Updated Big Ten Tournament Seeding Predictions and NCAA Tournament Resumes

Michigan got a huge win last night for their NCAA Tournament resume, knocking off #11 Wisconsin in Ann Arbor, 64-58.  It's the third win over an RPI Top 50 team for the Wolverines, and especially important given their relatively difficult remaining schedule.  The loss drops the Badgers into a three-way tie for first with Purdue and Maryland.  While I don't think the loss will have any effect on Wisconsin's ability to win the Big Ten title outright, it does shake up my predicted 7-10 seeds for the Big Ten Tournament. Before last night, I had the 7-10 seeds as Indiana, Iowa, Nebraska, Michigan, in that order.  Now, Michigan vaults up to my predicted 7-seed, followed by Iowa, Indiana, and Nebraska at 8, 9, and 10, respectively.

This weekend, there are a couple intriguing matchups, like Michigan State at Purdue on Saturday, and Maryland at Wisconsin and Michigan at Minnesota on Sunday.

Next games

Here are this weekend's games (all times Eastern):

Saturday

-Illinois at Iowa (2:00 p.m.; BTN)

-Michigan State at Purdue (4:00 p.m.; ESPN)

-Rutgers at Northwestern (6:00 p.m.; ESPNU)

-Nebraska at Ohio State (6:00 p.m.; BTN)

Sunday

-Maryland at Wisconsin (1:00 p.m.; CBS)

-Michigan at Minnesota (7:00 p.m.; BTN)

Current Standings

Here are the current standings, with the conference record, each team's remaining Big Ten games, and my predictions.  I will try to update these after every day or every couple days of games.

1 (tie).  Wisconsin (10-3):  Maryland (W); at Ohio State (W); at Michigan State (W); Iowa (W); Minnesota (W)

1 (tie).  Purdue (10-3):  Michigan State (W); at Penn State (W); at Michigan (W); Indiana (W); at Northwestern (L)

1 (tie).  Maryland (10-3):  at Wisconsin (L); Minnesota (W); Iowa (W); at Rutgers (W); Michigan State (W)

4 (tie).  Northwestern (8-5):  Rutgers (W); at Illinois (W); at Indiana (L); Michigan (W); Purdue (W)

4 (tie).  Michigan State (8-5):  at Purdue (L); Nebraska (W); Wisconsin (L); at Illinois (W); at Maryland (L)

6 (tie).  Minnesota (7-6):  Michigan (W); at Maryland (L); Penn State (W); Nebraska (W); at Wisconsin (L)

6 (tie).  Michigan (7-6):  at Minnesota (L); at Rutgers (W); Purdue (L); at Northwestern (L); at Nebraska (L)

8.  Iowa (6-7):  Illinois (W); Indiana (L); at Maryland (L); at Wisconsin (L); Penn State (W)

9.  Penn State (6-8):  Purdue (L); at Minnesota (L); Ohio State (W); at Iowa (L)

10.  Nebraska (5-8):  at Ohio State (L); at Michigan State (L); Illinois (W); at Minnesota (L); Michigan (W)

11 (tie).  Indiana (5-9):  at Iowa (W); Northwestern (W); at Purdue (L); at Ohio State (W)

11 (tie).  Ohio State (5-9):  Nebraska (W); Wisconsin (L); at Penn State (L); Indiana (L)

13.  Illinois (4-9):  at Iowa (L); Northwestern (L); at Nebraska (L); Michigan State (L); at Rutgers (L)

14.  Rutgers (2-12):  at Northwestern (L); Michigan (L); Maryland (L); Illinois (W)

Projected Big Ten Tournament Seeding

Given my predictions and Big Ten tiebreaking rules, here is how the Big Ten Tournament seeds should fall into place (bold means a team has clinched that seed):

1.  Wisconsin (15-3)

2.  Purdue (14-4) (has tiebreaker over Maryland based on 1-0 head-to-head record)

3.  Maryland (14-4)  

4.  Northwestern (12-6)

5.  Michigan State (10-8) (has tiebreaker over Minnesota based on 2-0 head-to-head record)

6.  Minnesota (10-8)

7.  Michigan (8-10) (would have tiebreaker over IU and Iowa based on 2-1 record vs. other two teams, with Iowa next with 1-1 record, and IU third with 1-2 record)

8.  Iowa (8-10)

9.  Indiana (8-10)

10.  Nebraska (7-11) (has tiebreaker over PSU based on 1-0 head-to-head record)

11.  Penn State (7-11)

12.  Ohio State (6-12)

13.  Illinois (4-14)

14.  Rutgers (3-15)

Big Ten Tournament Schedule

In the past, I have also included far-too-premature predictions for every game of the Big Ten Tournament, but, like the last couple years, I'm not even going to try to do that this year until the seeds are more finalized.  However, here are the dates/times/TV schedule for the Big Ten Tournament (and a link to the bracket), which will be in Washington, DC.  All times are Eastern.

