Saturday, March 14, 2015

Updated Championship Week Predictions

More bubbles were burst yesterday, and 5 top seeds went down.  Today, we have 22 more games, and championship games beginning as early as 11 a.m. Eastern and as late as 11:30 p.m. Eastern.  So enjoy some basketball while you are drinking yourself into a coma today.  (Please don't drink yourself into a coma today.)  Here is a rundown of all of the semifinals that happened yesterday, all of the quarterfinals in the Big Ten, and anything else I found to be noteworthy:
  • In the Big Ten quarterfinals, the Hoosiers were within 2 of Maryland with less than a minute left, but couldn't get over the hump and lost 75-69, which may or may not knock IU out of the NCAA Tournament.  Based on how many other bubble teams lost the last few days, I'm hoping not.  Wisconsin got all it could handle from Michigan, but ended up pulling away for a 71-60 win.  Purdue squeaked by Penn State, 64-59, just as the Boilers have seemed to do in most of their wins.  In my opinion, their 12-6 Big Ten record is a little misleading because Purdue is not that good.  And yes, I'm bitter.  Fuck Purdue.  Finally, 3-seed Michigan State beat 6-seed Ohio State.
  • In the ACC semis, 5-seed UNC took down top seed Virginia.  That may knock Virginia out of a 1-seed in the NCAA Tournament, depending on how some other conference tournaments shake out.  Failing to seize on a huge opportunity, 2-seed Duke lost to 3-seed Notre Dame in the other semi, potentially costing the Blue Devils a 1-seed in the Big Dance.  Both UNC and ND are obviously locks for the NCAA Tournament.  UNC will be going to its 46th NCAA Tournament, and will be going to its 34th.
  • In the A-10 quarters, 5-seed VCU continued to wreak havoc, beating 4-seed Richmond and putting a nail in the Spiders' NCAA coffin.  Meanwhile, 1-seed Davidson needed a last-second shot to beat 9-seed LaSalle.
  • In the Big 12 semis, 1-seed Kansas beat 4-seed Baylor 62-52, while 2-seed Iowa State got a huge break as 3-seed Oklahoma missed a layup that would have tied the game with 3 seconds left.  Both teams are locks for the NCAA Tournament.  Kansas will be going to its 44th NCAA Tournament, and Iowa State will be going to its 17th.
  • In the Big East semis, top seed Villanova spurned 4-seed Providence's upset bid, beating the Friars 63-61, while 6-seed Xavier held off 2-seed Georgetown 65-63.  Both of these teams are also locks for the NCAA Tournament, with the Wildcats going to their 34th, and the Musketeers will be going to their 25th.
  • In the Big Sky semis, 2-seed Eastern Washington took down 3-seed Sacramento State, while top seed (and tournament host) Montana hit a layup with 1 second left to beat 4-seed Northern Arizona 61-59.  The Eagles are going for their 2nd NCAA Tournament berth and first since 2004, while the Grizzlies are going for their 11th NCAA Tournament appearance and first since 2013.
  • In the Big West semis, 5-seed Hawaii upset top seed UC Davis, while 2-seed UC Irvine beat 3-seed UC Santa Barbara in OT in the other semi.  The Rainbow Warriors will be playing for their 5th NCAA Tournament appearance and first since 2002, and the Anteaters (yes, the Anteaters) will be playing for their first ever NCAA Tournament berth.
  • In Conference USA semis, the top two seeds fell.  6-seed Middle Tennessee State continued its run, beating 2-seed UTEP, while top seed Louisiana Tech lost to 4-seed UAB.  That will likely knock Louisiana Tech out of the NCAA Tournament picture.  The Blue Raiders will be going for their 8th NCAA Tournament appearance and first since 2013, while the Blazers are going for their 15th and first since 2011.
