Thursday, February 05, 2015

Updated Big Ten Tournament Seeding Predictions

Well, so much for predictability.  Last night #20 Ohio State -– without second-leading scorer Marc Loving, who was suspended indefinitely Wednesday afternoon -- lost to Purdue 60-58 in that bannerless shithole of an excuse for a basketball arena they call Mackey, while Maryland squeaked by Penn State 64-58 at home.  With the Buckeyes' loss, they slide from a projected 3-seed in the Big Ten Tournament to a projected 6-seed.

On the slate tonight:
Iowa at Michigan (7:00 p.m. EST, ESPN)

Here are the current standings, with the conference record, each team's remaining games, and my predictions.  I will try to update these after every day or every couple days of games.

1.  Wisconsin (8-1):  Northwestern (W), at Nebraska (W), Illinois (W), at PSU (W), Minnesota (W), at Maryland (L), MSU (W), at Minnesota (W), at OSU (L)
2 (tie).  Maryland (7-3):  at Iowa (W), IU (W), at PSU (W), Nebraska (W), Wisconsin (W), Michigan (W), at Rutgers (W), at Nebraska (W)
2 (tie).  Purdue (7-3):  at Minnesota (L), at Rutgers (W), Nebraska (W), at IU (L), Rutgers (W), at OSU (L), at MSU (L), Illinois (W)
4.  Michigan State (6-3):  Illinois (W), at Northwestern (W), OSU (W), at Michigan (L), at Illinois (W), Minnesota (W), at Wisconsin (L), Purdue (W), at IU (L)
5 (tie).  Ohio State (6-4):  at Rutgers (W), PSU (W), at MSU (L), at Michigan (L), Nebraska (W), Purdue (W), at PSU (W), Wisconsin (W)
5 (tie).  Indiana (6-4):  Michigan (W), at Maryland (L), Minnesota (W), Purdue (W), at Rutgers (W), at Northwestern (W), Iowa (W), MSU (W)
5 (tie).  Michigan (6-4):  Iowa (W), at IU (L), at Illinois (W), MSU (W), OSU (W), at Maryland (L), at Northwestern (W), Rutgers (W)
8.  Iowa (4-4):  at Michigan (L), Maryland (L), Minnesota (W), at Northwestern (W), Rutgers (W), at Nebraska (L), Illinois (W), at PSU (W), at IU (L), Northwestern (W)
9 (tie).  Illinois (5-5):  at MSU (L), Michigan (L), at Wisconsin (L), MSU (L), at Iowa (L), Northwestern (W), Nebraska (W), at Purdue (L)
9 (tie).  Nebraska (5-5):  at PSU (W), Wisconsin (L), at Purdue (L), at Maryland (L), Iowa (W), at OSU (L), at Illinois (L), Maryland (L)
11.  Minnesota (3-7):  Purdue (W), at Iowa (L), at IU (L), Northwestern (W), at Wisconsin (L), at MSU (L), Wisconsin (L), PSU (W)
12.  Penn State (2-8):  Nebraska (L), at OSU (L), Maryland (L), Wisconsin (L), at Northwestern (L), Iowa (L), OSU (L), at Minnesota (L)
13.  Rutgers (2-9):  OSU (L), Purdue (L), at Iowa (L), IU (L), at Purdue (L), Maryland (L), at Michigan (L)
14.  Northwestern (1-8):  at Wisconsin (L), MSU (L), Iowa (L), at Minnesota (L), PSU (W), IU (L), at Illinois (L), Michigan (L), at Iowa (L)

Given my predictions and Big Ten tiebreaking rules, here is how the Big Ten Tournament seeds should fall into place:

1.  Wisconsin (15-3) (would have tiebreaker over Maryland based on 1-0 record vs. Maryland)
2.  Maryland (15-3)
3.  Indiana (13-5)
4.  Michigan State (12-6) (would have tiebreaker over Michigan and OSU based on 2-1 record vs. OSU and IU, while Michigan will have 2-2 record over MSU and OSU, and OSU will have 1-2 record vs. Michigan and MSU)
5.  Michigan (12-6)
6.  Ohio State (12-6)
7.  Purdue (11-7)
8.  Iowa (10-8)
9.  Illinois (7-11) (would have tiebreaker over Nebraska based on better record vs. Wisconsin and Maryland)
10.  Nebraska (7-11)
11.  Minnesota (6-12)
12.  Northwestern (2-16) (has tiebreaker over Penn State and Rutgers based on 2-0 record vs. Penn State and Rutgers, while Penn State and Rutgers have 1-2 record against other two schools)
13.  Rutgers (2-16) (has tiebreaker over Penn State based on better record vs. Wisconsin and Maryland)
14.  Penn State (2-16)

In the past, I have also included far-too-premature predictions for every game of the Big Ten Tournament, but, like last year, I'm not even going to try to do that this year until the seeds are announced.  However, here are the dates/times/TV schedule for the Big Ten Tournament (and a link to the bracket), which will be in Chicago.  All times are Central.

Wednesday March 11 – First Round
(12) vs. (13) (3:30 p.m. ESPN2)
(11) vs. (14) (6 p.m. BTN)

Thursday March 12 – Second Round
(8) vs. (9) (11 a.m., BTN)
(5) vs. (12)/(13) (1:30 p.m., BTN)
(7) vs. (10) (5:30 p.m., ESPN2)
(6) vs. (11)/(14) (8 p.m., ESPN2)

Friday March 13 – Quarterfinals
(1) vs. (8)/(9) (11 a.m., ESPN)
(4) vs. (5)/(12)/(13) (1:30 p.m., ESPN)
(2) vs. (7)/(10) (5:30 p.m., BTN)
(3) vs. (6)/(11)/(14) (8 p.m., BTN)

Saturday March 14 – Semifinals
(1)/(8)/(9) vs. (4)/(5)/(12)/(13) (12 p.m., CBS)
(2)/(7)/(10) vs. (3)/(6)/(11)/(14) (2:30 p.m., CBS)

Sunday March 15 – Finals
(1)/(4)/(5)/(8)/(9)/(12)/(13) vs. (2)/(3)/(6)/(7)/(10)/(11)/(14) (2:30 p.m., CBS)

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