Wednesday March 8 – First Round

(12) vs. (13) (4:30 p.m. ESPN2)

(11) vs. (14) (7 p.m. BTN)

Thursday March 9 – Second Round

(8) vs. (9) (Noon, BTN)

(5) vs. (12)/(13) (2:30 p.m., BTN)

(7) vs. (10) (6:30 p.m., ESPN2)

(6) vs. (11)/(14) (9 p.m., ESPN2)

Friday March 10 – Quarterfinals

(1) vs. (8)/(9) (Noon, ESPN)

(4) vs. (5)/(12)/(13) (2:30 p.m., ESPN)

(2) vs. (7)/(10) (6:30 p.m., BTN)

(3) vs. (6)/(11)/(14) (9 p.m., BTN)

Saturday March 11 – Semifinals

(1)/(8)/(9) vs. (4)/(5)/(12)/(13) (1 p.m., CBS)

(2)/(7)/(10) vs. (3)/(6)/(11)/(14) (3:30 p.m., CBS)

Sunday March 12 – Finals

(1)/(4)/(5)/(8)/(9)/(12)/(13) vs. (2)/(3)/(6)/(7)/(10)/(11)/(14) (3 p.m., CBS)

NCAA Tournament Resumes for All 14 Big Ten Teams

Here is each Big Ten team's NCAA Tournament resume, including each team's RPI (based on ESPN's daily RPI), BPI (based on ESPN's BPI rankings), overall record against D-1 opponents, "good" wins (wins against RPI Top 50 teams or, if none, the team's best win), "bad" losses (losses against teams with an RPI of 101+ or, if none, the team's worst loss).  An * means the game was played on a neutral court, and for the "good" wins and "bad" losses, the team's current RPI is identified.  I have categorized the teams by "In," "Bubble," or "Out," which is my best guess, based on what I know right now, as to whether each team is a lock for the NCAA Tournament, is on the bubble, or is out.  I have also added a record vs. the RPI Top 50 and Top 100.  For the "In" and "Out" teams, I'm putting them in order based on RPI ranking.  For the "Bubble" teams, I am putting them in order based on what I think their likelihood of making the NCAA Tournament is (which may or may not fall in line with the RPI ranking).

In

1.  Maryland

RPI:  17

BPI:  39

Overall record:  22-4

Record vs. RPI Top 50:  3-1

Record vs. RPI Top 100:  13-4

Good wins:  3 (at Minnesota (20), Oklahoma State (28), at Northwestern (39))

Bad losses:  None (Nebraska (80))

2.  Purdue

RPI:  19

BPI:  9

Overall record:  21-5

Record vs. RPI Top 50:  5-3

Record vs. RPI Top 100:  10-4

Good wins:  5 (at Maryland (17), Notre Dame* (23), Wisconsin (26), Northwestern (39), at Michigan State (41))

Bad losses:  1 (at Iowa (103))

3.  Minnesota

RPI:  20

BPI:  44

Overall record:  19-7

Record vs. RPI Top 50:  4-5

Record vs. RPI Top 100:  9-7

Good wins:  4 (at Purdue (19), Arkansas (34), at Northwestern (39), UT Arlington (43))

Bad losses:  None (at Penn State (75))

4.  Wisconsin

RPI:  26

BPI:  16

Overall record:  21-5

Record vs. RPI Top 50:  2-4

Record vs. RPI Top 100:  12-5

Good wins:  2 (at Minnesota (20), Tennessee* (45))

Bad losses:  None (at Michigan (52))

5.  Northwestern

RPI:  39

BPI:  42

Overall record:  19-7

Record vs. RPI Top 50:  3-6

Record vs. RPI Top 100:  8-7

Good wins:  3 (at Wisconsin (26), Dayton* (29), Wake Forest (37))

Bad losses:  None (Illinois (69))

Bubble

6.  Michigan State

RPI:  41

BPI:  50

Overall record:  16-10

Record vs. RPI Top 50:  3-5

Record vs. RPI Top 100:  8-9

Good wins:  4 (Minnesota (20), at Minnesota (20), Northwestern (39), Wichita State* (47))

Bad losses:  1 (Northeastern (137))

7.  Michigan

RPI:  52

BPI:  23

Overall record:  17-9

Record vs. RPI Top 50:  3-6

Record vs. RPI Top 100:  10-8

Good wins:  3 (SMU* (21), Wisconsin (26), Michigan State (41))

Bad losses:  1 (at Iowa (103))

8.  Indiana

RPI:  89

BPI:  30

Overall record:  15-12

Record vs. RPI Top 50:  3-8

Record vs. RPI Top 100:  6-11

Good wins:  3 (Kansas* (2), North Carolina (5), Michigan State (41))

Bad losses:  1 (at Fort Wayne (141))

Out

9.  Ohio State

RPI:  63

BPI:  59

Overall record:  15-12

Record vs. RPI Top 50:  2-9

Record vs. RPI Top 100:  6-10

Good wins:  2 (Minnesota (20), Michigan State (41))

Bad losses:  2 (at Iowa (103), Florida Atlantic (298))

10.  Illinois

RPI:  69

BPI:  72

Overall record:  14-12

Record vs. RPI Top 50:  2-7

Record vs. RPI Top 100:  5-12

Good wins:  2 (VCU* (27), at Northwestern (39))

Bad losses:  None (at Indiana (89))

11.  Penn State

RPI:  75

BPI:  92

Overall record:  14-13

Record vs. RPI Top 50:  3-5

Record vs. RPI Top 100:  6-10

Good wins:  3 (Maryland (17), Minnesota (20), Michigan State* (41))

Bad losses:  3 (George Mason (110), Rutgers (146), Albany (147))

12.  Nebraska

RPI:  80

BPI:  99

Overall record:  11-14

Record vs. RPI Top 50:  3-8

Record vs. RPI Top 100:  5-11

Good wins:  3 (at Maryland (17), Purdue (19), Dayton* (29))

Bad losses:  3 (at Iowa (103), at Rutgers (146), Gardner-Webb (215))

13.  Iowa

RPI:  103

BPI:  93

Overall record:  14-12

Record vs. RPI Top 50:  2-8

Record vs. RPI Top 100:  5-10

Good wins:  2 (Purdue (19), Iowa State (46))

Bad losses:  2 (Memphis* (107), Omaha (180))

14.  Rutgers

RPI:  146

BPI:  147

Overall record:  13-14

Record vs. RPI Top 50:  0-9

Record vs. RPI Top 100:  2-12

Good wins:  None (at Penn State (75))

Bad losses:  2 (Iowa (103), at Iowa (103))