Thursday, March 13, 2014

Updated Championship Week Predictions

One bid was clinched last night.  Here are some highlights from yesterday's Championship Week action:
  • In the Patriot League finals, 2-seed American upset 1-seed Boston University, and it was a drubbing.  The Eagles held the Terriers to 36 points, to clinch their 3rd ever trip to the NCAA Tournament and first since 2009.  
  • In the SWAC quaterfinals, top seed Southern was upset by 8-seed Prairie View A&M.  It was delaying the inevitable for Southern, though, since they were ineligible for post-season play.
  • In the Big East, 10-seed DePaul -- who was 11-20 overall and 3-15 in conference play coming into the game -- upset 7-seed Georgetown, all but bursting the Hoyas' NCAA Tournament bubble.
  • Speaking of the NIT, with Boston's and Southern's respective losses, 10 1-seeds have lost in their conference tournaments thus far.  There is a silver lining because regular season conference champions are guaranteed a spot in the NIT if they don't make it to the NCAA Tournament (although, as I mentioned, Southern is ineligible this year).
  • In the MEAC, 7-seed Coppin State upset 2-seed Hampton to advance to the semis.
Today, remaining five conference tournaments start.  While there are no championship games today or tomorrow, 17 total tournaments have games both today and tomorrow.

Here are the tournaments starting today, the tournaments with games today, bids up for grab today, who has already clinched an automatic berth, and my predictions for the remaining conference tournaments. 

Tournaments starting today:
-Big Sky
-Big Ten
-Big West
-Sun Belt
-WAC

Tournaments with games today:
-AAC
-ACC
-Atlantic 10
-Big 12
-Big East
-Big Sky
-Big Ten
-Big West
-Conference USA
-MAC
-MEAC
-Mountain West
-Pac-12
-SEC
-Southland
-Sun Belt
-SWAC
-WAC

Bids up for grabs today (in chronological order; all times Eastern):
-None

Already clinched automatic berths (in parentheses is the school's number of NCAA tournament appearances, including the bid just clinched):
-Atlantic Sun:  Mercer (3)
-Big South:  Coastal Carolina (3)
-Colonial:  Delaware (5)
-Horizon:  Milwaukee (4)
-Ivy League:  Harvard (4)
-MAAC:  Manhattan (7)
-Missouri Valley:  Wichita State (11)
-Northeast:  Mount St. Mary's (4)
-Ohio Valley:  Eastern Kentucky (8)
-Patriot League:  American (3)
-Southern:  Wofford (3)
-Summit League:  North Dakota State (2)
-West Coast:  Gonzaga (17)

Remaining Tournaments (all times are Eastern):

AAC (March 12-15; Memphis)
3/13 - Quarterfinals
1 p.m. (ESPNU) (3) SMU vs. (6) Houston.  Winner:  SMU
3 p.m. (ESPNU) (2) Louisville vs. (7) Rutgers.  Winner:  Louisville
7 p.m. (ESPNU) (1) Cincinnati vs. (9) UCF.  Winner:  Cincinnati
9 p.m. (ESPNU) (4) UConn vs. (5) Memphis.  Winner:  Memphis
3/14 - Semifinals
7 p.m. (ESPN/ESPN2) (1) Cincinnati vs. (5) Memphis.  Winner:  Cincinnati
9 p.m. (ESPN/ESPN2) (2) Louisville vs. (3) SMU.  Winner:  Louisville
3/15 - Finals
6 p.m. (ESPN) (1) Cincinnati vs. (2) Louisville.  Winner:  Louisville

ACC (March 12-16; Greensboro)
3/13 – Second Round
12 p.m. (ESPNU) (8) Maryland vs. (9) Florida State.  Winner:  Florida State
2 p.m. (ESPNU) (5) Pittsburgh vs. (12) Wake Forest.  Winner:  Pittsburgh
7 p.m. (ESPNU) (7) NC State vs. (10) Miami.  Winner:  NC State
9 p.m. (ESPNU) (6) Clemson vs. (11) Georgia Tech.  Winner:  Clemson
3/14 - Quarterfinals
12 p.m. (ESPN2) (1) Virginia vs. (9) Florida State.  Winner:  Virginia
2 p.m. (ESPN2) (4) North Carolina vs. (5) Pittsburgh.  Winner:  North Carolina
7 p.m. (ESPN2) (2) Syracuse vs. (7) NC State.  Winner:  Syracuse
9 p.m. (ESPN2) (3) Duke vs. (6) Clemson.  Winner:  Duke
3/15 - Semifinals
1 p.m. (ESPN) (1) Virginia vs. (4) North Carolina.  Winner:  Virginia
3 p.m. (ESPN) (2) Syracuse vs. (3) Duke.  Winner:  Duke
3/16 - Finals
1 p.m. (ESPN) (1) Virginia vs. (3) Duke.  Winner:  Virginia

