Updated Big Ten Tournament Seeding Predictions and NCAA Tournament Resumes

Just when you think you've figured a team out, they go and lose to Minnesota at home.  At least that's what Michigan State did last night, perhaps looking ahead to Sunday's matchup in Madison with the Badgers.  The loss drops Sparty from a projected 3-seed in the Big Ten Tournament to a projected 6-seed.  With the win, the Gophers have assured themselves of a winning overall record, which means they will qualify for the NIT. 

Meanwhile, Ohio State demolished Nebraska and Purdue held off Rutgers at home.  With the loss, Rutgers has assured that it can be seeded no better than #13 in the Big Ten Tournament.  The Boilers have benefitted from a relatively easy conference schedule.  With 14 teams in the league now, each team plays 5 teams twice and 8 teams once.  Purdue has played 9 of their 15 conference games thus far (and will play 10 of their 18 total conference games) against the bottom half of the Big Ten.  (By contrast, IU will only play 8 games against the bottom half of the Big Ten.)  Overall, Purdue is 8-6 vs. RPI Top 100 teams and 11-3 vs. RPI 101+ teams.  Purdue's RPI is a middling 58 right now.  Against teams with a better RPI, Purdue is a respectable 6-3, but against teams with a worse RPI, Purdue is 13-6.  These are all reasons why they are still on the NCAA Tournament bubble despite being tied for second place in the Big Ten right now.  Also, I should mention, fuck Purdue.

On the slate this weekend:

Saturday

-Michigan at Maryland (12:00 p.m. EST, ESPN)

-Iowa at Penn State (6:00 p.m. EST, ESPNU)

-Northwestern at Illinois (7:00 p.m. EST, BTN)

Sunday

-Michigan State at Wisconsin (4:00 p.m. EST, CBS)

-Purdue at Ohio State (7:30 p.m. EST, BTN)

Current Standings

Here are the current standings, with the conference record, each team's remaining games, and my predictions.  I will try to update these after every day or every couple days of games.

1.  Wisconsin (13-2):  MSU (W), at Minnesota (W), at OSU (L)

2 (tie).  Maryland (11-4):  Michigan (W), at Rutgers (W), at Nebraska (W)

2 (tie).  Purdue (11-4):  at OSU (L), at MSU (L), Illinois (W)

4.  Michigan State (10-5):  at Wisconsin (L), Purdue (W), at IU (L)

5 (tie).  Iowa (9-6):  at PSU (W), at IU (L), Northwestern (W)

5 (tie).  Ohio State (9-6):  Purdue (W), at PSU (W), Wisconsin (W)

7.  Indiana (9-7):  Iowa (W), MSU (W)

8.  Illinois (7-8):  Northwestern (W), Nebraska (W), at Purdue (L)

9.  Michigan (7-8):  at Maryland (L), at Northwestern (W), Rutgers (W)

10.  Minnesota (6-10):  Wisconsin (L), PSU (W)

11.  Northwestern (5-10):  at Illinois (L), Michigan (L), at Iowa (L)

12.  Nebraska (5-11):  at Illinois (L), Maryland (L)

13.  Penn State (3-12):  Iowa (L), OSU (L), at Minnesota (L)

14.  Rutgers (2-14):  Maryland (L), at Michigan (L)

Projected Big Ten Tournament Seeding

Given my predictions and Big Ten tiebreaking rules, here is how the Big Ten Tournament seeds should fall into place:

1.  Wisconsin (15-3)

2.  Maryland (14-4)

3.  Ohio State (12-6) (would have tiebreaker over Purdue based on better record vs. Wisconsin)

4.  Purdue (12-6)

5.  Indiana (11-7) (2-1) (IU would have tiebreaker over MSU based on better record vs. Maryland)

6.  Michigan State (11-7)

7.  Iowa (11-7) (would lose three-way tie with IU and MSU based on 0-2 record vs. other two schools, while IU and MSU have 2-1 vs. other two schools)

8.  Illinois (9-9) (would have tiebreaker over Michigan based on better record vs. Maryland)

9.  Michigan (9-9)

10.  Minnesota (7-11)

11.  Nebraska (5-13) (has tiebreaker over Northwestern based on 1-0 record vs. Northwestern)

12.  Northwestern (5-13)

13.  Penn State (3-15)

14.  Rutgers (2-16)

Big Ten Tournament Schecule

Here are the dates/times/TV schedule for the Big Ten Tournament (and a link to the bracket), which will be in Chicago.  All times are Central.

