Updated Big Ten Tournament Seeding Predictions and NCAA Tournament Resumes

Does anyone want to win the Big Ten title?  In what is already perceived to be a down year for the Big Ten, the teams at the top of the standings continue to assert their lack of dominance.  On Saturday, Big Ten leader Purdue lost by 12 at Michigan, while third-place Maryland shit away any hopes of gaining ground by getting blown out at home by Iowa.  Sunday, Wisconsin had a chance to get back into a tie for first, but blew that opportunity with a loss to Michigan State, 84-74, in East Lansing.  The Badgers have now lost 4 out of 5, and the Terps have lost 5 out of 7.

In other games, IU got a much-needed win, scoring the final eight points of the game to beat Northwestern 63-62.  I'm not saying that puts the Hoosiers back into the NCAA Tournament conversation just yet, but it's a Top 50 RPI win, which is better than a home loss.  Minnesota beat Penn State, 81-71, and Illinois beat Nebraska, 73-57, keeping the Illini's slim NCAA Tournament hopes alive.

After this weekend's games, assuming my remaining predictions are right (which is unlikely, based on my past record), only the 3rd, 13th, and 14th seeds in the Big Ten Tournament will not be determined by tiebreakers.  There may be a 4-team tie for 8th place.

With two games left, five teams still have a chance to win at least a share of the Big Ten title.  Purdue and Wisconsin are the only teams that have a chance at winning the title outright, but Maryland, Minnesota, and Michigan State are all still in contention for a share of the title.  If Purdue loses another game, that would guarantee that the Big Ten regular season champ would have at least five losses for the first time since the 2012 season, when Michigan, Michigan State, and Ohio State tied atop the standings at 13-5, and only the 6th time ever –- the other years being 2002 (Illinois, Indiana, Wisconsin tied at 11-5), 1983 (Indiana, 13-5), 1980 (Indiana, 13-5), and 1979 (Iowa, Michigan State, Purdue tied at 13-5).

More trap games are coming, as IU travels to Purdue and Maryland travels to Rutgers tomorrow night.

Next games

Here are Tuesday's games (all times Eastern):

-Maryland at Rutgers (6:30 p.m.; BTN)

-Indiana at Purdue (7:00 p.m.; ESPN2)

-Ohio State at Penn State (8:30 p.m.; BTN)

Current Standings

Here are the current standings, with the conference record, each team's remaining Big Ten games, and my predictions.  I will try to update these after every day or every couple days of games.

1.  Purdue (12-4):  Indiana (W); at Northwestern (L)

2.  Wisconsin (11-5):  Iowa (W); Minnesota (W)

3 (tie).  Maryland (10-6):  at Rutgers (W); Michigan State (W)

3 (tie).  Minnesota (10-6):  Nebraska (W); at Wisconsin (L)

3 (tie).  Michigan State (10-6):  at Illinois (W); at Maryland (L)

6 (tie).  Northwestern (9-7):  Michigan (W); Purdue (W)

6 (tie).  Michigan (9-7):  at Northwestern (L); at Nebraska (L)

8.  Iowa (8-8):  at Wisconsin (L); Penn State (W)

9.  Illinois (7-9):  Michigan State (L); at Rutgers (L)

10 (tie).  Indiana (6-10):  at Purdue (L); at Ohio State (W)

10 (tie).  Nebraska (6-10):  at Minnesota (L); Michigan (W)

10 (tie).  Penn State (6-10):  Ohio State (W); at Iowa (L)

10 (tie).  Ohio State (6-10):  at Penn State (L); Indiana (L)

14.  Rutgers (2-14):  Maryland (L); Illinois (W)

Projected Big Ten Tournament Seeding

Given my predictions and Big Ten tiebreaking rules, here is how the Big Ten Tournament seeds should fall into place (bold means a team has clinched that seed):

1.  Purdue (13-5) (has tiebreaker over Wisconsin based on 1-0 head-to-head record)

2.  Wisconsin (13-5)

3.  Maryland (12-6)  

4.  Michigan State (11-7) (has tiebreaker based on 3-0 record vs. other two teams, with Minnesota next at 1-2 and Northwestern third at 0-3)

