Sunday, March 16, 2014

Final Championship Week Predictions

Selection Sunday is here.  I literally just got goosebumps writing that.  While you're nursing your hangover, you can watch the final five conference championship games and then the Selection Sunday special on CBS (6 p.m. Eastern).  Here are some highlights from yesterday's Championship Week action, as well as some previews of today's championship games.  Again, take a deep breath, unless that will cause you to vomit, pop an Excedrin Migraine, and get ready for a nice little recap of everything that happened yesterday.  For sake of ease and logic, I'm just going to go in alphabetical order.
  • In the AAC final, 2-seed Louisville topped 4-seed UConn.  It will be the Cardinals' 40th NCAA Tournament appearance and its 8th in a row, and they have an outside shot at a 1-seed, depending on what shakes out tomorrow, although more than likely, they will end up with a 2-seed.
  • In the ACC semis, 1-seed Virginia beat 5-seed Pitt, earning its first spot in the ACC title game since 1994.  In the other semifinal, 3-seed Duke beat 7-seed NC State.  Both Virginia and Duke are NCAA Tournament locks, and whoever wins has a chance of getting a 1-seed.  The Cavaliers will be going to their 18th NCAA Tournament and first since 2012.  The Blue Devils will playing in their 38th NCAA Tournament and 19th in a row.
  • In the America East final, 4-seed Albany beat 2-seed Stony Brook.  The Great Danes will be playing in their 4th NCAA Tournament appearance and second in a row.
  • In the Atlantic 10 semis, 2-seed VCU beat 3-seed George Washington, and 4-seed St. Joseph's likely played itself into the NCAA Tournament with a win over 9-seed St. Bonaventure.  The Rams in their 13th NCAA Tournament and fourth in a row.  The Hawks will be playing in their 20th NCAA Tournament and first since 2008.
  • In the Big 12 final, 4-seed Iowa State beat 7-seed Baylor to give "The Mayor" Fred Hoiberg his first conference title as head coach.  The Cyclones will be in their 16th NCAA Tournament and third in a row.  Somewhere Jeff Hornacek is smiling -- probably in Toronto, since that's where the Suns are playing tomorrow.
  • In the Big East final, 4-seed Providence upset wunderkind Doug McDermott and 2-seed Creighton.  The Friars are now officially off the bubble, and will be playing in their 16th NCAA Tournament berth and first since 2004.
  • In the Big Sky final, 1-seed Weber State dominated 2-seed North Dakota.  The Wildcats will be playing in their 15th NCAA Tournament berth and first since 2007.
  • In the Big Ten semis, top seed Michigan outlasted 5-seed Ohio State, preventing the Buckeyes from going to their 7th straight Big Ten Tournament championship game.  In the other semi, 3-seed Michigan State beat 2-seed Wisconsin, ending all that "if Wisconsin wins the Big Ten Tournament, they deserve a 1-seed" talk.  Michigan, however, may have gotten itself a 1-seed with its win.  The Wolverines will be playing in their 25th NCAA Tournament and fourth in a row.  The Spartans will be playing in their 28th NCAA Tournament and 17th in a row.
  • In the Big West final, 7-seed Cal Poly continued its improbable run yet again, upsetting (I guess) 5-seed Cal State Northridge for the Mustangs' first NCAA Tournament berth.  Having been to the Cal Poly campus a few years ago and bought a t-shirt there, I feel a little bit responsible.
  • In the Conference USA final, 2-seed Tulsa beat 1-seed Louisiana Tech.  The Golden Hurricane -- coached by former Kansas star and national championship MOP Danny Manning -- will be playing for its 15th NCAA Tournament berth and first since 2003.
  • In the miggity miggity miggity miggity miggity miggity MAC final, top seed Western Michigan topped 2-seed Toledo.  The Broncos will be playing in their 4th NCAA Tournament appearance and first since 2004.
  • In the MEAC final, 1-seed North Carolina Central topped 3-seed Morgan State to earn the Eagles their first NCAA Tournament berth.
  • In the Mountain West final, 2-seed New Mexico used some timely 3s to knock off top seed San Diego State.  The Lobos will be playing in their 15th NCAA Tournament and third in a row.
  • In the Pac-12 final, 2-seed UCLA upset 1-seed Arizona, 75-71.  Regardless, Arizona is still probably getting a 1-seed in the NCAA Tournament.  Meanwhile, the Bruins will be playing in their 46th NCAA Tournament and second in a row.
  • In the SEC semis, top seed Florida beat 4-seed Florida, and 2-seed Kentucky handled 3-seed Georgia.  The Gators are the likely overall #1 seed, and they will be playing in their 19th NCAA Tournament and fifth in a row.  Kentucky, well, fuck Kentucky.
  • In the Southland final, 1-seed Stephen F. Austin won its 28th game in a row over 3-seed Sam Houston State for Lumberjacks' 2nd NCAA Tournament appearance and first since 2009.  Don't sleep on the Lumberjacks.
  • In the Sun Belt semis, top seed Georgia State destroyed 4-seed Arkansas State, while 3-seed Louisiana-Lafayette won a 73-72 barn burner over 2-seed Western Kentucky.  The Panthers will be playing for their 3rd NCAA Tournament appearance and first since 2001 (when they upset Wisconsin in the first round as an 11-seed), while the Ragin' Cajuns -- still the best mascot in the NCAA -- are playing for their 11th NCAA Tournament appearance (including four vacated appearances, two of which were as a result of the death penalty in the mid '70s -- who knew?) and first since 2005.
  • In the SWAC final, 2-seed Texas Southern beat 8-seed Prairie View A&M to earn their 5th NCAA Tournament appearance and first since 2003.  Congrats to Tigers coach (and former IU head coach) Mike Davis, who is taking his third different school to the NCAA Tournament.
  • In the wiggity wiggity wiggity wiggity wiggity wiggity WAC final, 2-seed New Mexico State dominated 5-seed Idaho for the Aggies' 20th NCAA Tournament and third in a row.
  • With losses by Louisiana Tech, Arizona, and San Diego State, there have now been 18 1-seeds who have failed to win their conference tournaments (AAC, America East, Atlantic 10, Atlantic Sun, Big 12, Big East, Big West, Conference USA, Horizon, MAAC, Mountain West, NEC, OVC, Pac-12, Patriot, Southern, SWAC, WAC), while 8 1-seeds have won their conference tournaments (Big South, CAA, MAC, MEAC, MVC, Southland, Summit, West Coast), and 4 1-seeds are still playing (ACC, Big Ten, SEC, Sun Belt).
  • Bubble teams that won yesterday:  Providence, St. Joseph's
  • Bubble teams that lost yesterday:  Georgia, Louisiana Tech, NC State, Pittsburgh, Tennessee
The last five automatic bids will be clinched today.  Here are the bids up for grabs (and my predicted winners) and who has already clinched an automatic berth. 

