Tuesday, March 31, 2015

Tuesday Top Ten: Fun Facts About This Year's Final Four

It was another exciting weekend of college basketball.  The Elite Eight was one of the more competitive ones in recent memory. 
-In the Midwest, 1-seed Kentucky got some late luck to come from behind and beat 3-seed Notre Dame 68-66.  I'm pretty sure Jerian Grant will be replaying that last-second 3-point miss in his head for the rest of his life.
-In the West, in a rematch of last year's Elite Eight, 1-seed Wisconsin held off 2-seed Arizona 85-78 to earn the Badgers their first trip to consecutive Final Fours in school history
-In the East, 7-seed Michigan State beat 4-seed Louisville 76-70 in OT.
-In the South, 1-seed Duke pulled away from 2-seed Gonzaga in the last few minutes to secure a 66-52 win.

It should be a really competitive Final Four, and I honestly think all four teams have a shot.  Also, I should note, fuck Kentucky.  

Here are the Final Four game times this Saturday (Eastern).  Both games are on TBS:
(S1) Duke vs. (E7) Michigan State – 6:09 p.m.
(W1) Wisconsin vs. (MW1) Kentucky – 8:49 p.m.

As I do this time of year, I'm going to drop some Final Four statistical knowledge on you.  Get ready for it.

10 (tie).  By squeaking by Notre Dame, Kentucky is now 38-0, becoming the 13th team in NCAA Tournament history to reach the Final Four without a loss.  Of the previous 12, 7 have won a national title, the last to do so, of course, being the 1976 Indiana Hoosiers (who would manhandle this year's Kentucky team, by the way).  The last team to enter the Final Four undefeated was the 1991 UNLV Runnin' Rebels, who lost in the semifinal game to eventual national champion Duke.  Here is a list of teams that have made it to the Final Four undefeated. 
1956 San Francisco*
1957 North Carolina*
1961 Ohio State**
1964 UCLA*
1967 UCLA*
1968 Houston***
1972 UCLA*
1973 UCLA*
1976 Indiana*
1976 Rutgers***
1979 Indiana State**
1991 UNLV***
* won the national title
** lost in the title game
*** lost in the Final Four

10 (tie).  With Michigan State's win Sunday, Tom Izzo became the sixth coach in NCAA history to take his team to 7 or more Final Fours, and with Duke's win Sunday, Mike Krzyzewski tied John Wooden for the most Final Four coaching appearances.  Here are the coaches who have been to 7 or more Final Fours:
1 (tie).  Mike Krzyzewski - Duke (12)
1 (tie).  John Wooden - UCLA (12)
3.  Dean Smith - North Carolina (11)
4 (tie).  Tom Izzo - Michigan State (7)
4 (tie).  Rick Pitino - Providence, Kentucky, Louisville (7)
4 (tie).  Roy Williams - Kansas, North Carolina (7)

10 (tie).  All four Final Four coaches have coached in at least one Final Four.  This is only the 6th time in NCAA Tournament history that all four coaches have previously coached in a Final Four.  Here's when it's happened:
2015:  John Calipari (Kentucky), Tom Izzo (Michigan State), Mike Krzyzewski (Duke), Bo Ryan (Wisconsin)
2012:  John Calipari (Kentucky), Roy Williams (Kansas), Thad Matta (Ohio State), Rick Pitino (Louisville)
1993:  Dean Smith (North Carolina), Steve Fisher (Michigan), Rick Pitino (Kentucky), Roy Williams (Kansas)
1984:  John Thompson (Georgetown), Guy Lewis (Houston), Joe B. Hall (Kentucky), Terry Hollan (Virginia)
1968:  John Wooden (UCLA), Dean Smith (North Carolina), Guy Lewis (Houston), Fred Taylor (Ohio State)
1951:  Adolph Rupp (Kentucky), Jack Gardner (Kansas State), Henry Iba (Oklahoma A&M), Harry Combes (Illinois)

