Updated Big Ten Tournament Seeding Predictions and NCAA Tournament Resumes

And that should just about do it.  I didn't post a Tuesday Top Ten last night because I was too busy watching my beloved Hoosiers' NCAA Tournament hopes get flushed down the toilet with a tough 96-90 overtime loss at Iowa.  IU has now lost five straight, and 7 of 9 since OG Anunoby went down for the season.  While one man doesn't make a team, I underestimated how much OG meant to the Hoosiers, who are palpably missing his energy, defense, and quiet leadership.  I'm not making excuses –- IU is still far too talented of a team to go 2-7 over any stretch of games -- but OG is certainly missed.  At 15-13 overall and 5-10 in league play, the Hoosiers will need a miracle to make the NCAA Tournament at this point.  They will certainly have to improve upon their 15.4 turnovers a game, which ranks tied for 337 (out of 351 Division 1 teams) with teams like Radford (12-16), Longwood (6-21), Northwestern State (10-15), and Oregon State (5-23).  Yes, there are only 14 teams out of 351 that turn the ball over more than the Hoosiers.  Bravo.  I'm moving them from my "Bubble" to "Out."  Needless to say, this season has turned into a major disappointment, given that IU was ranked as high as #3 earlier this season and had legitimate Final Four aspirations.

In the two other games, which I accurately labeled as trap games in yesterday's post, Purdue needed OT to beat Penn State, while Northwestern got shellacked by Illinois in Champaign, 66-50.  I still think Northwestern is safe to make its first ever NCAA Tournament appearance, barring a complete collapse over the next couple weeks.

Tonight, Michigan has a trap game at Rutgers, and Minnesota travels to Maryland for what should be a pretty entertaining game.

Next games

Here are tonight's games (all times Eastern):

-Michigan at Rutgers (6:30 p.m.; BTN)

-Minnesota at Maryland (8:30 p.m.; BTN)

Current Standings

Here are the current standings, with the conference record, each team's remaining Big Ten games, and my predictions.  I will try to update these after every day or every couple days of games.

1.  Purdue (12-3):  at Michigan (W); Indiana (W); at Northwestern (L)

2.  Wisconsin (11-3):  at Ohio State (W); at Michigan State (W); Iowa (W); Minnesota (W)

3.  Maryland (10-4):  Minnesota (W); Iowa (W); at Rutgers (W); Michigan State (W)

4.  Northwestern (9-6):  at Indiana (L); Michigan (W); Purdue (W)

5 (tie).  Michigan State (8-6):  Nebraska (W); Wisconsin (L); at Illinois (W); at Maryland (L)

5 (tie).  Minnesota (8-6):  at Maryland (L); Penn State (W); Nebraska (W); at Wisconsin (L)

7.  Michigan (7-7):  at Rutgers (W); Purdue (L); at Northwestern (L); at Nebraska (L)

8.  Iowa (7-8):  at Maryland (L); at Wisconsin (L); Penn State (W)

9.  Nebraska (6-8):  at Michigan State (L); Illinois (W); at Minnesota (L); Michigan (W)

10.  Penn State (6-9):  at Minnesota (L); Ohio State (W); at Iowa (L)

11.  Illinois (6-9):  at Nebraska (L); Michigan State (L); at Rutgers (L)

12 (tie).  Indiana (5-10):  Northwestern (W); at Purdue (L); at Ohio State (W)

12 (tie).  Ohio State (5-10):  Wisconsin (L); at Penn State (L); Indiana (L)

14.  Rutgers (2-13):  Michigan (L); Maryland (L); Illinois (W)

Projected Big Ten Tournament Seeding

Given my predictions and Big Ten tiebreaking rules, here is how the Big Ten Tournament seeds should fall into place (bold means a team has clinched that seed):