Bids up for grabs today (in chronological order; all times Eastern):
-ACC:  (1) Virginia vs. (3) Duke (1 p.m.; ESPN).  Predicted winner:  Duke
-Atlantic 10:  (2) VCU vs. (4) St. Joseph's (1 p.m.; CBS).  Predicted winner:  VCU
-Sun Belt:  (1) Georgia Southern vs. (3) Louisiana-Lafayette (1 p.m.; ESPN2).  Predicted winner:  Georgia Southern
-SEC:  (1) Florida vs. (2) Kentucky (3:15 p.m.; ESPN).  Predicted winner:  Florida
-Big Ten:  (1) Michigan vs. (3) Michigan State (3:30 p.m.; CBS).  Predicted winner:  Michigan State

Already clinched automatic berths (in parentheses is the school's number of NCAA tournament appearances, including the bid just clinched):
-AAC:  Louisville (40)
-Atlantic Sun:  Mercer (3)
-American East:  Albany (4)
-Big 12:  Iowa State (16)
-Big East:  Providence (16)
-Big Sky:  Weber State (15)
-Big South:  Coastal Carolina (3)
-Big West:  Cal Poly (1)
-Colonial:  Delaware (5)
-Conference USA:  Tulsa (15)
-Horizon:  Milwaukee (4)
-Ivy League:  Harvard (4)
-MAC:  Western Michigan (4)
-MEAC:  North Carolina Central (1)
-MAAC:  Manhattan (7)
-Missouri Valley:  Wichita State (11)
-Mountain West:  New Mexico (15)
-Northeast:  Mount St. Mary's (4)
-Ohio Valley:  Eastern Kentucky (8)
-Pac-12:  UCLA (46)
-Patriot League:  American (3)
-Southern:  Wofford (3)
-Southland:  Stephen F. Austin (2)
-Summit League:  North Dakota State (2)
-SWAC:  Texas Southern (5)
-WAC:  New Mexico State (20)
-West Coast:  Gonzaga (17)

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