Friday, February 06, 2015

Updated Big Ten Tournament Seeding Predictions and NCAA Tournament Resumes

As expected, my predictions are quickly becoming the subject of the basketball gods' jokes.  Last night, Iowa went into Crisler Arena –- which is not necessarily the most intimidating of arenas in the Big Ten -- and beat the tar out of Michigan, 72-54.  Michigan's NCAA Tournament hopes are fading with each loss.  The fact that leading scorer Caris LeVert is out for the rest of the season certainly doesn't help.

For your OCD pleasure, I am adding to this recurring post an NCAA Tournament resume section, which will be at the bottom of the post.

On the slate this weekend:
-Illinois at Michigan State (Noon EST, ESPN)
-Purdue at Minnesota (3:00 p.m. EST, BTN)
-Nebraska at Penn State (4:00 p.m. EST, ESPNU)
-Northwestern at Wisconsin (5:30 p.m. EST, BTN)
-Michigan at Indiana (1:00 p.m. EST, CBS)
-Maryland at Iowa (3:15 p.m. EST, BTN)
-Ohio State at Rutgers (5:30 p.m. EST, BTN)

Current Standings
Here are the current standings, with the conference record, each team's remaining games, and my predictions.  I will try to update these after every day or every couple days of games.

1.  Wisconsin (8-1):  Northwestern (W), at Nebraska (W), Illinois (W), at PSU (W), Minnesota (W), at Maryland (L), MSU (W), at Minnesota (W), at OSU (L)
2 (tie).  Maryland (7-3):  at Iowa (W), IU (W), at PSU (W), Nebraska (W), Wisconsin (W), Michigan (W), at Rutgers (W), at Nebraska (W)
2 (tie).  Purdue (7-3):  at Minnesota (L), at Rutgers (W), Nebraska (W), at IU (L), Rutgers (W), at OSU (L), at MSU (L), Illinois (W)
4.  Michigan State (6-3):  Illinois (W), at Northwestern (W), OSU (W), at Michigan (L), at Illinois (W), Minnesota (W), at Wisconsin (L), Purdue (W), at IU (L)
5 (tie).  Ohio State (6-4):  at Rutgers (W), PSU (W), at MSU (L), at Michigan (L), Nebraska (W), Purdue (W), at PSU (W), Wisconsin (W)
5 (tie).  Indiana (6-4):  Michigan (W), at Maryland (L), Minnesota (W), Purdue (W), at Rutgers (W), at Northwestern (W), Iowa (W), MSU (W)
7.  Iowa (5-4):  Maryland (L), Minnesota (W), at Northwestern (W), Rutgers (W), at Nebraska (L), Illinois (W), at PSU (W), at IU (L), Northwestern (W)
8.  Michigan (6-5):  at IU (L), at Illinois (W), MSU (W), OSU (W), at Maryland (L), at Northwestern (W), Rutgers (W)
9 (tie).  Illinois (5-5):  at MSU (L), Michigan (L), at Wisconsin (L), MSU (L), at Iowa (L), Northwestern (W), Nebraska (W), at Purdue (L)
9 (tie).  Nebraska (5-5):  at PSU (W), Wisconsin (L), at Purdue (L), at Maryland (L), Iowa (W), at OSU (L), at Illinois (L), Maryland (L)
11.  Minnesota (3-7):  Purdue (W), at Iowa (L), at IU (L), Northwestern (W), at Wisconsin (L), at MSU (L), Wisconsin (L), PSU (W)
12.  Penn State (2-8):  Nebraska (L), at OSU (L), Maryland (L), Wisconsin (L), at Northwestern (L), Iowa (L), OSU (L), at Minnesota (L)
13.  Rutgers (2-9):  OSU (L), Purdue (L), at Iowa (L), IU (L), at Purdue (L), Maryland (L), at Michigan (L)
14.  Northwestern (1-8):  at Wisconsin (L), MSU (L), Iowa (L), at Minnesota (L), PSU (W), IU (L), at Illinois (L), Michigan (L), at Iowa (L)

Projected Big Ten Tournament Seeding
Given my predictions and Big Ten tiebreaking rules, here is how the Big Ten Tournament seeds should fall into place:

1.  Wisconsin (15-3) (would have tiebreaker over Maryland based on 1-0 record vs. Maryland)
2.  Maryland (15-3)
3.  Indiana (13-5)
4.  Michigan State (12-6) (would have tiebreaker over OSU based on 1-1 record vs. OSU)
5.  Ohio State (12-6)
6.  Purdue (11-7) (would have tiebreaker over Michigan and Iowa based on 2-0 record vs. Michigan and Iowa; Iowa is next with 1-1 record vs. Michigan and Purdue; Michigan is next with 0-2 record vs. Iowa and Purdue)
7.  Iowa (11-7)
8.  Michigan (11-7)
9.  Illinois (7-11) (would have tiebreaker over Nebraska based on better record vs. Wisconsin and Maryland)
10.  Nebraska (7-11)
11.  Minnesota (6-12)
12.  Northwestern (2-16) (has tiebreaker over Penn State and Rutgers based on 2-0 record vs. Penn State and Rutgers, while Penn State and Rutgers have 1-2 record against other two schools)
13.  Rutgers (2-16) (has tiebreaker over Penn State based on better record vs. Wisconsin and Maryland)
14.  Penn State (2-16)

Big Ten Tournament Schecule
Here are the dates/times/TV schedule for the Big Ten Tournament (and a link to the bracket), which will be in Chicago.  All times are Central.

