Thursday, March 12, 2015

Updated Championship Week Predictions

The insanity is here.  Today there will be 60 games.  Here's what happened yesterday:
  • In the Patriot League final, 4-seed Lafayette needed two free throws with 14.5 seconds left to clinch its 65-63 victory over 6-seed (and defending Patriot League champ) American.  The Leopards are the lowest seed in Patriot League history to win the conference tournament, but that doesn't matter because they are going to the Big Dance.  They will be playing in their 4th NCAA Tournament and first since 2000.
  • Most of the major conference tournaments started yesterday.  There weren't any huge upsets.
  • In the Big Ten, Penn State beat Nebraska, which is only significant because it assures the Nittany Lions of a winning record, which means they can qualify for the NIT.  In the other game, Minnesota beat Rutgers, which it should have done.
  • Here are the bubble teams that won yesterday:  Miami, Stanford, Texas
  • Here are the bubble teams that lost yesterday:  Kansas State, Pitt
  • The remaining 4 tournaments start today, and 18 tournaments have games.
  • There are no bids up for grabs today or tomorrow, before the remaining 21 automatic bids will be clinched Saturday and Sunday.
Here are the tournaments starting today, the tournaments with games today, bids up for grab today, who has already clinched an automatic berth, and my predictions for the remaining conference tournaments. 

Tournaments starting today:
-AAC
-Big Sky
-Big West
-Sun Belt

Tournaments with games today:
-AAC
-ACC
-Atlantic 10
-Big 12
-Big East
-Big Sky
-Big Ten
-Big West
-Conference USA
-MAC
-MEAC
-Mountain West
-Pac-12
-SEC
-Southland
-Sun Belt
-SWAC
-WAC

Bids up for grabs today (all times Eastern):
-None

Already clinched automatic berths (in parentheses is the NCAA tournament appearances, including the bid just clinched):
-Atlantic Sun:  North Florida (1)
-Big South:  Coastal Carolina (4)
-Colonial:  Northeastern (8)
-Horizon League:  Valparaiso (9)
-MAAC:  Manhattan (8)
-Missouri Valley:  Northern Iowa (7)
-Northeast Conference:  Robert Morris (8)
-Ohio Valley:  Belmont (7)
-Patriot League:  Lafayette (4)
-Southern Conference:  Wofford (4)
-Summit League:  North Dakota State (3)
-West Coast Conference:  Gonzaga (18)

Remaining Tournaments (all times are Eastern):

AAC (March 12-15; Hartford)
3/12 – First Round
3:30 p.m. (ESPNU) (8) ECU vs. (9) UCF.  Predicted winner:  ECU
6 p.m. (ESPNews) (7) Tulane vs. (10) Houston.  Predicted winner:  Tulane
8 p.m. (ESPNews) (6) UConn vs. (11) USF.  Predicted winner:  UConn
3/13 – Quarterfinals
12 p.m. (ESPN2) (1) SMU vs. (8) ECU.  Predicted winner:  SMU
2 p.m. (ESPN2) (4) Temple vs. (5) Memphis.  Predicted winner:  Temple
7 p.m. (ESPNU) (3) Cincinnati vs. (6) UConn.  Predicted winner:  Cincinnati
9 p.m. (ESPNU) (2) Tulsa vs. (7) Tulane.  Predicted winner:  Tulsa
3/14 – Semifinals
3 p.m. (ESPN2) (1) SMU vs. (4) Temple.  Predicted winner:  SMU
5 p.m. (ESPN2) (2) Tulsa vs. (3) Cincinnati.  Predicted winner:  Cincinnati
3/15 – Finals
3:15 p.m. (ESPN) (1) SMU vs. (3) Cincinnati.  Predicted winner:  SMU

ACC (March 10-14; Greensboro)
3/12 – Quarterfinals
12 p.m. (ESPN/ESPN2) (1) Virginia vs. (9) Florida State.  Predicted winner:  Virginia
2 p.m. (ESPN/ESPN2) (4) Louisville vs. (5) North Carolina.  Predicted winner:  North Carolina
7 p.m. (ESPN) (2) Duke vs. (7) NC State.  Predicted winner:  Duke
9 p.m. (ESPN) (3) Notre Dame vs. (6) Miami.  Predicted winner:  Notre Dame
3/15 – Semifinals
7 p.m. (ESPN/ESPN2) (1) Virginia vs. (5) North Carolina.  Predicted winner:  Virginia
9 p.m. (ESPN/ESPN2) (2) Duke vs. (3) Notre Dame.  Predicted winner:  Duke
3/16 – Finals
8:30 p.m. (ESPN) (1) Virginia vs. (2) Duke.  Predicted winner:  Virginia

