Friday, March 28, 2014

Some Elite Knowledge

Half of the Elite 8 is set.  I feel like I haven't written enough about college basketball this month, so here is some more.

The South and West regional finals are set.

South Region:  (1) Florida vs. (11) Dayton – Saturday 3/29 6:09 p.m. EST on TBS
Dayton took care of Stanford, clinching the Flyers' first Elite 8 since 1984 and putting them one step closer to their second Final Four and first since they lost to UCLA in the title game in 1967.

Meanwhile, Florida held off UCLA.  The Gators are playing for their 5th Final Four and first since winning it all in 2007.  

Florida is playing in its fourth Elite 8 in a row, which is the most since Kentucky went to five straight from 1995 to 1999 and only the sixth time that a team has gone to at least four Elite 8s in a row.  In the previous three years, Florida has failed to advance past the Elite 8, but history is on the Gators' side.  Each of the other five teams that have gone to four or more Elite 8s in a row have won at least one national title and gone to multiple Final Fours during their Elite 8 streak.  Here are the teams that have gone to four or more consecutive Elite 8s, the years of their streak, and their national title/runner-up/Final Four stats during their respective streaks)
-UCLA:  10 (1967-1976) (8 national titles; 10 Final Fours)
-Cincinnati:  5 (1959-1963) (2 national titles; 1 runner-up; 5 Final Fours)
-Duke:  5 (1988-1992) (2 national titles; 1 runner-up; 5 Final Fours)
-Kentucky:  5 (1995-1999) (2 national titles; 1 runner-up; 3 Final Fours)
-California:  4 (1957-1960) (1 national title; 1 runner-up; 2 Final Fours)
-Florida:  4 (2011-present) (zero national titles or Final Fours)

An interesting stat I saw this morning on SportsCenter was that an 11-seed has won the last two matchups with 1-seeds in the Elite 8, with George Mason beating UConn in 2006 and VCU beating Kansas in 2011.  Overall, 11-seeds are 3-2 in the Elite 8 (all games have been played against 1-seeds).  So, yes, I'm saying the Flyers have a chance.

West Region:  (1) Arizona vs. (2) Wisconsin – Saturday 3/29 8:49 p.m. EST on TBS
Arizona rallied to beat a pesky San Diego team, much to many of my brackets' chagrin.  The Wildcats will be seeking their 5th Final Four and first since losing to Duke in the title game in 2001.

Earlier in the night, Wisconsin waxed Baylor, setting up the only matchup between a 1- and 2-seed in the Elite 8.  This is as far as Bo Ryan has ever gotten (he also took Wisconsin to the Elite 8 in 2005).  The Badgers are looking for their 3rd Final Four appearance and first since their improbable run as an 8-seed in 2000, Dick Bennett's last year as head coach.  On their way to the Final Four that year, the Badgers upset 1-seed Arizona.  Will history repeat itself?  Well, will it?!

Tonight, we have the following matchups (in parentheses is the last time each school made it to the Elite 8):

Midwest Region (Indianapolis)
(2) Michigan (2013) vs. (11) Tennessee (2010) - 7:15 EST CBS
(4) Louisville (2013) vs. (8) Kentucky (2012) - 9:45 EST CBS

East Region (New York)
(3) Iowa State (2000) vs. (7) Connecticut (2011) - 7:27 EST CBS
(1) Virginia (1995) vs. (4) Michigan State (2010) - 9:57 EST CBS

Three Elite 8 Teams for Big Ten or SEC?
If Michigan and Michigan State both win tonight or if Kentucky and Tennessee both win tonight, the Big Ten or SEC will have three Elite 8 teams, which would be the 17th time a conference has had three Elite 8 teams (and second year in a row).