America East (March 8-9, 15; Albany, then the highest remaining seed hosts final)
3/15 - Finals
11:30 a.m. (ESPN2) (4) Albany at (2) Stony Brook.  Winner:  Stony Brook

Atlantic 10 (March 12-16; Brooklyn)
3/13 – Second Round
12 p.m. (CSN Philadelphia, CSN Mid-Atlantic, SNY, CSN New England, CSN Northwest, TCN Pittsburgh) (8) LaSalle vs. (9) St. Bonaventure.  Winner:  LaSalle
2:30 p.m. (NBC Sports) (5) Dayton vs. (13) Fordham.  Winner:  Dayton
6:30 p.m. (NBC Sports) (7) Richmond vs. (10) Duquense. Winner:  Richmond
9 p.m. (CSN Philadelphia, CSN Mid-Atlantic, SNY, CSN New England, CSN Northwest, TCN Pittsburgh) (6) UMass vs. (11) Rhode Island.  Winner:  UMass
3/14 - Quarterfinals
12 p.m. (NBC Sports) (1) St. Louis vs. (8) LaSalle.  Winner:  St. Louis
2 p.m. (NBC Sports) (4) St. Joseph's vs. (5) Dayton.  Winner:  Dayton
6:30 p.m. (NBC Sports) (2) VCU vs. (7) Richmond.  Winner:  VCU
9 p.m. (NBC Sports) (3) George Washington vs. (6) UMass.  Winner:  UMass
3/15 - Semifinals
1:30 p.m. (CBS Sports) (1) St. Louis vs. (5) Dayton.  Winner:  St. Louis
4 p.m. (CBS Sports) (2) VCU vs. (6) UMass.  Winner:  VCU
3/16 - Finals
1 p.m. (CBS) (1) St. Louis vs. (2) VCU.  Winner:  St. Louis

Big 12 (March 12-15; Kansas City)
3/13 - Quarterfinals
12:30 p.m. (ESPNU) (4) Iowa State vs. (5) Kansas State.  Winner:  Iowa State
3 p.m. (ESPNU) (1) Kansas vs. (9) Oklahoma State.  Winner:  Oklahoma State
7 p.m. (Big 12 Network) (2) Oklahoma vs. (7) Baylor.  Winner:  Baylor
9:30 p.m. (Big 12 Network) (3) Texas vs. (6) West Virginia.  Winner:  West Virginia
3/14 - Semifinals
7 p.m. (Big 12 Network/ESPNU) (9) Oklahoma State vs. (4) Iowa State.  Winner:  Iowa State
9:30 p.m. (Big 12 Network/ESPNU) (6) West Virginia vs. (7) Baylor.  Winner:  Baylor
3/15 - Finals
9 p.m. (ESPN) (4) Iowa State vs. (7) Baylor.  Winner:  Iowa State

Big East (March 12-15; New York)
3/13 - Quarterfinals
1 p.m. (Fox Sports 1) (1) Villanova vs. (8) Seton Hall.  Winner:  Villanova
3:30 p.m. (Fox Sports 1) (4) Providence vs. (5) St. John's.  Winner:  St. John's
7 p.m. (Fox Sports 1) (3) Xavier vs. (6) Marquette.  Winner:  Xavier
9:30 p.m. (Fox Sports 1) (2) Creighton vs. (10) DePaul.  Winner:  Creighton
3/14 - Semifinals
7 p.m. (Fox Sports 1) (1) Villanova vs. (5) St. John's.  Winner:  Villanova
9:30 p.m. (Fox Sports 1) (2) Creighton vs. (3) Xavier.  Winner:  Creighton
3/15 - Finals
8:30 p.m. (Fox Sports 1) (1) Villanova vs. (2) Creighton.  Winner:  Villanova