America East (March 4, 8, 14; campus of higher seeds)
3/14 – Finals
11:30 a.m. (ESPN2) (3) Stony Brook at (1) Albany.  Predicted winner:  Albany

Atlantic 10 (March 11-15; Brooklyn)
3/11 – First Round
3/12 – Second Round
12 p.m. (NBCSN) (8) UMass vs. (9) LaSalle.  Predicted winner:  UMass
2:30 p.m. (NBCSN) (5) VCU vs. (12) Fordham.  Predicted winner:  VCU
6:30 p.m. (NBCSN) (7) St. Bonaventure vs. (10) St. Joseph's.  Predicted winner:  St. Bonaventure
9 p.m. (NBCSN) (6) George Washington vs. (11) Duquesne.  Predicted winner:  George Washington
3/13 – Quarterfinals
12 p.m. (NBCSN) (1) Davidson vs. (8) UMass.  Predicted winner:  Davidson
2 p.m. (NBCSN) (4) Richmond vs. (5) VCU.  Predicted winner:  VCU
6:30 p.m. (NBCSN) (2) Dayton vs. (7) St. Bonaventure.  Predicted winner:  Dayton
9 p.m. (NBCSN) (3) Rhode Island vs. (6) George Washington.  Predicted winner:  Dayton
3/14 – Semifinals
1:30 p.m. (CBSSN) (1) Davidson vs. (5) VCU.  Predicted winner:  VCU
4 p.m. (CBSSN) (2) Dayton vs. (3) Rhode Island.  Predicted winner:  Dayton
3/15 – Finals
1 p.m. (CBS) (2) Dayton vs. (5) VCU.  Predicted winner:  VCU

Big 12 (March 11-14; Kansas City)
3/12 – Quarterfinals
12:30 p.m. (ESPN2) (4) Baylor vs. (5) West Virginia.  Predicted winner:  Baylor
3 p.m. (ESPN2) (1) Kansas vs. (9) TCU.  Predicted winner:  Kansas
7 p.m. (ESPNU) (2) Iowa State vs. (7) Texas.  Predicted winner:  Iowa State
9:30 p.m. (ESPNU) (3) Oklahoma vs. (6) Oklahoma State.  Predicted winner:  Oklahoma
3/14 – Semifinals
7 p.m. (ESPN/ESPN2) (1) Kansas vs. (4) Baylor.  Predicted winner:  Kansas
9 p.m. (ESPN/ESPN2) (2) Iowa State vs. (3) Oklahoma.  Predicted winner:  Iowa State
3/15 – Finals
6 p.m. (ESPN) (1) Kansas vs. (2) Iowa State.  Predicted winner:  Kansas

Big East (March 11-14; New York)
3/12 – Quarterfinals
12 p.m. (Fox Sports 1) (1) Villanova vs. (9) Marquette.  Predicted winner:  Villanova
2:30 p.m. (Fox Sports 1) (4) Providence vs. (5) St. John's.  Predicted winner:  Providence
7 p.m. (Fox Sports 1) (2) Georgetown vs. (10) Creighton.  Predicted winner:  Georgetown
9 p.m. (Fox Sports 1) (3) Butler vs. (6) Xavier.  Predicted winner:  Butler
3/13 – Semifinals
7 p.m. (Fox Sports 1) (1) Villanova vs. (4) Providence.  Predicted winner:  Villanova
9 p.m. (Fox Sports 1) (2) Georgetown vs. (3) Butler.  Predicted winner:  Butler
3/14 – Finals
8:30 p.m. (Fox Sports 1) (1) Villanova vs (3) Butler.  Predicted winner:  Butler

