Updated Big Ten Tournament Seeding Predictions and NCAA Tournament Resumes

No real surprises last night, as Ohio State beat Penn State in Happy Valley, Michigan State held off Purdue, in spite of an injury that limited Branden Dawson to only nine minutes for the Spartans, and Illinois beat the hapless Huskers in Champaign.

Here are the seeding scenarios for the top 8 spots in the Big Ten Tournament:

1- and 2-seeds. 

-Wisconsin and Maryland are the only two teams that can get the 1- or 2-seeds.

-Tonight, Wisconsin can clinch the 1-seed with a win at Minnesota or a win at Ohio State Sunday.

-Maryland has clinched at least the 2-seed and still has a shot at the 1-seed if the Terps beat Nebraska on Sunday and Wisconsin loses its last two games. 

3-6 seeds.

-There is currently a 4-way tie between Iowa, Michigan State, Ohio State, and Purdue for third place.  All currently have 11-6 records in conference.

-If MSU beats IU on Saturday, MSU clinches the 3-seed, regardless of what the other teams do. 

-If (1) all four teams end up with the same record, (2) MSU ends up with 12-6 record and the other three teams have 11-7 records, the seeding would go:

3.  MSU

4.  Iowa

5.  Purdue

6.  OSU

-If Iowa ends up with 12-6 record and the other three teams have 11-7 records:

3.  Iowa

4.  MSU

5.  OSU

6.  Purdue

-If OSU ends up with 12-6 record and the other three teams have 11-7 records:

3.  OSU

4.  MSU

5.  Purdue

6.  Iowa

-If Purdue ends up with 12-6 record and the other three teams have 11-7 records:

3.  Purdue

4.  MSU

5.  Iowa

6.  OSU

-If (1) Iowa and MSU end up with 12-6 records and OSU and Purdue end up with 11-7 records or (2) If Purdue ends up with 11-7 record and the other three teams have 12-6 records:

3.  MSU

4.  Iowa

5.  OSU

6.  Purdue

-If Iowa and OSU end up with 12-6 records and MSU and Purdue end up with 11-7 records:

3.  Iowa

4.  OSU

5.  MSU

6.  Purdue

-If Iowa and Purdue end up with 12-6 records and MSU and OSU end up with 11-7 records:

3.  Purdue

4.  Iowa

5.  MSU

6.  OSU

-If (1) MSU and OSU end up with 12-6 records and Iowa and Purdue end up with 11-7 records or (2) Iowa ends up with 11-7 record and the other three teams have 12-6 records:

3.  MSU

4.  OSU

5.  Purdue

6.  Iowa

-If (1) MSU and Purdue end up with 12-6 records and Iowa and OSU end up with 11-7 records or (2) OSU ends up with 11-7 record and the other three teams have 12-6 records:

3.  MSU

4.  Purdue

5.  Iowa

6.  OSU

-If OSU and Purdue end up with 12-6 records and Iowa and MSU end up with 11-7 records

3.  OSU

4.  Purdue

5.  MSU

6.  Iowa

-If MSU ends up with 11-7 record and the other three teams have 12-6 records

3.  Iowa

4.  Purdue

5.  OSU

6.  MSU

7- and 8-seeds.

-IU and Illinois are tied for 7th place, and neither can go higher than the 7-seed or lower than the 8-seed.

-If IU beats Michigan State Saturday, Illinois loses to Purdue Saturday, both teams win, or both teams lose, IU will clinch the 7-seed and Illinois will be the 8-seed. 

-If IU loses and Illinois wins, Illinois would be the 7-seed and IU would be the 8-seed.

On the slate tonight:

-Wisconsin at Minnesota (7:00 p.m. EST, ESPN)

Current Standings

Here are the current standings, with the conference record, each team's remaining games, and my predictions.  I will try to update these after every day or every couple days of games.

1.  Wisconsin (14-2):  at Minnesota (W), at OSU (L)

2.  Maryland (13-4):  at Nebraska (W)

3 (tie).  Iowa (11-6):  Northwestern (W)

3 (tie).  Michigan State (11-6):  at IU (W)

3 (tie).  Ohio State (11-6):  Wisconsin (W)

3 (tie).  Purdue (11-6):  Illinois (W)

7 (tie).  Indiana (9-8):  MSU (L)

7 (tie).  Illinois (9-8):  at Purdue (L)

9.  Michigan (7-10):  Rutgers (W)

10.  Minnesota (6-10):  Wisconsin (L), PSU (W)

11.  Northwestern (6-11):  at Iowa (L)

12.  Nebraska (5-12):  at Illinois (L), Maryland (L)

13.  Penn State (3-14):  at Minnesota (L)

14.  Rutgers (2-15):  at Michigan (L)

Projected Big Ten Tournament Seeding

Given my predictions and Big Ten tiebreaking rules, here is how the Big Ten Tournament seeds should fall into place:

1.  Wisconsin (15-3)

2.  Maryland (14-4)

3.  Michigan State (12-6) (has tiebreaker over OSU, Iowa, and Purdue based on 3-0 record vs. other three teams, while Iowa and Purdue have 2-2 records against the other three teams, and OSU has 1-4 record against other three teams)

4.  Iowa (12-6) (has tiebreaker over Purdue based on better record vs. Maryland)

5.  Purdue (12-6)

6.  Ohio State (12-6) (loses tiebreaker with MSU, Iowa, and Purdue based on worse record vs. other three than the other three have against each other)

7.  Indiana (9-9) (has tiebreaker over Illinois based on 1-0 record vs. Illinois)

8.  Illinois (9-9)

9.  Michigan (8-10)

10.  Minnesota (7-11)

11.  Northwestern (6-12)

12.  Nebraska (5-13)

13.  Penn State (3-15)

14.  Rutgers (2-16)

Big Ten Tournament Schecule

Here are the dates/times/TV schedule for the Big Ten Tournament (and a link to the bracket), which will be in Chicago.  All times are Central.

