Final Big Ten Tournament Seeding Post and NCAA Tournament Resumes

Well, the Big Ten Tournament seeding has been set.  On Saturday, Michigan State gave the Hoosiers a chance to tie the game with 2 seconds left, but Yogi Ferrell (an 85% free throw shooter) missed the second of two free throws, and IU lost to the Spartans, pushing IU to the brink of the bubble.  Meanwhile, Purdue beat Illinois in what was basically an NCAA Tournament bubble elimination game.  After a rundown of the Big Ten Tournament bracket and a look at my initial seeding predictions (and how wrong I was), I'll analyze Indiana, Illinois, and Purdue's tournament resumes.

Here is the Big Ten Tournament slate, with my predictions.  Again, please remember that I am very biased.

3/11 – First Round

4:30 p.m. (ESPN2) (12) Nebraska vs. (13) Penn State.  Predicted winner:  Nebraska

7 p.m. (BTN) (11) Minnesota vs. (14) Rutgers.  Predicted winner:  Minnesota

3/12 – Second Round

12 p.m. (BTN) (8) Illinois vs. (9) Michigan.  Predicted winner:  Illinois

2:30 p.m. (BTN) (5) Iowa vs. (12) Nebraska.  Predicted winner:  Iowa

6:30 p.m. (ESPN2) (7) Indiana vs. (10) Northwestern.  Predicted winner:  Indiana

9 p.m. (ESPN2) (6) Ohio State vs. (11) Minnesota.  Predicted winner:  Ohio State

3/13 – Quarterfinals

12 p.m. (ESPN) (1) Wisconsin vs. (8) Illinois.  Predicted winner:  Wisconsin

2:30 p.m. (ESPN) (4) Purdue vs. (5) Iowa.  Predicted winner:  Iowa

6:30 p.m. (BTN) (2) Maryland vs. (7) Indiana.  Predicted winner:  Indiana

9 p.m. (BTN) (3) Michigan State vs. (6) Ohio State.  Predicted winner:  Ohio State

3/14 – Semifinals

1 p.m. (CBS) (1) Wisconsin vs. (5) Iowa.  Predicted winner:  Wisconsin

3:30 p.m. (CBS) (6) Ohio State vs. (7) Indiana.  Predicted winner:  Indiana

3/15 – Finals

3:30 p.m. (CBS) (1) Wisconsin vs. (7) Indiana.  Predicted winner:  Indiana

My first Big Ten Tournament seeding predictions this year came on February 4.  Things didn't go quite as I had planned, especially for the Hoosiers.  I was spot-on with respect to Minnesota though, wasn't I?  Here were my predictions for seeding and record, followed by how off I was:

1.  Wisconsin (predicted record: 15-3; actual record: 16-2; difference in seeding:  none)

2.  Maryland (predicted record: 15-3; actual record: 14-4; difference in seeding: none)

3.  Ohio State (predicted record: 13-5; actual record: 11-7; difference in seeding: -3)

4.  Indiana (predicted record: 13-5; actual record: 9-9; difference in seeding: -3)

5.  Michigan State (predicted record: 12-6; actual record: 12-6; difference in seeding: +2)

6.  Michigan (predicted record: 12-6; actual record: 8-10; difference in seeding: -3)

7.  Purdue (predicted record: 10-8; actual record: 12-6; difference in seeding: +3)

8.  Iowa (predicted record: 10-8; actual record: 12-6; difference in seeding: +3)

9.  Illinois (predicted record: 7-11; actual record: 9-9; difference in seeding: +1)

10.  Nebraska (predicted record: 7-11; actual record: 5-13; difference in seeding: -2)

11.  Minnesota (predicted record: 6-12; actual record: 6-12; difference in seeding: none)

12.  Northwestern (predicted record: 2-16; actual record: 6-12; difference in seeding: +2)

13.  Rutgers (predicted record: 2-16; actual record: 2-16; difference in seeding: -1)

14.  Penn State (predicted record: 2-16; actual record: 4-14; difference in seeding: +1)

As I did last Friday, I'm going to look at the NCAA Tournament resumes for the three Big Ten teams that are not "locks" for the NCAA Tournament according to ESPN.com's Bubble Watch:  Indiana, Illinois, and Purdue.  An * means a neutral court victory. 

Purdue

RPI:  56

Joe Lunardi's current Bracketology projection:  11-seed (Last Four Byes)

Overall record:  20-11

Big Ten record:  12-6

Record in last 10 games:  7-3

Strength of schedule:  72

Non-conference strength of schedule:  217

Good wins:  4 (Iowa (39), Ohio State (40), NC State (43), BYU* (44))

Bad losses:  2 (Gardner-Webb (140), North Florida (163))

