Updated Big Ten Tournament Seeding Predictions and NCAA Tournament Resumes

Last night, Wisconsin clinched the regular season Big Ten title and the 1-seed in the Big Ten Tournament by beating Minnesota.  This also means Maryland has clinched the 2-seed. 

Yesterday, I provided you with a painfully detailed explanation of seeding scenarios for the Top 8 spots in the Big Ten Tournament.  Today, as each team heads into its final Big Ten regular season game this weekend, I'm going to look at the NCAA Tournament resumes for the three Big Ten teams that are not "locks" for the NCAA Tournament according to ESPN.com's Bubble Watch:  Indiana, Illinois, and Purdue.  (Wisconsin, Maryland, Michigan State, Ohio State, and Iowa are all "locks," according to ESPN.com.)

For this comparison, an * means a neutral court victory.  I am considering Illinois one of the "bottom 7" Big Ten teams, even though they are tied with IU for 7th place, based on IU's tiebreaker over the Illini.

Indiana

RPI:  51

Joe Lunardi's current Bracketology projection:  12-seed (Last Four In)

Overall record:  19-11

Big Ten record:  9-8

Record in last 10 games:  4-6

Strength of schedule:  31

Non-conference strength of schedule:  113

Good wins:  4 (Maryland (9), SMU (19), Butler* (26), Ohio State (32))

Bad losses:  1 (at Northwestern (110))

Record vs. RPI Top 25:  2-4

Record vs. RPI Top 50:  4-7

Record vs. RPI 51-100:  4-3

Record vs. RPI 100-150:  3-1

Record vs. RPI 150+:  8-0

Record vs. teams with better RPI:  4-7

Record vs. teams with worse RPI:  15-4

Record vs. top 7 Big Ten teams:  2-7

Record vs. bottom 7 Big Ten teams:  7-1

Comments:  After the Hoosiers appeared to be a lock for the NCAA Tournament as recently as February 15, things started to unravel, and they lost home games to Purdue and Iowa and a road game to Northwestern, leaving the Hoosiers with only 2 wins thus far against the top half of the conference.  I think they can still make it, and a win Saturday against Michigan State would probably tip them back to the "in" column, but a loss against MSU would likely mean that the Hoosiers would have to win at least a game or two in the Big Ten Tournament to play themselves back into the NCAA Tournament.

Illinois

RPI:  58

Joe Lunardi's current Bracketology projection:  Out (Next Four Out)

Overall record:  19-11

Big Ten record:  9-8

Record in last 10 games:  6-4

Strength of schedule:  62

Non-conference strength of schedule:  160

Good wins:  3 (Maryland (9), Baylor* (10), at Michigan State (29))

Bad losses:  1 (at Nebraska (128))

Record vs. RPI Top 25:  2-2

Record vs. RPI Top 50:  3-6

Record vs. RPI 51-100:  2-4

Record vs. RPI 100-150:  6-1

Record vs. RPI 150+:  8-0

Record vs. teams with better RPI:  3-7

Record vs. teams with worse RPI:  16-4

Record vs. top 7 Big Ten teams:  3-5

Record vs. bottom 7 Big Ten teams:  6-3

Comments:  Illinois is kind of an enigma.  They have some good wins, but went through a relatively rough stretch when Rayvonte Rice was out with an injury and then suspended.  If they beat Purdue Saturday, I think that puts them "in," but if they lose, then they probably have to win at least two games in the Big Ten Tournament (which would mean they would have to beat Wisconsin in the quarterfinals).

Purdue

RPI:  63

Joe Lunardi's current Bracketology projection:  11-seed (Last Four In)

Overall record:  19-11

Big Ten record:  11-6

Record in last 10 games:  7-3

Strength of schedule:  66

Non-conference strength of schedule:  212

Good wins:  4 (Ohio State (32), Iowa (36), BYU* (44), NC State (45))

Bad losses:  3 (at Vanderbilt (101), Gardner-Webb (158), North Florida (177))