Big Sky (March 12-14; hosted by regular season champion (Montana))
3/12 – Quarterfinals
1 p.m. (WatchBigSky.com) (2) Eastern Washington vs. (7) Idaho.  Predicted winner:  Eastern Washington
3:30 p.m. (WatchBigSky.com) (3) Sacramento State vs. (6) Portland State.  Predicted winner:  Sacramento State
7:30 p.m. (WatchBigSky.com) (4) Northern Arizona vs. (5) Northern Colorado.  Predicted winner:  Northern Arizona
10 p.m. (WatchBigSky.com) (1) Montana vs. (8) Weber State.  Predicted winner:  Montana
3/13 – Semifinals
7:30 p.m. (WatchBigSky.com) (2) Eastern Washington vs. (3) Sacramento State.  Predicted winner:  Eastern Washington
10 p.m. (WatchBigSky.com) (1) Montana vs. (4) Northern Arizona.  Predicted winner:  Montana
3/14 – Finals
9 p.m. (ESPNU) (1) Montana vs. (2) Eastern Washington.  Predicted winner:  Eastern Washington

Big Ten (March 11-15; Chicago)
3/12 – Second Round
12 p.m. (BTN) (8) Illinois vs. (9) Michigan.  Predicted winner:  Illinois
2:30 p.m. (BTN) (5) Iowa vs. (13) Penn State.  Predicted winner:  Iowa
6:30 p.m. (ESPN2) (7) Indiana vs. (10) Northwestern.  Predicted winner:  Indiana
9 p.m. (ESPN2) (6) Ohio State vs. (11) Minnesota.  Predicted winner:  Ohio State
3/13 – Quarterfinals
12 p.m. (ESPN) (1) Wisconsin vs. (8) Illinois.  Predicted winner:  Wisconsin
2:30 p.m. (ESPN) (4) Purdue vs. (5) Iowa.  Predicted winner:  Iowa
6:30 p.m. (BTN) (2) Maryland vs. (7) Indiana.  Predicted winner:  Indiana
9 p.m. (BTN) (3) Michigan State vs. (6) Ohio State.  Predicted winner:  Ohio State
3/14 – Semifinals
1 p.m. (CBS) (1) Wisconsin vs. (5) Iowa.  Predicted winner:  Wisconsin
3:30 p.m. (CBS) (6) Ohio State vs. (7) Indiana.  Predicted winner:  Indiana
3/15 – Finals
3:30 p.m. (CBS) (1) Wisconsin vs. (7) Indiana.  Predicted winner:  Indiana

Big West (March 12-14; Anaheim)
3/12 – Quarterfinals
3 p.m. (Fox Sports West Prime Ticket) (1) UC Davis vs. (8) Cal State Northridge
5:30 p.m. (Fox Sports West Prime Ticket) (4) Long Beach State vs. (5) Hawaii.  Predicted winner:  Hawaii
9 p.m. (Fox Sports West Prime Ticket) (3) UC Irvine vs. (6) UC Riverside.  Predicted winner:  UC Irvine
11:30 p.m. (Fox Sports West Prime Ticket) (2) UC Santa Barbara vs. (7) Cal Poly
3/13 – Semifinals
9:30 p.m. (ESPNU – tape delayed) (1) UC Davis vs. (5) Hawaii.  Predicted winner:  UC Davis
11:59 p.m. (ESPN3) (2) UC Irvine vs (3) UC Santa Barbara.  Predicted winner:  UC Irvine
3/14 – Finals
11:30 p.m. (ESPN2) (1) UC Davis vs. (2) UC Irvine.  Predicted winner:  UC Davis

Conference USA (March 11-14; Birmingham, AL)
3/12 – Quarterfinals
1 p.m. (ASN) (2) UTEP vs. (10) FIU.  Predicted winner:  UTEP
3:30 p.m. (ASN) (3) Old Dominion vs. (6) Middle Tennessee.  Predicted winner:  Old Dominion
7 p.m. (ASN) (4) UAB vs. (5) Western Kentucky.  Predicted winner:  Western Kentucky
9:30 p.m. (ASN) (1) Louisiana Tech vs. (9) Rice.  Predicted winner:  Louisiana Tech
3/13 – Semifinals
4 p.m. (CBSSN) (2) UTEP vs. (3) Old Dominion.  Predicted winner:  Old Dominion
6:30 p.m. (CBSSN) (1) Louisiana Tech vs. (5) Western Kentucky.  Predicted winner:  Louisiana Tech
3/14 – Finals
3:30 p.m. (Fox Sports 1) (1) Louisiana Tech vs. (3) Old Dominion.  Predicted winner:  Louisiana Tech

