Updated Big Ten Tournament Seeding Predictions and NCAA Tournament Resumes

It was another interesting weekend in Big Ten play.  On Saturday -– Valentine's Day, literally and figuratively -– Michigan State's Denzel Valentine hit a game winning shot to give the Spartans a home victory over Ohio state, which was a much-needed win for MSU's NCAA Tournament resume.  Meanwhile, Maryland squeaked by Penn State in Happy Valley.

On Sunday, Wisconsin handled Illinois to run its record to 23-2, Northwestern snapped a 10-game losing streak by upsetting Iowa in Evanston (marking the second loss in a row to subpar teams for Iowa, and placing the Hawkeyes firmly on the NCAA Tournament bubble)), Purdue beat Nebraska at home, and IU hit a school record 18 3s on its way to a 90-71 beat-down of Minnesota in Bloomington.  

I was at the game in 2002 when IU set the previous record of 17 3s -- an 88-57 drubbing of then-#9 Illinois, on the Hoosiers' way to the NCAA title game.  That game was a precedent setter.  You see, the IU Bookstore used to have a deal that, the day after every IU men's basketball win, it would give students 3% off for every 3-pointer the Hoosiers made.  After having to suck it up and give students 51% off the day after that game, the store changed its policy to have a 33% cap.  I'm not sure if the Bookstore still has that deal, but if so, they have been taking it on the chin this year, as the Hoosiers have been lights-out from 3-point range.  In their wins, the Hoosiers have only hit less than 7 3s once, and the Bookstore would have had to give IU students the max 33% off five times.  Here's a breakdown of the number of 3-pointers IU has hit in its wins this season:

11+:  5 games

10:  3 games

9:  3 games

8:  2 games

7:  4 games

4:  1 game

On the slate (Tuesday):

-Michigan State at Michigan (9:00 p.m. EST, ESPN)

Current Standings

Here are the current standings, with the conference record, each team's remaining games, and my predictions.  I will try to update these after every day or every couple days of games.

1.  Wisconsin (11-1):  at PSU (W), Minnesota (W), at Maryland (L), MSU (W), at Minnesota (W), at OSU (L)

2 (tie).  Maryland (9-4):  Nebraska (W), Wisconsin (W), Michigan (W), at Rutgers (W), at Nebraska (W)

2 (tie).  Purdue (9-4):  at IU (L), Rutgers (W), at OSU (L), at MSU (L), Illinois (W)

4.  Michigan State (8-4):  at Michigan (L), at Illinois (W), Minnesota (W), at Wisconsin (L), Purdue (W), at IU (L)

5 (tie).  Indiana (8-5):  Purdue (W), at Rutgers (W), at Northwestern (W), Iowa (W), MSU (W)

5 (tie).  Ohio State (8-5):  at Michigan (L), Nebraska (W), Purdue (W), at PSU (W), Wisconsin (W)

7.  Illinois (7-6):  MSU (L), at Iowa (L), Northwestern (W), Nebraska (W), at Purdue (L)

8.  Iowa (6-6):  Rutgers (W), at Nebraska (L), Illinois (W), at PSU (W), at IU (L), Northwestern (W)

9.  Michigan (6-7):  MSU (W), OSU (W), at Maryland (L), at Northwestern (W), Rutgers (W)

10 (tie).  Nebraska (5-8):  at Maryland (L), Iowa (W), at OSU (L), at Illinois (L), Maryland (L)

10 (tie).  Minnesota (5-8):  Northwestern (W), at Wisconsin (L), at MSU (L), Wisconsin (L), PSU (W)

12.  Penn State (3-10):  Wisconsin (L), at Northwestern (L), Iowa (L), OSU (L), at Minnesota (L)

13.  Northwestern (2-10):  at Minnesota (L), PSU (W), IU (L), at Illinois (L), Michigan (L), at Iowa (L)

14.  Rutgers (2-11):  at Iowa (L), IU (L), at Purdue (L), Maryland (L), at Michigan (L)

Projected Big Ten Tournament Seeding

Given my predictions and Big Ten tiebreaking rules, here is how the Big Ten Tournament seeds should fall into place:

1.  Wisconsin (15-3)

2.  Maryland (14-4)

3.  Indiana (13-5)

4.  Ohio State (12-6)

5.  Michigan State (11-7) (would have tiebreaker over Purdue based on 1-0 record vs. Purdue)

6.  Purdue (11-7)

7.  Iowa (10-8) (has tiebreaker over Michigan based on 1-0 record vs. Michigan)

8.  Michigan (10-8)

9.  Illinois (9-9)

10.  Minnesota (7-11)

11.  Nebraska (6-12)

12.  Northwestern (3-15) (would have tiebreaker over Penn State based on 1-0 record vs. Penn State)

13.  Penn State (3-15)

14.  Rutgers (2-16)

Big Ten Tournament Schecule

Here are the dates/times/TV schedule for the Big Ten Tournament (and a link to the bracket), which will be in Chicago.  All times are Central.