  • In the miggity miggity miggity miggity miggity miggity MAC, top seed Central Michigan beat 4-seed Toledo, and 2-seed Buffalo beat 7-seed Akron to advance to the final.  The Chippewas are playing for their 5th NCAA Tournament berth and first since 2003, and the Bulls are playing for their first ever NCAA Tournament berth (although they may get an at-large bid regardless).
  • In the MEAC semis, top-seed North Carolina Central –- which had gone 16-0 in the regular season in the MEAC –- lost to 5-seed Delaware State, while 6-seed Hampton continues to shock the world, beating 2-seed Norfolk State.  The Hornets will be going for their 2nd ever NCAA Tournament appearance and first since 2005, while the Pirates are playing for their 5th appearance and first since 2011.
  • In the Mountain West semis, 4-seed Wyoming upset 1-seed Boise State in OT, which may spell doom for the Broncos' NCAA hopes.  In the other semi, 2-seed San Diego State topped 3-seed Colorado State.  The Cowboys will be playing for their 15th NCAA Tournament berth and first since 2002.  The Aztecs are an NCAA Tournament lock, and they will be going to their 11th NCAA Tournament and 6th in a row.  Last year, they went to the Sweet 16 for the second time in school history.
  • In the Pac-12 semis, top seed Arizona beat 4-seed UCLA, which keeps the Bruins on the bubble.  In the other semi, 2-seed Oregon beat 3-seed Utah 67-64 on a buzzer beater.  Both teams are locks for the NCAA Tournament.  The Wildcats will be going to their 31st, and the Ducks will be going to their 14th.
  • In the SEC, 13-seed Auburn continues its destruction of its horrible conference bubble team opponents, this time dispatching 4-seed LSU and likely dispatching LSU to the NIT in the process.  As thanks for their three wins in a row, Auburn gets to face #1 Kentucky in the semis.  Can the War Eagles do the unthinkable?  Probably not.
  • In the Southland semis, 1-seed Stephen F. Austin beat 4-seed Northwestern State, and 2-seed Sam Houston State came from behind to beat 3-seed Texas A&M Corpus Christi.  Both teams will be going for their 3rd NCAA Tournament appearance, with the Lumberjacks going for their second in a row (as you may recall, they were a 12-seed in last year's NCAA Tournament and beat 5-seed VCU), and the Bearkats haven't been since 2010.
  • In the SWAC semis, top seed Texas Southern beat 4-seed Prairie View A&M.  Meanwhile, 3-seed Southern beat 2-seed Alabama State to advance to the finals, but the championship game is a moot point because Southern is not eligible for post-season play, which means the Tigers will be going to the NCAA Tournament regardless of the result of the title game.  This will be their 6th NCAA Tournament and second in a row.
  • In the wiggity wiggity wiggity wiggity wiggity wiggity WAC semis, 1-seed New Mexico State took down 4-seed Cal State Bakersfield 57-52, and 3-seed Seattle topped 2-seed UMKC (whose mascot, by the way, is the Kangaroo).  The Aggies will be playing for their 19th NCAA Tournament berth and fourth in a row, while the Redhawks will be playing for their 12th NCAA Tournament berth, first since 1969, and first since rejoining Division 1 in 2009 after nearly 40 years.  Of course, Seattle was a relative power in the '50s and '60s, with a variety of future NBA players, most notably Elgin Baylor, who led Seattle to its only Final Four in 1958, where they lost to the overtly racist Adolf Rupp and his Kentucky Wildcats, who were most likely cheating. 
  • Here are the bubble teams that won yesterday:  Buffalo, Purdue, Temple, Tulsa, VCU
  • Here are the bubble teams that lost yesterday:  Boise State, Colorado State, Indiana, Louisiana Tech, LSU, Richmond, UCLA
  • 19 tournaments have games today, and there are 15 bids up for grabs today (including the one-game playoff between Harvard and Yale in the Ivy League).

