L); Michigan (W); Purdue (W)

6.  Michigan State (8-6):  Nebraska (W); Wisconsin (L); at Illinois (W); at Maryland (L)

7.  Michigan (8-7):  Purdue (L); at Northwestern (L); at Nebraska (L)

8.  Iowa (7-8):  at Maryland (L); at Wisconsin (L); Penn State (W)

9.  Nebraska (6-8):  at Michigan State (L); Illinois (W); at Minnesota (L); Michigan (W)

10 (tie).  Penn State (6-9):  at Minnesota (L); Ohio State (W); at Iowa (L)

10 (tie).  Illinois (6-9):  at Nebraska (L); Michigan State (L); at Rutgers (L)

12 (tie).  Indiana (5-10):  Northwestern (W); at Purdue (L); at Ohio State (W)

12 (tie).  Ohio State (5-10):  Wisconsin (L); at Penn State (L); Indiana (L)

14.  Rutgers (2-14):  Maryland (L); Illinois (W)

Projected Big Ten Tournament Seeding

Given my predictions and Big Ten tiebreaking rules, here is how the Big Ten Tournament seeds should fall into place (bold means a team has clinched that seed):

1.  Wisconsin (15-3)

2.  Purdue (14-4)

3.  Maryland (13-5)  

4.  Minnesota (11-7) (has tiebreaker over Northwestern based on 1-0 head-to-head record)

5.  Northwestern (11-7)

6.  Michigan State (10-8)

7.  Iowa (8-10) (would have tiebreaker over Michigan and Nebraska based on 2-1 record vs. other two teams, with Nebraska second at 2-2 and Michigan third at 1-2)

8.  Nebraska (8-10)

9.  Michigan (8-10)

10.  Indiana (7-11) (has tiebreaker over PSU based on 2-0 head-to-head record)

11.  Penn State (7-11)

12.  Illinois (6-12) (has tiebreaker over OSU based on 1-0 head-to-head record)

13.  Ohio State (5-13)

14.  Rutgers (3-15)

Big Ten Tournament Schedule

In the past, I have also included far-too-premature predictions for every game of the Big Ten Tournament, but, like the last couple years, I'm not even going to try to do that this year until the seeds are more finalized.  However, here are the dates/times/TV schedule for the Big Ten Tournament (and a link to the bracket), which will be in Washington, DC.  All times are Eastern.

Wednesday March 8 – First Round

(12) vs. (13) (4:30 p.m. ESPN2)

(11) vs. (14) Rutgers (7 p.m. BTN)

Thursday March 9 – Second Round

(8) vs. (9) (Noon, BTN)

(5) vs. (12)/(13) (2:30 p.m., BTN)

(7) vs. (10) (6:30 p.m., ESPN2)

(6) vs. (11)/(14) (9 p.m., ESPN2)

Friday March 10 – Quarterfinals

(1) vs. (8)/(9) (Noon, ESPN)

(4) vs. (5)/(12)/(13) (2:30 p.m., ESPN)

(2) vs. (7)/(10) (6:30 p.m., BTN)

(3) vs. (6)/(11)/(14) (9 p.m., BTN)

Saturday March 11 – Semifinals

(1)/(8)/(9) vs. (4)/(5)/(12)/(13) (1 p.m., CBS)

(2)/(7)/(10) vs. (3)/(6)/(11)/(14) (3:30 p.m., CBS)

Sunday March 12 – Finals

(1)/(4)/(5)/(8)/(9)/(12)/(13) vs. (2)/(3)/(6)/(7)/(10)/(11)/(14) (3 p.m., CBS)

NCAA Tournament Resumes for All 14 Big Ten Teams

Here is each Big Ten team's NCAA Tournament resume, including each team's RPI (based on ESPN's daily RPI), BPI (based on ESPN's BPI rankings), overall record against D-1 opponents, "good" wins (wins against RPI Top 50 teams or, if none, the team's best win), "bad" losses (losses against teams with an RPI of 101+ or, if none, the team's worst loss).  An * means the game was played on a neutral court, and for the "good" wins and "bad" losses, the team's current RPI is identified.  I have categorized the teams by "In," "Bubble," or "Out," which is my best guess, based on what I know right now, as to whether each team is a lock for the NCAA Tournament, is on the bubble, or is out.  I have also added a record vs. the RPI Top 50 and Top 100.  For the "In" and "Out" teams, I'm putting them in order based on RPI ranking.  For the "Bubble" teams, I am putting them in order based on what I think their likelihood of making the NCAA Tournament is (which may or may not fall in line with the RPI ranking).

