Wednesday, March 25, 2015

Tuesday Top Ten: Fun Facts About This Year's NCAA Tournament

I completely forgot to post this yesterday, so please accept my sincere apologies and stop emailing me on the hour.  Another year, another fantastic first weekend of the NCAA Tournament.  Thursday was insane, with a ton of close games and some pretty big upsets.  Friday was also pretty solid.  Most of my brackets are not totally busted, so that's a plus.

The highlight of the weekend had to belong to Georgia State coach Ron Hunter, who ruptured his Achilles tendon celebrating the Panthers' Sun Belt Tournament championship and had to sit on a rolling chair on the sidelines as a result.  He literally fell out of his chair when his son, RJ (the team's star player), hit a three-pointer to seal a monumental come-from-behind victory over 3-seed Baylor in the Round of 64.

There are no true Cinderellas in this year's Sweet 16, which is always kind of a mixed blessing.  On one hand, there is not a mid-major team to rally behind like a George Mason in 2006, a Davidson in 2008, or a Butler or VCU in 2011, but on the other hand, this is shaping up to be a very competitive Sweet 16 and Elite 8.  Here are some musings to consider as we gear up for Thursday through Sunday:
-Can West Virginia's frenetic defense frustrate Kentucky enough to keep the game competitive?  Or will the Wildcats avenge their 2010 Elite Eight loss to the Mountaineers?
-If Wichita State and Kentucky advance to face each other in the Elite Eight, it will be a rematch of last year's Round of 32 game, in which the 8-seed Wildcats took down the previously undefeated 1-seed Shockers.  Revenge is a dish best served on March 28.
-If both Wisconsin and Arizona advance to face each other in the Elite Eight, it will be a rematch of last year's thrilling Elite Eight matchup, which Wisconsin won 64-63 in overtime.
-If Gonzaga beats UCLA Friday, the Bulldogs will earn their second ever Elite Eight appearance and first since 1999.
-Thursday night's game against Arizona and Xavier will feature Arizona head coach Sean Miller coaching against his former team.
-Friday nights' Gonzaga/UCLA game will be a rematch of the 2006 Sweet 16 matchup, which you may remember as the game in which Gonzaga blew a 17-point lead to lose in the final seconds, causing Gonzaga forward and First Team All-American Adam Morrison (playing in his final college game) to break down in tears on the court.
-Fuck Kentucky.

Here are the Sweet 16 teams, along with the last time they made the Sweet 16 (and their region, seeds, game time, and what station is televising the game):

Midwest Region (Cleveland)
(3) Notre Dame (2003) vs. (7) Wichita State (2013) - Thursday 3/26 7:15 ET CBS
(1) Kentucky (2014) vs. (5) West Virginia (2010) - Thursday 3/26 9:45 ET CBS

West Region (Los Angeles)
(1) Wisconsin (2014) vs. (4) North Carolina (2012) - Thursday 3/26 7:47 ET TBS
(2) Arizona (2014) vs. (6) Xavier (2012) - Thursday 3/26 10:17 ET TBS

South Region (Houston)
(2) Gonzaga (2009) vs. (11) UCLA (2014) - Friday 3/27 7:15 ET CBS
(1) Duke (2013) vs. (5) Utah (2005) - Friday 3/27 9:45 ET CBS

East Region (Syracuse)
(4) Louisville (2014) vs. (8) NC State (2012) - Friday 3/27 7:37 ET CBS
(3) Oklahoma (2009) vs. (7) Michigan State (2014) - Friday 3/27 10:07 ET CBS

If you're like me -- and you better pray to Odin that you're not –- you not only love the NCAA Tournament, but you are fascinated with the history and statistical minutiae associated with the tournament.  Like I've done the last couple years, I'm going to drop knowledge bombs on your mind.  Here are 11 fun facts –- you get an extra one because it wouldn't be fair if I left any of these out -- about this year's NCAA tournament.