5.  Minnesota (11-7)

6.  Northwestern (11-7)

7.  Michigan (9-9) (has tiebreaker over Iowa based on 1-0 head-to-head record)

8.  Iowa (9-9)

9.  Indiana (7-11) (has tiebreaker based on 3-1 record vs. other three teams, with Nebraska second at 2-1, Penn State third at 2-3, and Illinois fourth at 1-3)

10.  Nebraska (7-11)

11.  Penn State (7-11)

12.  Illinois (7-11)

13.  Ohio State (6-12)

14.  Rutgers (3-15)

Big Ten Tournament Schedule

In the past, I have also included far-too-premature predictions for every game of the Big Ten Tournament, but, like the last couple years, I'm not even going to try to do that this year until the seeds are more finalized.  However, here are the dates/times/TV schedule for the Big Ten Tournament (and a link to the bracket), which will be in Washington, DC.  All times are Eastern.

Wednesday March 8 – First Round

(12) vs. (13) (4:30 p.m. ESPN2)

(11) vs. (14) Rutgers (7 p.m. BTN)

Thursday March 9 – Second Round

(8) vs. (9) (Noon, BTN)

(5) vs. (12)/(13) (2:30 p.m., BTN)

(7) vs. (10) (6:30 p.m., ESPN2)

(6) vs. (11)/(14) (9 p.m., ESPN2)

Friday March 10 – Quarterfinals

(1) vs. (8)/(9) (Noon, ESPN)

(4) vs. (5)/(12)/(13) (2:30 p.m., ESPN)

(2) vs. (7)/(10) (6:30 p.m., BTN)

(3) vs. (6)/(11)/(14) (9 p.m., BTN)

Saturday March 11 – Semifinals

(1)/(8)/(9) vs. (4)/(5)/(12)/(13) (1 p.m., CBS)

(2)/(7)/(10) vs. (3)/(6)/(11)/(14) (3:30 p.m., CBS)

Sunday March 12 – Finals

(1)/(4)/(5)/(8)/(9)/(12)/(13) vs. (2)/(3)/(6)/(7)/(10)/(11)/(14) (3 p.m., CBS)

NCAA Tournament Resumes for All 14 Big Ten Teams

Here is each Big Ten team's NCAA Tournament resume, including each team's RPI (based on ESPN's daily RPI), BPI (based on ESPN's BPI rankings), overall record against D-1 opponents, "good" wins (wins against RPI Top 50 teams or, if none, the team's best win), "bad" losses (losses against teams with an RPI of 101+ or, if none, the team's worst loss).  An * means the game was played on a neutral court, and for the "good" wins and "bad" losses, the team's current RPI is identified.  I have categorized the teams by "In," "Bubble," or "Out," which is my best guess, based on what I know right now, as to whether each team is a lock for the NCAA Tournament, is on the bubble, or is out.  I have also added a record vs. the RPI Top 50 and Top 100.  For the "In" and "Out" teams, I'm putting them in order based on RPI ranking.  For the "Bubble" teams, I am putting them in order based on what I think their likelihood of making the NCAA Tournament is (which may or may not fall in line with the RPI ranking).

In

1.  Minnesota

RPI:  15

BPI:  39

Overall record:  22-7

Record vs. RPI Top 50:  7-5

Record vs. RPI Top 100:  13-7

Good wins:  7 (at Purdue (20), at Maryland (28), Arkansas (29), UT Arlington (34), Michigan (46), Vanderbilt* (47), at Northwestern (50))

Bad losses:  None (at Penn State (81))

2.  Purdue

RPI:  20

BPI:  11

Overall record:  23-6

Record vs. RPI Top 50:  6-4

Record vs. RPI Top 100:  13-6

Good wins:  6 (Notre Dame* (21), at Maryland (28), Wisconsin (30), at Michigan State (40), Michigan State (40), Northwestern (50))