Big Sky (March 13-15; Ogden, UT)
3/13 - Quarterfinals
4:05 p.m. (2) North Dakota vs. (7) Sacramento State.  Winner:  North Dakota
6:30 p.m. (3) Northern Arizona vs. (6) Northern Colorado.  Winner:  Northern Colorado
9 p.m. (4) Montana vs. (5) Portland State.  Winner:  Montana
3/14 - Semifinals
6:30 p.m. (2) North Dakota vs. (4) Montana.  Winner:  Montana
9:30 p.m. (1) Weber State vs. (6) Northern Colorado.  Winner:  Weber State
3/15 - Finals
8 p.m. (ESPNU) (1) Weber State vs. (4) Montana.  Winner:  Weber State

Big Ten (March 13-16; Indianapolis)
3/13 – First Round
12 p.m. (BTN) (8) Indiana vs. (9) Illinois.  Winner:  Indiana
2:30 p.m. (BTN) (5) Ohio State vs. (12) Purdue.  Winner:  Ohio State
6:30 p.m. (ESPN2) (7) Minnesota vs. (10) Penn State.  Winner:  Minnesota
9 p.m. (ESPN2) (6) Iowa vs. (11) Northwestern.  Winner:  Iowa
3/14 - Quarterfinals
12 p.m. (ESPN/ESPN2) (1) Michigan vs. (8) Indiana.  Winner:  Indiana
2:30 p.m. (ESPN/ESPN2) (4) Nebraska vs. (5) Ohio State.  Winner:  Ohio State
6:30 p.m. (BTN) (2) Wisconsin vs. (7) Minnesota.  Winner:  Minnesota
9 p.m. (BTN) (3) Michigan State vs. (6) Iowa.  Winner:  Michigan State
3/15 - Semifinals
1:40 p.m. (CBS) (8) Indiana vs. (5) Ohio State.  Winner:  Indiana
4 p.m. (CBS) (7) Minnesota vs. (3) Michigan State.  Winner:  Michigan State
3/16 - Finals
3:30 p.m. (CBS) (8) Indiana vs. (3) Michigan State.  Winner:  Indiana

Big West (March 13-15; Anaheim)
3/13 - Quarterfinals
3 p.m. (Fox Prime Ticket) (2) UC Santa Barbara vs. (7) Cal Poly.  Winner:  UC Santa Barbara
5:30 p.m. (Fox Prime Ticket) (3) Long Beach State vs. (6) Cal State Fullerton.  Winner:  Long Beach State
9 p.m. (Fox Prime Ticket) (4) Hawaii vs. (5) Cal State Northridge.  Winner:  Hawaii
11:30 p.m. (Fox Prime Ticket) (1) UC Irvine vs. (8) UC Riverside.  Winner:  UC Irvine
3/14 - Semifinals
9:30 p.m. (ESPN3) (1) UC Irvine vs. (4) Hawaii.  Winner:  UC Irvine
11:59 p.m. (ESPNU) (2) UC Santa Barbara vs. (3) Long Beach State.  Winner:  UC Santa Barbara
3/15 - Finals
10:30 p.m. (ESPN2) (1) UC Irvine vs. (2) UC Santa Barbara.  Winner:  UC Santa Barbara

Conference USA (March 11-15; El Paso)
3/13 - Quarterfinals
2 p.m. (C-USA DN) (2) Tulsa vs. (7) Tulane.  Winner:  Tulsa
4:30 p.m. (C-USA DN) (3) Middle Tennessee vs. (6) Old Dominion.  Winner:  Middle Tennessee
8 p.m. (C-USA DN) (4) Southern Miss vs. (5) UTEP.  Winner:  Southern Miss
10:30 p.m. (C-USA DN) (1) Louisiana Tech vs. (9) Charlotte.  Winner:  Louisiana Tech
3/14 - Semifinals
4 p.m. (CBS Sports) (2) Tulsa vs. (3) Middle Tennessee.  Winner:  Middle Tennessee
6:30 p.m. (CBS Sports) (1) Louisiana Tech vs. (4) Southern Miss.  Winner:  Louisiana Tech
3/15 - Finals
11:30 a.m. (CBS) (1) Louisiana Tech vs. (3) Middle Tennessee.  Winner:  Louisiana Tech

