Super? Bowl

I'll admit it. I'm excited for Sunday's Super Bowl. I think the two best teams are playing, which is the first time in a while I can remember that happening, and I think Super Bowl XLIV is going to be a great game.

To confirm my suspicions, I took a look at Super Bowl and playoff history, and I was right, kind of. While it has been a long time since two No. 1 seeds have made it to the Super Bowl (and that is a relatively rare occurrence), my hope for a close game may be just a pipe dream.

The last time two No. 1 seeds met in the Super Bowl was when Dallas and Buffalo met in Super Bowl XXVIII after the 1993 season, with the Cowboys trouncing the Bills 30-13 (and Buffalo losing their fourth consecutive Super Bowl -- Muthafuckalo indeed). Other than that, two No. 1 seeds have met only 7 other times:
-Super Bowl XXVI (Redskins 37 Bills 24)
-Super Bowl XXIV (49ers 55 Broncos 10)
-Super Bowl XIX (49ers 38 Dolphins 16)
-Super Bowl XVIII (Raiders 38 Redskins 9)
-Super Bowl XVI (49ers 26 Bengals 21)
-Super Bowl XII (Cowboys 27 Broncos 10)
-Super Bowl XI (Raiders 32 Vikings 14)

When two No. 1 seeds have met, the average score is 35.4 to 14.6. As you can see, only one of those games had a margin of victory of less than 13 points, and a 1 vs. 1 matchup provided the most lopsided result in Super Bowl history (the 45-point beat down administered by the 49ers in Super Bowl XXIV). The Saints have history on their side, as the NFC is 6-2 in 1 vs. 1 Super Bowls (and holds a 29.5-20.5 margin in average points scored in 1 vs. 1 games). Then again, the AFC was horrendous for a 15-year span, winning only one Super Bowl between XV and XXXII (the aforementioned Raiders victory in Super Bowl XVIII).

With that, my prediction is: Saints 35 Colts 31 Ditka 412.

(A note: Before the 1975 season, there was no real seeding system for the NFL playoffs, as the home teams were decided based on a yearly rotation and, thus, there was not necessarily any home-field advantage for the best teams. Thus, I excluded any Super Bowls before the 1975-76 season (i.e., Super Bowl X). From what I could tell, two pre-1975 Super Bowls pitted the best teams from each league against each other: Super Bowl I (Packers 35 Chiefs 10) and Super Bowl VII (Dolphins 14 Redskins 7). If those games are added to the mix, then the average score would be 33.2 to 13.4.)