In

1.  Minnesota

RPI:  15

BPI:  40

Overall record:  21-7

Record vs. RPI Top 50:  7-5

Record vs. RPI Top 100:  11-7

Good wins:  7 (at Purdue (17), at Maryland (21), Arkansas (32), UT Arlington (34), at Northwestern (42), Vanderbilt* (47), Michigan (50))

Bad losses:  None (at Penn State (81))

2.  Purdue

RPI:  17

BPI:  10

Overall record:  23-5

Record vs. RPI Top 50:  6-3

Record vs. RPI Top 100:  12-4

Good wins:  6 (at Maryland (21), Notre Dame* (23), Wisconsin (24), Northwestern (42), at Michigan State (43), Michigan State (43))

Bad losses:  1 (at Iowa (108))

3.  Maryland

RPI:  21

BPI:  43

Overall record:  22-6

Record vs. RPI Top 50:  4-3

Record vs. RPI Top 100:  13-6

Good wins:  4 (at Minnesota (15), Oklahoma State (28), at Northwestern (42), at Michigan (50))

Bad losses:  None (at Penn State (81))

4.  Wisconsin

RPI:  24

BPI:  16

Overall record:  22-5

Record vs. RPI Top 50:  3-5

Record vs. RPI Top 100:  13-5

Good wins:  3 (at Minnesota (15), Maryland (21), Michigan (50))

Bad losses:  None (at Michigan (50))

5.  Northwestern

RPI:  42

BPI:  44

Overall record:  20-8

Record vs. RPI Top 50:  3-6

Record vs. RPI Top 100:  8-8

Good wins:  3 (at Wisconsin (24), Dayton* (25), Wake Forest (38))

Bad losses:  None (Illinois (56), at Illinois (56))

Bubble

6.  Michigan State

RPI:  43

BPI:  50

Overall record:  16-11

Record vs. RPI Top 50:  5-7

Record vs. RPI Top 100:  8-10

Good wins:  5 (Minnesota (15), at Minnesota (15), Northwestern (43), Wichita State* (45), Michigan (50))

Bad losses:  1 (Northeastern (141))

7.  Michigan

RPI:  50

BPI:  25

Overall record:  18-10

Record vs. RPI Top 50:  3-7

Record vs. RPI Top 100:  9-9

Good wins:  3 (SMU* (19), Wisconsin (24), Michigan State (43))

Bad losses:  1 (at Iowa (108))

Out

8.  Illinois

RPI:  56

BPI:  69

Overall record:  16-12

Record vs. RPI Top 50:  4-8

Record vs. RPI Top 100:  7-12

Good wins:  4 (VCU* (26), Northwestern (42), at Northwestern (42), Michigan (50))

Bad losses:  None (at Indiana (98))

9.  Nebraska

RPI:  72

BPI:  96

Overall record:  12-14

Record vs. RPI Top 50:  3-9

Record vs. RPI Top 100:  6-11

Good wins:  3 (Purdue (17), at Maryland (21), Dayton* (25))

Bad losses:  3 (at Iowa (108), at Rutgers (152), Gardner-Webb (220))

10.  Ohio State

RPI:  79

BPI:  64

Overall record:  15-13

Record vs. RPI Top 50:  3-9

Record vs. RPI Top 100:  6-11

Good wins:  3 (Minnesota (15), Michigan State (43), at Michigan (50))

Bad losses:  2 (at Iowa (108), Florida Atlantic (291))

11.  Penn State

RPI:  81

BPI:  89

Overall record:  14-14

Record vs. RPI Top 50:  3-7

Record vs. RPI Top 100:  6-11

Good wins:  3 (Minnesota (15), Maryland (21), Michigan State* (43))

Bad losses:  3 (George Mason (109), Albany (139), Rutgers (152))

12.  Indiana

RPI:  98

BPI:  30

Overall record:  15-13

Record vs. RPI Top 50:  3-10

Record vs. RPI Top 100:  6-11

Good wins:  3 (Kansas* (1), North Carolina (2), Michigan State (43))

Bad losses:  2 (at Iowa (108), at Fort Wayne (167))

13.  Iowa

RPI:  108

BPI:  91

Overall record:  15-13

Record vs. RPI Top 50:  3-8

Record vs. RPI Top 100:  6-11

Good wins:  3 (Purdue (17), Iowa State (39), Michigan (50))

Bad losses:  2 (Memphis* (111), Omaha (155))

14.  Rutgers

RPI:  152

BPI:  135

Overall record:  13-16

Record vs. RPI Top 50:  0-11

Record vs. RPI Top 100:  2-14

Good wins:  None (Nebraska (72))

Bad losses:  2 (Iowa (108), at Iowa (108))