11.  On Thursday, five games were decided by one point, which was a single-day record for the NCAA Tournament.  Including one one-point game in the play-in round, I believe this tournament has already tied the record for most one-point games in a single NCAA Tournament.  There have also been three overtime games so far.

10.  There is no region in which all four top 4 seeds advanced to the Sweet 16.  I was assuming that would be unusual, but it is apparently more common than not.  This is the 22nd time since seeding began in 1979 in which no region advanced its top 4 seeds to the Sweet 16.  The other years were 1980-1981, 1984, 1986-1988, 1990, 1993, 1995-1998, 2000, 2002-2003, 2005-2006, 2010-2012, and 2014.

9.  No 12-seed won this year.  This is only the fourth time since the tournament expanded to 64 teams in 1985 that this has happened, and the first time since 2007 (1988 and 2000 are the other two years).  On a related note, this was the first time since 2007 and only the third time since 1985 that all four 4-seeds and all four 5-seeds won their Round of 64 games (2000 was the other year).

8.  When 14-seeds Georgia State and UAB won their Round of 64 games against Baylor and Iowa State, respectively, it was the 19th and 20th time a 14-seed has beaten a 3-seed (and the third year in a row that has happened).  Two 14-seeds won in the same NCAA Tournament since for the first time 1995 and only the 3rd time since the tournament expanded to 64 teams in 1985 (1986 was the other year).

7.  In the East Region, top seed Villanova and 2-seed Virginia fell in the Round of 32.  This is the 9th time since seeding began in 1979 that the top two teams in the same region failed to advance to the Sweet 16.  Here are the times that has happened (with the year, region, and 1- and 2-seeds, respectively):
2015 (East Region – Villanova, Virginia)
2004 (St. Louis Region – Kentucky, Gonzaga)
2000 (South Region – Stanford, Cincinnati)
2000 (West Region – Arizona, St. John's)
1992 (Midwest Region – Kansas, USC)
1990 (Midwest Region – Oklahoma, Purdue)
1981 (Mideast Region – DePaul, Kentucky)
1980 (West Region – DePaul, Oregon State)
1979 (East Region – North Carolina, Duke)

Notably, only one national champion has come out of those regions (Indiana in 1981). 

6.  Oklahoma's Lon Kruger became the first coach in NCAA history to win an NCAA Tournament game with five different schools and the first to lead four different schools to a Sweet 16.  His other Sweet 16s came with Kansas State (1988), Florida (1994), and UNLV (2007).

5.  Villanova, the top seed in the East Region, fell to 8-seed NC State on Saturday, making it the fifth time in the last six years and 22nd time overall that a 1-seed lost in the Round of 32.  Here are the 1-seeds that have lost in the Round of 32 since the tournament began seeding in 1979:
2015:  Villanova
2014:  Wichita State
2013:  Gonzaga
2011:  Pittsburgh
2010:  Kansas
2004:  Kentucky, Stanford
2002:  Cincinnati
2000:  Arizona, Stanford
1998:  Kansas
1996:  Purdue
1994:  North Carolina
1992:  Kansas
1990:  Oklahoma
1986:  St. John's
1985:  Michigan
1982:  DePaul
1981:  DePaul, Oregon State
1980:  DePaul
1979:  North Carolina

4.  Two 2-seeds –- Kansas in the Midwest Region and Virginia in the East Region -- lost in the Round of 32.  This marks the 32nd time in the 37 years since seeding began in 1979 that all four 2-seeds failed to advance to the Sweet 16, and the 18th year since 1979 that two or more 2-seeds failed to make the Sweet 16 (1981, 1983, 1984, 1986, 1990, 1993, 1997, 1999-2001, 2003-2006, 2008, 2012, 2014).  In three of those years, three 2-seeds failed to make the Sweet 16 (1990, 1999, 2000).  1982, 1989, 1995, 1996, and 2009 are the only years in which all four 2-seeds advanced to the Sweet 16.