Wednesday March 11 – First Round

(12) vs. (13) (3:30 p.m. ESPN2)

(11) vs. (14) (6 p.m. BTN)

Thursday March 12 – Second Round

(8) vs. (9) (11 a.m., BTN)

(5) vs. (12)/(13) (1:30 p.m., BTN)

(7) vs. (10) (5:30 p.m., ESPN2)

(6) vs. (11)/(14) (8 p.m., ESPN2)

Friday March 13 – Quarterfinals

(1) vs. (8)/(9) (11 a.m., ESPN)

(4) vs. (5)/(12)/(13) (1:30 p.m., ESPN)

(2) vs. (7)/(10) (5:30 p.m., BTN)

(3) vs. (6)/(11)/(14) (8 p.m., BTN)

Saturday March 14 – Semifinals

(1)/(8)/(9) vs. (4)/(5)/(12)/(13) (12 p.m., CBS)

(2)/(7)/(10) vs. (3)/(6)/(11)/(14) (2:30 p.m., CBS)

Sunday March 15 – Finals

(1)/(4)/(5)/(8)/(9)/(12)/(13) vs. (2)/(3)/(6)/(7)/(10)/(11)/(14) (2:30 p.m., CBS)

NCAA Tournament Resumes for All 14 Big Ten Teams

Here is each Big Ten team's updated NCAA Tournament resume.  From top to bottom, I will list each team's RPI (based on ESPN's daily RPI), "good" wins (wins against RPI Top 50 teams or, if none, the team's best win), "bad" losses (losses against teams with an RPI of 101+ or, if none, the team's worst loss).  An * means the game was played on a neutral court, and for the "good" wins and "bad" losses, the team's current RPI is identified.  Also, I have categorized the teams by "In," "Bubble," or "Out," which is my best guess, based on what I know right now, as to whether each team is a lock for the NCAA Tournament, is on the bubble, or is out.

In

1.  Wisconsin

RPI:  6

Overall record:  23-2

Good wins:  5 (Oklahoma* (18), Georgetown* (20), Indiana (29), Illinois (42), Boise State (43))

Bad losses: 1 (at Rutgers (132))

2.  Maryland

RPI:  11

Overall record:  21-5

Good wins:  5 (Iowa State* (13), at Oklahoma State (25), Indiana (29), Michigan State (36), at Michigan State (36))

Bad losses:  None (at Iowa (55))

3.  Indiana

RPI:  29

Overall record:  18-8

Good wins:  6 (Maryland (11), Butler* (21), SMU (22), Ohio State (35), at Illinois (42), Pittsburgh (47))

Bad losses:  None (at Purdue (64))

4.  Ohio State

RPI:  35

Overall record:  19-7

Good wins:  3 (Maryland (11), Indiana (29), Illinois (42))

Bad losses:  None (at Purdue (64))

5.  Michigan State

RPI:  36

Overall record:  17-8

Good wins:  2 (Indiana (29), Ohio State (35))

Bad losses:  2 (at Nebraska (108), Texas Southern (169))

Bubble

6.  Illinois

RPI:  42

Overall record:  17-9

Good wins:  3 (Maryland (11), Baylor* (14), at Michigan State (36))

Bad losses:  1 (at Nebraska (108))

7.  Iowa

RPI:  55

Overall record:  15-10

Good wins:  4 (at North Carolina (10), Maryland (11), at Ohio State (35), Ohio State (35))

Bad losses:  1 (at Northwestern (144))

8.  Purdue

RPI:  64

Overall record:  17-9

Good wins:  3 (Indiana (29), Ohio State (35), NC State (45))

Bad losses:  3 (at Vanderbilt (104) Gardner-Webb (168), North Florida (193))

Out

9.  Minnesota

RPI:  78

Overall record:  15-10

Good wins:  2 (Georgia* (30), Illinois (42))

Bad losses:  1 (at Nebraska (108))

10.  Michigan

RPI:  84

Overall record:  12-12

Good wins:  1 (Illinois (42))

Bad losses:  2 (Eastern Michigan (158), NJIT (172))

11.  Penn State

RPI:  91

Overall record:  15-11

Good wins:  None (George Washington (72))

Bad losses:  2 (at Rutgers (132), Charlotte* (186))

12.  Nebraska

RPI:  108

Overall record:  13-12

Good wins:  3 (Michigan State (36), Cincinnati (39), Illinois (42))

Bad losses:  3 (Creighton (125), Incarnate Word (161), at Hawaii (176))

13.  Rutgers

RPI:  132

Overall record:  10-16

Good wins:  1 (Wisconsin (6))

Bad losses:  4 (at Nebraska (108), Northwestern (144), St. Francis (PA) (179), St. Peter's (228))

14.  Northwestern

RPI:  144

Overall record:  11-14

Good wins:  None (Iowa (55))

Bad losses:  2 (at Nebraska (108), Georgia Tech (113))