Updated Big Ten Tournament Seeding Predictions and NCAA Tournament Resumes

Last night, IU let what would have been a huge road win slip through their fingers, losing at Minnesota, 75-74, on a put-back lay-in with 2.9 seconds left.  The lead changed five times in the last 1:06, but unfortunately for the Hoosiers, it didn't change one more time.  I haven't given up all hope just yet –- as I still believe that this team has the ability to beat anyone they play -- but IU's NCAA Tournament hopes are looking quite bleak at this point, having lost six out of their last seven games.  I'm going to keep the Hoosiers in the "Bubble" category in my NCAA Tournament resume section below as long as they are still on Joe Lunardi's radar (and, as of today, they are still in the "Next Four Out").

In the other game, Maryland won a tough road game at Northwestern, 74-64, behind Melo Trimble's 32 points.

Tonight, conference leader Wisconsin travels to Michigan.  The Wolverines only have 2 wins over the RPI Top 50, so a win tonight would go a long way towards helping their NCAA Tournament resume, especially with their tough remaining schedule.  Four out of Michigan's last five games are on the road, including trips to Minnesota and Northwestern, and their only remaining home game is against Purdue.  IU had the same imbalanced schedule.  Frankly, I don't understand why the Big Ten would ever allow that to happen.

Next games

Here is tonight's game (all times Eastern):

-Wisconsin at Michigan (7:00 p.m.; ESPN)

Current Standings

Here are the current standings, with the conference record, each team's remaining Big Ten games, and my predictions.  I will try to update these after every day or every couple days of games.

1.  Wisconsin (10-2):  at Michigan (W); Maryland (W); at Ohio State (W); at Michigan State (W); Iowa (W); Minnesota (W)

2 (tie).  Purdue (10-3):  Michigan State (W); at Penn State (W); at Michigan (W); Indiana (W); at Northwestern (L)

2 (tie).  Maryland (10-3):  at Wisconsin (L); Minnesota (W); Iowa (W); at Rutgers (W); Michigan State (W)

4 (tie).  Northwestern (8-5):  Rutgers (W); at Illinois (W); at Indiana (L); Michigan (W); Purdue (W)

4 (tie).  Michigan State (8-5):  at Purdue (L); Nebraska (W); Wisconsin (L); at Illinois (W); at Maryland (L)

6.  Minnesota (7-6):  Michigan (W); at Maryland (L); Penn State (W); Nebraska (W); at Wisconsin (L)

7.  Michigan (6-6):  Wisconsin (L); at Minnesota (L); at Rutgers (W); Purdue (L); at Northwestern (L); at Nebraska (L)

8.  Iowa (6-7):  Illinois (W); Indiana (L); at Maryland (L); at Wisconsin (L); Penn State (W)

9.  Penn State (6-8):  Purdue (L); at Minnesota (L); Ohio State (W); at Iowa (L)

10.  Nebraska (5-8):  at Ohio State (L); at Michigan State (L); Illinois (W); at Minnesota (L); Michigan (W)

11 (tie).  Indiana (5-9):  at Iowa (W); Northwestern (W); at Purdue (L); at Ohio State (W)

11 (tie).  Ohio State (5-9):  Nebraska (W); Wisconsin (L); at Penn State (L); Indiana (L)

13.  Illinois (4-9):  at Iowa (L); Northwestern (L); at Nebraska (L); Michigan State (L); at Rutgers (L)

14.  Rutgers (2-12):  at Northwestern (L); Michigan (L); Maryland (L); Illinois (W)

Projected Big Ten Tournament Seeding

Given my predictions and Big Ten tiebreaking rules, here is how the Big Ten Tournament seeds should fall into place (bold means a team has clinched that seed):

1.  Wisconsin (16-2)

2.  Purdue (14-4) (has tiebreaker over Maryland based on 1-0 head-to-head record)

3.  Maryland (14-4)  

4.  Northwestern (12-6)

5.  Michigan State (10-8) (has tiebreaker over Minnesota based on 2-0 head-to-head record)

6.  Minnesota (10-8)

7.  Indiana (8-10) (would have tiebreaker over Iowa based on 1-0 head-to-head record)

8.  Iowa (8-10)

9.  Nebraska (7-11) (Michigan and Nebraska both would have 2-1 records against the other two teams, while PSU would have an 0-2 record.  Nebraska would have the tiebreaker over Michigan based on better record vs. Purdue)

10.  Michigan (7-11)

11.  Penn State (7-11)

12.  Ohio State (6-12)

13.  Illinois (4-14)

14.  Rutgers (3-15)

Big Ten Tournament Schedule

In the past, I have also included far-too-premature predictions for every game of the Big Ten Tournament, but, like the last couple years, I'm not even going to try to do that this year until the seeds are more finalized.  However, here are the dates/times/TV schedule for the Big Ten Tournament (and a link to the bracket), which will be in Washington, DC.  All times are Eastern.