1.  Wisconsin (15-3)

2.  Purdue (14-4) (has tiebreaker over Maryland based on 1-0 head-to-head record)

3.  Maryland (14-4)  

4.  Northwestern (11-7)

5.  Michigan State (10-8) (has tiebreaker over Minnesota based on 2-0 head-to-head record)

6.  Minnesota (10-8)

7.  Iowa (8-10) (would have tiebreaker over Michigan and Nebraska based on 2-1 record vs. other two teams, with Nebraska second at 2-2 and Michigan third at 1-2)

8.  Nebraska (8-10)

9.  Michigan (8-10)

10.  Indiana (7-11) (has tiebreaker over PSU based on 2-0 head-to-head record)

11.  Penn State (7-11)

12.  Illinois (6-12) (has tiebreaker over OSU based on 1-0 head-to-head record)

13.  Ohio State (5-13)

14.  Rutgers (3-15)

Big Ten Tournament Schedule

In the past, I have also included far-too-premature predictions for every game of the Big Ten Tournament, but, like the last couple years, I'm not even going to try to do that this year until the seeds are more finalized.  However, here are the dates/times/TV schedule for the Big Ten Tournament (and a link to the bracket), which will be in Washington, DC.  All times are Eastern.

Wednesday March 8 – First Round

(12) vs. (13) (4:30 p.m. ESPN2)

(11) vs. (14) (7 p.m. BTN)

Thursday March 9 – Second Round

(8) vs. (9) (Noon, BTN)

(5) vs. (12)/(13) (2:30 p.m., BTN)

(7) vs. (10) (6:30 p.m., ESPN2)

(6) vs. (11)/(14) (9 p.m., ESPN2)

Friday March 10 – Quarterfinals

(1) vs. (8)/(9) (Noon, ESPN)

(4) vs. (5)/(12)/(13) (2:30 p.m., ESPN)

(2) vs. (7)/(10) (6:30 p.m., BTN)

(3) vs. (6)/(11)/(14) (9 p.m., BTN)

Saturday March 11 – Semifinals

(1)/(8)/(9) vs. (4)/(5)/(12)/(13) (1 p.m., CBS)

(2)/(7)/(10) vs. (3)/(6)/(11)/(14) (3:30 p.m., CBS)

Sunday March 12 – Finals

(1)/(4)/(5)/(8)/(9)/(12)/(13) vs. (2)/(3)/(6)/(7)/(10)/(11)/(14) (3 p.m., CBS)

NCAA Tournament Resumes for All 14 Big Ten Teams

Here is each Big Ten team's NCAA Tournament resume, including each team's RPI (based on ESPN's daily RPI), BPI (based on ESPN's BPI rankings), overall record against D-1 opponents, "good" wins (wins against RPI Top 50 teams or, if none, the team's best win), "bad" losses (losses against teams with an RPI of 101+ or, if none, the team's worst loss).  An * means the game was played on a neutral court, and for the "good" wins and "bad" losses, the team's current RPI is identified.  I have categorized the teams by "In," "Bubble," or "Out," which is my best guess, based on what I know right now, as to whether each team is a lock for the NCAA Tournament, is on the bubble, or is out.  I have also added a record vs. the RPI Top 50 and Top 100.  For the "In" and "Out" teams, I'm putting them in order based on RPI ranking.  For the "Bubble" teams, I am putting them in order based on what I think their likelihood of making the NCAA Tournament is (which may or may not fall in line with the RPI ranking).

In

1.  Purdue

RPI:  15

BPI:  9

Overall record:  23-5

Record vs. RPI Top 50:  6-3

Record vs. RPI Top 100:  12-4

Good wins:  6 (at Maryland (18), Notre Dame* (24), Wisconsin (25), Northwestern (42), at Michigan State (43), Michigan State (43))

Bad losses:  1 (at Iowa (108))

2.  Maryland

RPI:  18

BPI:  40

Overall record:  22-5

Record vs. RPI Top 50:  3-2

Record vs. RPI Top 100:  13-5

Good wins:  3 (at Minnesota (21), Oklahoma State (29), at Northwestern (42))