Bad losses:  None (at Iowa (95))

3.  Maryland

RPI:  28

BPI:  49

Overall record:  22-7

Record vs. RPI Top 50:  4-3

Record vs. RPI Top 100:  14-7

Good wins:  4 (at Minnesota (15), Oklahoma State (26), at Michigan (46), at Northwestern (50))

Bad losses:  None (Iowa (95))

4.  Wisconsin

RPI:  30

BPI:  20

Overall record:  22-7

Record vs. RPI Top 50:  3-6

Record vs. RPI Top 100:  13-7

Good wins:  3 (at Minnesota (15), Maryland (28), Michigan (46))

Bad losses:  None (at Ohio State (72))

Bubble

5.  Northwestern

RPI:  50

BPI:  43

Overall record:  20-9

Record vs. RPI Top 50:  3-6

Record vs. RPI Top 100:  9-9

Good wins:  3 (Dayton* (22), at Wisconsin (30), Wake Forest (44))

Bad losses:  None (at Indiana (87))

6.  Michigan State

RPI:  40

BPI:  47

Overall record:  18-11

Record vs. RPI Top 50:  6-7

Record vs. RPI Top 100:  11-10

Good wins:  6 (Minnesota (15), at Minnesota (15), Wisconsin (30), Wichita State* (41), Michigan (46), Northwestern (50))

Bad losses:  1 (Northeastern (126))

7.  Michigan

RPI:  46

BPI:  24

Overall record:  19-10

Record vs. RPI Top 50:  4-7

Record vs. RPI Top 100:  11-10

Good wins:  4 (SMU* (18), Purdue (20), Wisconsin (30), Michigan State (40))

Bad losses:  None (at Iowa (95))

Out

8.  Illinois

RPI:  56

BPI:  61

Overall record:  17-12

Record vs. RPI Top 50:  4-8

Record vs. RPI Top 100:  9-12

Good wins:  3 (VCU* (23), Michigan (46), Northwestern (50), at Northwestern (50))

Bad losses:  None (at Indiana (87))

9.  Ohio State

RPI:  72

BPI:  59

Overall record:  16-13

Record vs. RPI Top 50:  4-9

Record vs. RPI Top 100:  7-12

Good wins:  4 (Minnesota (15), Wisconsin (30), Michigan State (40), at Michigan (46))

Bad losses:  1 (Florida Atlantic (287))

10.  Penn State

RPI:  81

BPI:  88

Overall record:  14-15

Record vs. RPI Top 50:  3-8

Record vs. RPI Top 100:  6-12

Good wins:  3 (Minnesota (15), Maryland (28), Michigan State* (40))

Bad losses:  3 (George Mason (113), Albany (145), Rutgers (166))

11.  Nebraska

RPI:  85

BPI:  105

Overall record:  12-16

Record vs. RPI Top 50:  3-10

Record vs. RPI Top 100:  7-14

Good wins:  3 (Purdue (20), Dayton* (22), at Maryland (28))

Bad losses:  2 (at Rutgers (166), Gardner-Webb (202))

12.  Indiana

RPI:  87

BPI:  30

Overall record:  16-13

Record vs. RPI Top 50:  4-10

Record vs. RPI Top 100:  7-12

Good wins:  3 (Kansas* (1), North Carolina (3), Michigan State (40), Northwestern (50))

Bad losses:  1 (at Fort Wayne (168))

13.  Iowa

RPI:  95

BPI:  80

Overall record:  16-13

Record vs. RPI Top 50:  4-8

Record vs. RPI Top 100:  7-11

Good wins:  4 (Purdue (20), at Maryland (28), Iowa State (37), Michigan (46))

Bad losses:  2 (Memphis* (112), Omaha (143))

14.  Rutgers

RPI:  166

BPI:  137

Overall record:  13-16

Record vs. RPI Top 50:  0-11

Record vs. RPI Top 100:  2-16

Good wins:  None (at Penn State (81))

Bad losses:  None (Iowa (95), at Iowa (95))