Updated Big Ten Tournament Seeding Predictions and NCAA Tournament Resumes

Last night, Wisconsin held off a pesky Penn State team in Happy Valley, 55-47, to improve to 24-2 overall and 12-1 in the Big Ten.  With two more victories, the Badgers will have clinched at least a share of the Big Ten title.  In the other game, Northwestern did what Illinois and Purdue couldn't:  beat Minnesota in Williams Arena.  It was the Wildcats' second win in a row, and it was the second game in a row in which the Golden Gophers have given up at least 15 3-pointers.  Minnesota has now drifted above 100 in the RPI, which means they are now categorized as a "bad loss."  Barring a miraculous run to end the Big Ten regular season (which includes two games against Wisconsin and one at Michigan State) or an even-more miraculous Big Ten Tournament title win, the Gophers' NCAA Tournament chances have all but died.

Tonight, it is retribution time for the Hoosiers.

On the slate tonight:

-Purdue at Indiana (7:00 p.m. EST, ESPN)

-Nebraska at Maryland (7:00 p.m. EST, BTN)

-Rutgers at Iowa (8:00 p.m. EST, ESPNU)

Current Standings

Here are the current standings, with the conference record, each team's remaining games, and my predictions.  I will try to update these after every day or every couple days of games.

1.  Wisconsin (12-1):  Minnesota (W), at Maryland (L), MSU (W), at Minnesota (W), at OSU (L)

2 (tie).  Maryland (9-4):  Nebraska (W), Wisconsin (W), Michigan (W), at Rutgers (W), at Nebraska (W)

2 (tie).  Purdue (9-4):  at IU (L), Rutgers (W), at OSU (L), at MSU (L), Illinois (W)

2 (tie).  Michigan State (9-4):  at Illinois (W), Minnesota (W), at Wisconsin (L), Purdue (W), at IU (L)

5 (tie).  Indiana (8-5):  Purdue (W), at Rutgers (W), at Northwestern (W), Iowa (W), MSU (W)

5 (tie).  Ohio State (8-5):  at Michigan (L), Nebraska (W), Purdue (W), at PSU (W), Wisconsin (W)

7.  Illinois (7-6):  MSU (L), at Iowa (L), Northwestern (W), Nebraska (W), at Purdue (L)

8.  Iowa (6-6):  Rutgers (W), at Nebraska (L), Illinois (W), at PSU (W), at IU (L), Northwestern (W)

9.  Michigan (6-8):  OSU (W), at Maryland (L), at Northwestern (W), Rutgers (W)

10.  Nebraska (5-8):  at Maryland (L), Iowa (W), at OSU (L), at Illinois (L), Maryland (L)

11.  Minnesota (5-9):  at Wisconsin (L), at MSU (L), Wisconsin (L), PSU (W)

12.  Northwestern (3-10):  PSU (W), IU (L), at Illinois (L), Michigan (L), at Iowa (L)

13.  Penn State (3-11):  at Northwestern (L), Iowa (L), OSU (L), at Minnesota (L)

14.  Rutgers (2-11):  at Iowa (L), IU (L), at Purdue (L), Maryland (L), at Michigan (L)

Projected Big Ten Tournament Seeding

Given my predictions and Big Ten tiebreaking rules, here is how the Big Ten Tournament seeds should fall into place:

1.  Wisconsin (15-3)

2.  Maryland (14-4)

3.  Indiana (13-5)

4.  Michigan State (12-6) (has tiebreaker over OSU based on 1-0 record vs. OSU)

5.  Ohio State (12-6)

6.  Purdue (11-7)

7.  Iowa (10-8)

8.  Illinois (9-9) (would have tiebreaker over Michigan based on better record vs. Maryland)

9.  Michigan (9-9)

10.  Nebraska (6-12) (would have tiebreaker over Minnesota based on better combined record vs. MSU and OSU than Minnesota)

11.  Minnesota (6-12)

12.  Northwestern (4-14)

13.  Penn State (3-15)

14.  Rutgers (2-16)

Big Ten Tournament Schecule

Here are the dates/times/TV schedule for the Big Ten Tournament (and a link to the bracket), which will be in Chicago.  All times are Central.