MAC (March 10, 12-15; first round at campus sites of higher seed; remaining rounds in Cleveland)
3/13 – Third Round
6:30 p.m. (Time Warner Cable Sports Channel Ohio) (4) Akron vs. (5) Ohio.  Winner:  Ohio
9 p.m. (Time Warner Cable Sports Channel Ohio) (3) Buffalo vs. (6) Eastern Michigan.  Winner:  Buffalo
3/14 - Semifinals
6:30 p.m. (Time Warner Cable Sports Channel Ohio) (1) Western Michigan vs. (5) Ohio.  Winner:  Western Michigan
9 p.m. (Time Warner Cable Sports Channel Ohio) (2) Toledo vs. (3) Buffalo.  Winner:  Toledo
3/15 - Finals
6:30 p.m. (ESPN2) (1) Western Michigan vs. (2) Toledo.  Winner:  Toledo

MEAC (March 10-15; Norfolk, VA)
3/13 - Quarterfinals
6:00 p.m. (3) Morgan State vs. (6) Florida A&M.  Winner:  Morgan State
8:00 p.m. (4) Norfolk State vs. (5) Savannah State.  Winner:  Norfolk State
3/14 – Semifinals
6:00 p.m. (1) North Carolina Central vs. (4) Norfolk State.  Winner:  North Carolina Central
8:00 p.m. (7) Coppin State vs. (3) Morgan State.  Winner:  Hampton
3/15 – Final
6:00 p.m. (ESPNU) (1) North Carolina Central vs. (2) Hampton.  Winner:  North Carolina Central

Mountain West (March 12-15; Las Vegas)
3/13 – Quarterfinals
3 p.m. (CBS Sports) (1) San Diego State vs. (8) Utah State.  Winner:  San Diego State
5:30 p.m. (CBS Sports) (4) UNLV vs. (5) Wyoming.  Winner:  UNLV
9 p.m. (CBS Sports) (2) New Mexico vs. (7) Fresno State.  Winner:  New Mexico
11:30 p.m. (CBS Sports) (3) Nevada vs. (6) Boise State.  Winner:  Boise State
3/14 – Semifinals
9 p.m. (CBS Sports) (1) San Diego State vs. (4) UNLV.  Winner:  San Diego State
11:30 p.m. (CBS Sports) (2) New Mexico vs. (6) Boise State.  Winner:  New Mexico
3/15 – Finals
6 p.m. (CBS) (1) San Diego State vs. (2) New Mexico.  Winner:  San Diego State

Pac-12 (March 12-15; Las Vegas)
3/13 – Quarterfinals
3 p.m. (Pac-12 Network) (1) Arizona vs. (8) Utah.  Winner:  Arizona
5:30 p.m. (Pac-12 Network) (4) California vs. (5) Colorado.  Winner:  Colorado
9 p.m. (Pac-12 Network) (2) UCLA vs. (7) Oregon.  Winner:  Oregon
11:30 p.m. (Fox Sports 1) (3) Arizona State vs. (6) Stanford.  Winner:  Stanford
3/14 – Semifinals
9 p.m. (Pac-12 Network) (1) Arizona vs. (5) Colorado.  Winner:  Arizona
11:30 p.m. (Fox Sports 1) (6) Stanford vs. (7) Oregon.  Winner:  Oregon
3/15 – Finals
6 p.m. (Fox Sports 1) (1) Arizona vs. (7) Oregon.  Winner:  Arizona

SEC (March 12-16; Atlanta)
3/13 – Second Round
1 p.m. (SEC TV) (8) Missouri vs. (9) Texas A&M.  Winner:  Missouri
3 p.m. (SEC TV) (5) Arkansas vs. (13) South Carolina.  Winner:  Arkansas
7 p.m. (SEC TV) (7) LSU vs. (10) Alabama.  Winner:  LSU
9 p.m. (SEC TV) (6) Mississippi vs. (14) Mississippi State.  Winner:  Mississippi
3/14 - Quarterfinals
1 p.m. (ESPNU) (1) Florida vs. (8) Missouri.  Winner:  Florida
3 p.m. (ESPNU) (4) Tennessee vs. (5) Arkansas.  Winner:  Tennessee
7 p.m. (SEC TV) (2) Kentucky vs. (7) LSU.  Winner:  Kentucky
9 p.m. (SEC TV) (3) Georgia vs. (6) Mississippi.  Winner:  Georgia
3/15 - Semifinals
1 p.m. (ABC) (1) Florida vs. (4) Tennessee.  Winner:  Florida
3 p.m. (ABC) (2) Kentucky vs. (3) Georgia.  Winner:  Kentucky
3/16 - Finals
3:15 p.m. (ESPN) (1) Florida vs. (2) Kentucky.  Winner:  Florida