Wednesday March 11 – First Round
(12) vs. (13) (3:30 p.m. ESPN2)
(11) vs. (14) (6 p.m. BTN)

Thursday March 12 – Second Round
(8) vs. (9) (11 a.m., BTN)
(5) vs. (12)/(13) (1:30 p.m., BTN)
(7) vs. (10) (5:30 p.m., ESPN2)
(6) vs. (11)/(14) (8 p.m., ESPN2)

Friday March 13 – Quarterfinals
(1) vs. (8)/(9) (11 a.m., ESPN)
(4) vs. (5)/(12)/(13) (1:30 p.m., ESPN)
(2) vs. (7)/(10) (5:30 p.m., BTN)
(3) vs. (6)/(11)/(14) (8 p.m., BTN)

Saturday March 14 – Semifinals
(1)/(8)/(9) vs. (4)/(5)/(12)/(13) (12 p.m., CBS)
(2)/(7)/(10) vs. (3)/(6)/(11)/(14) (2:30 p.m., CBS)

Sunday March 15 – Finals
(1)/(4)/(5)/(8)/(9)/(12)/(13) vs. (2)/(3)/(6)/(7)/(10)/(11)/(14) (2:30 p.m., CBS)

NCAA Tournament Resumes for All 14 Big Ten Teams
Because I am insane, I am also going to post updates on each Big Ten team's NCAA Tournament resume.  From top to bottom, I will list each team's RPI (based on ESPN's daily RPI), "good" wins (wins against RPI Top 50 teams or, if none, the team's best win), "bad" losses (losses against teams with an RPI of 101+ or, if none, the team's worst loss).  An * means the game was played on a neutral court, and for the "good" wins and "bad" losses, the team's current RPI is identified.

1.  Wisconsin
RPI:  7
Overall record:  20-2
Good wins:  7 (Oklahoma* (18), Georgetown* (23), Indiana (30), Buffalo (43), Iowa (45), at Iowa (45), Boise State (50))
Bad losses: 1 (at Rutgers (115)

2.  Maryland
RPI:  15
Overall record:  19-4
Good wins:  4 (Iowa State* (14), at Oklahoma State (31), at Michigan State (34), Michigan State (34))
Bad losses:  None (at Illinois (53))

3.  Indiana
RPI:  30
Overall record:  16-7
Good wins:  4 (Maryland (15), Butler* (17), SMU (28), Ohio State (36))
Bad losses:  None (at Purdue (69))

4.  Michigan State
RPI:  34
Overall record:  15-7
Good wins:  2 (Indiana (30), at Iowa (45))
Bad losses:  2 (Texas Southern (140), at Nebraska (101))

5.  Ohio State
RPI:  36
Overall record:  17-6
Good wins:  2 (Maryland (15), Indiana (30))
Bad losses:  None (at Purdue (69))

6.  Iowa
RPI:  45
Overall record:  14-8
Good wins:  3 (at North Carolina (10), at Ohio State (36), Ohio State (36))
Bad losses:  None (at Purdue (69))

7.  Illinois
RPI:  53
Overall record:  15-8
Good wins:  2 (Baylor* (13), Maryland (15))
Bad losses:  1 (at Nebraska (101))

8.  Purdue
RPI:  69
Overall record:  15-8
Good wins:  3 (Indiana (30), Ohio State (36), Iowa (45))
Bad losses:  3 (at Vanderbilt (103), Gardner-Webb (132), North Florida (198))

9.  Michigan
RPI:  81
Overall record:  12-10
Good wins:  None (Illinois (53))
Bad losses:  2 (Eastern Michigan (162), NJIT (177))

10.  Minnesota
RPI:  92
Overall record:  13-9
Good wins:  1 (Georgia* (24))
Bad losses:  1 (at Nebraska (101))

11.  Penn State
RPI:  96
Overall record:  14-9
Good wins:  None (George Washington (52))
Bad losses:  2 (at Rutgers (115), Charlotte* (194))

12.  Nebraska
RPI:  101
Overall record:  13-9
Good wins:  2 (Cincinnati (25), Michigan State (34))
Bad losses:  3 (Creighton (119), Incarnate Word (156), at Hawaii (183))

13.  Rutgers
RPI:  115
Overall record:  10-14
Good wins:  1 (Wisconsin (7))
Bad losses:  4 (at Nebraska (101), St. Francis (PA) (144), Northwestern (157), St. Peter's (225))

14.  Northwestern
RPI:  157
Overall record:  10-12
Good wins:  None (at Rutgers (115))
Bad losses:  2 (at Nebraska (101), Central Michigan (117))

1 comment:

kazda said...

It was a quality performance by IU just to stay close to E. Washington. At home...