10 (tie).  In addition, three coaches –- John Calipari, Tom Izzo, and Mike Krzyzewski -- have won a national title.  This is only the 4th time in NCAA Tournament history that three or more coaches in a Final Four have previously coached an NCAA championship team.
2015:  John Calipari (Kentucky), Tom Izzo (Michigan State), and Mike Krzyzewski (Duke)
2009:  Roy Williams (North Carolina), Tom Izzo (Michigan State), and Jim Calhoun (Connecticut)
2001:  Mike Krzyzewski (Duke), Lute Olson (Arizona), and Tom Izzo (Michigan State)
1992:  Mike Krzyzewski (Duke), Steve Fisher (Michigan), and Bob Knight (Indiana)

10 (tie).  For the second year in a row, each of the Final Four teams has already won an NCAA title.  This is only the ninth time this has happened since the NCAA tournament began in 1939.  The other years in which this occurred were 1992, 1993, 1995, 1998, 2007, 2009, 2012, and 2014.

10 (tie).  Based on past performance of national titles per Final Four appearances, here is how the teams stack up, as far as percentage of national titles per Final Fours.  Not that great:
1.  Kentucky:  50% (8/16) (I'm including the 1949 Final Four and national title, even though that should be considered vacated due to a point-shaving scandal, as well as the Final Fours in 2011, 2012, and 2014, and national championship in 2012, even though those will undoubtedly be vacated at some point, since John Calipari is incapable of taking a team to the Final Four without it later being vacated)
2.  Wisconsin:  33% (1/3)
3.  Duke:  27% (4/15)
4.  Michigan State:  25% (2/8)

10 (tie).  There are 9 schools with 8 or more Final Fours:  UCLA (18), North Carolina (18), Kentucky (17), Duke (16), Kansas (14), Ohio State (11), Louisville (10), Michigan State (9), and Indiana (8).  This is the 30th year in a row and the 58th year out of the last 59 that at least one of those 9 teams has been in the Final Four.  In fact, one of those teams has been in all but 8 of 76 Final Fours (1941, 1943, 1947, 1950, 1954, 1955, 1956, and 1985).  This is also the 12th time that a Final Four will feature three of those schools.  Interestingly enough, each of the 12 times it has happened, the combination of teams has never been the same.  Here is when three of the teams have been in the Final Four at the same time:
2015:  Duke, Kentucky, Michigan State
2012:  Kansas, Kentucky, Louisville, Ohio State
2008:  Kansas, North Carolina, UCLA
2005:  Louisville, Michigan State, North Carolina
1999:  Duke, Michigan State, Ohio State
1993:  Kansas, Kentucky, North Carolina
1991:  Duke, Kansas, North Carolina
1986:  Duke, Kansas, Louisville
1975:  Kentucky, Louisville, UCLA
1972:  Louisville, North Carolina, UCLA
1968:  North Carolina, Ohio State, UCLA
1957:  Kansas, Michigan State, North Carolina

10 (tie).  Michigan State is only the third 7-seed to ever advance to the Final Four.  Virginia advanced in 1984 and lost in the semis, and, of course, UConn won it all last year as a 7-seed.