3.  The average seed number for Sweet 16 teams this year is 4.375, making this the lowest average seed number in the Sweet 16 since 2009 and only the sixth time in the last 20 years that the average seed number has been that low.  It still seems pretty high if you consider that, if the seeding played out as it should (i.e., all teams seeded 1-4 advancing to the Sweet 16, which has never happened), the average seed number would be 2.5. Here is the average seed of Sweet 16 teams since 1979:
2015: 4.375
2014: 4.9375
2013: 5.0625
2012: 4.5625
2011: 5
2010: 5
2009: 3.0625
2008: 4.375
2007: 3.1875
2006: 4.4375
2005: 4.5
2004: 4.5625
2003: 4.1875
2002: 4.6875
2001: 4.5625
2000: 5.3125
1999: 5.5
1998: 4.75
1997: 4.8125
1996: 3.6875
1995: 3.1875
1994: 4.25
1993: 4.0625
1992: 4.1875
1991: 4
1990: 5.5
1989: 3.125
1988: 4.3125
1987: 4.25
1986: 5.5625
1985: 4.875
1984: 3.8125
1983: 3.5
1982: 3.1875
1981: 4.5625
1980: 4.125
1979: 3.8125

2.  There are 3 mid-majors in the Sweet 16, which is the fourth year in a row there have been 3 or fewer mid-majors in the Sweet 16. (I consider non-Power Five conferences to be mid-majors, even if a school is now in a Power Five conference, so, for instance, Utah was a mid-major before joining the Pac-12 a couple years ago. It's not a perfect science. Deal with it.)  23 mid-majors have advanced to the Final Four since 1979.  Here is a year-by-year breakdown of the number of mid-major teams that made it to the Sweet 16 since 1979:
2015: 3 (Gonzaga, Wichita State, Xavier)
2014: 2 (Dayton, San Diego State)
2013: 3 (Florida Gulf Coast, LaSalle, Wichita State*)
2012: 2 (Ohio, Xavier)
2011: 5 (Butler*, BYU, Richmond, San Diego State, VCU*)
2010: 5 (Butler*, Cornell, Northern Iowa, St. Mary's, Xavier)
2009: 3 (Gonzaga, Memphis, Xavier)
2008: 4 (Davidson, Memphis*, Western Kentucky, Xavier)
2007: 4 (Butler, Memphis, Southern Illinois, UNLV)
2006: 5 (Bradley, George Mason*, Gonzaga, Memphis, Wichita State)
2005: 2 (Utah, UW-Milwaukee)
2004: 4 (Nevada, St. Joseph's, UAB, Xavier)
2003: 2 (Butler, Marquette*)
2002: 2 (Kent State, Southern Illinois)
2001: 2 (Cincinnati, Gonzaga, Temple)
2000: 2 (Gonzaga, Tulsa)
1999: 4 (Gonzaga, Miami (OH), SW Missouri State, Temple)
1998: 3 (Rhode Island, Utah*, Valparaiso)
1997: 3 (St. Joseph's, Utah, UT-Chattanooga)
1996: 3 (Cincinnati, Massachusetts*, Utah)
1995: 3 (Massachusetts, Memphis, Tulsa)
1994: 2 (Marquette, Tulsa)
1993: 4 (Cincinnati, George Washington, Temple, Western Kentucky)
1992: 5 (Cincinnati*, Memphis State, Massachusetts, New Mexico State, UTEP)
1991: 4 (Eastern Michigan, Temple, UNLV*, Utah)
1990: 4 (Ball State, Loyola Marymount, UNLV**, Xavier)
1989: 2 (Louisville, UNLV)
1988: 4 (Louisville, Rhode Island, Richmond, Temple)
1987: 3 (DePaul, UNLV*, Wyoming)
1986: 5 (Cleveland State, DePaul, Louisville**, Navy, UNLV)
1985: 3 (Louisiana Tech, Loyola (IL), Memphis State*)
1984: 6 (Dayton, DePaul, Houston*, Louisville, Memphis State, UNLV)
1983: 4 (Houston*, Louisville, Memphis State, Utah)
1982: 6 (Fresno State, Houston*, Idaho, Louisville*, Memphis State, UAB)
1981: 5 (BYU, St. Joseph's, UAB, Utah, Wichita State)
1980: 2 (Lamar, Louisville**)
1979: 8 (DePaul*, Indiana State*, Louisville, Marquette, Penn*, Rutgers, San Francisco, Toledo)
*Advanced to Final Four
**Won NCAA title