MAC (March 9, 11-14; first round at campus sites of higher seed; remaining rounds in Cleveland)
3/12 – Third Round
6:30 p.m. (4) Toledo vs. (8) Eastern Michigan.  Predicted winner:  Bowling Green
9 p.m. (3) Kent State vs. (7) Akron.  Predicted winner:  Kent State
3/13 – Semifinals
6:30 p.m. (1) Central Michigan vs. (5) Bowling Green.  Predicted winner:  Central Michigan
9 p.m. (2) Buffalo vs. (3) Kent State.  Predicted winner:  Kent State
3/14 – Finals
7:30 p.m. (ESPN2) (1) Central Michigan vs. (3) Kent State.  Predicted winner:  Central Michigan

MEAC (March 9-14; Norfolk, VA)
Quarterfinals
3/12
6 p.m. (3) Maryland Eastern Shore vs. (6) Hampton.  Predicted winner:  Maryland Eastern Shore
8 p.m. (4) Howard vs. (5) Delaware State.  Predicted winner:  Howard
3/13 – Semifinals
6:00 p.m. (1) North Carolina Central vs. (4) Howard.  Predicted winner:  North Carolina Central
8:00 p.m. (2) Norfolk State vs. (3) Maryland Eastern Shore.  Predicted winner:  Norfolk State
3/14 – Final
1:00 p.m. (ESPN2) (1) North Carolina Central vs. (2) Norfolk State.  Predicted winner:  North Carolina Central

Mountain West (March 11-14; Las Vegas)
3/12 – Quarterfinals
3 p.m. (CBSSN) (1) Boise State vs. (9) Air Force.  Predicted winner:  Boise State
5:30 p.m. (CBSSN) (4) Wyoming vs. (5) Utah State.  Predicted winner:  Wyoming
9 p.m. (CBSSN) (2) San Diego State vs. (7) UNLV.  Predicted winner:  San Diego State
11:30 p.m. (CBSSN) (3) Colorado State vs. (6) Fresno State.  Predicted winner:  Colorado State
3/13 – Semifinals
9 p.m. (CBSSN) (1) Boise State vs. (4) Wyoming.  Predicted winner:  Boise State
11:30 p.m. (CBSSN) (2) San Diego State vs. (3) Colorado State.  Predicted winner:  San Diego State
3/14 – Finals
6 p.m. (CBS) (1) Boise State vs. (2) San Diego State.  Predicted winner:  San Diego State

Pac-12 (March 11-14; Las Vegas)
3/12 – Quarterfinals
3 p.m. (Pac-12 Network) (1) Arizona vs. (8) Cal.  Predicted winner:  Arizona
5:30 p.m. (Pac-12 Network) (4) UCLA vs. (12) USC.  Predicted winner:  UCLA
9 p.m. (Pac-12 Network) (2) Oregon vs. (10) Colorado.  Predicted winner:  Oregon
11:30 p.m. (ESPN) (3) Utah vs. (6) Stanford.  Predicted winner:  Utah
3/13 – Semifinals
9 p.m. (Pac-12 Network) (1) Arizona vs. (4) UCLA.  Predicted winner:  Arizona
11:30 p.m. (ESPN) (2) Oregon vs. (3) Utah.  Predicted winner:  Utah
3/14 – Finals
11 p.m. (ESPN) (1) Arizona vs. (3) Utah.  Predicted winner:  Utah

SEC (March 11-15; Nashville)
3/12 – Second Round
1 p.m. (SEC Network) (8) Florida vs. (9) Alabama.  Predicted winner:  Alabama
3 p.m. (SEC Network) (5) Texas A&M vs. (13) Auburn.  Predicted winner:  Texas A&M
7 p.m. (SEC Network) (7) Vanderbilt vs. (10) Tennessee.  Predicted winner:  Vanderbilt
9 p.m. (SEC Network) (6) Mississippi vs. (11) South Carolina.  Predicted winner:  Mississippi
3/13 – Quarterfinals
1 p.m. (SEC Network) (1) Kentucky vs. (9) Alabama.  Predicted winner:  Alabama
3 p.m. (SEC Network) (4) LSU vs. (5) Texas A&M.  Predicted winner:  LSU
7 p.m. (SEC Network) (2) Arkansas vs. (7) Vanderbilt.  Predicted winner:  Arkansas
9 p.m. (SEC Network) (3) Georgia vs. (6) Mississippi.  Predicted winner:  Georgia
3/14 – Semifinals
1 p.m. (ESPN) (1) Kentucky vs. (4) LSU.  Predicted winner:  Kentucky
3 p.m. (ESPN) (2) Arkansas vs. (3) Georgia.  Predicted winner:  Arkansas
3/15 – Finals
1 p.m. (ESPN) (1) Kentucky vs. (2) Arkansas.  Predicted winner:  Kentucky