9.  The 15 combined national titles (which will become 16 next Monday) is also relatively high.  If you look at every year since the tournament began and count all of the Final Four schools' national titles (whether it was won that year, prior, subsequent, or later vacated), this will be only the 20th time (out of 76) that the Final Four schools' combined national titles is 14 or greater.  Of course, everything is skewed whenever UCLA is in the Final Four, since they have 11 titles, so below is the list, with the non-UCLA Final Fours in bold.  As you can see, this is only the 6th time the Final Four schools' combined national titles is 14 or greater when UCLA was not in the Final Four.
1.  1975:  23 - UCLA (11), Kentucky (8), Louisville (3), Syracuse (1)
2 (tie).  2008: 19 - Kansas (3), Memphis (0), UCLA (11), North Carolina (5)
2 (tie).  1995:  19 - UCLA (11), Arkansas (1), North Carolina (5), Oklahoma State (2)
2 (tie).  1972:  19 – UCLA (11), Florida State (0), North Carolina (5), Louisville (3)
5 (tie).  1993:  17 - North Carolina (5), Michigan (1), Kentucky (8), Kansas (3)
5 (tie).  1976:  17 – Indiana (5), Michigan (1), UCLA (11), Rutgers (0)
5 (tie).  1974:  17 – NC State (2), Marquette (1), UCLA (11), Kansas (3)
5 (tie).  1968:  17 – UCLA (11), North Carolina (5), Ohio State (1), Houston (0)
9 (tie).  1973:  16 – UCLA (11), Memphis State (0), Indiana (5), Providence (0)
9 (tie).  1969:  16 – UCLA (11), Purdue (0), Drake (0), North Carolina (5)
9 (tie).  1967:  16 – UCLA (11), Dayton (0), Houston (0), North Carolina (5)
9 (tie).  1964:  16 – UCLA (11), Duke (4), Michigan (1), Kansas State (0)
13 (tie).  2014:  15 – Connecticut (4), Kentucky (8), Florida (2), Wisconsin (1)
13 (tie).  2012:  15 – Kentucky (8), Kansas (3), Louisville (3), Ohio State (1)
13 (tie).  2007: 15 - Florida (2), Ohio State (1), UCLA (11), Georgetown (1)
13 (tie).  1998:  15 - Kentucky (8), Utah (1), North Carolina (5), Stanford (1)
13 (tie).  1971:  15 – UCLA (11), Villanova (1), Western Kentucky (0), Kansas (3)
18 (tie).  1962:  14 – Cincinnati (2), Ohio State (1), Wake Forest (0), UCLA (11)
18 (tie).  1997:  14 - Arizona (1), Kentucky (8), Minnesota (0), North Carolina (5)
18 (tie).  1980:  14 – Louisville (3), UCLA (11), Purdue (0), Iowa (0)

8.  Moving on to another worthless statistic, if you just look at how many titles the schools had won up to that point (and not including that year's title), this year is even rarer.  Here are the top ten years for number of prior national titles for the Final Four teams (with the number of titles up to, but not including, that year):
1.  2008: 17 - Kansas (2), Memphis (0), UCLA (11), North Carolina (4)
2.  1995:  16 - UCLA (10), Arkansas (1), North Carolina (3), Oklahoma State (2)
3.  2015:  15 – Kentucky (8), Duke (4), Michigan State (2), Wisconsin (1)
4 (tie).  2014:  14 – Kentucky (8), Connecticut (3), Florida (2), Wisconsin (1)
4 (tie).  2007: 14 - Florida (1), Ohio State (1), UCLA (11), Georgetown (1)
6 (tie).  2012:  13 - Kentucky (7), Kansas (3), Louisville (2), Ohio State (1)
6 (tie).  1975:  13 - UCLA (9), Kentucky (4), Louisville (0), Syracuse (0)
8.  1976:  12 – Indiana (2), Michigan (0), UCLA (10), Rutgers (0)
9 (tie).  2006: 11 - Florida (0), UCLA (11), LSU (0), George Mason (0)
9 (tie).  1998:  11 - Kentucky (6), Utah (1), North Carolina (3), Stanford (1)

