Updated Big Ten Tournament Seeding Predictions

Last night, we had two games in the Big Ten.  #22 Michigan State staved off #24 Iowa on Senior Night in East Lansing.  With that win, the Spartans guarantee they will have either the 2-seed or the 3-seed in the Big Ten Tournament, although the only want they can get the 2-seed is if they win at Ohio State on Sunday and Wisconsin loses at home to Nebraska on Sunday.

In other news, Penn State beat Northwestern 59-32 on Senior Night in Evanston.  Yes, Northwestern only score 32 points.  That's 0.8 points per minute.  That's not good.

Saturday and Sunday mark the last regular season games, with plenty still at stake as far as seeding.  Here are this weekend's games:

Saturday
-Indiana at #12 Michigan (5 p.m. Central; ESPN).  Now that Michigan has clinched the 1-seed, hopefully they will take the foot off the gas pedal.  A win for the Hoosiers would mean they could do no worse than the 8-seed, and if IU wins and Minnesota loses Sunday, IU would get the 7-seed.  As it stands, with a loss, the worse the Hoosiers could do is the 9-seed.
-Illinois at #24 Iowa (7:30 p.m. Central; BTN).  A win for the Hawkeyes means they will have either the 4- or 5-seed. (If Nebraska loses to Wisconsin on Sunday, the Hawkeyes would clinch the 4-seed.)  A loss would mean either the 5- or 6-seed for the Hawkeyes (depending on how Ohio State does Sunday).  For the Illini, a win could move them as high as the 7-seed, which would happen if IU loses to Michigan and Penn State beats Minnesota.  If the Illini lose, here's how things would shake out:

• If there's a three-way tie at 6-12 between Illinois, Purdue, and Penn State, 9-10-11 would go Illinois, Purdue, Penn State.
• If there's a three-way tie at 6-12 between Illinois, Northwestern, and Penn State, 9-10-11 would go Illinois, Northwestern, Penn State
• If Penn State wins and Illinois loses, Illinois would get the 11-seed, since Illinois is 0-1 against both Northwestern and Purdue.

Sunday
-Northwestern at Purdue (11 a.m. Central; BTN).  The consequences for both teams are pretty simple:  whoever loses finishes alone in last place.  Go Wildcats!
-#22 Michigan State at Ohio State (3:30 p.m. Central; CBS).  As I mentioned above, an MSU win plus a Wisconsin loss means the Spartans get the 2-seed.  If anything other than that happens, the Spartans get the 3-seed.  For Ohio State, the best they can do is the 5-seed, which can only happen if they win and Iowa loses to Illinois on Saturday.  Otherwise, the Buckeyes will be the 6-seed.
-Penn State at Minnesota (4:15 p.m. Central; BTN). If Minnesota wins, they clinch the 7-seed.  If Penn State wins, here's how things would shake out:

• If there's a four-way tie at 7-11 between IU, Minnesota, Illinois, and Penn State, 7-8-9-10 would go Illinois, Minnesota, Indiana, Penn State.
• If there's a three-way tie at 7-11 between IU, Minnesota, and Penn State, 7-8-9 would go Minnesota, Penn State, Indiana.
• If there's a three-way tie at 7-11 between Illinois, Minnesota, and Penn State, 8-9-10 would go Illinois, Minnesota, Penn State
• If there's a two-way tie at 7-11 between Minnesota and Penn State, Minnesota would get the 8-seed and Penn State would get the 9-seed.

-#9 Wisconsin at Nebraska (6:30 p.m. Central; BTN).  If Wisconsin wins (or Michigan State loses), the Badgers clinch the 2-seed.  If Nebraska wins, the Cornhuskers clinch the 4-seed.  If Nebraska loses, they would get the 6-seed if they are tied with both Iowa and Ohio State, they would get the 5-seed if tied only with Iowa, and they would get the 4-seed if tied only with Ohio State.

Here are the current standings, with the conference record, each team's remaining games, and my predictions.

1.  Michigan (14-3):  IU (W)

4.  Wisconsin (12-5):  at Nebraska (W)
3.  Michigan State (12-5):  at OSU (L)

4.  Nebraska (10-7):  Wisconsin (L)

5.  Iowa (9-8):  Illinois (W)

6.  Ohio State (9-8):  MSU (W)

7.  Minnesota (7-10):  PSU (W)

8.  Indiana (7-10):  at Michigan (L)
9.  Illinois (6-11):  at Iowa (L)

10.  Penn State (6-11):  at Minnesota (L)
11.  Northwestern (5-12):  at Purdue (L)

12.  Purdue (5-12):  Northwestern (W)

Given my predictions and Big Ten tiebreaking rules, here is how the Big Ten Tournament seeds should fall into place and how the Big Ten Tournament will play out (all times are Central):

*1.  Michigan (15-3)

2.  Wisconsin (13-5)

3.  Michigan State (12-6)

4.  Iowa (10-8) (wins three-way tie based on 2-1 record vs. OSU and Nebraska, while OSU has 2-2 record vs. Iowa and Nebraska, and Nebraska has 1-2 record vs. OSU and Iowa)

5.  Ohio State (10-8)

6.  Nebraska (10-8)

7.  Minnesota (8-10)

8.  Indiana (7-11)

9.  Illinois (6-12) (wins three-way tiebreaker based on 2-1 record vs. other two teams and better record vs. Michigan State than Purdue)
10.  Purdue (6-12)

11.  Penn State (6-12)

12.  Northwestern (5-13)
* seed has been clinched

Here are my game-by-game predictions for the Big Ten Tournament, with the dates/times/TV schedule for the Big Ten Tournament (and a link to the bracket), which will be in Indianapolis.  All times are Central.

Thursday March 13 – First Round

(8) Indiana vs. (9) Illinois (11 a.m., BTN).  Predicted winner:  Indiana

(5) Ohio State vs. (12) Northwestern (1:30 p.m., BTN).  Predicted winner:  Ohio State

(7) Minnesota vs. (10) Purdue (5:30 p.m., ESPN2).  Predicted winner:  Minnesota

(6) Nebraska vs. (11) Penn State (8 p.m., ESPN2).  Predicted winner:  Nebraska

Friday March 14 - Quarterfinals

(1) Michigan vs. (8) Indiana (11 a.m., ESPN/EPSN2).  Predicted winner:  Indiana

(4) Iowa vs. (5) Ohio State (1:30 p.m., ESPN/ESPN2).  Predicted winner:  Ohio State

(2) Wisconsin vs. (7) Minnesota (5:30 p.m., BTN).  Predicted winner:  Minnesota

(3) Michigan State vs. (6) Nebraska (8 p.m., BTN).  Predicted winner:  Michigan State

Saturday March 15 - Semifinals

(8) Indiana vs. (5) Ohio State (12:40 p.m., CBS).  Predicted winner:  Indiana

(7) Minnesota vs. (3) Michigan State (3 p.m., CBS).  Predicted winner:  Michigan State

Sunday March 16 - Finals

(8) Indiana vs. (3) Michigan State (2:30 p.m., CBS).  Predicted winner:  Indiana