Wednesday March 11 – First Round

(12) vs. (13) (3:30 p.m. ESPN2)

(11) vs. (14) (6 p.m. BTN)

Thursday March 12 – Second Round

(8) vs. (9) (11 a.m., BTN)

(5) vs. (12)/(13) (1:30 p.m., BTN)

(7) vs. (10) (5:30 p.m., ESPN2)

(6) vs. (11)/(14) (8 p.m., ESPN2)

Friday March 13 – Quarterfinals

(1) vs. (8)/(9) (11 a.m., ESPN)

(4) vs. (5)/(12)/(13) (1:30 p.m., ESPN)

(2) vs. (7)/(10) (5:30 p.m., BTN)

(3) vs. (6)/(11)/(14) (8 p.m., BTN)

Saturday March 14 – Semifinals

(1)/(8)/(9) vs. (4)/(5)/(12)/(13) (12 p.m., CBS)

(2)/(7)/(10) vs. (3)/(6)/(11)/(14) (2:30 p.m., CBS)

Sunday March 15 – Finals

(1)/(4)/(5)/(8)/(9)/(12)/(13) vs. (2)/(3)/(6)/(7)/(10)/(11)/(14) (2:30 p.m., CBS)

NCAA Tournament Resumes for All 14 Big Ten Teams

Here is each Big Ten team's updated NCAA Tournament resume.  From top to bottom, I will list each team's RPI (based on ESPN's daily RPI), "good" wins (wins against RPI Top 50 teams or, if none, the team's best win), "bad" losses (losses against teams with an RPI of 101+ or, if none, the team's worst loss).  An * means the game was played on a neutral court, and for the "good" wins and "bad" losses, the team's current RPI is identified.  Also, I have categorized the teams by "In," "Bubble," or "Out," which is my best guess, based on what I know right now, as to whether each team is a lock for the NCAA Tournament, is on the bubble, or is out.

In

1.  Wisconsin

RPI:  6

Overall record:  24-2

Good wins:  5 (Oklahoma* (15), Georgetown* (17), Indiana (28), Boise State (39), Illinois (42))

Bad losses: 1 (at Rutgers (135))

2.  Maryland

RPI:  10

Overall record:  21-5

Good wins:  5 (Iowa State* (11), Indiana (28), at Oklahoma State (29), Michigan State (33), at Michigan State (33))

Bad losses:  None (at Iowa (56))

3.  Indiana

RPI:  28

Overall record:  18-8

Good wins:  6 (Maryland (10), Butler* (23), SMU (24), Ohio State (35), at Illinois (42), Pittsburgh (46))

Bad losses:  None (Eastern Washington (74))

4.  Michigan State

RPI:  33

Overall record:  18-8

Good wins:  2 (Indiana (28), Ohio State (35))

Bad losses:  2 (at Nebraska (112), Texas Southern (157))

5.  Ohio State

RPI:  35

Overall record:  19-7

Good wins:  3 (Maryland (10), Indiana (28), Illinois (42))

Bad losses:  None (at Purdue (69))

Bubble

6.  Illinois

RPI:  42

Overall record:  17-9

Good wins:  3 (Maryland (10), Baylor* (13), at Michigan State (33))

Bad losses:  1 (at Minnesota (102), at Nebraska (112))

7.  Iowa

RPI:  56

Overall record:  15-10

Good wins:  4 (Maryland (10), at North Carolina (12), at Ohio State (35), Ohio State (35))

Bad losses:  1 (at Northwestern (127))

8.  Purdue

RPI:  69

Overall record:  17-9

Good wins:  3 (Indiana (28), Ohio State (35), NC State (43))

Bad losses:  5 (Kansas State* (101), at Minnesota (102), at Vanderbilt (110), Gardner-Webb (163), North Florida (191))

Out

9.  Michigan

RPI:  90

Overall record:  12-13

Good wins:  1 (Illinois (42))

Bad losses:  2 (Eastern Michigan (165), NJIT (173))

10.  Penn State

RPI:  97

Overall record:  15-12

Good wins:  None (George Washington (84))

Bad losses:  2 (at Rutgers (135), Charlotte* (184))

11.  Minnesota

RPI:  102

Overall record:  15-11

Good wins:  2 (Georgia* (41), Illinois (42))

Bad losses:  2 (at Nebraska (112), Northwestern (127))

12.  Nebraska

RPI:  112

Overall record:  13-12

Good wins:  3 (Michigan State (33), Illinois (42), Cincinnati (49))

Bad losses:  4 (at Minnesota (102), Creighton (130), Incarnate Word (160), at Hawaii (176))

13.  Northwestern

RPI:  127

Overall record:  12-14

Good wins:  None (Iowa (56))

Bad losses:  2 (Georgia Tech (104), at Nebraska (112))

14.  Rutgers

RPI:  135

Overall record:  10-16

Good wins:  1 (Wisconsin (6))

Bad losses:  5 (at Minnesota (102), at Nebraska (112), Northwestern (127), St. Francis (PA) (183), St. Peter's (227))