Updated Big Ten Tournament Seeding Predictions and NCAA Tournament Resumes

This weekend, nothing terribly exciting happened in the Big Ten.  Purdue knocked off Michigan State at home, Illinois's NIT chances got a solid boost with a road win at Iowa, Northwestern held on to beat Rutgers at home, Nebraska all but killed any slim hope Ohio State had of going to the NCAA Tournament, Wisconsin took down Maryland in a marquee matchup, and Minnesota beat Michigan in OT.

With its win over Rutgers on Saturday, Northwestern has won 20 games for only the third time in its history.  With one more win, Northwestern will not only set a program record for overall victories, but it will also clinch a first winning record in Big Ten conference play for the 21st time ever and for the first time since the 1967-68 season.  On the other hand, with one more loss, Rutgers will clinch the #14 seed in the Big Ten Tournament.

Tonight, Pursue has a trap game at Penn State, Northwestern has a trap game at Illinois, and IU travels to Iowa for a must-win road game.

Next games

Here are tonight's games (all times Eastern):

-Purdue at Penn State (6:00 p.m.; BTN)

-Northwestern at Illinois (8:00 p.m.; BTN)

-Indiana at Iowa (9:00 p.m.; ESPN)

Current Standings

Here are the current standings, with the conference record, each team's remaining Big Ten games, and my predictions.  I will try to update these after every day or every couple days of games.

1 (tie).  Wisconsin (11-3):  at Ohio State (W); at Michigan State (W); Iowa (W); Minnesota (W)

1 (tie).  Purdue (11-3):  at Penn State (W); at Michigan (W); Indiana (W); at Northwestern (L)

3.  Maryland (10-4):  Minnesota (W); Iowa (W); at Rutgers (W); Michigan State (W)

4.  Northwestern (9-5):  at Illinois (W); at Indiana (L); Michigan (W); Purdue (W)

5 (tie).  Michigan State (8-6):  Nebraska (W); Wisconsin (L); at Illinois (W); at Maryland (L)

5 (tie).  Minnesota (8-6):  at Maryland (L); Penn State (W); Nebraska (W); at Wisconsin (L)

7.  Michigan (7-7):  at Rutgers (W); Purdue (L); at Northwestern (L); at Nebraska (L)

8 (tie).  Iowa (6-8):  Indiana (L); at Maryland (L); at Wisconsin (L); Penn State (W)

8 (tie).  Penn State (6-8):  Purdue (L); at Minnesota (L); Ohio State (W); at Iowa (L)

8 (tie).  Nebraska (6-8):  at Michigan State (L); Illinois (W); at Minnesota (L); Michigan (W)

11.  Indiana (5-9):  at Iowa (W); Northwestern (W); at Purdue (L); at Ohio State (W)

12.  Illinois (5-9):  Northwestern (L); at Nebraska (L); Michigan State (L); at Rutgers (L)

13.  Ohio State (5-10):  Wisconsin (L); at Penn State (L); Indiana (L)

14.  Rutgers (2-13):  Michigan (L); Maryland (L); Illinois (W)

Projected Big Ten Tournament Seeding

Given my predictions and Big Ten tiebreaking rules, here is how the Big Ten Tournament seeds should fall into place (bold means a team has clinched that seed):

1.  Wisconsin (15-3)

2.  Purdue (14-4) (has tiebreaker over Maryland based on 1-0 head-to-head record)

3.  Maryland (14-4)  

4.  Northwestern (12-6)

5.  Michigan State (10-8) (has tiebreaker over Minnesota based on 2-0 head-to-head record)

6.  Minnesota (10-8)

7.  Michigan (8-10) (both Michigan and Nebraska would have 2-1 record vs. other two teams, with IU third with 0-3 record, but Michigan would have tiebreaker over Nebraska based on better record vs. Wisconsin)

8.  Nebraska (8-10)

9.  Indiana (8-10)

10.  Iowa (7-11) (would have tiebreaker over PSU based on 1-0 head-to-head record)

11.  Penn State (7-11)

12.  Illinois (5-13) (has tiebreaker over OSU based on 1-0 head-to-head record)

13.  Ohio State (5-13)

14.  Rutgers (3-15)

Big Ten Tournament Schedule

In the past, I have also included far-too-premature predictions for every game of the Big Ten Tournament, but, like the last couple years, I'm not even going to try to do that this year until the seeds are more finalized.  However, here are the dates/times/TV schedule for the Big Ten Tournament (and a link to the bracket), which will be in Washington, DC.  All times are Eastern.

Wednesday March 8 – First Round

(12) vs. (13) (4:30 p.m. ESPN2)

(11) vs. (14) (7 p.m. BTN)

Thursday March 9 – Second Round

(8) vs. (9) (Noon, BTN)

(5) vs. (12)/(13) (2:30 p.m., BTN)

(7) vs. (10) (6:30 p.m., ESPN2)

(6) vs. (11)/(14) (9 p.m., ESPN2)

Friday March 10 – Quarterfinals

(1) vs. (8)/(9) (Noon, ESPN)

(4) vs. (5)/(12)/(13) (2:30 p.m., ESPN)

(2) vs. (7)/(10) (6:30 p.m., BTN)

(3) vs. (6)/(11)/(14) (9 p.m., BTN)

Saturday March 11 – Semifinals

(1)/(8)/(9) vs. (4)/(5)/(12)/(13) (1 p.m., CBS)

(2)/(7)/(10) vs. (3)/(6)/(11)/(14) (3:30 p.m., CBS)