Wednesday March 11 – First Round

(12) vs. (13) (3:30 p.m. ESPN2)

(11) vs. (14) (6 p.m. BTN)

Thursday March 12 – Second Round

(8) vs. (9) (11 a.m., BTN)

(5) vs. (12)/(13) (1:30 p.m., BTN)

(7) vs. (10) (5:30 p.m., ESPN2)

(6) vs. (11)/(14) (8 p.m., ESPN2)

Friday March 13 – Quarterfinals

(1) vs. (8)/(9) (11 a.m., ESPN)

(4) vs. (5)/(12)/(13) (1:30 p.m., ESPN)

(2) vs. (7)/(10) (5:30 p.m., BTN)

(3) vs. (6)/(11)/(14) (8 p.m., BTN)

Saturday March 14 – Semifinals

(1)/(8)/(9) vs. (4)/(5)/(12)/(13) (12 p.m., CBS)

(2)/(7)/(10) vs. (3)/(6)/(11)/(14) (2:30 p.m., CBS)

Sunday March 15 – Finals

(1)/(4)/(5)/(8)/(9)/(12)/(13) vs. (2)/(3)/(6)/(7)/(10)/(11)/(14) (2:30 p.m., CBS)

NCAA Tournament Resumes for All 14 Big Ten Teams

Here is each Big Ten team's updated NCAA Tournament resume.  From top to bottom, I will list each team's RPI (based on ESPN's daily RPI), "good" wins (wins against RPI Top 50 teams or, if none, the team's best win), "bad" losses (losses against teams with an RPI of 101+ or, if none, the team's worst loss).  An * means the game was played on a neutral court, and for the "good" wins and "bad" losses, the team's current RPI is identified.  Also, I have categorized the teams by "In," "Bubble," or "Out," which is my best guess, based on what I know right now, as to whether each team is a lock for the NCAA Tournament, is on the bubble, or is out.

In

1.  Wisconsin

RPI:  6

Overall record:  25-3

Good wins:  5 (Oklahoma* (16), Georgetown* (23), Indiana (35), Boise State (44), Buffalo (45))

Bad losses: 1 (at Rutgers (149))

2.  Maryland

RPI:  9

Overall record:  23-5

Good wins:  6 (Wisconsin (6), Iowa State* (12), at Oklahoma State (29), Michigan State (32), at Michigan State (32), Indiana (35))

Bad losses:  None (at Illinois (61))

3.  Michigan State

RPI:  32

Overall record:  19-9

Good wins:  2 (Indiana (35), Ohio State (39))

Bad losses:  2 (at Nebraska (123), Texas Southern (159))

4.  Indiana

RPI:  35

Overall record:  19-10

Good wins:  5 (Maryland (9), SMU (17), Butler* (25), Pittsburgh (37), Ohio State (39))

Bad losses:  1 (at Northwestern (110))

5.  Ohio State

RPI:  39

Overall record:  20-8

Good wins:  2 (Maryland (9), Indiana (35))

Bad losses:  None (at Michigan (80))

Bubble

6.  Iowa

RPI:  53

Overall record:  18-10

Good wins:  4 (Maryland (9), at North Carolina (15), at Ohio State (39), Ohio State (39))

Bad losses:  1 (at Northwestern (110))

7.  Purdue

RPI:  58

Overall record:  19-9

Good wins:  4 (Indiana (35), at Indiana (35), NC State (36), Ohio State (39))

Bad losses:  3 (at Vanderbilt (108), Gardner-Webb (160), North Florida (166))

8.  Illinois

RPI:  61

Overall record:  17-11

Good wins:  3 (Maryland (9), Baylor* (10), at Michigan State (32))

Bad losses:  1 (at Nebraska (123))

Out

9.  Minnesota

RPI:  79

Overall record:  16-12

Good wins:  1 (Georgia* (28), Michigan State (32))

Bad losses:  3 (Northwestern (110), at Penn State (111), at Nebraska (123))

10.  Michigan

RPI:  80

Overall record:  13-13

Good wins:  2 (Ohio State (39), Oregon* (42))

Bad losses:  2 (Eastern Michigan (157), NJIT (173))

11.  Northwestern

RPI:  110

Overall record:  14-14

Good wins:  1 (Indiana (35))

Bad losses:  2 (Georgia Tech (113), at Nebraska (123))

12.  Penn State

RPI:  111

Overall record:  15-13

Good wins:  None (Minnesota (79))

Bad losses:  3 (at Northwestern (110), at Rutgers (149), Charlotte* (203))

13.  Nebraska

RPI:  123

Overall record:  13-15

Good wins:  1 (Michigan State (32))

Bad losses:  4 (at Penn State (111), Creighton (119), Incarnate Word (144), at Hawaii (165))

14.  Rutgers

RPI:  149

Overall record:  10-19

Good wins:  1 (Wisconsin (6))

Bad losses:  5 (Northwestern (110), at Penn State (111), at Nebraska (123), St. Francis (PA) (192), St. Peter's (254))