Record vs. RPI Top 25:  0-3

Record vs. RPI Top 50:  4-5

Record vs. RPI 51-100:  5-4

Record vs. RPI 100-150:  3-1

Record vs. RPI 150+:  8-1

Record vs. teams with better RPI:  6-6

Record vs. teams with worse RPI:  13-5

Record vs. top 7 Big Ten teams:  4-4

Record vs. bottom 7 Big Ten teams:  8-2

Comments:  For Purdue, it will all come down to that weak schedule and those bad losses.  Sure, they've gone 12-6 in the Big Ten, but they played a weak conference schedule, and they're best win is a 4-point home win over Iowa.  Their 2-point home win over Ohio State happened when the Buckeyes were without second-leading scorer Marc Loving.  Both IU and Illinois have three better "good wins" than Purdue's best win.  That said, the Boilermakers have the 4-seed in the Big Ten Tournament, which means, barring a miracle run by Nebraska, Purdue won't have another bad loss to add to their shaky resume.  This Purdue team is kind of in the same situation as the 2005 IU team, which was a 4-seed in the Big Ten Tournament.  The Hoosiers had a respectable 10-6 conference record and an RPI of 60, but had a bad overall record (15-13), lost to 5-seed Minnesota in the Big Ten Tournament quarterfinals, and had a 4-10 record against the RPI Top 50 (although the wins included 2 top 20 wins).  While lobbying for why he thought his team should get into the NCAA Tournament, then-Hoosiers coach Mike Davis (and many Indiana faithful) kept harping on the fact that IU finished 4th in the Big Ten (which was a tough league that year, featuring three Elite Eight teams and two Final Four teams).  IU was left out of the NCAA Tournament.  Unlike this year's Purdue team, which has a decent record as a result of a very weak schedule, IU had a bad record due to a brutal schedule.  Nonetheless, there are a lot of parallels between the two teams' situations, and Purdue may find itself in the same position as the 2005 Hoosiers if it loses its first game in the Big Ten Tournament this Friday.

Number of wins in Big Ten Tournament needed to get into NCAA Tournament:  1.  Depending on how other bubble teams do, the Boilers may be able to get in even with a quarterfinal loss (assuming it is to Iowa, not Nebraska), but I think a quarterfinal win would all but secure them a bid.

Indiana

RPI:  57

Joe Lunardi's current Bracketology projection:  12-seed (Last Four In)

Overall record:  19-12

Big Ten record:  9-9

Record in last 10 games:  4-6

Strength of schedule:  25

Non-conference strength of schedule:  104

Good wins:  4 (Maryland (9), SMU (15), Butler* (25), Ohio State (40))

Bad losses:  1 (at Northwestern (111))

Record vs. RPI Top 25:  3-4

Record vs. RPI Top 50:  4-8

Record vs. RPI 51-100:  4-3

Record vs. RPI 100-150:  3-1

Record vs. RPI 150+:  8-0

Record vs. teams with better RPI:  4-10

Record vs. teams with worse RPI:  15-2

Record vs. top 7 Big Ten teams:  2-8

Record vs. bottom 7 Big Ten teams:  7-1

Comments:  Thanks to Illinois's loss to Purdue on Saturday (after IU lost its heartbreaker to Michigan State), IU clinched the 7-seed in the Big Ten Tournament.  This is potentially huge for the Hoosiers because it means, if they are able to win their first game against Northwestern, they will face Maryland in the quarterfinals instead of Wisconsin.  IU beat Maryland by 19 in Assembly Hall and missed a last-second 3 that would have beaten the Terps in College Park, so Maryland is definitely beatable.  That said, I know this Hoosiers team is reeling right now, so I'm not holding my breath.  Overall, I think IU's tournament resume is better than Illinois's and Purdue's, but if the Selection Committee looks at how teams have played over the last month, IU is in trouble, unless they can make it to the semis.

Number of wins in Big Ten Tournament needed to get into NCAA Tournament:  2.  I think IU can still get in to the NCAA Tournament with one win, depending on what some other bubble teams do in their conference tournaments, but two wins would solidify a berth for the Hoosiers.

Illinois

RPI:  59

Joe Lunardi's current Bracketology projection:  Out (Next Four Out)

Overall record:  19-12

Big Ten record:  9-9

Record in last 10 games:  6-4

Strength of schedule:  66

Non-conference strength of schedule:  163

Good wins:  3 (Maryland (9), Baylor* (10), at Michigan State (27))

Bad losses:  1 (at Nebraska (131))

Record vs. RPI Top 25:  2-2

Record vs. RPI Top 50:  3-6

Record vs. RPI 51-100:  2-5

Record vs. RPI 100-150:  6-1

Record vs. RPI 150+:  8-0

Record vs. teams with better RPI:  4-7

Record vs. teams with worse RPI:  16-4

Record vs. top 7 Big Ten teams:  3-6

Record vs. bottom 7 Big Ten teams:  6-3

Comments:  Illinois has kind of done what it should have done throughout the season by beating teams it should beat and losing to better teams, with some aberrations both ways here and there.  They split with Purdue and lost in Champaign to IU in their only meeting with the Hoosiers, but their three "good wins" are better than Purdue's best win.  That said, without a little run in the Big Ten Tournament, I think the Illini will be NIT bound.

Number of wins in Big Ten Tournament needed to get into NCAA Tournament:  2.  If the Illini win two games in the Big Ten Tournament, that will mean that they will have had to have beaten Wisconsin in the quarterfinals, which would give them 3 wins over RPI Top 10 teams.