Big Ten Tournament Seeding Predictions

I apologize for not posting a Tuesday Top Ten yesterday.  I was too busy with work, shoveling snow, buying more salt to put on the sidewalk, going to the grocery store, and watching my Hoosiers once again lose to Wisconsin in Madison.  It's tough to beat a Top 5 opponent in their arena without one of your top two players and when you shoot 20 fewer free throws than your opponent.

Speaking of college basketball, with less than a month from March, we are at the halfway point in the Big Ten conference season.  With the additions of Maryland and Rutgers this year, the Big Ten is now at 14 teams, which means the Big Ten Tournament will have a new format, adding an extra day.  The 11-14 seeds play in the first round, with the winner of the 12/13 game playing the 5 seed and the winner of the 11/14 game playing the 6 seed in what used to be the first round.  Strange days have found us.

The Big Ten has been pretty tough so far this season.  Last year, the league had three Elite Eight teams (Wisconsin, Michigan, and Michigan State), and while I would be surprised if the same thing happened this year, it's not entirely out of the realm of possibility.  Wisconsin is the clear favorite (yet somehow lost to Rutgers), and is two up in the loss column on several teams tied for second, which, until last night, included my Hoosiers, who have been a pleasant surprise (last night notwithstanding).  Maryland has been a nice addition to the league.  Rutgers, not so much.  Ohio State has done about what it was expected to do thus far.  Michigan and Michigan State have kind of underperformed, but are still both very dangerous.  Meanwhile, Iowa and Nebraska, both NCAA tournament teams from last year, have had their struggles.  Purdue has played decently in league play, but lost to North Florida and Gardner-Webb at home in December.  Minnesota has been a disaster.  Illinois has been hurt by injuries.  Penn State and Northwestern are, well, Penn State and Northwestern.

Here are the current standings, with the conference record, each team's remaining games, and my predictions.  I will try to update these after every day or every couple days of games.

1.  Wisconsin (8-1):  Northwestern (W), at Nebraska (W), Illinois (W), at PSU (W), Minnesota (W), at Maryland (L), MSU (W), at Minnesota (W), at OSU (L)

2 (tie).  Maryland (6-3):  PSU (W), at Iowa (W), IU (W), at PSU (W), Nebraska (W), Wisconsin (W), Michigan (W), at Rutgers (W), at Nebraska (W)

2 (tie).  Ohio State (6-3):  at Purdue (W), at Rutgers (W), PSU (W), at MSU (L), at Michigan (L), Nebraska (W), Purdue (W), at PSU (W), Wisconsin (W)

2 (tie).  Michigan State (6-3):  Illinois (W), at Northwestern (W), OSU (W), at Michigan (L), at Illinois (W), Minnesota (W), at Wisconsin (L), Purdue (W), at IU (L)

2 (tie).  Purdue (6-3):  OSU (L), at Minnesota (L), at Rutgers (W), Nebraska (W), at IU (L), Rutgers (W), at OSU (L), at MSU (L), Illinois (W)

6 (tie).  Indiana (6-4):  Michigan (W), at Maryland (L), Minnesota (W), Purdue (W), at Rutgers (W), at Northwestern (W), Iowa (W), MSU (W)

6 (tie).  Michigan (6-4):  Iowa (W), at IU (L), at Illinois (W), MSU (W), OSU (W), at Maryland (L), at Northwestern (W), Rutgers (W)

8.  Iowa (4-4):  at Michigan (L), Maryland (L), Minnesota (W), at Northwestern (W), Rutgers (W), at Nebraska (L), Illinois (W), at PSU (W), at IU (L), Northwestern (W)

9 (tie).  Illinois (5-5):  at MSU (L), Michigan (L), at Wisconsin (L), MSU (L), at Iowa (L), Northwestern (W), Nebraska (W), at Purdue (L)

9 (tie).  Nebraska (5-5):  at PSU (W), Wisconsin (L), at Purdue (L), at Maryland (L), Iowa (W), at OSU (L), at Illinois (L), Maryland (L)

11.  Minnesota (3-7):  Purdue (W), at Iowa (L), at IU (L), Northwestern (W), at Wisconsin (L), at MSU (L), Wisconsin (L), PSU (W)

12.  Penn State (2-7):  at Maryland (L), Nebraska (L), at OSU (L), Maryland (L), Wisconsin (L), at Northwestern (L), Iowa (L), OSU (L), at Minnesota (L)

13.  Rutgers (2-9):  OSU (L), Purdue (L), at Iowa (L), IU (L), at Purdue (L), Maryland (L), at Michigan (L)

14.  Northwestern (1-8):  at Wisconsin (L), MSU (L), Iowa (L), at Minnesota (L), PSU (W), IU (L), at Illinois (L), Michigan (L), at Iowa (L)

Given my predictions and Big Ten tiebreaking rules, here is how the Big Ten Tournament seeds should fall into place:

1.  Wisconsin (15-3) (would have tiebreaker over Maryland based on 1-0 record vs. Maryland)

2.  Maryland (15-3)

3.  Ohio State (13-5) (would have tiebreaker over IU based on better record vs. Wisconsin and Maryland)

4.  Indiana (13-5)

5.  Michigan State (12-6) (would have tiebreaker over Michigan based on better record vs. OSU and IU)

6.  Michigan (12-6)

7.  Purdue (10-8) (has tiebreaker over Iowa based on 1-0 record vs. Iowa)

8.  Iowa (10-8)

9.  Illinois (7-11) (would have tiebreaker over Nebraska based on better record vs. Wisconsin and Maryland)

10.  Nebraska (7-11)

11.  Minnesota (6-12)

12.  Northwestern (2-16) (has tiebreaker over Penn State and Rutgers based on 2-0 record vs. Penn State and Rutgers, while Penn State and Rutgers have 1-2 record against other two schools)

13.  Rutgers (2-16) (has tiebreaker over Penn State based on better record vs. Wisconsin and Maryland)

14.  Penn State (2-16)

In the past, I have also included far-too-premature predictions for every game of the Big Ten Tournament, but, like last year, I'm not even going to try to do that this year until the seeds are announced.  However, here are the dates/times/TV schedule for the Big Ten Tournament (and a link to the bracket), which will be in Chicago.  All times are Central.

Wednesday March 11 – First Round

(12) vs. (13) (3:30 p.m. ESPN2)

(11) vs. (14) (6 p.m. BTN)

Thursday March 12 – Second Round

(8) vs. (9) (11 a.m., BTN)

(5) vs. (12)/(13) (1:30 p.m., BTN)

(7) vs. (10) (5:30 p.m., ESPN2)

(6) vs. (11)/(14) (8 p.m., ESPN2)

Friday March 13 – Quarterfinals

(1) vs. (8)/(9) (11 a.m., ESPN)

(4) vs. (5)/(12)/(13) (1:30 p.m., ESPN)

(2) vs. (7)/(10) (5:30 p.m., BTN)

(3) vs. (6)/(11)/(14) (8 p.m., BTN)

Saturday March 14 – Semifinals

(1)/(8)/(9) vs. (4)/(5)/(12)/(13) (12 p.m., CBS)

(2)/(7)/(10) vs. (3)/(6)/(11)/(14) (2:30 p.m., CBS)

Sunday March 15 – Finals

(1)/(4)/(5)/(8)/(9)/(12)/(13) vs. (2)/(3)/(6)/(7)/(10)/(11)/(14) (2:30 p.m., CBS)