1.  This year, there are only 2 teams seeded 8 or lower that advanced to the Sweet 16, the fewest since 2009.  UCLA is the only double-digit seed in the Sweet 16, which is the first time since 2009 that fewer than two double-digit seeds have advanced to the Sweet 16 and only the 9th time since the tournament expanded to 64 teams in 1985 that multiple double-digit seeds have failed to make it to the second weekend.  Eleven teams seeded 8 or higher have advanced to the Final Four (Villanova in 1985 was the only national champion).  Here is a year-by-year breakdown of the number of teams seeded #8 or lower that made it to the Sweet 16 since 1979:
2015: 2 (#8 NC State, #11 UCLA)
2014: 4 (#8 Kentucky*, #10 Stanford, #11 Dayton, #11 Tennessee)
2013: 4 (#9 Wichita State*, #12 Oregon, #13 LaSalle, and #15 Florida Gulf Coast)
2012: 3 (#10 Xavier, #11 NC State, and #13 Ohio)
2011: 5 (#8 Butler*, #10 Florida State, #11 Marquette, #11 VCU*, and #12 Richmond)
2010: 4 (#9 Northern Iowa, #10 St. Mary's, #11 Washington, #12 Cornell)
2009: 1 (#12 Arizona)
2008: 3 (#10 Davidson, #12 Villanova, #12 Western Kentucky)
2007: 0
2006: 2 (#11 George Mason*, #13 Bradley)
2005: 2 (#10 North Carolina State, #12 UW-Milwaukee)
2004: 3 (#8 Alabama, #9 UAB, #10 Nevada)
2003: 2 (#10 Auburn, #12 Butler)
2002: 4 (#8 UCLA, #10 Kent State, #11 Southern Illinois, #12 Missouri)
2001: 3 (#10 Georgetown, #11 Temple, #12 Gonzaga)
2000: 4 (#8 North Carolina*, #8 Wisconsin*, #10 Seton Hall, #10 Gonzaga)
1999: 5 (#10 Gonzaga, #10 Miami (OH), #10 Purdue, #12 Southwest Missouri State, #13 Oklahoma)
1998: 4 (#8 Rhode Island, #10 West Virginia, #11 Washington, #13 Valparaiso)
1997: 3 (#10 Texas, #10 Providence, #14 UT-Chattanooga)
1996: 2 (#8 Georgia, #12 Arkansas)
1995: 0
1994: 2 (#9 Boston College, #10 Maryland, #12 Tulsa)
1993: 1 (#12 George Washington)
1992: 2 (#9 UTEP, #12 New Mexico State)
1991: 3 (#10 Temple, #11 Connecticut, #12 Eastern Michigan)
1990: 4 (#8 North Carolina, #10 Texas, #11 Loyola Marymount, #12 Ball State)
1989: 1 (#11 Minnesota)
1988: 2 (#11 Rhode Island, #13 Richmond)
1987: 2 (#10 LSU, #12 Wyoming)
1986: 4 (#8 Auburn, #11 LSU*, #12 DePaul, #14 Cleveland State)
1985: 4 (#8 Villanova**, #11 Auburn, #11 Boston College, #12 Kentucky)
1984: 1 (#10 Dayton)
1983: 1 (#10 Utah)
1982: 1 (#8 Boston College)
1981: 2 (#8 Kansas State, #9 St. Joseph's)
1980: 2 (#8 UCLA*, #10 Lamar)
1979: 2 (#9 Penn*, #10 St. John's)
*Advanced to Final Four
**Won NCAA title

1 comment:

marc said...

There is also this http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/tom-izzo-is-the-best-coach-in-modern-ncaa-tournament-history-by-far/ and this http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/incredible-izzo-again-defies-odds/