Wednesday March 11 – First Round

(12) vs. (13) (3:30 p.m. ESPN2)

(11) vs. (14) (6 p.m. BTN)

Thursday March 12 – Second Round

(8) vs. (9) (11 a.m., BTN)

(5) vs. (12)/(13) (1:30 p.m., BTN)

(7) vs. (10) (5:30 p.m., ESPN2)

(6) vs. (11)/(14) (8 p.m., ESPN2)

Friday March 13 – Quarterfinals

(1) vs. (8)/(9) (11 a.m., ESPN)

(4) vs. (5)/(12)/(13) (1:30 p.m., ESPN)

(2) vs. (7)/(10) (5:30 p.m., BTN)

(3) vs. (6)/(11)/(14) (8 p.m., BTN)

Saturday March 14 – Semifinals

(1)/(8)/(9) vs. (4)/(5)/(12)/(13) (12 p.m., CBS)

(2)/(7)/(10) vs. (3)/(6)/(11)/(14) (2:30 p.m., CBS)

Sunday March 15 – Finals

(1)/(4)/(5)/(8)/(9)/(12)/(13) vs. (2)/(3)/(6)/(7)/(10)/(11)/(14) (2:30 p.m., CBS)

NCAA Tournament Resumes for All 14 Big Ten Teams

Here is each Big Ten team's updated NCAA Tournament resume.  From top to bottom, I will list each team's RPI (based on ESPN's daily RPI), "good" wins (wins against RPI Top 50 teams or, if none, the team's best win), "bad" losses (losses against teams with an RPI of 101+ or, if none, the team's worst loss).  An * means the game was played on a neutral court, and for the "good" wins and "bad" losses, the team's current RPI is identified.  Also, I have categorized the teams by "In," "Bubble," or "Out," which is my best guess, based on what I know right now, as to whether each team is a lock for the NCAA Tournament, is on the bubble, or is out.

In

1.  Wisconsin

RPI:  6

Overall record:  26-3

Good wins:  7 (Oklahoma* (18), Georgetown* (22), Michigan State (29), Buffalo (37), Iowa (38), at Iowa (38), Boise State (40))

Bad losses: 1 (at Rutgers (155))

2.  Maryland

RPI:  9

Overall record:  25-5

Good wins:  5 (Wisconsin (6), Iowa State* (14), Michigan State (29), at Michigan State (29), at Oklahoma State (39))

Bad losses:  None (at Illinois (58))

3.  Michigan State

RPI:  29

Overall record:  20-10

Good wins:  2 (Ohio State (31), at Iowa (38))

Bad losses:  2 (at Nebraska (126), Texas Southern (137))

4.  Ohio State

RPI:  31

Overall record:  22-8

Good wins:  1 (Maryland (19))

Bad losses:  None (at Michigan (84))

5.  Iowa

RPI:  38

Overall record:  20-10

Good wins:  4 (Maryland (9), at North Carolina (12), at Ohio State (31), Ohio State (31))

Bad losses:  1 (at Northwestern (108))

Bubble

6.  Indiana

RPI:  52

Overall record:  19-11

Good wins:  4 (Maryland (9), SMU (19), Butler* (26), Ohio State (31))

Bad losses:  1 (at Northwestern (108))

7.  Illinois

RPI:  58

Overall record:  19-11

Good wins:  3 (Maryland (9), Baylor* (10), at Michigan State (29))

Bad losses:  1 (at Nebraska (126))

8.  Purdue

RPI:  61

Overall record:  19-11

Good wins:  4 (Ohio State (31), Iowa (38), BYU* (43), NC State (46))

Bad losses:  2 (Gardner-Webb (157), North Florida (177))

Out

9.  Minnesota

RPI:  80

Overall record:  16-12

Good wins:  3 (at Michigan State (29), Georgia* (34), at Iowa (38))

Bad losses:  3 (Northwestern (108), at Penn State (124), at Nebraska (126))

10.  Michigan

RPI:  84

Overall record:  13-15

Good wins:  2 (Oregon* (30), Ohio State (31))

Bad losses:  3 (at Northwestern (108), Eastern Michigan (162), NJIT (163))

11.  Northwestern

RPI:  108

Overall record:  15-15

Good wins:  1 (Iowa (38))

Bad losses:  2 (Georgia Tech (123), at Nebraska (126))

12.  Penn State

RPI:  124

Overall record:  15-15

Good wins:  None (Minnesota (80))

Bad losses:  3 (at Northwestern (108), at Rutgers (155), Charlotte* (195))

13.  Nebraska

RPI:  126

Overall record:  13-16

Good wins:  2 (Michigan State (29), Cincinnati (36))

Bad losses:  4 (Creighton (122), at Penn State (124), Incarnate Word (144), at Hawaii (176))

14.  Rutgers

RPI:  155

Overall record:  10-20

Good wins:  1 (Wisconsin (6))

Bad losses:  5 (Northwestern (108), at Penn State (124), at Nebraska (126), St. Francis (PA) (181), St. Peter's (247))