Here are the tournaments with games today, bids up for grab today, who has already clinched an automatic berth, and my predictions for the remaining conference tournaments. 

Tournaments with games today:
-AAC
-ACC
-America East
-Atlantic 10
-Big 12
-Big East
-Big Sky
-Big Ten
-Big West
-Conference USA
-MAC
-MEAC
-Mountain West
-Pac-12
-SEC
-Southland
-Sun Belt
-SWAC
-WAC

Bids up for grabs today (all times Eastern, in chronological order):
-America East:  (3) Stony Brook at (1) Albany (11:00 a.m.; ESPN2)
-MEAC:  (5) Delaware State vs. (6) Hampton (1:00 p.m.; ESPN2)
-Conference USA:  (4) UAB vs. (6) Middle Tennessee (3:30 p.m.; Fox Sports 1)
-Ivy League:  Harvard vs. Yale (in Philadelphia) (4:00 p.m.; ASN, ESPN3)
-Big 12:  (1) Kansas vs. (2) Iowa State (6 p.m.; ESPN)
-Mountain West:  (2) San Diego State vs. (4) Wyoming (6 p.m.; CBS)
-SWAC:  (1) Texas Southern vs. (3) Southern (6:30 p.m.; ESPNU)
-MAC:  (1) Central Michigan vs. (2) Buffalo (7:30 p.m.; ESPN2)
-ACC:  (3) Notre Dame vs. (5) North Carolina (8:30 p.m.; ESPN)
-Big East:  (1) Villanova vs. (6) Xavier (8:30 p.m.; Fox Sports 1)
-Big Sky:  (1) Montana vs. (2) Eastern Washington (9 p.m.; ESPNU)
-Southland:  (1) Stephen F. Austin vs. (2) Sam Houston State (9:30 p.m.; ESPN2)
-Pac-12:  (1) Arizona vs. (2) Oregon (11 p.m.; ESPN)
-WAC:  (1) New Mexico State vs. (3) Seattle (11 p.m.; ESPNU)
-Big West:  (2) UC Irvine vs. (5) Hawaii (11:30 p.m.; ESPN2)

Already clinched automatic berths (in parentheses is the NCAA tournament appearances, including the bid just clinched):
-Atlantic Sun:  North Florida (1)
-Big South:  Coastal Carolina (4)
-Colonial:  Northeastern (8)
-Horizon League:  Valparaiso (9)
-MAAC:  Manhattan (8)
-Missouri Valley:  Northern Iowa (7)
-Northeast Conference:  Robert Morris (8)
-Ohio Valley:  Belmont (7)
-Patriot League:  Lafayette (4)
-Southern Conference:  Wofford (4)
-Summit League:  North Dakota State (3)
-SWAC:  Texas Southern (6)
-West Coast Conference:  Gonzaga (18)

Remaining Tournaments (all times are Eastern):

AAC (March 12-15; Hartford)
3/14 – Semifinals
3 p.m. (ESPN2) (1) SMU vs. (4) Temple.  Predicted winner:  SMU
5 p.m. (ESPN2) (2) Tulsa vs. (6) UConn.  Predicted winner:  Tulsa
3/15 – Finals
3:15 p.m. (ESPN) (1) SMU vs. (2) Tulsa.  Predicted winner:  SMU

ACC (March 10-14; Greensboro)
3/14 – Finals
8:30 p.m. (ESPN) (3) Notre Dame vs. (5) North Carolina.  Predicted winner:  Notre Dame

America East (March 4, 8, 14; campus of higher seeds)
3/14 – Finals
11:00 a.m. (ESPN2) (3) Stony Brook at (1) Albany.  Predicted winner:  Albany

Atlantic 10 (March 11-15; Brooklyn)
3/14 – Semifinals
1:30 p.m. (CBSSN) (1) Davidson vs. (5) VCU.  Predicted winner:  VCU
4 p.m. (CBSSN) (2) Dayton vs. (3) Rhode Island.  Predicted winner:  Dayton
3/15 – Finals
1 p.m. (CBS) (2) Dayton vs. (5) VCU.  Predicted winner:  VCU