Southland (March 11-14; Katy, TX)
3/12 – Second Round
6 p.m. (SLCDN) (4) Northwestern State vs. (5) McNeese State.  Predicted winner:  Northwestern State
8:30 p.m. (SLCDN) (3) Texas A&M-CC vs. (7) New Orleans.  Predicted winner:  Texas A&M-CC
3/13 – Semifinals
6 p.m. (ESPN3) (1) Stephen F. Austin vs. (4) Northwestern State.  Predicted winner:  Stephen F. Austin
8:30 p.m. (ESPN3) (2) Sam Houston State vs. (3) Texas A&M-CC.  Predicted winner:  Sam Houston State
3/14 – Finals
9:30 p.m. (ESPN2) (1) Stephen F. Austin vs. (2) Sam Houston State.  Predicted winner:  Sam Houston State

Sun Belt (March 12-15; New Orleans)
3/12 – First Round
6 p.m. (ESPN3) (5) UT-Arlington vs. (8) Texas State.  Predicted winner:  UT-Arlington
8:30 p.m. (ESPN3) (6) South Alabama vs. (7) UALR.  Predicted winner:  UALR
3/13 – Second Round
6 p.m. (ESPN3) (4) Louisiana Lafayette vs. (5) UT-Arlington.  Predicted winner:  Louisiana Lafayette
8:30 p.m. (ESPN3) (3) Louisiana Monroe vs. (7) UALR.  Predicted winner:  Louisiana Monroe
3/14 – Semifinals
2 p.m. (ESPN3) (1) Georgia State vs. (4) Louisiana Lafayette.  Predicted winner:  Georgia State
4:30 p.m. (ESPN3) (2) Georgia Southern vs. (3) Louisiana Monroe.  Predicted winner:  Georgia Southern
3/15 – Finals
1 p.m. (ESPN2) (1) Georgia State vs. (2) Georgia Southern.  Predicted winner:  Georgia Southern

SWAC (March 10-14; Houston)
Quarterfinals
3/12
3:30 p.m. (3) Southern** vs. (6) Alabama A&M.  Predicted winner:  Southern
9:30 p.m. (4) Prairie View A&M vs. (5) Jackson State.  Predicted winner:  Prairie View A&M
3/13 – Semifinals
3:30 p.m. (2) Alabama State vs. (3) Southern.  Predicted winner:  Alabama State
9:30 p.m. (1) Texas Southern vs. (4) Prairie View A&M.  Predicted winner:  Texas Southern
3/14 – Finals
6:30 p.m. (ESPNU) (1) Texas Southern vs. (2) Alabama State.  Predicted winner:  Texas Southern
**Southern and Alabama State are both ineligible for post-season play this year, so neither will got to the NCAA Tournament if they win the SWAC Tournament.  If one of the ineligible teams wins the tournament, the team among the seven eligible teams that advances the furthest in the tournament will receive the conference's NCAA tournament bid.  If there is a tie (for example, all remaining tournament-eligible teams are eliminated in the same round), the automatic berth will go to the highest-seeded team.

WAC (March 12-14; Las Vegas)
3/12 – Quarterfinals
5 p.m. (4) Cal State Bakersfield vs. (5) Utah Valley.  Predicted winner:  Cal State Bakersfield
7:30 p.m. (2) UMKC vs. Texas-Pan American.  Predicted winner:  UMKC
10 p.m. (3) Seattle vs. (6) Chicago State.  Predicted winner:  Seattle
3/13 – Semifinals
9 p.m. (1) New Mexico State vs. (4) Cal State Bakersfield.  Predicted winner:  New Mexico State
11:30 p.m. (2) UMKC vs. (3) Seattle.  Predicted winner:  Seattle
3/14 – Finals
11 p.m. (ESPNU) (1) New Mexico State vs. (3) Seattle.  Predicted winner:  New Mexico State

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