Sunday, March 15, 2015

Updated Championship Week Predictions

It's Selection Sunday (!), and yesterday there were some bid thieves, which does not bode well for my beloved Hoosiers.  UConn better lose today.  Here is a rundown of everything that happened yesterday:
  • The day started out with a bang.  In the America East title game, Peter Hooley of 1-seed Albany, playing on its home court, hit a 3 with 1.6 seconds left to beat 3-seed Stony Brook, 51-50.  It was especially emotional for Hooley, who is Australian and had to go back to Australia in January to be with his mom, who was dying of cancer.  This is the 5th NCAA Tournament appearance for the Great Danes and 3rd in a row.  It was another heartbreaker for the Seawolves, who have never been to an NCAA Tournament and have now lost in the America East title game four times in the last six years.
  • In the ACC title game, 3-seed Notre Dame had a second-half run to take down 5-seed UNC, 90-82.  ND will be going to its 34th NCAA Tournament, and UNC will be going to its 46th.
  • In the Big 12 championship, 2-seed Iowa State overcame a 17-point second-half deficit to beat 1-seed Kansas.  Both teams are locks for the NCAA Tournament.  Kansas will be going to its 44th NCAA Tournament, and Iowa State will be going to its 17th.
  • In the Big East, top seed Villanova dominated 6-seed Xavier for the title.  Both of these teams are locks for the NCAA Tournament, with the Wildcats going to their 34th, and the Musketeers will be going to their 25th.
  • In the Big Sky final, 2-seed Eastern Washington beat top seed Montana in Missoula to clinch the Eagles' 2nd NCAA Tournament berth and first since 2004.
  • In the Big West title game, 2-seed UC Irvine took down 5-seed Hawaii.  The Anteaters will be playing in their first ever NCAA Tournament.
  • In Conference USA, 6-seed Middle Tennessee State's magical run finally came to an end at the hands of 4-seed UAB.  The Blazers are going to their 15th NCAA Tournament and first since 2011.
  • In the one-game playoff in the Ivy League, Harvard beat Yale 53-51 for its fourth straight Ivy League title and NCAA Tournament berth (and fifth overall).
  • In the miggity miggity miggity miggity miggity miggity MAC, 2-seed Buffalo -–coached by former Duke standout Bobby Hurley -- ended all bubble speculation by beating top seed Central Michigan for the Bulls' first ever NCAA Tournament berth.
  • In the MEAC, 6-seed Hampton's Cinderella run was capped off by a championship game victory over 5-seed Delaware State.  The Pirates are going to their 5th appearance and first since 2011.
  • In the Mountain West title game, 4-seed Wyoming stole an NCAA Tournament at-large bid from someone (hopefully not IU) by beating 2-seed San Diego State.  The Cowboys will be playing in their 15th NCAA Tournament berth and first since 2002.  The Aztecs are a tournament lock, and they will be going to their 11th NCAA Tournament and 6th in a row.
  • In the Pac-12 final, top seed Arizona routed 2-seed Oregon, 80-52.  Both teams are locks for the NCAA Tournament.  The Wildcats will be going to their 31st, and the Ducks will be going to their 14th.
  • In the Southland championship game, 1-seed Stephen F. Austin topped 2-seed Sam Houston State.  The Lumberjacks will be playing in their 3rd NCAA Tournament and second in a row.
  • In the SWAC, top seed Texas Southern -– coached by former IU head coach Mike Davis -- beat 3-seed Southern for their 6th NCAA Tournament berth and second in a row.
  • In the wiggity wiggity wiggity wiggity wiggity wiggity WAC title game, 1-seed New Mexico State beat up on 3-seed Seattle, 80-61, to clinch the Aggies' 19th NCAA Tournament berth and fourth in a row. 
  • In the AAC semis, 1-seed SMU beat 4-seed Temple, while 6-seed and defending NCAA champ UConn beat 2-seed Tulsa.  If the Huskies win, they would steal a bid from someone and would go to their 32nd NCAA Tournament.  SMU is a lock and will be going to their 11th NCAA Tournament and first since 1993.
  • In the A-10 semis, 5-seed VCU destroyed 1-seed Davidson, and 2-seed Dayton held off 3-seed Rhode Island.  Both teams are locks for the NCAA Tournament.  The Rams will be going to their 14th NCAA Tournament, and the Flyers will be going to their 16th.
  • In the Big Ten semis, top seed Wisconsin exposed 4-seed Purdue for the frauds they are, outscoring the Boilermakers 41-16 in the second half, en route to a 71-51 victory.  In the other semi, 3-seed Michigan State topped 2-seed Maryland.  Both Wisconsin and Michigan State are locks for the NCAA Tournament.  The Badgers will be going to their 21st, and the Spartans will be going to their 29th.
  • In the SEC semis, the only two decent teams in the SEC, 1-seed Kentucky and 2-seed Arkansas advanced.  I don't care enough about them to tell you anything else.
  • In the Sun Belt semis, both Georgia teams, 1-seed Georgia Southern and 2-seed Georgia State advanced to today's final.  The Eagles will be playing for their 4th NCAA Tournament berth and first since 1992, and the Panthers will be playing for their 3rd berth and first since 2001.
  • Here are the bubble teams that won yesterday:  Buffalo, VCU
  • Here are the bubble teams that lost yesterday:  Purdue, Temple, Tulsa
  • The final five bids are up for grabs today.
Here are the tournaments with games today, bids up for grab today, who has already clinched an automatic berth, and my predictions for the remaining conference tournaments. 