Here are the years in which a conference has had three or more Elite 8 teams since the NCAA Tournament began allowing more than two teams per conference in 1980.  As you can see, 8 of the 16 occurrences thus far were in the '80s, and only 5 times has the national champion come from a conference with three of more Elite 8 teams.
2013:  Big East (Louisville***, Marquette, Syracuse*)
2009:  Big East (Connecticut*, Louisville, Pitt, Villanova*)
2005:  Big Ten (Illinois**, Michigan State*, Wisconsin)
2003:  Big 12 (Kansas**, Oklahoma, Texas*)
2002:  Big 12 (Kansas*, Missouri, Oklahoma*)
2001:  Pac-10 (Arizona**, Stanford, USC)
2000:  Big Ten (Michigan State***, Purdue, Wisconsin*)
1992:  Big Ten (Indiana*, Michigan**, Ohio State)
1989:  Big East (Georgetown, Seton Hall**, Syracuse)
1988:  Big 8 (Kansas***, Kansas State, Oklahoma**)
1987:  Big East (Georgetown, Providence*, Syracuse**)
1986:  SEC (Auburn, Kentucky, LSU*)
1985:  ACC (Georgia Tech, North Carolina, North Carolina State)
1985:  Big East (Georgetown**, St. John's*, Villanova***)
1983:  ACC (North Carolina, North Carolina State***, Virginia)
1982:  Big East (Boston College, Georgetown**, Villanova)
*Advanced to Final Four
**Runner Up
***National Champion

ACC Futility, Sort Of
If Virginia fails to advance to the Final Four, it will mark the fourth year in a row that no team from the ACC has made it to the Final Four, and the first time since 1973-1976 that has happened.

If Virginia loses tonight to Michigan State, the ACC will have no teams in the Elite 8 for only the second time since the 1979-1980 season, which is by far the least of the six "major" conferences (ACC, Big 12, Big East, Big Ten, Pac-12, SEC) during that time span.  (I chose the 1979-1980 season because that is the first year the Big East was in existence.)

Here is the number of times each major conference has failed to have an Elite 8 team since the 1979-1980 season (not including this season):
1.  ACC:  2 (2003, 2006)
2.  Big East:  8 (1981, 1986, 1988, 1992-1994, 2000-2001)
3.  SEC:  10 (1982, 1985, 1988-1991, 2001-2002, 2008-2009)
4.  Big Ten: 13 (1982-1983, 1985-1986, 1988, 1991, 1995-1996, 1998, 2004, 2006, 2008, 2011)
5.  Big 12/Big 8:  14 (1980, 1982-1984, 1987, 1989-1990, 1992, 1997-1999, 2001, 2005, 2013)
6.  Pac-12/Pac-10:  18 (1981, 1983-1987, 1989-1991, 1993, 1996, 1999, 2000, 2004, 2009-2010, 2012-2013)

Over that same span, here is how the Final Four berths and national championships shake out among the major conferences.  As you could have guessed, the ACC's ability to consistently make it to the Elite 8 translates into Final Fours and national titles.

Final Fours:
1.  ACC:  29 (1981 (2), 1982-1984, 1986, 1988-1989, 1990 (2), 1991 (2), 1992-1995, 1997-2000, 2001 (2), 2002, 2004 (2), 2005, 2008-2010)
2.  Big Ten:  23 (1980 (2), 1981, 1987, 1989 (2), 1992 (2), 1993, 1997, 1999 (2), 2000 (2), 2001, 2002, 2005 (2), 2007, 2009, 2010, 2012, 2013)
3.  Big East:  20 (1982, 1984, 1985 (3), 1987 (2), 1989, 1996, 1999, 2003, 2004, 2007, 2009 (2), 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013 (2))
4.  SEC:  18 (1981, 1983, 1984, 1986, 1993, 1994 (2), 1995, 1996 (2), 1997, 1998, 2000, 2006 (2), 2007, 2011, 2012)
5.  Big 12/Big 8:  13 (1986, 1988 (2), 1991, 1993, 1995, 2002 (2), 2003 (2), 2004, 2008, 2012)
6.  Pac-12/Pac-10:  10 (1980, 1988, 1994, 1995, 1997, 1998, 2001, 2006, 2007, 2008)

National Championships:
1.  ACC:  10 (1982-1983, 1991-1993, 2001-2002, 2005, 2009-2010)
2.  Big East:  7 (1984-1985, 1999, 2003-2004, 2011, 2013)
3.  SEC:  6 (1994, 1996, 1998, 2006-2007, 2012)
4.  Big Ten:  4 (1981, 1987, 1989, 2000)
5 (tie).  Big 12/Big 8:  2 (1988, 2008)
5 (tie).  Pac-12/Pac-10:  2 (1995, 1997)


Okay, that's enough about college basketball for today.  Now get out there and have some fun.

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