7.  The Big Ten has two teams in the Final Four for the 8th time, which is by far the most times one conference has had two teams in the same Final Four (the ACC, Big East, and SEC are tied for second with 4 times).  It is also the third year in a row and 23rd time overall that one conference has had two or more teams in the same Final Four.  Here is when it has happened (note:  the NCAA Tournament began giving out at-large bids in 1975, so that was the first year there could have been more than one team from the same conference in an NCAA Tournament):
2015:  Big Ten - Michigan State, Wisconsin
2014:  SEC – Florida, Kentucky
2013:  Big East – Louisville, Syracuse
2009:  Big East – Connecticut, Villanova
2006:  SEC – Florida, LSU
2005:  Big Ten – Illinois, Michigan State
2003:  Big 12 – Kansas, Texas
2002:  Big 12 – Kansas, Oklahoma
2001:  ACC – Duke, Maryland
2000:  Big Ten – Michigan State, Wisconsin
1999:  Big Ten – Michigan State, Ohio State
1996:  SEC – Kentucky, Mississippi State
1994:  SEC – Arkansas, Florida
1992:  Big Ten – Indiana, Michigan
1991:  ACC – Duke, North Carolina
1990:  ACC – Duke, Georgia Tech
1989:  Big Ten – Illinois, Michigan
1988:  Big 8 – Kansas, Oklahoma
1987:  Big East – Providence, Syracuse
1985:  Big East – Georgetown, St. John's, Villanova
1981:  ACC – North Carolina, Virginia
1980:  Big Ten – Iowa, Purdue
1976:  Big Ten – Indiana, Michigan

If Wisconsin and Michigan State both win their semifinal games, it would be the 4th time two teams from the same conference have met in the championship game.  Thus far it has happened in 1976 (Indiana over Michigan), 1985 (Villanova over Georgetown), and 1988 (Kansas over Oklahoma).

6.  Since 2000, the Big Ten has sent a representative to the Final Four 14 times, the most of any conference in that span.
1.  Big Ten – 14 (Michigan State (6), Wisconsin (3), Ohio State (2), Indiana (1), Illinois (1), Michigan (1))
2.  ACC – 11 (Duke (4), North Carolina (4), Maryland (2), Georgia Tech (1))
3.  Big East – 10 (Connecticut (3), Louisville (2), Syracuse (2), Georgetown (1), Villanova (1), West Virginia (1))
4.  SEC – 9 (Florida (4), Kentucky (4), LSU (1))
5.  Big 12 – 7 (Kansas (4), Oklahoma (1), Oklahoma State (1), Texas (1))
6.  Pac-10/Pac-12 - 4 (UCLA (3), Arizona (1))
7.  Conference USA – 3 (Louisville (1), Marquette (1), Memphis (1)
8 (tie).  Colonial – 2 (George Mason, VCU)
8 (tie).  Horizon – 2 (Butler (2))
10 (tie).  American – 1 (Connecticut)
10 (tie).  Missouri Valley – 1 (Wichita State)

Of course, the Big Ten hasn't won a title since Michigan State did so in 2000, while the American (1), ACC (5), Big East (4), Big 12 (1), and SEC (3) have all won titles since then, so it's all relative.

5.  For only the 14th time in NCAA Tournament history, none of the Final Four teams is located west of the Mississippi River.  Oddly, all of these 14 occurrences have come since 1979.  Here are the years it has happened:  1979, 1981, 1985, 1989, 1992, 1996, 1999, 2000, 2005, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2014, and 2015.

4.  The second semifinal game, between Kentucky and Wisconsin, will be a rematch of last year's semifinal matchup between the two schools, when Kentucky won 74-73 on an Aaron Harrison 3-pointer with 5.7 seconds left.  This is only the third time in NCAA Tournament history that two teams will meet each other in the Final Four in consecutive years.  History doesn't bode well for the Badgers.  Both other times there have been semifinal rematches, the same team has won both years:
1960:  Cincinnati vs. California (Cal won both games)
1968:  UCLA vs. Houston (UCLA won both games)