Record vs. RPI Top 25:  0-3

Record vs. RPI Top 50:  4-5

Record vs. RPI 51-100:  4-3

Record vs. RPI 100-150:  3-1

Record vs. RPI 150+:  8-2

Record vs. teams with better RPI:  6-6

Record vs. teams with worse RPI:  13-5

Record vs. top 7 Big Ten teams:  4-4

Record vs. bottom 7 Big Ten teams:  7-2

Comments:  Purdue is a shining example of why you should schedule at least mediocre teams in the non-conference portion of your schedule.  Their non-conference RPI of 95 is so horrendous -- combined with the fact that they lost at home to Gardner-Webb and North Florida and on the road to Vanderbilt (at team that even Rutgers beat) -- that Purdue is still a bubble team with a relatively bad RPI, even though they are currently tied for 3rd in the Big Ten.  They have also benefitted greatly from the Big Ten's unbalanced schedule, playing 10 of their 18 Big Ten games against the bottom half of the conference (while IU only played 8 games against the bottom half and Illinois played 9).  Their best win is a home win over Ohio State, which is a good win, but Indiana and Illinois both have at least three wins as good as or better than that, and Purdue's three "bad losses" are more than IU and Illinois have combined.  I think Purdue is probably in, but if they lose Saturday at home to Illinois or if they go one-and-done in the Big Ten Tournament, they should be sweating bullets.  Oh, I should also mention, fuck Purdue.

On the slate this weekend:

Saturday

-Michigan State at Indiana (12:00 p.m. EST, ESPN)

-Northwestern at Iowa (12:00 p.m. EST, BTN)

-Rutgers at Michigan (2:15 p.m. EST, BTN)

-Illinois at Purdue (4:30 p.m. EST, BTN)

Sunday

-Penn State at Minnesota (1:00 p.m. EST, BTN)

-Wisconsin at Ohio State (4:30 p.m. EST, CBS)

-Maryland at Nebraska (7:30 p.m. EST, BTN)

Current Standings

Here are the current standings, with the conference record, each team's remaining games, and my predictions.  I will try to update these after every day or every couple days of games.

1.  Wisconsin (15-2):  at OSU (L)

2.  Maryland (13-4):  at Nebraska (W)

3 (tie).  Iowa (11-6):  Northwestern (W)

3 (tie).  Michigan State (11-6):  at IU (W)

3 (tie).  Ohio State (11-6):  Wisconsin (W)

3 (tie).  Purdue (11-6):  Illinois (W)

7 (tie).  Indiana (9-8):  MSU (L)

7 (tie).  Illinois (9-8):  at Purdue (L)

9.  Michigan (7-10):  Rutgers (W)

10.  Minnesota (6-11):  PSU (W)

11.  Northwestern (6-11):  at Iowa (L)

12.  Nebraska (5-12):  Maryland (L)

13.  Penn State (3-14):  at Minnesota (L)

14.  Rutgers (2-15):  at Michigan (L)

Projected Big Ten Tournament Seeding

Given my predictions and Big Ten tiebreaking rules, here is how the Big Ten Tournament seeds should fall into place:

1.  Wisconsin (15-3)

2.  Maryland (14-4)

3.  Michigan State (12-6) (has tiebreaker over OSU, Iowa, and Purdue based on 3-0 record vs. other three teams, while Iowa and Purdue have 2-2 records against the other three teams, and OSU has 1-4 record against other three teams)

4.  Iowa (12-6) (has tiebreaker over Purdue based on better record vs. Maryland)

5.  Purdue (12-6)

6.  Ohio State (12-6) (loses tiebreaker with MSU, Iowa, and Purdue based on worse record vs. other three than the other three have against each other)

7.  Indiana (9-9) (has tiebreaker over Illinois based on 1-0 record vs. Illinois)

8.  Illinois (9-9)

9.  Michigan (8-10)

10.  Minnesota (7-11)

11.  Northwestern (6-12)

12.  Nebraska (5-13)

13.  Penn State (3-15)

14.  Rutgers (2-16)

Big Ten Tournament Schedule and Predictions

Here are the dates/times/TV schedule for the Big Ten Tournament (and a link to the bracket), which will be in Chicago, and my predictions given my current seeding projections.  Bear in mind that I am extremely biased.  All times are Central.

Wednesday March 11 – First Round

(12) Nebraska vs. (13) Penn State (3:30 p.m. ESPN2).  Predicted winner:  Nebraska

(11) Northwestern vs. (14) Rutgers (6 p.m. BTN).  Predicted winner:  Northwestern

Thursday March 12 – Second Round

(8) Illinois vs. (9) Michigan (11 a.m., BTN).  Predicted winner:  Illinois

(5) Purdue vs. (12) Nebraska (1:30 p.m., BTN).  Predicted winner:  Purdue

(7) Indiana vs. (10) Minnesota (5:30 p.m., ESPN2).  Predicted winner:  Indiana

(6) Ohio State vs. (11) Northwestern (8 p.m., ESPN2).  Predicted winner:  Ohio State