Tournaments with games today:
-AAC
-Atlantic 10
-Big Ten
-SEC
-Sun Belt

Bids up for grabs today (all times Eastern, in chronological order):
-Atlantic 10:  (2) Dayton vs. (5) VCU (1 p.m.; CBS)
-SEC:  (1) Kentucky vs. (2) Arkansas (1 p.m.; ESPN)
-Sun Belt:  (1) Georgia State vs. (2) Georgia Southern (1 p.m.; ESPN2)
-AAC:  (1) SMU vs. (6) UConn (3:15 p.m.; ESPN)
-Big Ten:  (1) Wisconsin vs. (3) Michigan State (3:30 p.m.; CBS)

Already clinched automatic berths (in parentheses is the NCAA tournament appearances, including the bid just clinched):
-ACC:  Notre Dame (34)
-America East:  Albany (5)
-Atlantic Sun:  North Florida (1)
-Big 12:  Iowa State (17)
-Big East:  Villanova (34)
-Big Sky:  Eastern Washington (2)
-Big South:  Coastal Carolina (4)
-Big West:  UC Irvine (1)
-Colonial:  Northeastern (8)
-Conference USA:  UAB (15)
-Horizon League:  Valparaiso (9)
-Ivy League:  Harvard (5)
-MAC:  Buffalo (1)
-MAAC:  Manhattan (8)
-MEAC:  Hampton (5)
-Missouri Valley:  Northern Iowa (7)
-Mountain West:  Wyoming (15)
-Northeast Conference:  Robert Morris (8)
-Ohio Valley:  Belmont (7)
-Pac-12:  Arizona (31)
-Patriot League:  Lafayette (4)
-Southern Conference:  Wofford (4)
-Southland:  Stephen F. Austin (3)
-Summit League:  North Dakota State (3)
-SWAC:  Texas Southern (6)
-WAC:  New Mexico State (19)
-West Coast Conference:  Gonzaga (18)

Remaining Tournaments (all times are Eastern):

AAC (March 12-15; Hartford)
3/15 – Finals
3:15 p.m. (ESPN) (1) SMU vs. (6) UConn.  Predicted winner:  SMU

Atlantic 10 (March 11-15; Brooklyn)
3/15 – Finals
1 p.m. (CBS) (2) Dayton vs. (5) VCU.  Predicted winner:  VCU

Big Ten (March 11-15; Chicago)
3/15 – Finals
3:30 p.m. (CBS) (1) Wisconsin vs. (3) Michigan State.  Predicted winner:  Wisconsin

SEC (March 11-15; Nashville)
3/15 – Finals
1 p.m. (ESPN) (1) Kentucky vs. (2) Arkansas.  Predicted winner:  Kentucky

Sun Belt (March 12-15; New Orleans)
3/15 – Finals

1 p.m. (ESPN2) (1) Georgia State vs. (2) Georgia Southern.  Predicted winner:  Georgia Southern

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