3.  There are three #1 seeds in the Final Four for the first time since 2008 (the only year there have ever been four 1-seeds in the Final Four).  Including this year, since seeding began in 1979, three or more 1-seeds have advanced to the Final Four only five times.  Here is a breakdown of how many #1 seeds have advanced to the Final Four each year since 1979.
2015: 3 (Duke, Kentucky, Wisconsin)
2014: 1 (Florida)
2013: 1 (Louisville*)
2012: 1 (Kentucky*)
2011: 0
2010: 1 (Duke*)
2009: 2 (North Carolina*, Connecticut)
2008: 4 (Kansas*, Memphis**, North Carolina, UCLA)
2007: 2 (Florida*, Ohio State**)
2006: 0
2005: 2 (North Carolina*, Illinois**)
2004: 1 (Duke)
2003: 1 (Texas)
2002: 2 (Maryland*, Kansas)
2001: 2 (Duke*, Michigan State)
2000: 1 (Michigan State*)
1999: 3 (Connecticut*, Duke**, Michigan State)
1998: 1 (North Carolina)
1997: 3 (Kentucky**, North Carolina, Minnesota)
1996: 2 (Kentucky*, Massachusetts)
1995: 1 (UCLA*)
1994: 1 (Arkansas*)
1993: 3 (North Carolina*, Michigan**, Kentucky)
1992: 1 (Duke*)
1991: 2 (UNLV, North Carolina)
1990: 1 (UNLV*)
1989: 1 (Illinois)
1988: 2 (Oklahoma**, Arizona)
1987: 2 (Indiana*, UNLV)
1986: 2 (Duke**, Kansas)
1985: 2 (Georgetown**, St. John's)
1984: 2 (Georgetown*, Kentucky)
1983: 2 (Houston**, Louisville)
1982: 2 (North Carolina*, Georgetown**)
1981: 2 (LSU, Virginia)
1980: 0
1979: 1 (Indiana State**)
*Champions
**Advanced to championship game

2.  The average seed for this year's Final Four is 2.5, which is the first time since 2012 that the average seed as been that low and the 19th time since seeding began in 1979 that the average seed is 2.5 or lower.  Here are the average seeds for the Final Four since 1979:
2015: 2.5
2014: 4.5
2013: 4.5
2012: 2.25
2011: 6.5
2010: 3.25
2009: 1.75
2008: 1
2007: 1.5
2006: 5
2005: 2.75
2004: 2
2003: 2.25
2002: 2.25
2001: 1.75
2000: 5.5
1999: 1.75
1998: 2.25
1997: 1.75
1996: 2.75
1995: 2.25
1994: 2
1993: 1.25
1992: 3.25
1991: 1.75
1990: 3
1989: 2.25
1988: 2.5
1987: 2.5
1986: 3.75
1985: 3
1984: 2.75
1983: 3
1982: 2.75
1981: 1.75
1980: 5.25
1979: 3.5

1.  Including Michigan State this year, 27 teams seeded 5 or higher have advanced to the Final Four since seeding began in 1979.  Of the prior 26 teams, only 4 have won it all, another 7 have been runners up, and the remaining 15 have lost in the semis.  Here are the years in which there have been any teams seeded 5 or higher in the Final Four since 1979:
2015:  1: 7-seed Michigan State
2014:  2: 7-seed UConn* and 8-seed Kentucky**
2013:  1: 9-seed Wichita State
2011:  2: 8-seed Butler** and 11-seed VCU
2010:  2: 5-seeds Butler** and Michigan State
2006:  1: 11-seed George Mason
2005:  1: 5-seed Michigan State
2002:  1: 5-seed Indiana**
2000:  3: 5-seed Florida**, 8-seeds North Carolina and Wisconsin
1996:  1: 5-seed Mississippi State
1992:  1: 6-seed Michigan**
1988:  1: 6-seed Kansas*
1987:  1: 6-seed Providence
1986:  1: 11-seed LSU
1985:  1: 8-seed Villanova*
1984:  1: 7-seed Virginia
1983:  1: 6-seed NC State*
1982:  1: 6-seed Houston
1980:  3: 5-seed Purdue, 6-seed Iowa, 8-seed UCLA**
1979:  1: 9-seed Penn
*Champions
**Advanced to championship game

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