Wednesday March 8 – First Round

(12) vs. (13) (4:30 p.m. ESPN2)

(11) vs. (14) (7 p.m. BTN)

Thursday March 9 – Second Round

(8) vs. (9) (Noon, BTN)

(5) vs. (12)/(13) (2:30 p.m., BTN)

(7) vs. (10) (6:30 p.m., ESPN2)

(6) vs. (11)/(14) (9 p.m., ESPN2)

Friday March 10 – Quarterfinals

(1) vs. (8)/(9) (Noon, ESPN)

(4) vs. (5)/(12)/(13) (2:30 p.m., ESPN)

(2) vs. (7)/(10) (6:30 p.m., BTN)

(3) vs. (6)/(11)/(14) (9 p.m., BTN)

Saturday March 11 – Semifinals

(1)/(8)/(9) vs. (4)/(5)/(12)/(13) (1 p.m., CBS)

(2)/(7)/(10) vs. (3)/(6)/(11)/(14) (3:30 p.m., CBS)

Sunday March 12 – Finals

(1)/(4)/(5)/(8)/(9)/(12)/(13) vs. (2)/(3)/(6)/(7)/(10)/(11)/(14) (3 p.m., CBS)

NCAA Tournament Resumes for All 14 Big Ten Teams

Here is each Big Ten team's NCAA Tournament resume, including each team's RPI (based on ESPN's daily RPI), BPI (based on ESPN's BPI rankings), overall record against D-1 opponents, "good" wins (wins against RPI Top 50 teams or, if none, the team's best win), "bad" losses (losses against teams with an RPI of 101+ or, if none, the team's worst loss).  An * means the game was played on a neutral court, and for the "good" wins and "bad" losses, the team's current RPI is identified.  I have categorized the teams by "In," "Bubble," or "Out," which is my best guess, based on what I know right now, as to whether each team is a lock for the NCAA Tournament, is on the bubble, or is out.  I have also added a record vs. the RPI Top 50 and Top 100.  For the "In" and "Out" teams, I'm putting them in order based on RPI ranking.  For the "Bubble" teams, I am putting them in order based on what I think their likelihood of making the NCAA Tournament is (which may or may not fall in line with the RPI ranking).

In

1.  Purdue

RPI:  17

BPI:  9

Overall record:  21-5

Record vs. RPI Top 50:  5-3

Record vs. RPI Top 100:  10-4

Good wins:  5 (at Maryland (19), Notre Dame* (24), Wisconsin (25), Northwestern (40), at Michigan State (41))

Bad losses:  1 (at Iowa (104))

2.  Maryland

RPI:  19

BPI:  39

Overall record:  22-4

Record vs. RPI Top 50:  3-1

Record vs. RPI Top 100:  13-4

Good wins:  3 (at Minnesota (21), Oklahoma State (28), at Northwestern (40))

Bad losses:  None (Nebraska (81))

3.  Minnesota

RPI:  21

BPI:  44

Overall record:  19-7

Record vs. RPI Top 50:  4-5

Record vs. RPI Top 100:  9-7

Good wins:  4 (at Purdue (17), Arkansas (35), at Northwestern (40), UT Arlington (42))

Bad losses:  None (at Penn State (75))

4.  Wisconsin

RPI:  25

BPI:  15

Overall record:  21-4

Record vs. RPI Top 50:  2-4

Record vs. RPI Top 100:  12-4

Good wins:  2 (at Minnesota (21), Tennessee* (43))

Bad losses:  None (Northwestern (40))

5.  Northwestern

RPI:  40

BPI:  42

Overall record:  19-7

Record vs. RPI Top 50:  3-6

Record vs. RPI Top 100:  8-7

Good wins:  3 (at Wisconsin (25), Dayton* (30), Wake Forest (36))

Bad losses:  None (Illinois (69))

Bubble

6.  Michigan State

RPI:  41

BPI:  49

Overall record:  16-10

Record vs. RPI Top 50:  3-5

Record vs. RPI Top 100:  8-9

Good wins:  4 (Minnesota (21), at Minnesota (21), Northwestern (40), Wichita State* (47))

Bad losses:  1 (Northeastern (134))

7.  Michigan

RPI:  55

BPI:  24

Overall record:  16-9

Record vs. RPI Top 50:  2-6

Record vs. RPI Top 100:  9-8

Good wins:  2 (SMU* (23), Michigan State (41))

Bad losses:  1 (at Iowa (104))

8.  Indiana

RPI:  88

BPI:  30

Overall record:  15-12

Record vs. RPI Top 50:  3-8

Record vs. RPI Top 100:  6-11

Good wins:  3 (Kansas* (2), North Carolina (5), Michigan State (41))

Bad losses:  1 (at Fort Wayne (146))

Out

9.  Ohio State

RPI:  63

BPI:  59

Overall record:  15-12

Record vs. RPI Top 50:  2-9

Record vs. RPI Top 100:  6-10

Good wins:  2 (Minnesota (21), Michigan State (41))

Bad losses:  2 (at Iowa (104), Florida Atlantic (298))

10.  Illinois

RPI:  69

BPI:  73

Overall record:  14-12

Record vs. RPI Top 50:  2-7

Record vs. RPI Top 100:  5-12

Good wins:  2 (VCU* (27), at Northwestern (40))

Bad losses:  None (at Indiana (88))

11.  Penn State

RPI:  75

BPI:  91

Overall record:  14-13

Record vs. RPI Top 50:  3-5

Record vs. RPI Top 100:  6-10

Good wins:  3 (Maryland (19), Minnesota (21), Michigan State* (41))

Bad losses:  3 (George Mason (111), Rutgers (142), Albany (150))

12.  Nebraska

RPI:  81

BPI:  100

Overall record:  11-14

Record vs. RPI Top 50:  3-8

Record vs. RPI Top 100:  5-11

Good wins:  3 (Purdue (17), at Maryland (19), Dayton* (30))

Bad losses:  3 (at Iowa (104), at Rutgers (142), Gardner-Webb (216))

13.  Iowa

RPI:  104

BPI:  92

Overall record:  14-12

Record vs. RPI Top 50:  2-8

Record vs. RPI Top 100:  5-10

Good wins:  2 (Purdue (17), Iowa State (46))

Bad losses:  2 (Memphis* (102), Omaha (182))

14.  Rutgers

RPI:  142

BPI:  146

Overall record:  13-14

Record vs. RPI Top 50:  0-9

Record vs. RPI Top 100:  2-12

Good wins:  None (at Penn State (75))

Bad losses:  2 (Iowa (104), at Iowa (104))