Big 12 (March 11-14; Kansas City)
3/14 – Finals
6 p.m. (ESPN) (1) Kansas vs. (2) Iowa State.  Predicted winner:  Kansas

Big East (March 11-14; New York)
3/14 – Finals
8:30 p.m. (Fox Sports 1) (1) Villanova vs. (6) Xavier.  Predicted winner:  Villanova

Big Sky (March 12-14; hosted by regular season champion (Montana))
3/14 – Finals
9 p.m. (ESPNU) (1) Montana vs. (2) Eastern Washington.  Predicted winner:  Eastern Washington

Big Ten (March 11-15; Chicago)
3/14 – Semifinals
1 p.m. (CBS) (1) Wisconsin vs. (4) Purdue.  Predicted winner:  Wisconsin
3:30 p.m. (CBS) (3) Michigan State vs. (2) Maryland.  Predicted winner:  Maryland
3/15 – Finals
3:30 p.m. (CBS) (1) Wisconsin vs. (2) Maryland.  Predicted winner:  Wisconsin

Big West (March 12-14; Anaheim)
3/14 – Finals
11:30 p.m. (ESPN2) (5) Hawaii vs. (2) UC Irvine.  Predicted winner:  UC Irvine

Conference USA (March 11-14; Birmingham, AL)
3/14 – Finals
3:30 p.m. (Fox Sports 1) (4) UAB vs. (6) Middle Tennessee.  Predicted winner:  Middle Tennessee

MAC (March 9, 11-14; first round at campus sites of higher seed; remaining rounds in Cleveland)
3/14 – Finals
7:30 p.m. (ESPN2) (1) Central Michigan vs. (2) Buffalo.  Predicted winner:  Central Michigan

MEAC (March 9-14; Norfolk, VA)
3/14 – Final
1:00 p.m. (ESPN2) (5) Delaware State vs. (6) Hampton.  Predicted winner:  Delaware State

Mountain West (March 11-14; Las Vegas)
3/14 – Finals
6 p.m. (CBS) (2) San Diego State v. (4) Wyoming.  Predicted winner:  San Diego State

Pac-12 (March 11-14; Las Vegas)
3/14 – Finals
11 p.m. (ESPN) (1) Arizona vs. (2) Oregon.  Predicted winner:  Arizona

SEC (March 11-15; Nashville)
3/14 – Semifinals
1 p.m. (ESPN) (1) Kentucky vs. (13) Auburn.  Predicted winner:  Kentucky
3 p.m. (ESPN) (2) Arkansas vs. (3) Georgia.  Predicted winner:  Arkansas
3/15 – Finals
1 p.m. (ESPN) (1) Kentucky vs. (2) Arkansas.  Predicted winner:  Kentucky

Southland (March 11-14; Katy, TX)
3/14 – Finals
9:30 p.m. (ESPN2) (1) Stephen F. Austin vs. (2) Sam Houston State.  Predicted winner:  Sam Houston State

Sun Belt (March 12-15; New Orleans)
3/14 – Semifinals
2 p.m. (ESPN3) (1) Georgia State vs. (4) Louisiana Lafayette.  Predicted winner:  Georgia State
4:30 p.m. (ESPN3) (2) Georgia Southern vs. (3) Louisiana Monroe.  Predicted winner:  Georgia Southern
3/15 – Finals
1 p.m. (ESPN2) (1) Georgia State vs. (2) Georgia Southern.  Predicted winner:  Georgia Southern

SWAC (March 10-14; Houston)
3/14 – Finals
6:30 p.m. (ESPNU) (1) Texas Southern vs. (3) Southern.  Predicted winner:  Texas Southern
**Southern is ineligible for post-season play this year, so it will go to the NCAA Tournament if it wins the SWAC Tournament.  Thus, even if Southern wins today, Texas Southern will receive the conference's NCAA tournament bid.

WAC (March 12-14; Las Vegas)
3/14 – Finals
11 p.m. (ESPNU) (1) New Mexico State vs. (3) Seattle.  Predicted winner:  New Mexico State

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