Friday March 13 – Quarterfinals

(1) Wisconsin vs. (8) Illinois (11 a.m., ESPN),  Predicted winner:  Wisconsin

(4) Iowa vs. (5) Purdue (1:30 p.m., ESPN).  Predicted winner:  Iowa

(2) Maryland vs. (7) Indiana (5:30 p.m., BTN).  Predicted winner:  Indiana

(3) Michigan State vs. (6) Ohio State (8 p.m., BTN).  Predicted winner:  Ohio State

Saturday March 14 – Semifinals

(1) Wisconsin vs. (4) Iowa (12 p.m., CBS).  Predicted winner:  Wisconsin

(7) Indiana vs. (6) Ohio State (2:30 p.m., CBS).  Predicted winner:  Indiana

Sunday March 15 – Finals

(1) Wisconsin vs. (7) Indiana (2:30 p.m., CBS).  Predicted winner:  Indiana

NCAA Tournament Resumes for All 14 Big Ten Teams

Here is each Big Ten team's updated NCAA Tournament resume.  From top to bottom, I will list each team's RPI (based on ESPN's daily RPI), "good" wins (wins against RPI Top 50 teams or, if none, the team's best win), "bad" losses (losses against teams with an RPI of 101+ or, if none, the team's worst loss).  An * means the game was played on a neutral court, and for the "good" wins and "bad" losses, the team's current RPI is identified.  Also, I have categorized the teams by "In," "Bubble," or "Out," which is my best guess, based on what I know right now, as to whether each team is a lock for the NCAA Tournament, is on the bubble, or is out.

In

1.  Wisconsin

RPI:  6

Overall record:  27-3

Good wins:  7 (Oklahoma* (18), Georgetown* (22), Michigan State (29), Iowa (36), at Iowa (36), Buffalo (37), Boise State (40))

Bad losses: 1 (at Rutgers (156))

2.  Maryland

RPI:  9

Overall record:  25-5

Good wins:  5 (Wisconsin (6), Iowa State* (14), Michigan State (29), at Michigan State (29), at Oklahoma State (42))

Bad losses:  None (at Illinois (58))

3.  Michigan State

RPI:  29

Overall record:  20-10

Good wins:  2 (Ohio State (32), at Iowa (36))

Bad losses:  2 (at Nebraska (128), Texas Southern (141))

4.  Ohio State

RPI:  32

Overall record:  22-8

Good wins:  1 (Maryland (9))

Bad losses:  None (at Michigan (85))

5.  Iowa

RPI:  36

Overall record:  20-10

Good wins:  4 (Maryland (9), at North Carolina (12), at Ohio State (32), Ohio State (32))

Bad losses:  1 (at Northwestern (110))

Bubble

6.  Indiana

RPI:  51

Overall record:  19-11

Good wins:  4 (Maryland (9), SMU (19), Butler* (26), Ohio State (32))

Bad losses:  1 (at Northwestern (110))

7.  Illinois

RPI:  58

Overall record:  19-11

Good wins:  3 (Maryland (9), Baylor* (10), at Michigan State (29))

Bad losses:  1 (at Nebraska (128))

8.  Purdue

RPI:  63

Overall record:  19-11

Good wins:  4 (Ohio State (32), Iowa (36), BYU* (44), NC State (45))

Bad losses:  3 (at Vanderbilt (101), Gardner-Webb (158), North Florida (177))

Out

9.  Minnesota

RPI:  83

Overall record:  16-13

Good wins:  3 (at Michigan State (29), Georgia* (34), at Iowa (36))

Bad losses:  3 (Northwestern (110), at Penn State (124), at Nebraska (128))

10.  Michigan

RPI:  85

Overall record:  13-15

Good wins:  2 (Oregon* (31), Ohio State (32))

Bad losses:  3 (at Northwestern (110), NJIT (161), Eastern Michigan (163))

11.  Northwestern

RPI:  110

Overall record:  15-15

Good wins:  1 (Iowa (36))

Bad losses:  2 (Georgia Tech (122), at Nebraska (128))

12.  Penn State

RPI:  124

Overall record:  15-15

Good wins:  None (George Washington (81))

Bad losses:  3 (at Northwestern (110), at Rutgers (156), Charlotte* (204))

13.  Nebraska

RPI:  128

Overall record:  13-16

Good wins:  2 (Michigan State (29), Cincinnati (38))

Bad losses:  4 (at Penn State (124), Creighton (127), Incarnate Word (142), at Hawaii (175))

14.  Rutgers

RPI:  156

Overall record:  10-20

Good wins:  1 (Wisconsin (6))

Bad losses:  5 (Northwestern (110), at Penn State (124), at Nebraska (128), St. Francis (PA) (181), St. Peter's (242))