Southland (March 12-15; Katy, TX)
3/13 – Second Round
6 p.m. (SLCDN) (4) Northwestern State vs. (5) Nicholls State.  Winner:  Northwestern State
8:30 p.m. (SLCDN) (3) Sam Houston State vs. (6) Oral Roberts.  Winner:  Sam Houston State
3/14 – Semifinals
6 p.m. (ESPN3) (1) Stephen F. Austin vs. (4) Northwestern State.  Winner:  Stephen F. Austin
8:30 p.m. (ESPN3) (2) Texas A&M Corpus Christi vs. (3) Sam Houston State.  Winner:  Sam Houston State
3/15 – Finals
8:30 p.m. (ESPN2) (1) Stephen F. Austin vs. (3) Sam Houston State.  Winner:  Stephen F. Austin

Sun Belt (March 13-16; New Orleans)
3/13 – First Round
7 p.m. (Sun Belt Network) (5) UALR vs. (8) Troy.  Winner:  UALR
9:30 p.m. (Sun Belt Network) (6) UT-Arlington vs. (7) Louisiana-Monroe.  Winner:  UT-Arlington
3/14 – Second Round
7 p.m. (Sun Belt Network) (4) Arkansas State vs. (5) UALR.  Winner:  Arkansas State
9:30 p.m. (Sun Belt Network) (3) Louisiana-Lafayette vs. (6) UT-Arlington.  Winner:  Louisiana-Lafayette
3/15 – Semifinals
3 p.m. (Sun Belt Network) (1) Georgia State vs. (4) Arkansas State.  Winner:  Georgia State
5:30 p.m. (Sun Belt Network) (2) Western Kentucky vs. (3) Louisiana-Lafayette.  Winner:  Western Kentucky
3/16 – Finals
1 p.m. (ESPN2) (1) Georgia State vs. (2) Western Kentucky.  Winner:  Georgia State

SWAC (March 11-15; Houston)
3/13 - Quarterfinals
1:30 p.m. (3) Alabama State vs. (6) Alcorn State.  Winner:  Alabama State
9 p.m. (4) Arkansas-Pine Bluff* vs. (5) Alabama A&M.  Winner:  Alabama A&M
3/14 - Semifinals
3:30 p.m. (2) Texas Southern vs. (3) Alabama State.  Winner:  Texas Southern
9:30 p.m. (8) Prairie View A&M vs. (5) Alabama A&M.  Winner:  Alabama A&M
3/15 - Finals
4:30 p.m. (ESPN2) (5) Alabama A&M vs. (2) Texas Southern.  Winner:  Texas Southern
*Arkansas-Pine Bluff is ineligible to compete in the NCAA Tournament for failing to meet the NCAA's APR requirements, but the school is allowed to participate in the SWAC Tournament.  If Arkansas-Pine Bluff wins the tournament, the team among the eligible teams that advances the furthest in the tournament will receive the conference's NCAA tournament bid.  If there is a tie (for example, all remaining tournament-eligible teams are eliminated in the same round), the automatic berth will go to the highest-seeded team.

WAC (March 13-15; Las Vegas)
3/13 – Quarterfinals
3 p.m. (1) Utah Valley vs. (8) Texas-Pan American.  Winner:  Utah Valley State
5:30 p.m. (4) UMKC vs. (5) Idaho.  Winner:  Idaho
9 p.m. (3) Chicago State vs. (6) Cal State Bakersfield.  Winner:  Chicago State
11:30 p.m. (2) New Mexico State vs. (7) Seattle.  Winner:  New Mexico State
3/14 – Semifinals
9 p.m. (1) Utah Valley State vs. (5) Idaho.  Winner:  Utah Valley State
11:30 p.m. (2) New Mexico State vs. (3) Chicago State.  Winner:  New Mexico State.
3/15 – Finals
10 p.m. (ESPNU) (1) Utah Valley State vs. (2) New Mexico State.  Winner:  New Mexico State

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