Bad losses:  None (at Penn State (76))

3.  Minnesota

RPI:  21

BPI:  42

Overall record:  20-7

Record vs. RPI Top 50:  5-5

Record vs. RPI Top 100:  10-7

Good wins:  5 (at Purdue (15), Arkansas (33), UT Arlington (34), at Northwestern (42), Vanderbilt* (49))

Bad losses:  None (at Ohio State (77))

4.  Wisconsin

RPI:  25

BPI:  16

Overall record:  22-5

Record vs. RPI Top 50:  3-4

Record vs. RPI Top 100:  13-5

Good wins:  3 (Maryland (18), at Minnesota (21), Tennessee* (50))

Bad losses:  None (at Michigan (52))

5.  Northwestern

RPI:  42

BPI:  44

Overall record:  20-8

Record vs. RPI Top 50:  3-6

Record vs. RPI Top 100:  8-8

Good wins:  3 (at Wisconsin (25), Dayton* (27), Wake Forest (40))

Bad losses:  None (Illinois (63), at Illinois (63))

Bubble

6.  Michigan State

RPI:  43

BPI:  52

Overall record:  16-11

Record vs. RPI Top 50:  4-6

Record vs. RPI Top 100:  8-10

Good wins:  4 (Minnesota (21), at Minnesota (21), Northwestern (42), Wichita State* (45))

Bad losses:  1 (Northeastern (139))

7.  Michigan

RPI:  52

BPI:  24

Overall record:  17-10

Record vs. RPI Top 50:  3-7

Record vs. RPI Top 100:  9-9

Good wins:  3 (SMU* (19), Wisconsin (25), Michigan State (43))

Bad losses:  1 (at Iowa (108))

Out

8.  Illinois

RPI:  56

BPI:  69

Overall record:  16-12

Record vs. RPI Top 50:  3-7

Record vs. RPI Top 100:  7-12

Good wins:  3 (VCU* (26), Northwestern (42), at Northwestern (42))

Bad losses:  None (at Indiana (98))

9.  Nebraska

RPI:  72

BPI:  96

Overall record:  12-14

Record vs. RPI Top 50:  3-8

Record vs. RPI Top 100:  6-11

Good wins:  3 (Purdue (15), at Maryland (18), Dayton* (27))

Bad losses:  3 (at Iowa (108), at Rutgers (145), Gardner-Webb (215))

10.  Penn State

RPI:  76

BPI:  89

Overall record:  14-14

Record vs. RPI Top 50:  3-6

Record vs. RPI Top 100:  6-11

Good wins:  3 (Maryland (18), Minnesota (21), Michigan State* (43))

Bad losses:  3 (George Mason (109), Rutgers (145), Albany (147))

11.  Ohio State

RPI:  77

BPI:  64

Overall record:  15-13

Record vs. RPI Top 50:  2-9

Record vs. RPI Top 100:  6-11

Good wins:  2 (Minnesota (21), Michigan State (43))

Bad losses:  2 (at Iowa (108), Florida Atlantic (292))

12.  Indiana

RPI:  98

BPI:  29

Overall record:  15-13

Record vs. RPI Top 50:  3-8

Record vs. RPI Top 100:  6-11

Good wins:  3 (Kansas* (1), North Carolina (4), Michigan State (43))

Bad losses:  2 (at Iowa (108), at Fort Wayne (166))

13.  Iowa

RPI:  108

BPI:  91

Overall record:  15-13

Record vs. RPI Top 50:  2-8

Record vs. RPI Top 100:  6-11

Good wins:  2 (Purdue (15), Iowa State (38))

Bad losses:  2 (Memphis* (110), Omaha (175))

14.  Rutgers

RPI:  145

BPI:  142

Overall record:  13-15

Record vs. RPI Top 50:  0-10

Record vs. RPI Top 100:  2-13

Good wins:  None (Nebraska (72))

Bad losses:  2 (Iowa (108), at Iowa (108))