Sunday March 12 – Finals

(1)/(4)/(5)/(8)/(9)/(12)/(13) vs. (2)/(3)/(6)/(7)/(10)/(11)/(14) (3 p.m., CBS)

NCAA Tournament Resumes for All 14 Big Ten Teams

Here is each Big Ten team's NCAA Tournament resume, including each team's RPI (based on ESPN's daily RPI), BPI (based on ESPN's BPI rankings), overall record against D-1 opponents, "good" wins (wins against RPI Top 50 teams or, if none, the team's best win), "bad" losses (losses against teams with an RPI of 101+ or, if none, the team's worst loss).  An * means the game was played on a neutral court, and for the "good" wins and "bad" losses, the team's current RPI is identified.  I have categorized the teams by "In," "Bubble," or "Out," which is my best guess, based on what I know right now, as to whether each team is a lock for the NCAA Tournament, is on the bubble, or is out.  I have also added a record vs. the RPI Top 50 and Top 100.  For the "In" and "Out" teams, I'm putting them in order based on RPI ranking.  For the "Bubble" teams, I am putting them in order based on what I think their likelihood of making the NCAA Tournament is (which may or may not fall in line with the RPI ranking).

In

1.  Maryland

RPI:  17

BPI:  40

Overall record:  22-5

Record vs. RPI Top 50:  3-2

Record vs. RPI Top 100:  13-5

Good wins:  3 (at Minnesota (22), Oklahoma State (29), at Northwestern (38))

Bad losses:  None (at Penn State (74))

2.  Purdue

RPI:  19

BPI:  9

Overall record:  22-5

Record vs. RPI Top 50:  6-3

Record vs. RPI Top 100:  11-4

Good wins:  6 (at Maryland (17), Notre Dame* (24), Wisconsin (25), Northwestern (38), at Michigan State (41), Michigan State (41))

Bad losses:  1 (at Iowa (115))

3.  Minnesota

RPI:  22

BPI:  44

Overall record:  20-7

Record vs. RPI Top 50:  5-5

Record vs. RPI Top 100:  10-7

Good wins:  5 (at Purdue (19), Arkansas (33), UT Arlington (36), at Northwestern (38), Vanderbilt* (48))

Bad losses:  None (at Ohio State (78))

4.  Wisconsin

RPI:  25

BPI:  16

Overall record:  23-5

Record vs. RPI Top 50:  3-4

Record vs. RPI Top 100:  13-5

Good wins:  3 (Maryland (17), at Minnesota (22), Tennessee* (49))

Bad losses:  None (at Michigan (53))

5.  Northwestern

RPI:  38

BPI:  42

Overall record:  20-7

Record vs. RPI Top 50:  3-6

Record vs. RPI Top 100:  8-7

Good wins:  3 (at Wisconsin (25), Dayton* (27), Wake Forest (37))

Bad losses:  None (Illinois (63))

Bubble

6.  Michigan State

RPI:  41

BPI:  52

Overall record:  16-11

Record vs. RPI Top 50:  4-6

Record vs. RPI Top 100:  8-10

Good wins:  4 (Minnesota (22), at Minnesota (22), Northwestern (38), Wichita State* (45))

Bad losses:  1 (Northeastern (141))

7.  Michigan

RPI:  53

BPI:  24

Overall record:  17-10

Record vs. RPI Top 50:  3-7

Record vs. RPI Top 100:  9-9

Good wins:  3 (SMU* (21), Wisconsin (25), Michigan State (41))

Bad losses:  1 (at Iowa (115))

8.  Indiana

RPI:  90

BPI:  29

Overall record:  15-12

Record vs. RPI Top 50:  3-8

Record vs. RPI Top 100:  6-11

Good wins:  3 (Kansas* (1), North Carolina (5), Michigan State (41))

Bad losses:  1 (at Fort Wayne (166))

Out

9.  Illinois

RPI:  63

BPI:  72

Overall record:  15-12

Record vs. RPI Top 50:  2-7

Record vs. RPI Top 100:  5-12

Good wins:  2 (VCU* (26), at Northwestern (38))

Bad losses:  None (at Indiana (90))

10.  Nebraska

RPI:  70

BPI:  97

Overall record:  12-14

Record vs. RPI Top 50:  3-8

Record vs. RPI Top 100:  6-11

Good wins:  3 (at Maryland (17), Purdue (19), Dayton* (27))

Bad losses:  3 (at Iowa (115), at Rutgers (144), Gardner-Webb (217))

11.  Penn State

RPI:  74

BPI:  90

Overall record:  14-13

Record vs. RPI Top 50:  3-5

Record vs. RPI Top 100:  6-10

Good wins:  3 (Maryland (17), Minnesota (22), Michigan State* (41))

Bad losses:  3 (George Mason (116), Rutgers (144), Albany (148))

12.  Ohio State

RPI:  78

BPI:  64

Overall record:  15-13

Record vs. RPI Top 50:  2-9

Record vs. RPI Top 100:  6-11

Good wins:  2 (Minnesota (22), Michigan State (41))

Bad losses:  2 (at Iowa (115), Florida Atlantic (291))

13.  Iowa

RPI:  115

BPI:  94

Overall record:  14-13

Record vs. RPI Top 50:  2-8

Record vs. RPI Top 100:  5-11

Good wins:  2 (Purdue (19), Iowa State (43))

Bad losses:  2 (Memphis* (109), Omaha (176))

14.  Rutgers

RPI:  144

BPI:  141

Overall record:  13-15

Record vs. RPI Top 50:  0-10

Record vs. RPI Top 100:  2-13

Good wins:  None (Nebraska (70))

Bad losses:  2 (Iowa (115), at Iowa (115))